Top-200 Hockey Players of All-Time - Round 2, Vote 6

[Professor What]

I'd personally rather leave the McDavid candidacy up to anyone. Colluding would do no good. And there are people who didn't even rank McDavid (I was one of them, though I'm open to reconsidering because the longevity line between McDavid, Stuart, Philipps and Bure is too small to consider the last three fair game and not the first one... especially with the first one being the significantly better player).

I agree that colluding would be a problem. It would undermine the integrity of what we're doing, and if that's the case, we might as well just stop, because it would become worthless.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Do you watch him play at all?

If those advance stats are saying his defensive play is horrendous, I don't buy it.

Yes

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Yes

And you feel his defensive play is horrendous?

 

[MXD]

McDavid's defensive without the puck play isn't, say, Alex Galchenyuk bad, but it's not exactly what I'd call good. Leading a counterattack isn't exactly defensive play.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Was waiting to see how early he'd pop up and I'm not surprised. Too early. He has 367 games played.

McDavid is horrendous defensively (some of that is Edmonton's style), is horrible on faceoffs, has zero playoff record, no longevity, and quite frankly hasn't even been the best hockey player on his own team the past year and a half. Yeah, I just said that and am sure it will elicit some yawns but I've been extremely impressed by Drai's abilities, especially considering his dominance AWAY from McDavid which is what some people used to bring him down with.

Will be interested to see how this plays out.

 

[Professor What]

Bure was in the league for 12 seasons. More seasons and games than Bobby Orr.

Bure also has his Soviet League play to consider. Granted, it was only 5 games, but he played in easily the second best league in the world as a 16-year-old. The next season, still just 17, he set a league record for goals by a rookie. His 18-year-old season was a disappointment by that standard, but the next season, he scored 35 goals and finished second in the league. Maybe that doesn't add a whole lot to some, but I think it has to count for something. I mean, the guy was playing high level professional hockey when he would have been in the 11th grade in North America.

 

[MXD]

Was waiting to see how early he'd pop up and I'm not surprised. Too early. He has 367 games played.

McDavid is horrendous defensively (some of that is Edmonton's style), is horrible on faceoffs, has zero playoff record, no longevity, and quite frankly hasn't even been the best hockey player on his own team the past year and a half. Yeah, I just said that and am sure it will elicit some yawns but I've been extremely impressed by Drai's abilities, especially considering his dominance AWAY from McDavid which is what some people used to bring him down with.

Will be interested to see how this plays out.

...But then again, we're asked to consider McDavid in the wake of Bure, Philipps and Stuart, neither of which has impressive longevity (and only Stuart having more than a slight claim at being the best player in the world at some point... about 120 years ago).

Hell, McDavid, to me, currently highlights how (too) early Bure has become available, because GOALS.

Meanwhile, Victor Hedman, who has more longevity than Bure at this point and ranks higher in the pecking order of hockey players at a given point, isn't up for voting.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

VsX summary

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	7 YEAR	10 YEAR
Adam Oates	100.0	95.9	93.3	86.7	85.4	85.3	83.5	79.1	76.7	75.7	90.0	86.2
Doug Bentley	101.4	98.1	95.0	87.3	81.1	76.8	66.7	63.6	48.5	48.1	86.6	76.7
Gilbert Perreault	95.0	90.5	89.1	84.6	81.7	80.0	79.3	74.4	73.3	67.9	85.7	81.6
Pavel Bure	100.0	98.9	95.8	89.2	76.7	74.3	61.4	51.7	50.5	28.8	85.2	72.7
Paul Kariya	94.4	91.5	90.8	90.0	80.2	77.9	69.8	66.7	63.3	61.3	84.9	78.6
Alex Delvecchio	96.7	88.5	83.3	83.1	82.1	80.7	79.1	79.0	78.6	77.6	84.8	82.9
Pavel Datsyuk	91.5	88.2	86.0	82.1	78.2	76.3	75.6	69.1	64.2	59.6	82.5	77.1
Connor McDavid	112.4	105.9	100.0	100.0	53.9						67.5	47.2
Guy Lapointe	72.4	62.0	58.2	57.1	51.9	48.9	47.4	45.0	38.5	21.8	56.9	50.3
Scott Niedermayer	62.6	62.1	60.5	59.4	53.6	44.0	43.0	40.4	38.3	37.5	55.0	50.2
Rod Langway	33.3	30.3	27.3	26.5	25.8	25.0	19.3	15.1	12.8	12.2	26.8	22.8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Since someone might ask - McDavid's VsX based on his five seasons to date (including his injury-shortened rookie campaign) is ~94, which puts him on par with Selanne, Ullman, Geoffrion and Schmidt. If we drop his rookie season and just look at his four best years, he's already in the the top 20 (ahead of Sakic, Bathgate, Malkin, Trottier, and Ovechkin). This excludes the in-progress 2021 season entirely (he's leading the league as of today).

I didn't bother posting Krutov's VsX, which would be based on a single, disappointing season.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Hart trophy summary (5% vote threshold)

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th+	Total
Connor McDavid	1		1		2			4
Doug Bentley		1	1	1				3
Rod Langway		1		2				3
Paul Kariya		1					2	3
Pavel Bure			1				1	2
Gilbert Perreault					1		1	2
Scott Niedermayer							2	2
Pavel Datsyuk			1					1
Adam Oates				1				1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Players who were eligble for the Hart, but never received non-trivial votes - Delvecchio, Lapointe

Players who weren't eligible for the Hart - Krutov (effectively - one NHL season), Phillips, Stuart

Note that two of Bentley's three placements happened during WWII.

McDavid was the last player with 4 years in the top five in Hart voting to become eligible.

Norris trophy summary (5% vote threshold)

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th+	Total
Rod Langway	2		1		2		1	6
Scott Niedermayer	1	2			1			4
Guy Lapointe		1	1	2				4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[MXD]

Bure also has his Soviet League play to consider. Granted, it was only 5 games, but he played in easily the second best league in the world as a 16-year-old. The next season, still just 17, he set a league record for goals by a rookie. His 18-year-old season was a disappointment by that standard, but the next season, he scored 35 goals and finished second in the league. Maybe that doesn't add a whole lot to some, but I think it has to count for something. I mean, the guy was playing high level professional hockey when he would have been in the 11th grade in North America.

As North American players can't legally play in the NHL or even the AHL at 16, there's no reason to give any weight to this.

 

[Professor What]

As North American players can't legally play in the NHL or even the AHL at 16, there's no reason to give any weight to this.

Understood, but how many would play in the NHL? Very, very few, including most of the very best. I don't think the AHL is a very apt comparison to the Soviet League.

 

[DitchMarner]

In McDavid's Hart season he led the NHL in expected plus/minus and was +27 and 16th in Selke voting, but since then his defensive play has regressed. I think he's capable of being decent defensively but is being utilized entirely as a one-way threat.

Connor McDavid Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Though this season he does have ridiculously good possession metrics in the small sample size so far. He is at 57.3% CF% and 14.6% CF rel%.

In a way, the fact that so many advanced stats are publicly available now will hurt him. How do we know that a guy like Perreault was not as much of a liability in terms of shots or chances against when he was on the ice? He could have been; we don't have the data to know whether he was or not. Although in his case, it has been detailed on this very site that at Even Strength, he made much less of a positive impact on goal differential than his teammates on the second line did.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Was waiting to see how early he'd pop up and I'm not surprised. Too early. He has 367 games played.

McDavid is horrendous defensively (some of that is Edmonton's style), is horrible on faceoffs, has zero playoff record, no longevity, and quite frankly hasn't even been the best hockey player on his own team the past year and a half. Yeah, I just said that and am sure it will elicit some yawns but I've been extremely impressed by Drai's abilities, especially considering his dominance AWAY from McDavid which is what some people used to bring him down with.

Will be interested to see how this plays out.

Considering his teammate won the Hart trophy last year, that's not saying much.

McDavid is bad on faceoffs.

His playoff record is not zero. 10 goal (18 points) in 17 games, +4

His career numbers for takeaways/giveaways in 376/315 ---- Drai's is 348/457

Career plus/minus for McDavid is +43 ------ Drai's -13

McDavid has blocked more shots in less games

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

And you feel his defensive play is horrendous?

Yes.

Though I'm not really sure how much it matters in the context of this project

 

[MXD]

Understood, but how many would? Very, very few, including most of the very best.

Hard to tell, and Bure only "played" in these games. He didn't star or anything.
No reason not to give some weight to his 90-91 season. Roughly the same we'd give to his teammate Kamensky (who, coincidentially, also played 6 games as a 16 years old), who also had a somewhat similar first season in the NHL.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Even though I didn't even have McDavid on my original list and I did have Kariya, I have to say that Kariya is the only player this round who really just has zero case to be voted in at this point.

 

[MXD]

Even though I didn't even have McDavid on my original list and I did have Kariya, I have to say that Kariya is the only player this round who really just has zero case to be voted in at this point.

Too similar to Bure to dismiss out of the hand, no?
(Of course, if Bure is also dismissed out of hand, Kariya is totally fair game)

 

[ImporterExporter]

I don't think McD is actually a terrible defensive player as it pertains to ability. I don't see him as much as some others do (west coast folks) but watching the Oilers when I can, some of the problem is their style of play. They put McD in a position where he's going to look poor in his own end. He's essentially used as a breakout force, which isn't surprising given his speed and all world ability. Having said that, I don't see him engage physically much. He just doesn't have an interest in consistently fighting for pucks, or going into the muck so to speak. He's not going to take important draws, and in the dot, he's quite poor, compared to other #1 C's. I do wonder how much Edmonton's dumpster fire organization is affecting him at this point.

I think the VsX chart really shows how limited he is in terms of longevity. He's amazing through 4 years offensively but drops like a rock after that. In a few years time, he'll be more than worthy, certainly of going inside the top 100, and likely well up that particular list.

Obviously I'm not a voter this go around, but I've been following quite closely (great job to every member so far) and I just can't in good conscious agree he's worthy of going yet. There are just too many knocks on him right now.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Too similar to Bure to dismiss out of the hand, no?

I feel like Kariya has all the same weaknesses as Bure, but he doesn't have the argument that goals are worth more than assists, and he doesn't have 1994.

 

[MXD]

I feel like Kariya has all the same weaknesses as Bure, but he doesn't have the argument that goals are worth more than assists, and he doesn't have 1994.

Fair enough. I'd say I probably agree as well about where Bure fits regarding Kariya; I'm just not sure the above can explain a 4-player gap.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I feel like Kariya has all the same weaknesses as Bure, but he doesn't have the argument that goals are worth more than assists, and he doesn't have 1994.

Bure's points per game are higher than Kariya, regular season and playoffs. Same for plus/minus.

 

[MXD]

Bure's points per game are higher than Kariya, regular season and playoffs. Same for plus/minus.

He also joined the league in a lower scoring environment, and actually played NHL hockey past the age of 31, which would tend to depress scoring levels.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

He also joined the league in a lower scoring environment, and actually played NHL hockey past the age of 31, which would tend to depress scoring levels.

Good points.

 

[Professor What]

Hard to tell, and Bure only "played" in these games. He didn't star or anything.
No reason not to give some weight to his 90-91 season. Roughly the same we'd give to his teammate Kamensky (who, coincidentially, also played 6 games as a 16 years old), who also had a somewhat similar first season in the NHL.

I'm not suggesting he was a star. A goal and an assist in two games was his stat line. That doesn't change the fact that most 18-year-olds aren't really physically ready to play in the NHL, or often even the AHL. Take another year off of that and make them 17, and that's exponentially more true. I mean, is Gretzky's ability to play in the WHA at 17 not one of the first concrete pieces of the puzzle to show the beast that he was going to become? No matter what you do in juniors, it doesn't reflect what Gretzky did in the pros, while a 17-year-old putting up 110 points in a a rival league to the NHL speaks volumes. Sixteen? That's even more exponential.

As for Kamensky? Yeah, playing at sixteen is still a big deal. But, it's worth pointing out that he went pointless in his games, and he didn't make CSKA Moscow either at that age either. His seventeen-year-old record is nothing compared to Bure's, and honestly, I don't see anything in his Soviet League record that's comparable to Bure other than the freakish ability to play with grown men at a young age. I can't see any reason to put any further weight into that comparison since Bure actually delivered on the promise far, far more than Kamensky ever did.

 

[The Macho King]

In McDavid's Hart season he led the NHL in expected plus/minus and was +27 and 16th in Selke voting, but since then his defensive play has regressed. I think he's capable of being decent defensively but is being utilized entirely as a one-way threat.

Connor McDavid Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Though this season he does have ridiculously good possession metrics in the small sample size so far. He is at 57.3% CF% and 14.6% CF rel%.

In a way, the fact that so many advanced stats are publicly available now will hurt him. How do we know that a guy like Perreault was not as much of a liability in terms of shots or chances against when he was on the ice? He could have been; we don't have the data to know whether he was or not. Although in his case, it has been detailed on this very site that at Even Strength, he made much less of a positive impact on goal differential than his teammates on the second line did.

16th in Selke voting means less than nothing. It means some Edmonton beat writers threw votes at him. Draisaitl received Selke votes last season and he is a black hole defensively.

McDavid is an odd inclusion here for active players when there are a few others with as good or better cases. But he has half the games of Bure, who rightly gets dinged for his longevity, so I'm intrigued to hear the arguments.