A Case for Grant Fuhr
1. Contemporary Opinion
Grant Fuhr is certainly one of the goalies with the biggest gaps between his reputation and the raw stats. Contemporary reporting seems to suggest that he was widely seen as the best goalie in the league from around the time of the Oilers' first Cup until near the end of the decade.
Now, I am a stats guy, and I would never make a case for a goalie entirely based on subjective factors, and it is always important to keep in the mind the strong likelihood of bias in favour of goalies on good teams (always a relevant factor for the starting netminder from a dynasty). But at the same time it is important to note that it is easier to second-guess goalies like Fuhr than those who played prior to the save percentage era, which I think is something to keep in mind in order to avoid possibly holding more recent netminders to a higher standard. I also think that Fuhr was definitely more talented than his stats suggest, and therefore deserving of at least some portion of his reputation gap.
2. The Impact of Injuries
It might not seem that Fuhr was injury-prone, considering that he is well-known for having a few seasons with extremely high GP, but if you want to see something impressive, take a look at Hockeygoalies.org's
Grant Fuhr page under the injuries tab, where there are 27 bullet points detailing the various injuries suffered during his career.
Many of these mishaps did not cause Fuhr to miss many games, but nevertheless had a clear impact on his performance. This makes sense, given that he was a goalie that relied heavily on his athleticism. There was a consistent pattern of Fuhr suffering an injury, returning to the lineup (almost definitely too early in nearly every case), struggling for a period of games, and then returning to his usual form. The typical recovery period was 10-15 games, and I chose 12 as a standard just to be consistent.
Here's the list of major injuries:
- Partially separated right shoulder, Dec 1981, missed 2 games
- Strained knee ligaments (required surgery), Dec 1984, missed 5 games
- Separated shoulder, Feb 1985, missed 8 games
- Bruised shoulder, Nov 1985, missed 10 games
- Unknown injury, Jan 1987, missed 8 games
- Cervical neck strain, Jan 1989, missed 1 game
- Appendectomy, Sep 1989, missed 6 games
- Reconstructive shoulder surgery, Dec 1989, out 3 months
Here's how Fuhr's looks from the start of his career through the 1991 playoffs, when you divide out those 12 game recovery segments from the rest of his career (playoffs and regular season games combined):
Period | GP | SA | SV | SV% | GSAA |
Healthy | 18 | 635 | 577 | 0.909 | 20.7 |
Shoulder injury | 12 | 368 | 320 | 0.870 | -2.4 |
Healthy | 77 | 2364 | 2082 | 0.881 | 14.1 |
Knee injury | 12 | 406 | 353 | 0.869 | -1.4 |
Healthy | 62 | 1913 | 1715 | 0.896 | 42.9 |
Shoulder injury | 12 | 388 | 335 | 0.863 | -4.5 |
Healthy | 25 | 734 | 658 | 0.896 | 16.0 |
Shoulder injury | 12 | 356 | 304 | 0.854 | -7.1 |
Healthy | 58 | 1734 | 1548 | 0.893 | 28.1 |
Unknown injury | 12 | 306 | 269 | 0.879 | -0.3 |
Healthy | 146 | 4009 | 3538 | 0.883 | 11.0 |
Neck injury | 12 | 354 | 307 | 0.867 | -4.2 |
Healthy | 23 | 690 | 616 | 0.893 | 9.5 |
Appendectomy | 12 | 287 | 251 | 0.875 | -1.8 |
Healthy | 6 | 185 | 165 | 0.892 | 2.0 |
Shoulder injury | 4 | 91 | 75 | 0.824 | -5.2 |
Healthy | 30 | 868 | 778 | 0.896 | 9.0 |
Healthy (total) | 445 | 13132 | 11677 | 0.889 | 153.2 |
Recovery (total) | 88 | 2556 | 2214 | 0.866 | -26.9 |
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3. Peak, Healthy, Motivated Grant Fuhr Was an Elite Goalie
You can see that Fuhr was generally .892 or better when healthy, which was very good in that era. I think he actually had a pretty impressive peak, considering that from 1983-84 to midway through the 1987-88 season, excluding injury recovery periods, Fuhr played 234 straight regular season and playoff games at .895, compared to a league average of .876 (an impressive 135.1 GSAA), and he did it while playing in the more offensive conference on a team with an inconsistent defensive effort (and that doesn't even count the 1987 Canada Cup).
Once upon a time, I was among those who questioned Fuhr's 1987-88 Vezina win, but now I think he probably deserved it. His first 45 games that season (.896) are probably in the running for the best 45 game stretch of the entire decade when you adjust for team defence. Fuhr then majorly dropped off in the second half (.853), but this came after the Oilers had long since assured themselves of a playoff spot (and with Fuhr playing far more games than anyone else did in that era). I don't think that playing more games at an average level makes you better than someone who plays fewer games at an elite level, but I'm actually pretty forgiving of someone's game falling off significantly in a bunch of meaningless games while taking on an extremely heavy workload, especially on a team somewhat notorious for chasing offensive stats during the regular season.
All this supports the claim that Fuhr was actually more talented than Andy Moog. If you look at measures of quality of competition (e.g. from Hockeygoalies.org), Fuhr faced significantly tougher opposition from 1981-82 to 1983-84, before the two faced similar competition overall between 1984-85 and 1986-87. There is also another weird split to bring up involving Moog and Fuhr in Edmonton:
1983-87:
Moog: .901 at home, .874 on the road
Fuhr: .879 at home, .884 on the road
This split even held up in the playoffs (Moog was .905/.836, Fuhr was .898/.909). A negative home/road split in that era was quite unusual, and makes you wonder about Edmonton possibly having differing styles of play at home, or whether Fuhr did actually lose some focus in blowout scenarios. I've only really looked at playoff performance-by-score metrics from that era, so I'm not entirely sure about some of these theories, but generally I'm more inclined to trust a goalie that is good on the road over a goalie that is only good at home. All in all I think it is clear that Fuhr's peak level was better than it seems from his performance record, and if I was coaching a team with him and Moog on it I'm pretty sure I'd start Fuhr in the playoffs too.
4. Adjusting for Conference Disparity
One thing that I think often gets overlooked from the 1980s is that it was a big advantage to be playing in the Wales Conference if you were a goalie or defenceman. From 1981-82 to 1989-90, 38 of the 45 teams that finished in the top 5 in the league in GA played in the Wales. Given that the Eastern teams were also better at shot prevention, I think this comes mostly from style of play differences rather than a difference in goaltending talent (the extra team in the Patrick Division forcing tighter competition for playoff spots is another possible factor). As a result, it perhaps shouldn't be too surprising that Wales Conference goalies took 76% of Vezina votes during that stretch. In that context, Fuhr's Vezina record looks quite strong. He had a total of 176 voting points over those 9 seasons, while all of the rest of his Campbell goalie peers combined managed just 232. Fuhr did have the advantage of racking up lots of wins on a talented Oilers team, so you could argue that was a big advantage in Vezina voting, but I think it's still important to note that his team context wasn't doing him a lot of favours otherwise. I think pretty much all the goalies playing out West were a bit better than their numbers suggested in that era, while the goalies out East likely weren't quite as good as they seemed.
In summary, there are good reasons to believe that Grant Fuhr was more talented than his performance record suggests, and his reputation as the best goalie of the 1980s may actually be deserved. I also think that even if you rate the 1980s as relatively weak historically when it comes to goalies (which is entirely justifiable), you should still think twice before voting in too many goalies from other eras that already have much stronger representation. If you're strictly an accomplishments-based voter, some of these arguments may not affect your opinion and I understand that, but these are at least some of the reasons to consider Fuhr here.