Sidney the Kidney
One last time
- Jun 29, 2009
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Everything I wrote was with the OP in mind. I say that within 5 years they will be in decline, but the decline will have started well before that. They will still be good enough to lead a great team in the playoffs, but my problem with that is that they lack the young talent to make up for their decline. That's why I compared them to Chicago. All it would take for the Penguins to have massive problems is for Crosby or Malkin to take a step back like Keith and Seabrook did for the Hawks. They are still good players for the Hawks, but just not as dominant as they once were. The big loss for them is the slight downgrade in Keith. The problem is no one to take the pressure off of him
I'd argue the biggest problem with the Hawks was how much guys like Toews and Seabrook are earning hampering them from being able to add depth. The Pens don't have any albatross contracts unless you think Crosby or Malkin will drop from 90+ point players to 50 point players within the next couple of years.
Again, it could happen due to injury, but when is the last time two fully healthy players of Crosby and Malkin's stature declined in their mid thirties to the point where they are no longer top line players? Even if they both decline to "only" 75 point players, that's still better than a lot of teams have down the middle.
I also think you overrate the lack of talent outside of their core group. Guentzel's proven himself to be a playoff beast, Murray's won two Cups as the starter and has put up historically good numbers along the way, and both are under 25. And their depth guys like Rust, Maatta, Dumoulin, Schultz, etc. are all in their early to mid-twenties.
Washington literally just won their first Cup with a core group including a 32 year old Ovechkin (who doesn't seem to be declining), a 30 year old Backstrom, and a 31 year old Oshie. San Jose's still considered a contender with a core that's even older than the Pens.
I'm not saying it's a guarantee they keep winning Cups -- it's never easy, no matter how old the core -- but I also think you're envisioning a decline in Crosby and Malkin that would be quite dramatic and would be a rare thing for elite players for the Pens to not be a good team over the next 5 seasons.