Friedman: Too many teams trying to sell, not enough teams buying

[meefer]

This interview with Jim Nill illustrates the mindset most "buying" GMs probably have right now:

"Things are going to happen around the League as the days wind down to the deadline," Nill said. "It's just that the prices -- at least to me -- are still very high.

From our point of view, I'm not actively looking, so it's kind of a moot point to me. I'm not giving up a high draft pick or a top prospect for a rental. I'm just not doing that. I like where our team is at, and I'm not at the stage where we're going to do that."

Most teams probably don't think they're in a strong enough position to mortgage the future, and feel that what they have already is good enough for now.

I'm wondering if the days of paying a high price for a player at the TDL are coming to a close. Just speculation, but it appears to me that the pipeline of kids that have been succeeding in the NHL the past few years, and I suspect will continue to come into the league, possess a higher skill set and potential for success than those who teams are willing to move at the TDL. Teams want to be competitive for a number of years, and it's only a few teams that feel confident enough to trade for the 'difference maker' because of the desire to not lose the longer window of competitiveness vs the all in philosophy. Youth has the benefit of being cost controlled for a long time. An UFA or a player with but 1.5 years left and needing to be re-signed at a high price tag is less compelling these days when a RFA is being wrapped up at high dollars.

I think the 27-30 year old player is going to have to get used to getting a smaller contract in the years to come. Cap space is starting to lean towards youngsters.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Well a lot of the prices sound high but as things move deals will be done. I'm a bit surprised there hasn't been much on some of the bigger names though, usually 1 goes a few weeks before in a shrewd deal.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

I mean u named almost 1/4 the of the league

I wouldn't consider 6-7 teams a "pretty big number" of teams.

 

[StreetHawk]

Well then you lower your price tag...

Sellers are CHI, EDM, VAN, AZ, BUF, OTT, MON, DET.

Florida still alive, but they need to win their games in hand to get back into the mix and legitimately have a chance.

I think the prices are very high for a rental like Kane, Nash, etc.

With the parity in the NHL, I don't think teams want to gamble that much for a rental.

Blues, rumoured for a while to make a splash are 1 point ahead of the Ducks for a WC spot now. Calgary is 3 points in back of the Blues. Minny has 2 games in hand and are in the 2nd WC spot. So, they are a team that may opt to dial it back on the trade front with respects to making a big splash.

So much parity now that there are very few series right now where you would say that the lower seed is a massive underdog.

Only one that comes to mind would be the Atlantic winner against the WC seed. That's probably the highest probability of the higher seed winning the series.

 

[Samuel Culper III]

I'm wondering if the days of paying a high price for a player at the TDL are coming to a close. Just speculation, but it appears to me that the pipeline of kids that have been succeeding in the NHL the past few years, and I suspect will continue to come into the league, possess a higher skill set and potential for success than those who teams are willing to move at the TDL. Teams want to be competitive for a number of years, and it's only a few teams that feel confident enough to trade for the 'difference maker' because of the desire to not lose the longer window of competitiveness vs the all in philosophy. Youth has the benefit of being cost controlled for a long time. An UFA or a player with but 1.5 years left and needing to be re-signed at a high price tag is less compelling these days when a RFA is being wrapped up at high dollars.

I think the 27-30 year old player is going to have to get used to getting a smaller contract in the years to come. Cap space is starting to lean towards youngsters.

Overall I actually agree with this. I believe the draft is becoming less and less of a crap shoot. Scouting is better and more advanced than ever but also, all of the hockey factories that produce these top prospects are becoming more exact and scientific ever. I feel the last 5 years in particular have really exhibited this and that trend will only continue. Overall, I wouldn’t be surprised if TDL prices go down and that big UFA contract becomes a thing of the past, in favor of the huge second contract that guys like Draisaitl and Eichel have gotten.

 

[Captain97]

I wouldn't consider 6-7 teams a "pretty big number" of teams.

I mean 16 teams make the playoffs then 7 (almost half of the playoff teams) are contenders.

 

[StreetHawk]

Overall, I wouldn’t be surprised if TDL prices go down and that big UFA contract becomes a thing of the past, in favor of the huge second contract that guys like Draisaitl and Eichel have gotten.

That's kind of the NFL model. The 2nd contract is when guys get paid there when they are between 25-27. That 2nd deal takes them to age 30-32. At that point, the original team has to decide if they want to commit that kind of money to a player whom they have seen the best years from. That player generally ends up leaving as a free to fill a hole that another team has for a short term 2-3 years.

If the NHL is serious about reducing the contract term from 8/7 down to 6/5, that could lead to more movement in the future. If the 2nd contract take a top end player to age 27/28, then another 6 year term is only to 33/34, vs 35/36. Would still have 1 good contract left at that point.

 

[Paladin2799]

That's kind of the NFL model. The 2nd contract is when guys get paid there when they are between 25-27. That 2nd deal takes them to age 30-32. At that point, the original team has to decide if they want to commit that kind of money to a player whom they have seen the best years from. That player generally ends up leaving as a free to fill a hole that another team has for a short term 2-3 years.

If the NHL is serious about reducing the contract term from 8/7 down to 6/5, that could lead to more movement in the future. If the 2nd contract take a top end player to age 27/28, then another 6 year term is only to 33/34, vs 35/36. Would still have 1 good contract left at that point.

You would start to see proper length terms at people who are older too, 2-3 years instead of these monster 5-6 years.

 

[Jayan]

Introduce buy one get one free option.

Buy McD or Nash, get Brendan Smith for free (0% retained).

 

[Halla]

Teams like Pittsburgh, Toronto etc who have needs but don't have to make a move is part of the problem here honestly.

pretty much. leafs could use another C..but dont need one. they would love a top 4 d...but arent selling the future to get one

 

[Whileee]

Sellers are CHI, EDM, VAN, AZ, BUF, OTT, MON, DET.

Florida still alive, but they need to win their games in hand to get back into the mix and legitimately have a chance.

I think the prices are very high for a rental like Kane, Nash, etc.

With the parity in the NHL, I don't think teams want to gamble that much for a rental.

Blues, rumoured for a while to make a splash are 1 point ahead of the Ducks for a WC spot now. Calgary is 3 points in back of the Blues. Minny has 2 games in hand and are in the 2nd WC spot. So, they are a team that may opt to dial it back on the trade front with respects to making a big splash.

So much parity now that there are very few series right now where you would say that the lower seed is a massive underdog.

Only one that comes to mind would be the Atlantic winner against the WC seed. That's probably the highest probability of the higher seed winning the series.

NYR sent letters to their fans saying they were selling, so you might want to add them to your list.

 

[chethejet]

Not many teams will spend to the cap next year. With a 80 million expected cap, many teams have 15 to 30 million of cap space and the floor is now in sight of many teams. I do think teams are not going all in on contracts for older players of term. When you have to spend 5 to 6 million for a decent wing or D man, the alternatives look pretty good. Stars will be paid, but the trend change for draft and development as the supplement to the organization is cost effective and contract controllable. Owners see the real economics of risk reward and risk is becoming more important.

 

[BodaciousBeefBazooka]

If teams want a player bad enough, they will pay the price.

Not necessarily. That's flawed logic. There is a fine line I think a GM will pay that won't put a teams current position in jeopardy or hurt the future of the team for making a dumb move. I'm sure general managers salivate over particular players on a team but they won't pull the trigger unless it makes sense for the team presently and the future. It's common sense really.

 

[bukwas]

There sure are a lot of big names out there.
Doubt many of them move but it's fun to speculate.

 

[Henkka]

There sure are a lot of big names out there.
Doubt many of them move but it's fun to speculate.

They should just shuffle the pack for entertainment.

 

[BoltSTH]

The number of trades is also reduced by the number of NMC and NTC handed out over the last few years, to players that are not core pieces, but to get a slightly lower cap hit.

 

[BrokenFace]

i doubt he could lead a team to the playoffs/cup

He actually did lead a team to the playoffs though. He dragged the Leafs to the playoffs when they had no business being there.

Scoring wingers are treated like lepers around here.

 

[AmericanDream]

The number of trades is also reduced by the number of NMC and NTC handed out over the last few years, to players that are not core pieces, but to get a slightly lower cap hit.

this is so true, it has changed the game bigtime...I hate these NTC/NMC contracts, they need to stop handing them out like candy.