Tom Brady, the greatest to ever play

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interesting argument

I'm trying to put that into Broncos terms. Manning wasn't around his entire career here, but I'd venture to guess a lot of older fans would tell you Elway was better than Manning. If Peyton was here his entire career though it'd probably be different. Bad example I guess.

I get what you're saying, but you kind of nail it in the end. If the 49ers took Rodgers and the Packers were like the post-Elway Broncos or post-Marino Dolphins, I'd understand the Favre love, but here you have a career-long Packer who is clearly better than Favre, it makes absolutely no sense to me.
 

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JordanStaal#1Fan
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My opinion is no secret, but at no point have I tried to argue for it. The rest of the thread, your contributions excluded, is a bunch of guys both arguing an opinion and being unable to back it up.

Actually, considering your opinion, have you even backed it up? You've went to great lengths to show they're statistically nearly-identical, that doesn't exactly back up Brady.

I said that in order to completely back it up, I would have to conduct a more complex analysis to include guys from earlier eras and a guy like Rodger that came in after the "harder" rules.

I said that I have Brady above Manning and Brees because not only he is their equal statistically, but he accomplished more/won more.

However, even though Brady is obviously my favourite, I cannot positively conclude he is superior to Montana or Rodgers and even Marino (I highly value winning so I am more meh about Marino, but he might be the best passer of all time, so he gotta be considered) without deeper analysis. I believe he is, but I haven't demonstrated it.
 
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I said that in order to completely back it up, I would have to conduct a more complex analysis to include guys from earlier eras and a guy like Rodger that came in after the "harder" rules.

I said that I have Brady above Manning and Brees because not only he is their equal statistically, but he accomplished more/won more.

However, even though Brady is obviously my favourite, I cannot positively conclude he is superior to Montana or Rodgers and even Marino (I highly value winning so I am more meh about Marino, but he might be the better passer of all time, so he gotta be considered) without deeper analysis. I believe he is, but I haven't demonstrated it.

Right, and like I've said all along, why is "winning" a factor at all? A lot of claims that a QB highly influences wins, with nothing to back it up. If anything, the evidence might suggest the opposite. There are 31 Super Bowl winning QBs, and what, half of them weren't even particularly good? Or even regular season wins, where, for example, Big Ben is 8th all time despite not being particularly good (or Favre being tied for first at the moment, woof).

No one (rightfully) gives a crap about pitcher wins or goalie wins, why QBs? In a given game I'd argue both positions have way more control over whether or not their team wins, and it's still not all that much. Just seems weird.

You also kind of betray yourself when you talk about Marino. It's impossible to compare, but despite perhaps being the greatest passer, he might not be in the conversation at greatest QB(passer) because his team sucked? Think about it, it's completely insane.
 

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JordanStaal#1Fan
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If Brady had won only one, I would agree that winning would be meaningless. He won 5. 10 years between 3 and 4. When you are that succesful, it has to count.

If I were to do a statistical analysis of Marino vs Brady and Marino was significantly more productive, I would have to go with him despite the lack of team success. As I said many times before, winning is (and to me has to be) the diffenriator between two similarly efficient/productive player. If Marino is similar to Brady, Manning and Brees statistically, I will place him 4th among that group. If he is significantly superior, I will have to discount the lack of team success and have him first. I called him best passer not best QB because I don't think he had the decision making skills of Brady and Manning. He didn't do as much before the snap as them. He had a better arm and could throw better than them hence perhaps the best/most beautiful passer and not necessarily the best QB. That can easily be argued though. My eyes can lie ;)

I highly value winning even if it is mainly a team thing because, well, it is the goal of the game. QB is the most important position on the field and have the most influence on the outcome. Mediocre QBs can win with superior defense. Crap QBs who cannot managed a game will cripple even a great defense. Great QBs can put very meh teams in contention. Should winning be the ultimate measure? Probably not. Should it count and help differientiate similar players? I think so. Could that be debated? Sure thing. Constructive debates are fun.
 

Bonzai12

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It's such a difficult argument. Not all "wins" can be directly attributed to a QB. Not that simple. Trent Dilfer won a SB, so is he great? I don't think he had almost anything to do with that win. As a Broncos fan I will tell you the last SB wasn't really Peyton's doing. Hell - even if you asked Elway I think he'd be the first to admit that Denver doesn't win those two SB's without Terrell Davis, a great OL and a pretty dang good defense.
 

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JordanStaal#1Fan
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It's such a difficult argument. Not all "wins" can be directly attributed to a QB. Not that simple. Trent Dilfer won a SB, so is he great? I don't think he had almost anything to do with that win. As a Broncos fan I will tell you the last SB wasn't really Peyton's doing. Hell - even if you asked Elway I think he'd be the first to admit that Denver doesn't win those two SB's without Terrell Davis.

I do agree which is why I brought up volume.

Elway got there 5 times (3x with meh teams). Won two at the end with a lot of help. He still was.highly successful.

Manning reached 4, won 2. He did win a lot too.

Dilfer won once riding one of the best defenses of all time.

Winning counts, but it does have to be put in context. Bradshaw.won four, no one will bring him up as GOAT. Marino didn't win one, has been part of the discussion for a long time; lack of a ring will ultimately be brought up to justify ranking.others above him. As I said, it counts, but it isn't everything. It is the great differentiator. Brady has the numbers, the longevity and he won the most. It isn't only about winning IMO. Too many people only bring up the rings though.

But yeah, I agree, can't be the only measure.
 
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If Brady had won only one, I would agree that winning would be meaningless. He won 5. 10 years between 3 and 4. When you are that succesful, it has to count.

If I were to do a statistical analysis of Marino vs Brady and Marino was significantly more productive, I would have to go with him despite the lack of team success. As I said many times before, winning is (and to me has to be) the diffenriator between two similarly efficient/productive player. If Marino is similar to Brady, Manning and Brees statistically, I will place him 4th among that group. If he is significantly superior, I will have to discount the lack of team success and have him first. I called him best passer not best QB because I don't think he had the decision making skills of Brady and Manning. He didn't do as much before the snap as them. He had a better arm and could throw better than them hence perhaps the best/most beautiful passer and not necessarily the best QB. That can easily be argued though. My eyes can lie ;)

I highly value winning even if it is mainly a team thing because, well, it is the goal of the game. QB is the most important position on the field and have the most influence on the outcome. Mediocre QBs can win with superior defense. Crap QBs who cannot managed a game will cripple even a great defense. Great QBs can put very meh teams in contention. Should winning be the ultimate measure? Probably not. Should it count and help differientiate similar players? I think so. Could that be debated? Sure thing. Constructive debates are fun.

But why does it have to count? It's great if you're that player, and the decade between wins is cool, but it's hardly evidence of anything. Brady's a common denominator, and so is Belichick and so is having a championship calibre team. Even just looking at the last two, if Seattle runs the ball and scores, if Atlanta runs the ball and kicks a field goal, two instances completely out of Brady's hands yet could have monumentally affected his career? Makes zero sense to me.

I too thought for the longest time that winning had to count for something, but the more I thought about it, I could never come up with a reason why.

Brady's kind of a great example of why it's flawed to look at wins. Not because I'm saying he's a game manager system QB, but when you look at it more closely, it's easy to see how he benefitted from being on great team. He has a playoff record of 8-5 having a sub 80 QB rating. 7 AFC Championship wins, he was bad or mediocre in 4 of them. So maybe he just has some innate quality that makes him win games, or maybe he's routinely on great teams that carry him when he has an off night.
 
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It's such a difficult argument. Not all "wins" can be directly attributed to a QB. Not that simple. Trent Dilfer won a SB, so is he great? I don't think he had almost anything to do with that win. As a Broncos fan I will tell you the last SB wasn't really Peyton's doing. Hell - even if you asked Elway I think he'd be the first to admit that Denver doesn't win those two SB's without Terrell Davis, a great OL and a pretty dang good defense.

Suck isn't the right word, but half of the Super Bowl winning QBs kind of suck. That's why I firmly believe it means nothing, there's just no correlation there. Early on in the thread someone brought up that QBs in football are more important than centers in hockey, and I definitely think that's true, but there's honestly more correlation between 1Cs and championships than there is with QBs. Doesn't mean a lot, but kind of interesting.
 

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JordanStaal#1Fan
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But why does it have to count? It's great if you're that player, and the decade between wins is cool, but it's hardly evidence of anything. Brady's a common denominator, and so is Belichick and so is having a championship calibre team. Even just looking at the last two, if Seattle runs the ball and scores, if Atlanta runs the ball and kicks a field goal, two instances completely out of Brady's hands yet could have monumentally affected his career? Makes zero sense to me.

I too thought for the longest time that winning had to count for something, but the more I thought about it, I could never come up with a reason why.

Brady's kind of a great example of why it's flawed to look at wins. Not because I'm saying he's a game manager system QB, but when you look at it more closely, it's easy to see how he benefitted from being on great team. He has a playoff record of 8-5 having a sub 80 QB rating. 7 AFC Championship wins, he was bad or mediocre in 4 of them. So maybe he just has some innate quality that makes him win games, or maybe he's routinely on great teams that carry him when he has an off night.

See that's the thing. Brady could easily be 7-0 or 1-6 in the SB (39 wasn't a nail biter, the Pats were in control most of the game). Doesn't change how great he has been for how long he has been. We agree here, I guess.

Manning is 14-13 in the playoffs. Change a few plays here and there and I guess things could be completely different. Also doesn't change how successful he has been over a very long period of time. Manning's playoffs numbers are on par with Brady. Brees's are superior to both, yet, no one (except you to your credit) mentions him. He only played in 11 playoff games though, the sample size is significantly different.

So, considering they have nearly identical per game numbers, how do we separate them? Or, most importantly, should we try to separate them? I mean, it gives us great insightful discussions from time to time and is rather fun, but does it really matter and can it really be objectively determined? I guess not. I guess it depends on what one values. When it is that close, I guess it will always end up being somewhat subjective. Of course, now, there seems to be a consensus based on the 5 rings. But, with distance, people might change their mind. I can live with that as I can live with people saying winning isn't a good measure. I think it has to be factored in as it is the ultimate goal, but I will gladly conceed how flawed it can be.

Now, back to Brady.

The ironic thing with Brady is that in 2001, he was totally a game manager who got carried to a championship. He did what he needed to do when he needed to do it, minimized mistakes and had that one clutch drive at the end. Outside of that, yes, he was pedestrian.

2003 and 2004, he was much better but I wouldn't say he was elite. He was close, perhaps top 5 in the league, but not trully above the field yet. To me, he really became elite in 2006. He had crap weapons and a not-as-good-as-before D and was one drop away from beating the Colts in Indy in the AFCGG. That being said, Manning had a legendary 2nd half and the Colts totally deserved to win.

From 2006 on, Brady has steadily been elite (2007, 2010 and perhaps this year being his best years). I would be curious to see how his per game averages compare to Manning's from 2006 to 2015... or maybe 2014 to leave out Manning's decline year and have a better view of their primes. At the same time, it would be unfair to Manning as he was elite prior to 2006. Comparing them over their entire body of work gives a much better picture.

I mean, let's be honest, at the end of the day, you cannot go wrong with either of them. Or Montana, or Marino, or Elways, or Unitas, or Tarkinton, or Rodgers, or Brees. I am not a big Favre fan, but maybe him too.
 
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Bonzai12

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I go back and forth whether Brady is the GOAT but I do truly believe BB is the GOAT defensive head coach. Tommy's had a lot of help.

So did Montana though, in both Rice and Walsh.
 
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I go back and forth whether Brady is the GOAT but I do truly believe BB is the GOAT defensive head coach. Tommy's had a lot of help.

So did Montana though, in both Rice and Walsh.

Yeah I hate BB and at the same time can't argue with any of that. Wasn't around for Walsh but he's unquestionably the greatest coach I've seen.

And yeah, Staalfan nailed it with the last paragraph. Can't go wrong, that's why I'm trying my best to stay out of the comparisons. They're all so great and it's so time consuming, it's trade deadline time, not enough time to waste on both ;)
 

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JordanStaal#1Fan
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I go back and forth whether Brady is the GOAT but I do truly believe BB is the GOAT defensive head coach. Tommy's had a lot of help.

So did Montana though, in both Rice and Walsh.

Brady wouldn't have developped as he did without the structure he was put in. BB wouldn't have been as successful without Brady as the embodiement of said structure. Perhaps Manning would have been better than Brady under the same circumstances. I think he has the smarts, the work ethic and the leadership to succeed in Belichick's disciplinarian structure. Plus, I think he had more god-given abilities.

BB's not only a defensive genius, he understood that in order to be successful, not matter the business, you need a strong organizational culture. He also understands that in order for that culture to be successful, you need to lead be example and have your key leaders buy in and be ambassadors/enforcers of the culture. Brady is one, the main one. Guys like Malloy, Bruschi, Seymour and Brown all were. Just like Edelman, Hightower and Butler are now.

Very important as well, he understands that he will only be as successful as his players make him. He says it all the time, it is a players game. You can have the best schemes in the world, if you do not have the right guys to execute them OR if the guys don't buy in, it won't work. He is also more than willing to adjust his strategy. He understands each opponent is different and has to be attacked differently. His teams' identity is that though they have basic concepts, they are very flexible. That's also a sign of a great business leader. You have a structure, you have basic principles, but you can adjust to change and most importantly you PREPARE for change.

He also understood that it was a business and that you have to manage scarce ressources efficiently. That led him to choose depth over top end physical talent and, most importantly, to go after specific type of individuals that would fit his culture and maximize the team's production. Why pay 10M for a guy that gets stats but doesn't make your scheme more effecient? Why draft a guy who can't handle complex schemes or play in multiple formation... even if he has off the charts measurables? That's the Patriots Way (hell, that's what any good business school will teach you about management). Strong culture, right recruitment (talent matters, but you need to identify and nurture/develop the RIGHT talent) and good cap management (good allocation of scarce ressources). That's, above all else, the real genius of Bill Belichick.

Why other people cannot apply that? Most football people understand football, not business. Many football teams are owned by people who see them as personal toys and are therefore not managed as businesses. And many others are just plain bad business people. Belichick, IMO, masters football, business and people. I am pretty sure BB could be a very successful CEO if he wanted to. Then again, his football knowledge is his main expertise. He would need similar knowledge of another field to be AS successful.

TL;DR: Belichick is a skilled manager in the business sense of the term.
 
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I think BB and Manning are both way too controlling to work all that well together. I guess if they were on the same page about everything, but that basically never happens.

Manning was allowed to become controlling. Once you gain power, you don't give it back easily. If BB had Manning from the start, he think it would have worked out. Maybe I don't know enough about Manning as a person to make that analysis, though.
 
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Manning was allowed to become controlling. Once you gain power, you don't give it back easily. If BB had Manning from the start, he think it would have worked out. Maybe I don't know enough about Manning as a person to make that analysis, though.

He was obviously allowed all his control but I do think that's just how he is. I remember reading an article(maybe MMQB) where SI held a dinner for him and he was vetoing parts of the menu. It's not just football, I think he's just a controlling guy.

Probably why he isn't Colts GM right now, come to think of it.
 

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I think BB and Manning are both way too controlling to work all that well together. I guess if they were on the same page about everything, but that basically never happens.

We can agree on something!

Manning is 14-13 in the playoffs. Change a few plays here and there and I guess things could be completely different. Also doesn't change how successful he has been over a very long period of time. Manning's playoffs numbers are on par with Brady. Brees's are superior to both, yet, no one (except you to your credit) mentions him. He only played in 11 playoff games though, the sample size is significantly different.

I mean, let's be honest, at the end of the day, you cannot go wrong with either of them. Or Montana, or Marino, or Elways, or Unitas, or Tarkinton, or Rodgers, or Brees. I am not a big Favre fan, but maybe him too.

Manning has the most playoff loses too IIRC.

& you may not be a Favre fan but he is far from a "maybe him too" in the context of your post. He is unquestionably in the discussion for 3-5 in top 5 QBs ever, especially considering you threw Brees name out.

IMO it goes Brady, Montana then it can go any order between Manning/Favre/Unitas/Elway/Marino. They are the top tier.
 

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JordanStaal#1Fan
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I feel that Favre is as overrated as Brees is underrated. However, I haven't "quantified" that feeling. I guess I would have to look at the numbers more carefully.

I am pretty sure I am negatively influenced by his last few years and all the media narratives (good and bad) about him. If I were to look at production, I am pretty sure he would be top 10, perhaps top 5.
 

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Not when you lead the league in interceptions and cost your team repeatedly in the playoffs. He blew two NFC title games.
 

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JordanStaal#1Fan
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if you ask Pro Football reference, they have Favre 2nd to Manning in some value ratings

If you are referring to the Weighted career AV, they have Manning 1st with 177 and Brady 2nd with 164. Favre is 6th with 156.

They define Weighted career AV as:

At the top of every player's PFR page, you will see "Weighted Career AV" and a ranking since 1950. This is Doug's way of balancing peak production against raw career totals; for each player, he computes the following weighted sum of seasonal AV scores:

100% of the player's best season, plus 95% of his 2nd-best season, plus 90% of his 3rd-best season, plus 85% of his 4th-best season, ....

Source: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html

It gives a pretty good ranking, but I don't like how he weights his metric. Why would a player BEST season count for more? Anyway, I would have to read more of the blog entries to trully understand.
 

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