Today's Slapshot Jets updated top 5 prospects

[ComplexChris]

Just saw this. Nice article!!!

 

[Mud Turtle]

Oh, wow -- that's a tough question. I usually steer away from saying which kids will NOT make the NHL in my estimation. I pretty much want the best for all of these talented players.

What I can do is tell you which guys I think are can't-miss:

I firmly believe Connor, Ehlers, Morrissey and Roslovic are all all-star caliber talents, so there's four.

I think Harkins, Hellebuyck and Petan are can't miss as well. That's seven.

Adding in players that I would be shocked if they didn't have at least some success at the NHL level? Comrie, Kostalek, Lemieux, Kosmachuk, Spacek, Copp and De Leo. I like Jamie Phillips a lot too, but it's tougher to gauge goalies at this age. So let's say another eight.

There are more guys in Winnipeg's system that have a shot, but like I said, I'm uncomfortable talking about why kids might not make it. So, let's say I think there are at least 15 legit NHL prospects in the Winnipeg system. I hope I answered your question to your satisfaction.

YES! Thanks for taking a stab at that. Much appreciated.
I'm assuming the league average of players that would make it from the top 20 would probably be 5 or 6?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah unfortunately a number of our "great prospects" will likely fizzle out. That being said, I think at least our top 5 will be NHL regulars for sure.

I'm a little more optimistic than that but it is almost inevitable that there will be some unhappy surprises.

 

[garret9]

Generally speaking, team's gain 1-3 NHL players per draft.

 

[Whileee]

Generally speaking, team's gain 1-3 NHL players per draft.

That's a huge range, actually. Mean? My guess is that 2 or more beats the average.

 

[garret9]

That's a huge range, actually. Mean? My guess is that 2 or more beats the average.

IIRC mean was in the ~1.7 range. Can't remember.

It's very rare to get 0 or to get >3.

 

[Mud Turtle]

IIRC mean was in the ~1.7 range. Can't remember.

It's very rare to get 0 or to get >3.

2013 Entry 13 1 Josh Morrissey D Prince Albert Raiders [WHL]
2013 Entry 43 2 Nicolas Petan C Portland Winterhawks [WHL]
2013 Entry 59 2 Eric Comrie G Tri-City Americans [WHL]
2013 Entry 84 3 Jimmy Lodge C Saginaw Spirit [OHL]
2013 Entry 91 3 J.C. Lipon R Kamloops Blazers [WHL]
2013 Entry 104 4 Andrew Copp C U. of Michigan [CCHA]
2013 Entry 114 4 Jan Kostalek D Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]
2013 Entry 127 5 Tucker Poolman D Omaha Lancers [USHL]
2013 Entry 190 7 Brenden Kichton D Spokane Chiefs [WHL]
2013 Entry 194 7 Marcus Karlstrom D AIK Jrs. (Sweden)

So from 2013, which I've always suggested would be transformational for the Jets, we likely have a few can't misses...(players already knocking on the door).
Morrissey
Petan
Copp

Likely to make it: Kostalek, Lipon as a 4th line disturber who can pitch in with some offense.

So that gives us 5 from this draft.

A player who will likely get some injury call ups but who may not ever be a full time player: Kichton.

Lodge is a wildcard. Maybe he puts it all together and those flashes become commonplace. Right now I'd say no.

Comri's a goalie and voodoo is too tough to predict.

Poolman probably has a real good shot if he keeps improving at the pace he is but too early to tell yet. Late, late bloomer.

And I was really impressed with Karlstrom at the development camp but one development camp does not a career make.

So I'd say 5 PLUS one other from the lesser group. I wonder if six players from one draft would set a record as the best draft ever for any team?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

IIRC mean was in the ~1.7 range. Can't remember.

It's very rare to get 0 or to get >3.

2 players/year is roughly what is required for equilibrium. Weaker players fall out the bottom and better players age out. Few undrafted players make it. That is only a rough number but since fractions of players are hard to find it should be pretty good. At 2 per year then we are just replacing existing players. We are improving if the 2 coming in are better than the 2 leaving or if we can average a little more that 2.

 

[scelaton]

IIRC mean was in the ~1.7 range. Can't remember.

It's very rare to get 0 or to get >3.

I have estimated two players per draft to mark a successful drafting team, such that, on average, there would be a complete turnover (12F+6D+2G) every 10 years. Obviously this does not account for many variables, but I find it a nice working premise.
On that basis, the Jets will only have room for 10 players from the 2011-2015 drafts, of which 3 are spots are already taken, in Scheif, Lowry and Trouba. That leaves 7 spots open, for which Ehlers, Petan, Helle, Morrissey, Connor, Roslovic and Harkins are the frontrunners.
There is, theoretically, no room for anyone else.
Thinking this way provides a reality check for those thinking our top 15 prospects will all wear Jets uniforms. They won't, though they will be great fodder for trades. And, for every player in the 15-20 range who is a pleasant surprise, there is likely to be a big disappointment further up the chain.

 

[Mud Turtle]

Looking at the Oilers drafting is interesting. Once I stopped laughing from 1990 on, I put together this year by year list...

# of players drafted who played more than 200 games. I really goes to show how 3 great draft years in a row can set you up for huge success...

1979: 3 (4100 total games)
1980: 4 (3800 total games)
1981: 3 (2000 total games)
0
2
1
1
0
3 (1600)
2 (950)
3 (1100)
0
3
1
3
1
1
3
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1

Note: 1987-89 shows that just because you get 3 from a draft, doesn't mean you're building a dynasty. In those first few drafts the Oilers drafted players that had very long careers, not just 300-400 game players like the late '80's.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have estimated two players per draft to mark a successful drafting team, such that, on average, there would be a complete turnover (12F+6D+2G) every 10 years. Obviously this does not account for many variables, but I find it a nice working premise.
On that basis, the Jets will only have room for 10 players from the 2011-2015 drafts, of which 3 are spots are already taken, in Scheif, Lowry and Trouba. That leaves 7 spots open, for which Ehlers, Petan, Helle, Morrissey, Connor, Roslovic and Harkins are the frontrunners.
There is, theoretically, no room for anyone else.
Thinking this way provides a reality check for those thinking our top 15 prospects will all wear Jets uniforms. They won't, though they will be great fodder for trades. And, for every player in the 15-20 range who is a pleasant surprise, there is likely to be a big disappointment further up the chain.

Interesting way of looking at it. How many do we have room for instead of how many can we push in. If we graduate more than 2 per year we are going to have to trade someone. It may be the rookies/prospects or it may be veteran players they replace but someone has to move one way or another.

 

[Mud Turtle]

I've been wondering about this a lot too lately. If the best case scenario turns out and we indeed have a draft pool for the ages, we may use some young assets to trade up for a franchise type player or two, but that brings with it possible cap issues. Or, we may end up trading some older players like Ladd or Wheeler for draft picks or young talent that will continue the feed of young players into the system.

 

[KingBogo]

I have estimated two players per draft to mark a successful drafting team, such that, on average, there would be a complete turnover (12F+6D+2G) every 10 years. Obviously this does not account for many variables, but I find it a nice working premise.
On that basis, the Jets will only have room for 10 players from the 2011-2015 drafts, of which 3 are spots are already taken, in Scheif, Lowry and Trouba. That leaves 7 spots open, for which Ehlers, Petan, Helle, Morrissey, Connor, Roslovic and Harkins are the frontrunners.
There is, theoretically, no room for anyone else.
Thinking this way provides a reality check for those thinking our top 15 prospects will all wear Jets uniforms. They won't, though they will be great fodder for trades. And, for every player in the 15-20 range who is a pleasant surprise, there is likely to be a big disappointment further up the chain.

Agreed, it is very unlikely all our prospects that make the NHL will play with the Jets. In a perfect world you graduate the best to your team and use others as currency to fill holes in the lineup. Or you move them out for other assets if their is someone better coming along. However, we are still a few years away from worrying about not having room even if all our prospects reach their ceilings.