News Article: (THW) Nashville's Free Agent Flops

[Mercalius]

It's seems very shortsighted to think that Nashville's FA situation boils down to either signing the exact four players they did or going for another ride on the AHL tweener carousel, that's why I haven't responded to that hypothetical directly.

According to that line of reasoning, the four guys the Predators ended up with were the last available options on Nashville's UFA big board, because it completely removes the possibility that Poile could have done other things with his money (aside from waiver claims). Also, if getting the minor-league fodder out of the lineup was priority #1, why would you not just wait out the rush of terrible signings and pick out one or two bodies out of whoever was left?

Poile did a great job at signing NHL regulars to contracts. He also did a very poor job of getting value for his money. He signed a platter of role players with limited upside and possession/defensive value to at-or-above market value contracts, and his longest term investment is the worst of the bunch.

This is completely speculative. Once the season starts and the players play, their value will be defined. You may believe your assumption that the value =/= to the money spent, based on player role/history, but until they've logged significant minutes on the Predators, under the Predators system, your opinion that they are bad signings from a financial standpoint is just that - your opinion

And I have no problem with varying opinions - it's the point of the forums and things would be pretty dumb if everyone was a Rah-Rah cheerleader over every move, but you're presenting your opinion as fact, often in condescending ways, while having no better clue on how things will look a year, even 6 months from now, than the other posters disagreeing with you.

 

[triggrman]

It's seems very shortsighted to think that Nashville's FA situation boils down to either signing the exact four players they did or going for another ride on the AHL tweener carousel, that's why I haven't responded to that hypothetical directly.

According to that line of reasoning, the four guys the Predators ended up with were the last available options on Nashville's UFA big board, because it completely removes the possibility that Poile could have done other things with his money (aside from waiver claims). Also, if getting the minor-league fodder out of the lineup was priority #1, why would you not just wait out the rush of terrible signings and pick out one or two bodies out of whoever was left?

Poile did a great job at signing NHL regulars to contracts. He also did a very poor job of getting value for his money. He signed a platter of role players with limited upside and possession/defensive value to at-or-above market value contracts, and his longest term investment is the worst of the bunch.

Yet you said you would have signed Filipula to a $5m 5 year deal after breaking 40 points once in a 7 year NHL career.

 

[ThirdManIn]

Reminder: if you do not like a thread you can ignore it. We do not need posts asking for a thread to be locked. That is what the report function is for, but only if the thread violates site rules. You are not required to participate in a discussion just by virtue of the discussion existing.

 

[RaiderDoug]

It's seems very shortsighted to think that Nashville's FA situation boils down to either signing the exact four players they did or going for another ride on the AHL tweener carousel, that's why I haven't responded to that hypothetical directly.

According to that line of reasoning, the four guys the Predators ended up with were the last available options on Nashville's UFA big board, because it completely removes the possibility that Poile could have done other things with his money (aside from waiver claims). Also, if getting the minor-league fodder out of the lineup was priority #1, why would you not just wait out the rush of terrible signings and pick out one or two bodies out of whoever was left?

Nonsense. Poile went out and got the players he wanted that would come here.

The targets weren't just any warm bodies. But that doesn't mean that other targets were better choices.

There are issues with Cullen/Stalberg/Nystrom/Hendricks, I agree. But there are also issues with Filppula, Ryder, Horton, etc, etc, etc.

I challenge you to find anywhere in free agency the home run slam-dunk signing that Poile missed out on.

 

[WartracePred]

Nystrom is the only guy of the new additions who can skate with scoring lines and fight, and neither his fists or his hands are particularly notable. If getting deterrents who could actually play with the kids was the priority you're making it, Stalberg and Cullen don't make much sense as priority signings.


Again, neither of the toughness elements Poile got will spend much direct time with the kids, and none of the additions address the Predators' issues with possession or transition beyond replacing AHL/NHL tweeners with actual NHL bodies.


It's not the lack of point production that worries me, it's the lack of any kind of production, especially under adversity. Stalberg's possession stats are more correlation than causation, and are the only positive numbers of the group, Nystrom's the only notable PKer and the Stars kill has been mediocre. Cullen's only good offensive year during his last contract came on the verge of the Minnesota top six after the Parise/Suter acquisitions.

Nystrom may be the only fighter FA signed, but the others are bigger and more physical than the guys they are replacing. You don't have to drop the gloves to provide a buffer for the younger guys. Goose is a terrible fighter, but he's a big physical player. It's a style of play that was lacking last year. And it's a style of play that will allow younger, less physical guys (Forsberg, Jones, Ellis, Smith, etc...) a chance grow without looking over their shoulder.

Much of our transition issues resulted from losing Suter. He was huge part of getting the puck out of the defensive zone. Jones and Ellis are both projected to excell as puck moving Dmen. Again, acquiring bigger, more physical players is supposed to provide them some room to grow into those roles.

I do worry some about production. I think Stalberg is the one most likely to disappoint because goal expectations for him are higher. The others will provide some production, but there aren't expected to produce a ton. They are expected to play a certain style where the sum is greater than the parts. Everyone's production will improve if they are buying in to and executing the system. Look at Kostityin's numbers when he bought in and the team was executing the system.

Nashville has always scored by committee. Trotz loves the greasy goals. He also loves "intangibles". These new guys aren't supposed to put up great stats. They were signed to fill a particular need. According to Trotz, they are building a team, not cherry picking guys with the best stats. In a recent presser he said they weren't building a team in a fantasy league.

Am I drinking the coolade? Yes. It's hard to argue with the success Poile and Trotz have garnered considering the previous payroll restrictions. Last year was an anomaly. If there isn't significant improvement this year, I'll be stunned. Will they compete for the Cup this year? Nope. But I expect them to make the playoffs and probably win a round, maybe two.

 

[glenngineer]

This is completely speculative. Once the season starts and the players play, their value will be defined. You may believe your assumption that the value =/= to the money spent, based on player role/history, but until they've logged significant minutes on the Predators, under the Predators system, your opinion that they are bad signings from a financial standpoint is just that - your opinion

And I have no problem with varying opinions - it's the point of the forums and things would be pretty dumb if everyone was a Rah-Rah cheerleader over every move, but you're presenting your opinion as fact, often in condescending ways, while having no better clue on how things will look a year, even 6 months from now, than the other posters disagreeing with you.

While you feel he's analysis is fact in his world but just opinion, you can look at players and their stats in previous seasons and see what a player is worth value wise. This has been discussed at length when talking about Legwand's current contract and at the end of the day, what he produces and what he makes are in the ball park. So what do other players in the NHL make in comparison to the stats that these 4 players have had and what they make. The OP may be spot on in his assessment, he may be off base or the truth may lie somewhere in the middle. He may even be correct on one and completely incorrect on the others. Personally I feel the money spent on Stalberg and Cullen is fair market value and the money spent on Hendricks and Nystrom is an overpayment, especially on Nystrom. I may even do some research to look at the numbers. I'll post more later on this.

 

[PredsV82]

It's seems very shortsighted to think that Nashville's FA situation boils down to either signing the exact four players they did or going for another ride on the AHL tweener carousel, that's why I haven't responded to that hypothetical directly.

According to that line of reasoning, the four guys the Predators ended up with were the last available options on Nashville's UFA big board, because it completely removes the possibility that Poile could have done other things with his money (aside from waiver claims). Also, if getting the minor-league fodder out of the lineup was priority #1, why would you not just wait out the rush of terrible signings and pick out one or two bodies out of whoever was left?

I didnt say these guys were our "last option" but they certainly might have been. If you havent noticed we arent a destination that free agents are clamoring for.

More likely what happened was, Poile had a list that included "pie in the sky" options like Horton, Ribiero, Ryder, etc who probably made it clear early on that they werent interested... then top realistic choices like Briere, who apparently chose MTL over us at the last minute, and Stalberg (who we got) and backup choices like Cullen who obviously was our fallback when we didnt get Briere.

Then there was a seperate list of guys we wanted for the bottom 6, and its as likely that Hendricks and Nystrom emerged over anyone else because they were willing to listen to Poile. Poile had a perceived need, and filled it.

Poile did a great job at signing NHL regulars to contracts. He also did a very poor job of getting value for his money. He signed a platter of role players with limited upside and possession/defensive value to at-or-above market value contracts, and his longest term investment is the worst of the bunch.

"market" value is the key here

the UFA "market" always appears to be overpriced... until the next summer when GMs pay even more..


and this gets back to the point I have been making all along... until and unless these signings prevent us from signing someone else down the road, then as long as they fill the need that they were signed for, who cares what Poile paid?

 

[glenngineer]

So after doing a little research I put this chart together from the players we signed to comparable guys for games played and points per game to gauge the value of these players. I could've gone deeper and done more statistical analysis but I find the PPG value to be pretty fair and while it's certainly not perfect, it does shed some light on our signings.

I think Stalberg's salary fits in perfectly to what guys normally get paid for his type of production. He was a steal the last two years for what Chicago was paying him.

Cullen is pretty much in the ball park as well. 2011/12 he was a little high with what others around him got but this past season his value was right on the money for what he did. Giving him the same money he received the last 2 years seems like a good move as well.

Hendricks is a little harder to gauge but in 11/12 he was paid what others got paid for similar production. 12/13 the numbers were wider from those players around him and Mitchell was way overpaid for his production level compared to what Hendricks and Emmerton made. Now that being said, he was being paid $825,000 a season. Now that he's going to make $1,850,000 a year that seems like a bit of a stretch to me for intangibles. Not necessarily the best bang for the buck.

Nystrom was a little high in 11/12 compared to those around him but 12/13 his salary was right in line with others around him. Once again, his cap hit is jumping $1 million so to me, are those intangibles that he's bringing to the table worth it? Hard to sit here and say yes using some stats and salaries to compare him with other players.

To sum it up, I think what the author was saying is pretty spot on and while we may not like it, it may not be too far from the truth. Once again, is my analysis complete, nope, but it does shed some light on the subject for me anyway.

And to what Volde was saying about guys being targeted, my understanding was Poile targeted 7 guys and we landed these 4 plus the backup goalie so not sure if he got 5 out of the 7 he wanted or 4 out of 7 plus the goalie but I think Poile did a good job with Stalberg and Cullen but not so much with Nystrom and Hendricks.

 

[PredsV82]

So after doing a little research I put this chart together from the players we signed to comparable guys for games played and points per game to gauge the value of these players. I could've gone deeper and done more statistical analysis but I find the PPG value to be pretty fair and while it's certainly not perfect, it does shed some light on our signings.

I think Stalberg's salary fits in perfectly to what guys normally get paid for his type of production. He was a steal the last two years for what Chicago was paying him.

Cullen is pretty much in the ball park as well. 2011/12 he was a little high with what others around him got but this past season his value was right on the money for what he did. Giving him the same money he received the last 2 years seems like a good move as well.

Hendricks is a little harder to gauge but in 11/12 he was paid what others got paid for similar production. 12/13 the numbers were wider from those players around him and Mitchell was way overpaid for his production level compared to what Hendricks and Emmerton made. Now that being said, he was being paid $825,000 a season. Now that he's going to make $1,850,000 a year that seems like a bit of a stretch to me for intangibles. Not necessarily the best bang for the buck.

Nystrom was a little high in 11/12 compared to those around him but 12/13 his salary was right in line with others around him. Once again, his cap hit is jumping $1 million so to me, are those intangibles that he's bringing to the table worth it? Hard to sit here and say yes using some stats and salaries to compare him with other players.

To sum it up, I think what the author was saying is pretty spot on and while we may not like it, it may not be too far from the truth. Once again, is my analysis complete, nope, but it does shed some light on the subject for me anyway.

And to what Volde was saying about guys being targeted, my understanding was Poile targeted 7 guys and we landed these 4 plus the backup goalie so not sure if he got 5 out of the 7 he wanted or 4 out of 7 plus the goalie but I think Poile did a good job with Stalberg and Cullen but not so much with Nystrom and Hendricks.

good work glenn, thank you.

If Im reading you right, then contrary to what the writer implies, we paid pretty close to "market" for Stalberg and Cullen, and may have overpaid for Nystrom and Hendricks by as much as $1million.

That doesnt sound nearly as dire and awful as HBAPC makes it sound... and not to beat a dead horse but unless that $2 million "overpayment" keeps us from signing someone else, then all that will matter is whether these guys do what we need them to do, which is be better in aggregate than Erat, Spaling, Yip and Halischuk were.

 

[Paranoid Android]

My problem isn't that he overpaid or anything like that. My issue is that we went after guys I don't think we need. Stalberg + one of Nystrom/Hendricks would have been fine enough. Signing the others was overkill.

We went into the offseason with our biggest need being a consistent top 3/6 offensively creative forward. That need was not met. But I suppose the ultimate plan is to have homegrown talent fill that need. Poile must feel pretty confident in our young talented forwards.

I still think we are in a rebuilding phase, which is why these moves are somewhat head-scratchers.

 

[jstreet]

My problem isn't that he overpaid or anything like that. My issue is that we went after guys I don't think we need. Stalberg + one of Nystrom/Hendricks would have been fine enough. Signing the others was overkill.

We went into the offseason with our biggest need being a consistent top 3/6 offensively creative forward. That need was not met. But I suppose the ultimate plan is to have homegrown talent fill that need. Poile must feel pretty confident in our young talented forwards.

I still think we are in a rebuilding phase, which is why these moves are somewhat head-scratchers.

Last season Poile was confident in our young offensive talent taking another step forward and it didn't happen.

I do think Wilson really showed some brilliance and I'm looking for big things out of him this season. I've about given up hope on Smith getting out of his own head.

 

[PredsV82]

My problem isn't that he overpaid or anything like that. My issue is that we went after guys I don't think we need. Stalberg + one of Nystrom/Hendricks would have been fine enough. Signing the others was overkill.

We went into the offseason with our biggest need being a consistent top 3/6 offensively creative forward. That need was not met. But I suppose the ultimate plan is to have homegrown talent fill that need. Poile must feel pretty confident in our young talented forwards.

I still think we are in a rebuilding phase, which is why these moves are somewhat head-scratchers.

I am beginning to think none of us are smart enough to understand what the team really needed.

Is our problem really the lack of a skilled forward? Or a better way of asking would be, would adding a single skilled forward to our previous lineup (say replacing Erat with Bobby Ryan or Nathan Horton, two player who were actually available this summer) have really improved us that much?

Im guessing it would have been nice but it would have been pretty easy for teams to concentrate their defensive efforts on that one player and nullify him, and if nothing else changed we would have almost the same results as we had previously.

the better question is, what was really making our offense so bad? If the answer is actually the fact that our forecheck was pitiful because we lack size and strength and so we have no time in the offensive zone, then adding one skilled forward doesnt solve that at all.

If the answer is our defensemen couldnt get the puck out of our zone so our forwards could enter the attacking zone with speed and control of the puck, whick then leads to "dump and chase" which is unsuccessful because we lack the speed, size and strength the retrieve the dumped puck, then you dont solve that with a skilled forward either.

Bottom line is, the acquisitions were made with a system in mind, not simply the aggregate of the points the players had scored on their previous teams.. and until we see if these new guys allow Trotz to play his system the way he wants to, we cannot know if these acquisitions are "flops" or not

Last season Poile was confident in our young offensive talent taking another step forward and it didn't happen.

I do think Wilson really showed some brilliance and I'm looking for big things out of him this season. I've about given up hope on Smith getting out of his own head.

The only reason it didnt happens was injuries, with the exception of Smith

Wilson and Bourque were both on track for great seasons before they got hurt, and Beck is certainly progressing as fast or faster than we could have hoped.

If Wilson, Bourque and Beck all continue on their trajectories and stay healthy, we will be very pleased.

 

[WartracePred]

My problem isn't that he overpaid or anything like that. My issue is that we went after guys I don't think we need. Stalberg + one of Nystrom/Hendricks would have been fine enough. Signing the others was overkill.

I still think Poile loaded up on redundant forwards so that he has more pieces for a trade or two. I don't think we open the season with the same group of wingers and centers. Trotz alluded to future trades just after the FA frenzy.

 

[PredsV82]

I still think Poile loaded up on redundant forwards so that he has more pieces for a trade or two. I don't think we open the season with the same group of wingers and centers. Trotz alluded to future trades just after the FA frenzy.

I dont think anyone is redundant, and any trades that happen will be out of necessity not design. I think we deliberately replaced Yip, Halischuk and Spaling with bigger/tougher/faster players who fit what Trotz intends to do with this roster better than the replaced players would have allowed.

I think the chances of Spaling being on our roster opening night are slim to none.

 

[glenngineer]

I dont think anyone is redundant, and any trades that happen will be out of necessity not design. I think we deliberately replaced Yip, Halischuk and Spaling with bigger/tougher/faster players who fit what Trotz intends to do with this roster better than the replaced players would have allowed.

I think the chances of Spaling being on our roster opening night are slim to none.

I think it's Gaustad who is gone if Poile can find a taker. He did it once with Mason, it wouldn't surprise me if he found a taker for Goose as well.

 

[WartracePred]

I dont think anyone is redundant, and any trades that happen will be out of necessity not design. I think we deliberately replaced Yip, Halischuk and Spaling with bigger/tougher/faster players who fit what Trotz intends to do with this roster better than the replaced players would have allowed.

I think the chances of Spaling being on our roster opening night are slim to none.

Perhaps redundant isn't the right word, except for Goose (as Glen mentioned), and to a lesser degree Spaling. But the fact remains this roster has too many centers - Leggy, Fisher, Cullen, Goose, Spaling, Smith, and Wilson & Watson (both soon to be). Isn't Hendricks also a center??? That's a lot of bodies down the middle. I understand that some of these guys could be wingers.

I do agree that Spaling, and probably Smith, are as good as gone. I just hope they are part of package deal for someone that can contribute now versus a draft pick that yields a return years from now.

 

[PredsV82]

I think it's Gaustad who is gone if Poile can find a taker. He did it once with Mason, it wouldn't surprise me if he found a taker for Goose as well.

I think you are totally off base here. It has nothing to do with finding a taker. Poile brought in Nystrom and Hendricks specifically to be on a line with Gaustad. Poile isnt looking to dump him.

I think Smith is the one that I cant imagine anyone wanting to take off our hands with his curent contract.

 

[SavageSteve]

I think you are totally off base here. It has nothing to do with finding a taker. Poile brought in Nystrom and Hendricks specifically to be on a line with Gaustad. Poile isnt looking to dump him.

It didn't occur to me before this; but you saying this makes me suspect that Trotz is going to try and copy some of what his buddy Hitchcock did in St. Louis last year with their 'CPR' line. Plus having Hendricks with the ability to move up and down lines to mix things up and have the ability to have a strongish alternate face-off guy when the center gets kicked out of the dot on multiple lines. That seems to lead us towards placing a very strong value on puck possession and tenacity in all zones which is likely why the offers for 'the grinders' (can we get a sub-stop meal deal in their honor too?) to were made after Jones was selected 4th overall. Once the Blues sealed up the hole in their defense last season with adding Regheir abd J-Bo, they were a very solid team that faced a bad match-up with the Kings in the playoffs; but matched-up well with Chicago during the regular season.

 

[PredsV82]

It didn't occur to me before this; but you saying this makes me suspect that Trotz is going to try and copy some of what his buddy Hitchcock did in St. Louis last year with their 'CPR' line. Plus having Hendricks with the ability to move up and down lines to mix things up and have the ability to have a strongish alternate face-off guy when the center gets kicked out of the dot on multiple lines. That seems to lead us towards placing a very strong value on puck possession and tenacity in all zones which is likely why the offers for 'the grinders' (can we get a sub-stop meal deal in their honor too?) to were made after Jones was selected 4th overall. Once the Blues sealed up the hole in their defense last season with adding Regheir abd J-Bo, they were a very solid team that faced a bad match-up with the Kings in the playoffs; but matched-up well with Chicago during the regular season.

I think there is no doubt that puck possession was a very weak area for us last year and that is going to be a focus of the coming season.

Its not Rocket Surgery... if we keep the puck in the offensive zone longer, we are bound to score more

 

[glenngineer]

I think you are totally off base here. It has nothing to do with finding a taker. Poile brought in Nystrom and Hendricks specifically to be on a line with Gaustad. Poile isnt looking to dump him.

I think Smith is the one that I cant imagine anyone wanting to take off our hands with his curent contract.

I may be but if Poile was going to dump Spaling why qualify him? Sign him and then trade him? Have the arbitrator rule in Spaling's favor and then the Preds don't match losing him for nothing? Spend all that time in developing Spaling to lose him because we're paying players who are the same player as him more money?

I did a little research on Gaustad this morning too and looking at his numbers, he's overpaid by about $1 million as well. So that's $3 million in overpayment for our fourth line. I know it's not going to hinder us to sign anyone right now but at the same time as someone said yesterday, we're getting players to get a total of stats collectively than finding one guy who can do it on his own. It's the old two for one theory but if the one player is better I'd take the better player than two players that may or may not match those totals.

I think the fourth line has the potential to be a very good line of bangers. I just don't get the moves overall when it pertains to them, Spaling and Smith. Just has me scratching my head. Is it competition? Is it depth? Is it further moves? Until we see what else Poile has planned this is going to be a mystery for all of us.

 

[glenngineer]

I think there is no doubt that puck possession was a very weak area for us last year and that is going to be a focus of the coming season.

Its not Rocket Surgery... if we keep the puck in the offensive zone longer, we are bound to score more

Puck possession is very important but do we have the talent to do that?

 

[triggrman]

Puck possession is very important but do we have the talent to do that?

I think so now. Last season when we did establish an aggressive forecheck, we did well. We needed more speed and size though to play that game consistently and if we didn't add anything we added that. Think about our rants last year about dumping and chasing the puck without to the speed to recover and being hymned in our own in because the the wingers were too weak or to slow to keep the defensemen from camping on top of them.

 

[SavageSteve]

I think there is no doubt that puck possession was a very weak area for us last year and that is going to be a focus of the coming season.

Its not Rocket Surgery... if we keep the puck in the offensive zone longer, we are bound to score more

Exactly! Plus relentless forechecking without the puck and a renewed work ethic. Stats don't really lend themselves to those in a 'Moneyball' world. I had so many friends in StL I grew up with that just raved on how the Blues CPR line would just change the intensity of a game and lift all of the lines play.

It might be boring hockey for outsiders to watch; but with our crowd and knowing what we're in for, I think we'll be fine.

 

[PredsV82]

I may be but if Poile was going to dump Spaling why qualify him? Sign him and then trade him? Have the arbitrator rule in Spaling's favor and then the Preds don't match losing him for nothing? Spend all that time in developing Spaling to lose him because we're paying players who are the same player as him more money?

I did a little research on Gaustad this morning too and looking at his numbers, he's overpaid by about $1 million as well. So that's $3 million in overpayment for our fourth line. I know it's not going to hinder us to sign anyone right now but at the same time as someone said yesterday, we're getting players to get a total of stats collectively than finding one guy who can do it on his own. It's the old two for one theory but if the one player is better I'd take the better player than two players that may or may not match those totals.

I think the fourth line has the potential to be a very good line of bangers. I just don't get the moves overall when it pertains to them, Spaling and Smith. Just has me scratching my head. Is it competition? Is it depth? Is it further moves? Until we see what else Poile has planned this is going to be a mystery for all of us.

Spaling still has value and can bring something back in trade, unlike Blum, thus the QO protects his rights for us. And if worse comes to worse he will be on the roster though possibly as a frequent scratch

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Exactly! Plus relentless forechecking without the puck and a renewed work ethic. Stats don't really lend themselves to those in a 'Moneyball' world. I had so many friends in StL I grew up with that just raved on how the Blues CPR line would just change the intensity of a game and lift all of the lines play.

It might be boring hockey for outsiders to watch; but with our crowd and knowing what we're in for, I think we'll be fine.

Cracknell fits exactly into the type of "Moneyball" stuff I'm talking about. He had an immensely positive corsi despite a sub-50% OZS ratio. That applies to literally nobody Nashville signed, and had it, I would have spent several hundred words praising the signing.

The only advanced stats I've mentioned are:
A) Corsi, which is just +/- with shots instead of goals
B) Offensive to defensive zone start ratio
C) Various QoC stats (applied relatively within the confines of a roster to further illuminate usage)

It's not like I'm calculating WAR here, or anything.