Pens would be the worst possible opponent for Tampa.
When was the last time Pit was a real underdog? They can just go out and play without fear of losing. Knowing they’re forced to play their best hockey if they want to win and that’s reckless pressuring of the puck forcing mistakes then using their talent to make plays, it’s tough to handle if you start second guessing yourself.
Where underdogs usually stumble is they can’t score enough goals to win a series. Pit is less likely to have that problem. If they get into a situation where they’re rolling they can actually make you pay and turn momentum into goals. Example of this was the Tampa game after the bye week when Tampa had a bad start and the Pens were quickly up 3-0.
Obviously the current injuries i think would be too much (Letang, Rust, Maatta) against a team that already has the edge on paper when both teams are healthy. However if no new injuries occur Pens are likely to be healthy come playoffs and Murray has played much better recently. They’re also forced to play games where they constantly have to show resiliency if they wanna get in, while Tampa inevitably do the bare minimum in games they can’t quite get up for. Pens are developing good habits, Bolts the opposite.
And at the end of the day, it’s not like Tampa is several tiers above Pit on paper. Assuming Pittsburgh has no big underachievers in the post season.
Guentzel - Crosby - Rust
Aston-Reese - Malkin - Kessel
McCann - Bjugstad - Hornqvist
Blueger - Cullen - Simon/Wilson
Nobody is destroying that Pens offense in a head to head comparison no matter how good Tampa is up front. You're getting Guentzel/Sid and Geno/Kessel most of the game and the 3rd line is really good for a 3rd line. They have some of the most talented players on the PP and it can always click at the right time.
Even their healthy defense isn't that bad. Letang-Schultz-Dumoulin is a fine #1-3D and while it loses to Hedman-McDonagh-Stralman, Pit guys have 2 cups Tampa guys have 0.
And after that its group of Sergachev, Cernak, Coburn, Girard vs Maatta, Johnson, Pettersson, Gudbranson. Tampa have the gem in Sergachev but other than that it's still bunch of #4-6 guys and the difference between them is somewhat negligible. Like Maatta vs Coburn? Pettersson vs Cernak? I don't see how the Pens get outmatched there. JMFJ has to play well but he's also been pretty good at least in spurts lately so he might be able to surprise and hang with Sergachev. And Girard vs Gudbranson are 2 defensive dmen that try to do the same thing out here.
Vasilevskiy is in my opinion the best goalie in the world but hot Murray is really good too like we've seen in years past.
Basically Tampa is better across the board, but if the Pens get the most out of their group at the right time, Tampa will not win the series by getting outplayed unless Vasi goes nuts however no goalie has been able to shut the door completely and steal a series from the Pens in recent years.
There's also the fact that big chunk of the Pens roster have beaten big chunk of Tampa's roster before in a playoff series. Anything you can draw confidence from is a good thing, while some of the Bolts guys can start feeling like oh no, it's happening again.
Both teams healthy i say 70-30 chance for Tampa. And i'd say that's the best any possible 1st round opponent can do. Carolina get heavily out talented up front and they have no depth to try different things with line matching, Islanders lack offense and i would even argue they have worse D than Carolina, Columbus have been destroyed by the Bolts getting blown out left and right as they have no confidence keeping the puck out against this team and MTL is swiss cheese for the most skilled team in the league with that D and lack of high-end talent. Also Vasi is much better than some of the goalies these teams have.
1) PIT
2) CBJ
3) CAR
4) NYI
5) MTL
Order for me vs Tampa.
I think this type of playoff series would be refreshing for the Pens. They're used to being the target team to beat by now. What better way to show they still have it by beating the best team in the league ?