News Article: THN: Pre Season look at the Winnipeg Jets

[garret9]

Addition by subtraction only works when you are subtracting a negative and while those players weren't great, they generally weren't the reason the team lost. There were and in some cases still are lesser players on the roster.

Losing Tanner Glass was addition by subtraction, so was losing Chris Mason. Both players were below replacement level.

Losing Wellwood and replacing him with somebody worse doesn't quite cut it as addition by subtraction. It is just subtraction.

Not all....

 

[truck]

Not all....

I thought about putting a Mittens caveat in there, but a team could do worse than Mittens in the 13th forward slot (well perhaps not much worse)... but it really isn't Mittens fault that Noel played him in a top 6 role.

 

[Bob E]

See ya, Mittens.

 

[Whileee]

I thought about putting a Mittens caveat in there, but a team could do worse than Mittens in the 13th forward slot (well perhaps not much worse)... but it really isn't Mittens fault that Noel played him in a top 6 role.

....nor was it Jokinen's fault that Noel played him on the point on the power play. It's one thing to have the right roster, but it also has to be used properly.

Noel will have some important decisions about how to use his players this year, and I hope he does it optimally. For me, the jury is still out.

 

[Whileee]

Uhm... 30 seasons? What?!

A predictive measure is as predictive as often as it is correct. If it is correct far more often than "someone who rubs their chin and gives it a go," then it is more predictive. If on the other hand it is not, it is less predictive.

Not sure why that's such a hard concept to get. Yes there may be variables that can happen but in the end if something can be good up to a x% than it is that predictive.

That's why it is weighted probabilities and not destiny. Yes predictive models will never be 100%; that's stupid, but don't dismiss something just because it can be accurate to -- let's say -- 70% of the time...

There is an important point here, though. When evaluating a player's advanced stats, what window is most appropriate? Should we look at the most recent season? That last 2 or 3 seasons? What about a player that shifted teams and roles over the past 2-3 seasons (like Frolik)? Should we consider his CHI numbers, or his FLA numbers?

Another point relates to position in career trajectory. This point has been touched on with respect to players at or just beyond their "peak" (using historical comparisons). However, can we apply any predictive approaches to young players that are still on the upward trajectory? How would we then assess players like Kane and Bogosian and their potential for the next year or two?

 

[garret9]

Jokinen with Miettinen:
28.6% GF%
43.4% CF%

Jokinen without Miettinen:
50.0% GF%
52.0% CF%

When you are pulling down Olli Jokinen that hard, it might be time to go to Europe....

the stats above are:
only looking at games when within 2 points to ignore teams going into defensive shells when leading by >2
ignoring the first 10s after a faceoff to minimize OZS differences

 

[knorthern knight]

Since people have mentioned statistics, is there a DVND (Dressed-Versus-Not-Dressed) statistic? I.e. what percentage of possible points does a team get in games where a player is dressed versus percentage of possible points the team gets in games where a player is not dressed? (injured/healthy-scratch/suspended/sent-down-to-AHL/whatever).

 

[jigglysquishy]

I'm damn excited for this season. Not only are two of our rookies poised to grab a roster spot, but it's my first year with TSN-Jets.

September 15th can't come soon enough.

 

[garret9]

Since people have mentioned statistics, is there a DVND (Dressed-Versus-Not-Dressed) statistic? I.e. what percentage of possible points does a team get in games where a player is dressed versus percentage of possible points the team gets in games where a player is not dressed? (injured/healthy-scratch/suspended/sent-down-to-AHL/whatever).

Best you could do with this is use GVT and then convert it from goals to approximate wins...

GVT is goals versus threshold which is an attempt to approximate how many goals a player improves a team's goal differential compared to what a replacement level player would accomplish.
You can then use the average amount of improvement in goals equals an improvement of one win.

It's done often but there are some problems with how GVT isn't very repeatable as it has many of the same holes as +/- does (albeit not as bad). It's a good stat and pretty neat for looking what happend, but it lacks in predictive ability.

 

[knorthern knight]

Best you could do with this is use GVT and then convert it from goals to approximate wins...

GVT is goals versus threshold which is an attempt to approximate how many goals a player improves a team's goal differential compared to what a replacement level player would accomplish.
You can then use the average amount of improvement in goals equals an improvement of one win.

It's done often but there are some problems with how GVT isn't very repeatable as it has many of the same holes as +/- does (albeit not as bad). It's a good stat and pretty neat for looking what happend, but it lacks in predictive ability.

Hmmm, is there raw text data somewhere of dressed players by game, preferrably CSV or similar text format? I'm pretty good at bash shell-scripting under linux. I should be able to cobble together a script to analyse the data.

 

[KingBogo]

I think its a fairly unbiased report. I'm not sure how people can take issue with it. Considering this....

KEY DEPARTURES: Nik Antropov, Antti Miettinen, Kyle Wellwood, Alexander Burmistrov, Mike Santorelli, Derek Meech.

KEY ADDITIONS: Devin Setoguchi, Michael Frolik, Matt Halischuk, Adam Pardy.


What is there to be positive about? We are playing in a tougher division, we still don't really have a number 1 line or a number 1 goaltender. I realize that we are building through the draft and I think that's a wise approach, but its going to be a while yet before this is a playoff contender.

I think of it a little differently. The Jets are realistically 3-5 years away from any hope of being a true contender. Out of the key departures only Burmi had any chance of being a contributing member of the team at that time. In terms of the key additions you need to add Scheifele and Trouba to Seto, Frolik, Halischuk and Pardy. Out of the key additions 5 out of the 6 have a chance to be contributing members of a contending Jets team 3-5 years down the line.

Slowly but surely this team is replacing the deadwood and placeholders with players who will be part of our future.

Next year guys like Joker and Thorburn will be gone to open up room for the likes of Lowry, O'Dell etc. Hopefully followed by the likes of Morrissey, Petan and others.

I think we sneak into the playoffs this year, taking the first step towards contention. Our future rests on the backs of our prospects not Antro, Mittens, Wellwood etc. so why pine for for their absence.

 

[Analyst365]

Uhm... 30 seasons? What?!

A predictive measure is as predictive as often as it is correct. If it is correct far more often than "someone who rubs their chin and gives it a go," then it is more predictive. If on the other hand it is not, it is less predictive.

Not sure why that's such a hard concept to get. Yes there may be variables that can happen but in the end if something can be good up to a x% than it is that predictive.

That's why it is weighted probabilities and not destiny. Yes predictive models will never be 100%; that's stupid, but don't dismiss something just because it can be accurate to -- let's say -- 70% of the time...

Our friendly argument has digressed I'm afraid. I was talking about the futility in trying to use past performances to predict the standings when you are trying to assign exact positions to all 30 teams (as THN did).

However if you do think you can correctly predict positions 1-30, every 7 seasons out of 10, then I am all ears...

 

[garret9]

Our friendly argument has digressed I'm afraid. I was talking about the futility in trying to use past performances to predict the standings when you are trying to assign exact positions to all 30 teams (as THN did).

However if you do think you can correctly predict positions 1-30, every 7 seasons out of 10, then I am all ears...

I guess there's a bit of misunderstanding...

I was just saying that there is predictiveness in the standings and discussing that no one lists teams 1-30 predicting 100% certainty. Folks who do list teams in order are showing what they deem to be the most likely result and/or the higher the team, the more likely they will be a top contender.

The value of such arrangement is by how accurate or right they were on average each time. Not how often they are 100% correct on 1-30.

All models, whether by stats, research or gut feeling, are and are not more predictive than others by how accurate they are each season on average.

Just for one example, looking at particular shot differentials within the first 15-20 games is more indicative of the end of season standings than the standings at that same moment in time.

 

[peter sullivan]

I think its a fairly unbiased report. I'm not sure how people can take issue with it. Considering this....

KEY DEPARTURES: Nik Antropov, Antti Miettinen, Kyle Wellwood, Alexander Burmistrov, Mike Santorelli, Derek Meech.

KEY ADDITIONS: Devin Setoguchi, Michael Frolik, Matt Halischuk, Adam Pardy.


What is there to be positive about? We are playing in a tougher division, we still don't really have a number 1 line or a number 1 goaltender. I realize that we are building through the draft and I think that's a wise approach, but its going to be a while yet before this is a playoff contender.

Our division is tougher, but the system is different...we were competing with the entire eastern conference last year....our division is far from the toughest...i dont get why people are so afraid of who we will compete with...which division would be easier?

we had a number one line last year....two of thew three players were in the top 30 in league scoring...i consider that a top line.....if they can keep it up.

i agree with the pavalec assessment.

we will make the playoffs this year....we lost some key dead weight...if the guys we got can even produce at 3/4 of what they can, we will have made some good upgrades.

i think a team from winnipeg will always be rated lower than it should be by the main stream media.

we will make the playoffs this year.

 

[Channelcat]

I wasn't suggesting that the departures were significant, but rather that the changes in general were insignificant. Also, we're now on par with the Blackhawks in salary but we don't have Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford etc in our lineup. Hopefully our long term deals all pay off, but that may be a bit much to ask for.

 

[SensibleGuy]

I wasn't suggesting that the departures were significant, but rather that the changes in general were insignificant. Also, we're now on par with the Blackhawks in salary but we don't have Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford etc in our lineup.

I would have to assume that's because Chicago DOES have those players in their line-up...

 

[Bob E]

I wasn't suggesting that the departures were significant, but rather that the changes in general were insignificant. Also, we're now on par with the Blackhawks in salary but we don't have Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford etc in our lineup. Hopefully our long term deals all pay off, but that may be a bit much to ask for.

Imo, Chicago has managed their core stars' contracts very well, but at a cost. Had to move support players in 2010 and again in 2013. Can be seen as simply the cost of winning a cup, then keeping your core.

Imagine if Toews and Kane needed new contracts THIS summer. With the cap coming down, they would have to move more pieces. Now with the cap likely going up, they'll be fine in giving their dynamic pair nice long-term contracts. Think Getzlaf and Perry - but add some $.

If the Jets have guys play to their contracts, they'll be very competitive. But I have a few concerns that Olli (decline), Toby (health) and Bogo (consistency, still developing) will be able to play at the level of their contracts this year.

A $4.5-5 mill/yr C, that is actually earning that money, would be huge for this team. Don't think Olli is that guy anymore, nor is Scheifele, yet. That's the biggest concern and issue for me going into this season.

 

[Akipa]

Here's another preview of the Jets season from Last Word On Sports. It takes a look at the key storylines for the upcoming season as well as the players to look out for.

http://lastwordonsports.com/2013/09/10/easier-travel-but-harder-road-for-2013-14-winnipeg-jets/

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Here's another preview of the Jets season from Last Word On Sports. It takes a look at the key storylines for the upcoming season as well as the players to look out for.

http://lastwordonsports.com/2013/09/10/easier-travel-but-harder-road-for-2013-14-winnipeg-jets/

Good summary of where the Jets currently sit. Thanks for posting the article.

 

[Whileee]

I think its a fairly unbiased report. I'm not sure how people can take issue with it. Considering this....

KEY DEPARTURES: Nik Antropov, Antti Miettinen, Kyle Wellwood, Alexander Burmistrov, Mike Santorelli, Derek Meech.

KEY ADDITIONS: Devin Setoguchi, Michael Frolik, Matt Halischuk, Adam Pardy.


What is there to be positive about? We are playing in a tougher division, we still don't really have a number 1 line or a number 1 goaltender. I realize that we are building through the draft and I think that's a wise approach, but its going to be a while yet before this is a playoff contender.

They also added Scheifele, and perhaps Trouba.

Don't forget that they played without Bogosian for 1/3 of last season, and Enstrom missed more than 1/2 the season. Those are two of their top 3 D. If they play a lot more this season, that will be a huge improvement on D.

I saw Buff at training camp today. Let's just say that I expect an impressive season from him. He is noticeably slimmer and lighter on his feet than last year, and seemed to be pretty fit.

I think the Jets will be in tough to make the playoffs in the West this year, but I think there are several reasons why they will be an improved team.