THN Future Watch is out

[BudBundy]

Bowen Bryan listed as the best prospect outside the NHL. Zegras surprises me at #2. Evan Bouchard is the top Oilers prospect in the top 100 at #15. Broberg 2nd at 24th. Oilers top 5 are Bouchard, Broberg, Lavoie, then Jones and Samorukov. No big surprises. Thoughts?

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[Tyrolean]

Bowen Bryan listed as the best prospect outside the NHL. Zegras surprises me at #2. Evan Bouchard is the top Oilers prospect in the top 100 at #15. Broberg 2nd at 24th. Oilers top 5 are Bouchard, Broberg, Lavoie, then Jones and Samorukov. No big surprises. Thoughts?

Should have taken Zegras instead of Broberg.

 

[Aerchon]

Bowen Bryan listed as the best prospect outside the NHL. Zegras surprises me at #2. Evan Bouchard is the top Oilers prospect in the top 100 at #15. Broberg 2nd at 24th. Oilers top 5 are Bouchard, Broberg, Lavoie, then Jones and Samorukov. No big surprises. Thoughts?

Should have taken Zegras instead of Broberg.

Broberg at 24 is considerably higher than expected.

What ranking is Lavoie?

 

[Messrules11]

Yeah, passing on Zegras was a huge mistake. I wanted him then and he continues to rise through the ranks. Figures.

 

[snipes]

Link?

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

When we passed on Zegras I got the same feeling as when we passed taking Barzal.

It's very frustrating when ego gets in the way of making the obvious choice.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Should have taken Zegras instead of Broberg.

Yeah Zegras has proven to be a legitimate top six NHL forward..

 

[Jumptheshark]

Should have taken Zegras instead of Broberg.

No one is happy about the broberg pick. There were several higher end players on the board

 

[BudBundy]

Should have taken Zegras instead of Broberg.

Broberg at 24 is considerably higher than expected.

What ranking is Lavoie?

78/100

 

[Llamamoto]

When we passed on Zegras I got the same feeling as when we passed taking Barzal.

It's very frustrating when ego gets in the way of making the obvious choice.

Ego? What does that have to do with anything? Maybe the Oilers management preferred Broberg?....

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

When we passed on Zegras I got the same feeling as when we passed taking Barzal.

It's very frustrating when ego gets in the way of making the obvious choice.

WTF are you talking about?

 

[Kolja]

Wow, people need to chill on Broberg. Seems to be doing fine going the Klefbom route. If he turns out like Klef we will be fine.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

WTF are you talking about?

It just seems that every management type we've had 'think they know better' and swing for the fences with the unpopular decision. I brought up the ego thing because somewhere in the decision making process, Holland, Gretzky, or whoever it was whose final decision it came to, made a point of rejecting what most fans, independent scouts, and media presenters felt was an obvious pick for a player that was predicted to go in the back half of the draft.

To be fair I've been a fan of most of the other moves Holland has made, and is looking like the best GM we've had in quite some time.

I'm just probably scarred.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

It just seems that every management type we've had 'think they know better' and swing for the fences with the unpopular decision. I brought up the ego thing because somewhere in the decision making process, Holland, Gretzky, or whoever it was whose final decision it came to, made a point of rejecting what most fans, independent scouts, and media presenters felt was an obvious pick for a player that was predicted to go in the back half of the draft.

To be fair I've been a fan of most of the other moves Holland has made, and is looking like the best GM we've had in quite some time.

I'm just probably scarred.

I think its fair to say with Lowe and MacTavish they thought they were the smartest person in the room. I am not so sure that is the case with Holland, and as you say he's done ok to this point. Holland has done fairly well with his Swedish D thus far too, I am willing to judge the draft in about 4 years time from now as none of the players from last years draft have done anything to warrant or discredit their picks thus far.

And we are all scared LOL. 25 - 30 years of brutal drafting does that to an Oiler fan LOL

 

[BudBundy]

No one is happy about the broberg pick. There were several higher end players on the board

I wanted Zegras but I was, and still am, taking a patient approach. I love defensemen that have ++ skating and + size like Broberg. If he turns out to be a top pairing 2-way D he would be more valuable than a first line winger, so we’ll see. I have really liked Holland’s approach compared to our other recent stooges so I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt for now.

 

[Aerchon]

Ego? What does that have to do with anything? Maybe the Oilers management preferred Broberg?....

WTF are you talking about?

This was a Holland pick through and through. Every new GM wants to make their special mark on the team. Typically something outside the box that only they feel passionate about. As others said, an attempt to be smarter than everyone else. Holland has THE say on who gets picked and has made comments that being a GM and making those decisions is what he loves about being a GM versus a President of hockey Ops.

A Swedish defenseman that Holland fell in love with after watching him at the WJC. Who he is quoted as referencing in relation to Lidstrom...

Broberg is a defenseman, which we do not have an urgent need in the organization short or long term. As a left shooting defenseman this goes double. Outside that one WJC has not shown high end potential. Holland came from Detroit that was desperate for a defenseman and very obviously focused on taking one no matter what in the first round. He most likely leaked the pick intentionally to soften media and fan backlash for taking a player ranked and thought of significantly lower than the 8OA spot we were drafting at.

8OA in a supposedly strong forward draft is exactly what every person, outside of Holland, was thinking to be perfect for the Oilers. Zegras falling to 7 was surprising. He was consensus 4/5 if I remember. Dropping to 9 ridiculous, damn Anaheim.

Ironically enough, I heard prior to the draft a scout comment that the Oilers picking Broberg would be "such an Oiler thing to do, always try to be the smartest person in the room". Ironic because prior to Holland the Oilers are usually pretty good at drafting in the first round and generally take the consensus best pick available.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I wanted Zegras but I was, and still am, taking a patient approach. I love defensemen that have ++ skating and + size like Broberg. If he turns out to be a top pairing 2-way D he would be more valuable than a first line winger, so we’ll see. I have really liked Holland’s approach compared to our other recent stooges so I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt for now.

99% of the time I love my swedish d men. This is the 1% I am concerned about

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

This was a Holland pick through and through. Every new GM wants to make their special mark on the team. Typically something outside the box that only they feel passionate about. As others said, an attempt to be smarter than everyone else. Holland has THE say on who gets picked and has made comments that being a GM and making those decisions is what he loves about being a GM versus a President of hockey Ops.

A Swedish defenseman that Holland fell in love with after watching him at the WJC. Who he is quoted as referencing in relation to Lidstrom...

Broberg is a defenseman, which we do not have an urgent need in the organization short or long term. As a left shooting defenseman this goes double. Outside that one WJC has not shown high end potential. Holland came from Detroit that was desperate for a defenseman and very obviously focused on taking one no matter what in the first round. He most likely leaked the pick intentionally to soften media and fan backlash for taking a player ranked and thought of significantly lower than the 8OA spot we were drafting at.

8OA in a supposedly strong forward draft is exactly what every person, outside of Holland, was thinking to be perfect for the Oilers. Zegras falling to 7 was surprising. He was consensus 4/5 if I remember. Dropping to 9 ridiculous, damn Anaheim.

Ironically enough, I heard prior to the draft a scout comment that the Oilers picking Broberg would be "such an Oiler thing to do, always try to be the smartest person in the room". Ironic because prior to Holland the Oilers are usually pretty good at drafting in the first round and generally take the consensus best pick available.

So you know Ken Holland well enough to make concrete statements like this about why he took Broberg? He "most likely" leaked the pick intentionally? OK, you must have a real insight into the mind of Ken Holland...or maybe Holland took BPA simple as that.
Zegras has proven exactly what already? Which scout said what you are repeating? And the Oilers have absolutely shit at drafting in the first round outside of the obvious choices.

Zegras has proven nothing.

 

[CupofOil]

So you know Ken Holland well enough to make concrete statements like this about why he took Broberg? He "most likely" leaked the pick intentionally? OK, you must have a real insight into the mind of Ken Holland...or maybe Holland took BPA simple as that.
Zegras has proven exactly what already? Which scout said what you are repeating? And the Oilers have absolutely shit at drafting in the first round outside of the obvious choices.

Zegras has proven nothing.

That's not true actually and funny enough, their three first round misses in recent times WERE the obvious choices (Yakupov, Paajarvi, Puljujarvi). Other than that, their 1st rounders have been really good and not just the obvious ones. Getting Klefbom, Eberle and Yamamoto (early returns) in the 20s are all steals, they could have easily taken Bennett over Draisaitl and Nichushkin over Nurse too.

In any event, I agree with the rest of your post. None of these prospects have proven anything so it's silly to declare victory or failure at this early stage.
With that said, I didn't and still don't get the Broberg pick and would feel a whole better going forward with a high skilled forward in the system instead but am willing to give Broberg a chance to proven me and many others wrong.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

I wanted Zegras but I was, and still am, taking a patient approach. I love defensemen that have ++ skating and + size like Broberg. If he turns out to be a top pairing 2-way D he would be more valuable than a first line winger, so we’ll see. I have really liked Holland’s approach compared to our other recent stooges so I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt for now.

I wanted Zegras but put Broberg second on my list for the draft. So I'm just going to ride this out and hope for the best.

 

[Rufus Aslegard]

Should have taken Zegras instead of Broberg.

We are not going down this road again, are we?

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

That's not true actually and funny enough, their three first round misses in recent times WERE the obvious choices (Yakupov, Paajarvi, Puljujarvi). Other than that, their 1st rounders have been really good and not just the obvious ones. Getting Klefbom, Eberle and Yamamoto (early returns) in the 20s are all steals, they could have easily taken Bennett over Draisaitl and Nichushkin over Nurse too.

In any event, I agree with the rest of your post. None of these prospects have proven anything so it's silly to declare victory or failure at this early stage.
With that said, I didn't and still don't get the Broberg pick and would feel a whole better going forward with a high skilled forward in the system instead but am willing to give Broberg a chance to proven me and many others wrong.

I have to respectfully disagree that Yak was an obvious choice or even the consensus. Burke said he was the worst interview he had ever had and had Reilly first. Oilers scouts themselves were said to be overruled by the owner who apparently meddled in the pick as they allegedly wanted Murray who went 2nd.

Puljujarvi was close to a consensus at 3 but he was not even interviewed by the Oilers. Kekalainen is on record as to why he passed on him. So not obvious if you don’t groupthink the way the Oilers did.

Paajarvi? He was not a 100% consensus.

My point is you are expected to have hits in the first round so I give the Oilers little credit in the first round when they do hit as these are kids who are supposed to hit. How hard they hit is anyone’s guess.

However the Oilers have far more absolute misses in the first round than hits after the first overall pick outside of Yakupov. For every Eberle or Yamamoto there are 3 Jason Bonsignores or Jesse Puljujarvis going back 25 years.

1984 Selmar Odelain (fail)
1985 Scott Metcalfe (utter fail)
1986 Kim Issel (utter fail)
1987 Peter Soberlak (utter fail)
1988 Francois Leroux (utter fail)
1989 Jason Soules (utter fail)
1990 Scott Allison (utter fail)
1991 Tyler Wright (4th liner)
1991 Martin Rucinsky (3/4 liner)
1992 Joe Hulbig (utter and complete fail)
1993 Jason Arnott (finally a hit but run out of town by idiot fans)
1993 Nick Stajduhar (laughable fail)
1994 Jason Bonsignore (hysterical fail)
1994 Ryan Smith (huge hit)
1995 Steve Kelly (moronic fail)
1996 Boyd Devereaux (4th liner)
1996 Matthieu Descoteau (utter fail)
1997 Michel Reisen (complete fail)
1998 Michael Henrich (absolute fail)
1999 Jani Rita (complete fail)
2000 Alexei Mikhinov (joking fail)
2001 Ales Hemsky (finally a hit)
2002 Jesse Niinimaki (disastrous fail)
2003 Marc Andre Pouliot (fail)
2004 Devan Dubnyk (Oiler fail)
2005 Rob Schremp (laughable fail)
2005 Andrew Cogliano (3rd liner)
2006 Sam Gagner (hit)
2006 Alex Plante (complete fail)
2006 Riley Nash (4th liner)
2008 Jordan Eberle (hit)
2009 Magnus Paajarvi (fail)
2010* 1st overall Taylor Hall (hit and traded like Arnott)
2011 *1st overall RNH (hit)
2011 Oscar Klefbom (hit)
2012* 1st overall Nail Yakupov (utter complete laughable failure)
2013 Darnell Nurse (hit)
2014 Leon Draisatl (best 1st pick outside of McDavid)
2015*1st Overall Connor McDavid ( duuuuhhh even we couldn’t screw this pick up)
2016 Jesse Puljujarvi (but we sure screwed this one up)
2017 Kailer Yamamoto (so far so good)
2018 Evan Bouchard (?)
2019 Phillip Broberg (?)

Let’s tally

Utter completely laughable moronic failures - 20
Fails - 4
3rd/4th liners - 4
Hits but run out of town by idiot fans or managers - 3
Hits that weren't 1st overall picks - 4
Hits that were 1st overall picks - 1
Leon Draisatls - 1
Connor McDavids - 1
Yet to prove themselves - 3

I rest my case.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

We are not going down this road again, are we?

Apparently.

 

[CupofOil]

I have to respectfully disagree that Yak was an obvious choice or even the consensus. Burke said he was the worst interview he had ever had and had Reilly first. Oilers scouts themselves were said to be overruled by the owner who apparently meddled in the pick as they allegedly wanted Murray who went 2nd.

Puljujarvi was close to a consensus at 3 but he was not even interviewed by the Oilers. Kekalainen is on record as to why he passed on him. So not obvious if you don’t groupthink the way the Oilers did.

Paajarvi? He was not a 100% consensus.

My point is you are expected to have hits in the first round so I give the Oilers little credit in the first round when they do hit as these are kids who are supposed to hit. How hard they hit is anyone’s guess.

However the Oilers have far more absolute misses in the first round than hits after the first overall pick outside of Yakupov. For every Eberle or Yamamoto there are 3 Jason Bonsignores or Jesse Puljujarvis going back 25 years.

1984 Selmar Odelain (fail)
1985 Scott Metcalfe (utter fail)
1986 Kim Issel (utter fail)
1987 Peter Soberlak (utter fail)
1988 Francois Leroux (utter fail)
1989 Jason Soules (utter fail)
1990 Scott Allison (utter fail)
1991 Tyler Wright (4th liner)
1991 Martin Rucinsky (3/4 liner)
1992 Joe Hulbig (utter and complete fail)
1993 Jason Arnott (finally a hit but run out of town by idiot fans)
1993 Nick Stajduhar (laughable fail)
1994 Jason Bonsignore (hysterical fail)
1994 Ryan Smith (huge hit)
1995 Steve Kelly (moronic fail)
1996 Boyd Devereaux (4th liner)
1996 Matthieu Descoteau (utter fail)
1997 Michel Reisen (complete fail)
1998 Michael Henrich (absolute fail)
1999 Jani Rita (complete fail)
2000 Alexei Mikhinov (joking fail)
2001 Ales Hemsky (finally a hit)
2002 Jesse Niinimaki (disastrous fail)
2003 Marc Andre Pouliot (fail)
2004 Devan Dubnyk (Oiler fail)
2005 Rob Schremp (laughable fail)
2005 Andrew Cogliano (3rd liner)
2006 Sam Gagner (hit)
2006 Alex Plante (complete fail)
2006 Riley Nash (4th liner)
2008 Jordan Eberle (hit)
2009 Magnus Paajarvi (fail)
2010* 1st overall Taylor Hall (hit and traded like Arnott)
2011 *1st overall RNH (hit)
2011 Oscar Klefbom (hit)
2012* 1st overall Nail Yakupov (utter complete laughable failure)
2013 Darnell Nurse (hit)
2014 Leon Draisatl (best 1st pick outside of McDavid)
2015*1st Overall Connor McDavid ( duuuuhhh even we couldn’t screw this pick up)
2016 Jesse Puljujarvi (but we sure screwed this one up)
2017 Kailer Yamamoto (so far so good)
2018 Evan Bouchard (?)
2019 Phillip Broberg (?)

Let’s tally

Utter completely laughable moronic failures - 20
Fails - 4
3rd/4th liners - 4
Hits but run out of town by idiot fans or managers - 3
Hits that weren't 1st overall picks - 4
Hits that were 1st overall picks - 1
Leon Draisatls - 1
Connor McDavids - 1
Yet to prove themselves - 3

I rest my case.

I was referencing the Katz era mainly but, yeah, if you extrapolate over the last 30 years, the 1st round hasn't been too kind to the Oilers.

The bolded is big time hindsight.
The entire forum was elated beyond belief to win the Yak lottery and, yes it was the Yak lottery as he was the very clear and consensus top prospect that year moreso than Hall and RNH were.
Sure, there were the very few who wanted somebody else but the vast majority thought Yak was a no brainer and were scared to death that the brass would overthink it and go with the low upside Murray or their Oil King boy Reinhart.
Also, Burke was universally mocked for having that opinion about Rielly being the best player in the draft.

The Jackets taking PLD was considered a gift from hockey heaven. This forum was elated and 95% of the hockey world was dumbfounded that the Oilers had this stroke of luck again. Everybody outside of a few Finnish posters who saw him regularly and questioned his Hockey IQ and the not so vocal minority thought the Oilers struck gold with Pulju.

To a lesser extent, same with Paajarvi. Most thought that he would go way higher than he did, I seem to recall that people were resigned to taking Glennie or Ellis. Most people were thrilled with Paajarvi, not quite on a Yak/Pulju level but lots of happy fans with the Paajarvi pick. Not 100% consensus but he was the BPA at that time.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I was referencing the Katz era mainly but, yeah, if you extrapolate over the last 30 years, the 1st round hasn't been too kind to the Oilers.

The bolded is big time hindsight.
The entire forum was elated beyond belief to win the Yak lottery and, yes it was the Yak lottery as he was the very clear and consensus top prospect that year moreso than Hall and RNH were.
Sure, there were the very few who wanted somebody else but the cast majority thought Yak was a no brainer and to be honest, everybody at the top of that draft disappointed.

The Jackets taking PLD was considered a gift from hockey heaven. This forum was elated and 95% of the hockey world was dumbfounded that the Oilers had this stroke of luck again. Everybody outside of a few Finnish posters who saw him regularly and questioned his Hockey IQ and the not so vocal minority thought the Oilers struck gold with Pulju.

To a lesser extent, same with Paajarvi. Most thought that he would go way higher than he did, I seem to recall that people were resigned to taking Glennie or Ellis. Most people were thrilled with Paajarvi, not quite on a Yak/Pulju level but lots of happy fans with the Paajarvi pick. Not 100% consensus but he was the BPA at that time.

But that’s what I said, the Oilers have been shit in the past 25 + years.

I don’t care much what the forum wants or thinks or who they didn’t want or how happy the fans are with a pick. That matters zero.

Yak was not a unanimous consensus pick at 1st overall among the teams and not even amongst Oiler scouts. Katz made the pick from all reports.

PJ I agree was pretty much a consensus as I said already, but when it came out the Oilers did not even bother to interview him it shows how they were suckered. Kekalainen did not want him for the exact reasons he is now refusing to play for the Oilers. Maybe just maybe the Oilers would have seen the same thing Kekalainen did had they bothered to actually talk to him before drafting him and then promising him top line minutes as an 18 year old. Ball. Dropped.

I only care about the results on the ice and the Oilers have failed, usually disastrously, in the first round time and time again.