This was the plan....

[wbwing]

So why is everyone so down? We sold every player we intended to or had to. Maybe one pick is about 15 spots lower than we wanted.

So the arbiters of all knowing egos in the other fanbases hate us? What else is new?

We aren't spending to the cap? Well, with the $25 millon annex and $40 million down payment, pretend we're spending $65 million more than we are right now. That's a cap team.

Things aren't looking like a lock for the vote? We're the two more weeks crowd. 14 years of this. Even if the vote passes, we all know it isn't over till construction finishes. Money could run out at any moment. No point in being depressed about it early. All of you know that.

I'm totally perplexed why the fan base is acting like this is one of the darker weeks in franchise history. This was the plan. We even have things to enjoy in this last leg. Hayton is finally turning a corner. Most every one had him written off 4 months ago. Soderstrom and Kolyachonok might finally be ready to take the next step. Every player they are calling up will be playing with purpose. Jenik, Smith, Kesselring will all be fighting to make it to the NHL. We aren't getting Bedard or Fantilli. Fine. This is still the best scouting and development group we've ever had. We'll be working in 2-3 new good players every year for the foreseeable future. There's a lot to look forward to. Let's enjoy the team while we have it.

Click to read more...

 

[hbk]

So why is everyone so down? We sold every player we intended to or had to. Maybe one pick is about 15 spots lower than we wanted.

So the arbiters of all knowing egos in the other fanbases hate us? What else is new?

We aren't spending to the cap? Well, with the $25 millon annex and $40 million down payment, pretend we're spending $65 million more than we are right now. That's a cap team.

Things aren't looking like a lock for the vote? We're the two more weeks crowd. 14 years of this. Even if the vote passes, we all know it isn't over till construction finishes. Money could run out at any moment. No point in being depressed about it early. All of you know that.

I'm totally perplexed why the fan base is acting like this is one of the darker weeks in franchise history. This was the plan. We even have things to enjoy in this last leg. Hayton is finally turning a corner. Most every one had him written off 4 months ago. Soderstrom and Kolyachonok might finally be ready to take the next step. Every player they are calling up will be playing with purpose. Jenik, Smith, Kesselring will all be fighting to make it to the NHL. We aren't getting Bedard or Fantilli. Fine. This is still the best scouting and development group we've ever had. We'll be working in 2-3 new good players every year for the foreseeable future. There's a lot to look forward to. Let's enjoy the team while we have it.

I think it’s a matter of having nothing to look forward to until the draft. And worrying about a vote that I can’t even participate in. This has been a loading up of draft picks and it has sunk in on just how long this process is going to take. I’m getting old and will be older. For when we actually look competitive. Like seriously i hope to be in early retirement by that time.

I no longer need to hit twitter ever 6 seconds as well yo see what happened. My productivity outside of hockey will go up but i feel like that bear that is just waking up after hibernating.

 

[wbwing]

And I don't just mean on this board. All over the internet. Today's PHNX was over the top defeatist.

 

[Jamieh]

And I don't just mean on this board. All over the internet. Today's PHNX was over the top defeatist.

When you tell the world that the only way you can fill out a lineup is by having more Cap taken up by retired players than actual players I think you get the response you deserve.

 

[YotesFan47]

Our speculation and outcomes didn't meet up, the returns fell short. It's fine, it happens, but we all spend a decent amount of time on this stuff and had quite a bit of hope. It'll pass.

 

[hbk]

When you tell the world that the only way you can fill out a lineup is by having more Cap taken up by retired players than actual players I think you get the response you deserve.

how did u think we were going to make the cap floor when we had a team full of entry level contracts? This is the part that i saw coming from a mile away. That was always the plan.

 

[SniperHF]

Nuke it all rebuilds can certainly work, but they don't work at least as often if not more so.

I'm just along for the ride at this point and have very little emotional (Re: Fan) investment in this franchise right now.

Just because this was the plan doesn't mean everyone was onboard with it. I certainly was not in full agreement with it. Academic now, already down the road so the only way out is through at this point.

We do not have an obvious franchise player in the system, there's no clear indication we're getting one this draft; again tanking but not enough to actually get a good shot at the prize. And as hbk said, even if this works exactly as planned (it wont') we're looking at a sustained period of 2014 to 2025/6 of completely noncompetitive hockey with a few very minor blips along the way.

So pardon me for not being all that pumped.

 

[Jamieh]

how did u think we were going to make the cap floor when we had a team full of entry level contracts? This is the part that i saw coming from a mile away. That was always the plan.

Oddly I read folks like yourself taking about taking on overpriced players and such all winter. It seems we took on low cost high Cap hit players and there was no money to turn into assets instead. Spin it however you need to keep the faith.

 

[hbk]

Oddly I read folks like yourself taking about taking on overpriced players and such all winter. It seems we took on low cost high Cap hit players and there was no money to turn into assets instead. Spin it however you need to keep the faith.

There’s two tiers to those tyoe of contracts.

Contracts with high cap but no $ because it’s covered by insurance. And contracts with significant $ and possibly term that teams are looking to get out of. You get better assets for the later and not the former. What we saw at the deadline is the former. Those are less exciting because of the return and likely the rationale for acquiring. They are deflating because it also reinforces that the organization’s is a cash strapped franchise that is running extremely lean for at least the next 3 years. That’s depressing.

I much prefer the Gostibehere type trades where the guy can play and you get paid to take him.

 

[PainForShane]

So why is everyone so down? We sold every player we intended to or had to. Maybe one pick is about 15 spots lower than we wanted.

So the arbiters of all knowing egos in the other fanbases hate us? What else is new?

We aren't spending to the cap? Well, with the $25 millon annex and $40 million down payment, pretend we're spending $65 million more than we are right now. That's a cap team.

Things aren't looking like a lock for the vote? We're the two more weeks crowd. 14 years of this. Even if the vote passes, we all know it isn't over till construction finishes. Money could run out at any moment. No point in being depressed about it early. All of you know that.

I'm totally perplexed why the fan base is acting like this is one of the darker weeks in franchise history. This was the plan. We even have things to enjoy in this last leg. Hayton is finally turning a corner. Most every one had him written off 4 months ago. Soderstrom and Kolyachonok might finally be ready to take the next step. Every player they are calling up will be playing with purpose. Jenik, Smith, Kesselring will all be fighting to make it to the NHL. We aren't getting Bedard or Fantilli. Fine. This is still the best scouting and development group we've ever had. We'll be working in 2-3 new good players every year for the foreseeable future. There's a lot to look forward to. Let's enjoy the team while we have it.

I think it's because ppl don't understand basic arithmetic honestly. Which is a weird thing to say to grown-ass adults but here we are. Bill got his ask and then some. Not the same return as some crazy something or other but like... I'm with you we did fine. Maybe something about picking up Voracek's contract says, "oh no, we're broke again!!!" maybe that's it. idk either. *shrug*

 

[Jamieh]

There’s two tiers to those tyoe of contracts.

Contracts with high cap but no $ because it’s covered by insurance. And contracts with significant $ and possibly term that teams are looking to get out of. You get better assets for the later and not the former. What we saw at the deadline is the former. Those are less exciting because of the return and likely the rationale for acquiring. They are deflating because it also reinforces that the organization’s is a cash strapped franchise that is running extremely lean for at least the next 3 years. That’s depressing.

I much prefer the Gostibehere type trades where the guy can play and you get paid to take him.

So like I said in your initial post with a longer description. I believe tge term used all year was "weaponise Cap Space". It was only weaponized to help team not spend any money on players in last week.

 

[RemoAZ]

I haven't been really invested in several years. I went to one game last year because a buddy that lives in Tucson was down and wanted to go. I didn't go to any the year before. I won't be going to any in the east valley so I'm a TV watcher now and I've only watched a couple this and only a couple last year. No desire to watch garbage hockey with no shot of contending now or in the future and that's what we've had for a looooooong time. My only disappointment in the deadline is they didn't dump Schmaltz. I'm waiting until next season to start watching again to HOPEFULLY see a roster that's actually trying to win full of talented prospects and younger players that will be here for a while. I realize what they are doing now and am on board with it. I just don't want to watch this crap either. I just follow it here and read you guys complaining about it.

 

[hbk]

So like I said in your initial post with a longer description. I believe tge term used all year was "weaponise Cap Space". It was only weaponized to help team not spend any money on players in last week.

Sure Vorachek and Webers deal’s didn’t give us any “prime” assets. You are right. It also didn’t cost us any actual $. Like i said i saw it coming but i was hoping for guys like Gostibehere who we can reclaim.

So while we can not be super excited about those contracts we also can’t ignore the other times where we did get substantial assets for players that teams desperately wanted off their books. ladd - 2x2, and a 3rd in this draft. Ghostibehere - 2,3,7 round picks including 2 of our current top 10 prospects including a player in Dudas who is our top defensive prospect imo. Little got us Smith who will be up soon i imagine.

I haven't been really invested in several years. I went to one game last year because a buddy that lives in Tucson was down and wanted to go. I didn't go to any the year before. I won't be going to any in the east valley so I'm a TV watcher now and I've only watched a couple this and only a couple last year. No desire to watch garbage hockey with no shot of contending now or in the future and that's what we've had for a looooooong time. My only disappointment in the deadline is they didn't dump Schmaltz. I'm waiting until next season to start watching again to HOPEFULLY see a roster that's actually trying to win full of talented prospects and younger players that will be here for a while. I realize what they are doing now and am on board with it. I just don't want to watch this crap either. I just follow it here and read you guys complaining about it.

This team actually has been very fun to watch. You’ve missed out.

 

[rt]

So why is everyone so down? We sold every player we intended to or had to. Maybe one pick is about 15 spots lower than we wanted.

So the arbiters of all knowing egos in the other fanbases hate us? What else is new?

We aren't spending to the cap? Well, with the $25 millon annex and $40 million down payment, pretend we're spending $65 million more than we are right now. That's a cap team.

Things aren't looking like a lock for the vote? We're the two more weeks crowd. 14 years of this. Even if the vote passes, we all know it isn't over till construction finishes. Money could run out at any moment. No point in being depressed about it early. All of you know that.

I'm totally perplexed why the fan base is acting like this is one of the darker weeks in franchise history. This was the plan. We even have things to enjoy in this last leg. Hayton is finally turning a corner. Most every one had him written off 4 months ago. Soderstrom and Kolyachonok might finally be ready to take the next step. Every player they are calling up will be playing with purpose. Jenik, Smith, Kesselring will all be fighting to make it to the NHL. We aren't getting Bedard or Fantilli. Fine. This is still the best scouting and development group we've ever had. We'll be working in 2-3 new good players every year for the foreseeable future. There's a lot to look forward to. Let's enjoy the team while we have it.

For me it’s skepticism.

I’m not mad at the trades that were made this week. I’m fine with them. As long as the arena is really getting built and as long as BA is really gonna add more picks for dumps this summer.

If this vote passes, and BA is allowed to add some bad contracts and gets a nice haul of new picks, then I’ll be thrilled. I’ll agree completely that this is just the plan. And a good plan. One that I support.

 

[wbwing]

Right. We did spend money the last bunch of years on actual contracts we were paid to take. That means nothing? We haven't done that under previous ownership. A decade ago the city was writing the actual cash money checks. If Mereulo can write $25 million and $40 million checks, this is an unbelievable improvement. We didn't cut the front office, scouting, development. If we get rid of Keller or Crouse, yeah, then I am depressed. But we haven't. Given the massive cash outlays the team is doing on TED, I get not spending to the cap in the meanwhile. And what, we are supposed to be putting geezers on the ice forever? We are starting to transition those spots to young players. Young players are cheap. It's the right step in the plan and it helps us get to TED. Yay.

 

[rt]

Right. We did spend money the last bunch of years on actual contracts we were paid to take. That means nothing? We haven't done that under previous ownership. A decade ago the city was writing the actual cash money checks. If Mereulo can write $25 million and $40 million checks, this is an unbelievable improvement. We didn't cut the front office, scouting, development. If we get rid of Keller or Crouse, yeah, then I am depressed. But we haven't. Given the massive cash outlays the team is doing on TED, I get not spending to the cap in the meanwhile. And what, we are supposed to be putting geezers on the ice forever? We are starting to transition those spots to young players. Young players are cheap. It's the right step in the plan and it helps us get to TED. Yay.

True. I’ve been duped too many times to have much hope. I’m in wait and see mode. I’ll feel better if the vote passes and if BA is actually able to add more of those contracts for picks. I agree with the concept. I just need to see it before I believe it.

Nuke it all rebuilds can certainly work, but they don't work at least as often if not more so.

I'm just along for the ride at this point and have very little emotional (Re: Fan) investment in this franchise right now.

Just because this was the plan doesn't mean everyone was onboard with it. I certainly was not in full agreement with it. Academic now, already down the road so the only way out is through at this point.

We do not have an obvious franchise player in the system, there's no clear indication we're getting one this draft; again tanking but not enough to actually get a good shot at the prize. And as hbk said, even if this works exactly as planned (it wont') we're looking at a sustained period of 2014 to 2025/6 of completely noncompetitive hockey with a few very minor blips along the way.

So pardon me for not being all that pumped.

If we get Fantilli and a YES on 301, 302 & 303 - we’ll all be jumping up and down.

 

[Sm00chy]

I am perfectly fine with what’s going on. I also don’t buy the concerns surrounding the team being cash-strapped. Why take on bad contracts now when you still have to pay salary… when you can take those same or similar contracts on in the off-season?

I believe BA and his staff view draft picks as currency. BA was on with Marek and specifically mentioned using picks to “buy players”. Once management starts to see some of these prospects like Cooley, Guenther, Hayton, Soderstrom, etc. start to turn a corner you use those 2026 or 2025 picks to accelerate the rebuild via “purchasing players”. We are still 3 years from seriously contending for a playoff spot IMO.

 

[rt]

 

[Jakey53]

how did u think we were going to make the cap floor when we had a team full of entry level contracts? This is the part that i saw coming from a mile away. That was always the plan.

That's the silver lining. We get to see more kids instead of dumpster pick ups like the last two years. So we get Cooley and Guenther full time, but who else that is worth a hill of beans can be added? I guess that is where the dumpster pick ups come in.

 

[hbk]

That's the silver lining. We get to see more kids instead of dumpster pick ups like the last two years. So we get Cooley and Guenther full time, but who else that is worth a hill of beans can be added? I guess that is where the dumpster pick ups come in.

Soderstrom, Kolyachonok, McCartnery, Jenik

 

[Prestigeworldwide]

Well, were all in on tanking at this point. Arizona after the deadline showing up to the rinks with the walk of shame. Feeling like dirty sluts going hard for Bedard.
Sweet!

 

[Llewzaher]

I think it's because ppl don't understand basic arithmetic honestly. Which is a weird thing to say to grown-ass adults but here we are. Bill got his ask and then some. Not the same return as some crazy something or other but like... I'm with you we did fine. Maybe something about picking up Voracek's contract says, "oh no, we're broke again!!!" maybe that's it. idk either. *shrug*

I think if this was any other draft things would have played out differently…I think with this draft, you need to ensure you finish low. You also had teams that were very reluctant to offer up the picks we were used to for one… you had teams that were all in but were cap strapped… they wouldn’t do the deal unless we took money back… the problem was not totally that we couldn’t take cash back , but they wanted us to take cash back for free. Bill said himself that if he took that cash / contract back it would hinder him in the off season , because taking that same cash contract then would get him another 2nd round pick where as now would get him nothing. The problem is not everyone understands that .. and it makes us look bad. We tire of all the hate from social media and tend to start believing what the Canadian media is saying as well as the uninformed mob posting on the main boards.

I think that sitting Jakob Chrychrun for trade related purposes early caused the ball start to rolling for every team to start making deals way earlier than in the past ..leaving the Canadian media a little perturbed with nothing to talk ab on trade deadline day.. of course this just speculation on my part.

people should me more upset with the eastern teams who sold a lot for the arms race. Some of these teams face each other and will be out in the first round.

EDIT: my biggest concern with all of this is …. How do up and coming kids who’s lives revolve around social media feel about this organization? Bedard for one…If we won the lottery ..I can’t imagine the bad press and controversy… as someone said before.. quietly draft Fantilli and slip under the radar.

 

[PainForShane]

So... had a think about this last night. A few things.

Bill couldn't take back money in the Chychrun trade. That could mean 2 things:

1) Maybe ownership is broke / pinching pennies. Imo pretty clear at least that they're pinching pennies (see Weber / Voracek deals) but maybe they're broke also none of us really know. Hopefully not too broke bc of that 40m non-refundable payment which is (hopefully!) coming after the Tempe vote in May

2) Maybe not taking money back actually was strategic -- in one of these interviews Bill mentioned has a budget, also mentioned taking money back in the summer tends to get better returns so if he's taking back money, maybe easier to do it in the summer in separate deals. Personally don't know enough about this to verify but this argument seems it makes sense

Anyway it's probably a bit of both but none of us really know. What I do agree with is that I think retention on Chych would've been a bad idea because it ties up another retention slot for 3 years. Meaning we would only have 1 retention slot left (because OEL), that hurts the team's flexibility a lot for the next 3 years. But if LA says something like, "we'll throw in Petersen and another 1st, good idea for you also because maybe it helps you get to the floor" my kneejerk reaction is to say I'd prefer those types of trades rather than these Weber / Voracek ones.

Also, keep in mind the $40m upfront payment due in May -- for number context that's basically half of the entire cap in one single up front payment (significant bc usually salaries spread out throughout the year). That's a lot!!! If Meruelo's taking out a loan to pay that (which would be normal), these Weber-type deals really clean up the balance sheet which would probably mean slightly better loan terms over the course of the loan. Put another way, if Voracek's contract is fully paid by insurance he's saving 16.65m in Voracek, Weber, Little next year (because cap hit is 16.65m more than their salaries), his accountant and the prospective bank loan people are probably very happy.

Also the $26.9m LTIR figure widely reported in the media is misleading because Ladd (5.5m) will be off the books next year, imo media should probably be reporting $16.65M instead which is the max actual money savings (ie if we end up paying 0 for Voracek, but if we'd be paying 50% or something so that 16.65 would be even lower not sure how the insurance actually works). Different discussion though.

****

TLDR:

1) The upcoming 40m payment is a lot of money, probably even for an owner of a hockey team. So, Meruelo is trading for low-cash / high cap contracts like Weber / Voracek to save some money / potentially get better loan terms -- I don't like it, but I can understand it (esp because his gate receipts ie revenue are limited for the next few years)

2) WRT whether we are actually broke -- we're already at next year's cap floor once we sign our RFAs incl Connor Ingram, Maccelli etc, so let's see what Bill does over the summer. Personally am very curious to see if we do more of those Stecher / Nemeth type deals -- but if it were me (and if I had the cash), I would be taking LA's first along with Cal Petersen all summer long

Let's see how we end up going. In the meantime let's go any team playing against the SENS!!!! Ha.

 

[TheLegend]

So... had a think about this last night. A few things.

Bill couldn't take back money in the Chychrun trade. That could mean 2 things:

1) Maybe ownership is broke / pinching pennies. Imo pretty clear at least that they're pinching pennies (see Weber / Voracek deals) but maybe they're broke also none of us really know. Hopefully not too broke bc of that 40m non-refundable payment which is (hopefully!) coming after the Tempe vote in May

2) Maybe not taking money back actually was strategic -- in one of these interviews Bill mentioned has a budget, also mentioned taking money back in the summer tends to get better returns so if he's taking back money, maybe easier to do it in the summer in separate deals. Personally don't know enough about this to verify but this argument seems it makes sense

Anyway it's probably a bit of both but none of us really know. What I do agree with is that I think retention on Chych would've been a bad idea because it ties up another retention slot for 3 years. Meaning we would only have 1 retention slot left (because OEL), that hurts the team's flexibility a lot for the next 3 years. But if LA says something like, "we'll throw in Petersen and another 1st, good idea for you also because maybe it helps you get to the floor" my kneejerk reaction is to say I'd prefer those types of trades rather than these Weber / Voracek ones.

Also, keep in mind the $40m upfront payment due in May -- for number context that's basically half of the entire cap in one single up front payment (significant bc usually salaries spread out throughout the year). That's a lot!!! If Meruelo's taking out a loan to pay that (which would be normal), these Weber-type deals really clean up the balance sheet which would probably mean slightly better loan terms over the course of the loan. Put another way, if Voracek's contract is fully paid by insurance he's saving 16.65m in Voracek, Weber, Little next year (because cap hit is 16.65m more than their salaries), his accountant and the prospective bank loan people are probably very happy.

Also the $26.9m LTIR figure widely reported in the media is misleading because Ladd (5.5m) will be off the books next year, imo media should probably be reporting $16.65M instead which is the max actual money savings (ie if we end up paying 0 for Voracek, but if we'd be paying 50% or something so that 16.65 would be even lower not sure how the insurance actually works). Different discussion though.

****

TLDR:

1) The upcoming 40m payment is a lot of money, probably even for an owner of a hockey team. So, Meruelo is trading for low-cash / high cap contracts like Weber / Voracek to save some money / potentially get better loan terms -- I don't like it, but I can understand it (esp because his gate receipts ie revenue are limited for the next few years)

2) WRT whether we are actually broke -- we're already at next year's cap floor once we sign our RFAs incl Connor Ingram, Maccelli etc, so let's see what Bill does over the summer. Personally am very curious to see if we do more of those Stecher / Nemeth type deals -- but if it were me (and if I had the cash), I would be taking LA's first along with Cal Petersen all summer long

Let's see how we end up going. In the meantime let's go any team playing against the SENS!!!! Ha.

Currently we have all three retention spots used.

Come summer two will open back up. Retaining on Chychrun would have locked one of them up for two more years.

And that third one has 5 more to go.

Flexibility.

Budget is also a factor…. There’s $35 million already in to be at Mullett and another $40 million come May if the Tempe vote passes. And that’s not refundable.

Meruelo may be wealthy but he doesn’t have a piggy bank to the level of Scrooge McDuck either.

 

[rt]

We will know the answer this summer. If the arena vote passes and BA is able to load up on picks for bad contracts, we’ll have full clarity on the last 10 days.