Post-Game Talk: This is how Couts does it.

[Peacekeeper]

I'm not a Hagg fan, mostly cause I'm high on Morin and thought he more than earned his keep. I was just spit balling at the fact that Sanheim has his minutes cut by the time Hakstol goes balls to the wall turtle mode, and maybe that makes his advanced stats look good. If you say it's not I guess I gotta believe ya

Sanheim has kinda been snake bitten and seems confused on what he's allowed to do offensively.. kinda like Ghost last year. He should be played to his strengths and DEVELOPED to make him even better, and smarter for future situations. Hopefully he's being coached up while watching, but I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't even told him what they wanna see him do better

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I literally linked you to the articles with the math. It doesn’t. Your gut doesn’t trump data. Neither does mine for that matter.

You don’t see this because you don’t want to see it.

If there was anyone on the Flyers who had an argument to be a potential outlier, it’s AMac.

I read them. Did you?

The conclusion was that on a small scale (like 40 games into the season, let’s say) the zone start impact on Corsi is “quite large.”

It was after five seasons of “aggregate data” that the impact was much less.

But, in the aggregate, the players with the most extreme defensive zone starts improved the most.

So they actually support my points. Thanks.

 

[BernieParent]

I see the Encyclopedia "Yer dumb"-ica is still going strongly. I enjoyed watching these 2 wins, with some strong play and despite continued questionable personnel decisions; however, I am confused how to approach games. Ron Hextall's off-season moves seemed to indicate that this would be a building year. Dave Hakstol's email filter may have moved that memo to the trash folder, though.

 

[deadhead]

Provorov plays the most minutes on the team at 20.
Ghost now plays the second most at 24
Konecny is on the first line at 20.
Patrick is being fed whatever minutes he can handle at 19.
Hagg is getting top 4 minutes at 22.

I dunno, doesn't look like they shy away from using kids.
Sanheim will get more PT, but right now he's getting the "tough love" treatment.
He'll get top 4 minutes by next year if Myers doesn't steal them.

Most young players are screwups waiting to happen, even Provorov.
Most coaches grit their teeth when they play young players.
I don't see anything unusual happening here.

 

[MarAlain MongYeo]

Having Sanheim sit for a few games here and there doesn't kill his development as a player and nor does it destroy our chances of competing for the playoffs, but Id have to question what the point is of even having him still on the roster is if he's not going to play. He had a poor game vs Florida there's no denying it and probably deserved to be benched vs Tampa, but I think he's learned his lesson by now. You could point to our record since we've benched him as a reason not to ice him, but has Brandon Manning (who to be fair has at least looked decent these past 5 games) been that much of a factor as to why? I certainly don't think so. But if for whatever reason the coach thinks he has, then the only sensible thing to do is send the Sandman back down to the Valley of Lehigh.

 

[BillDineen]

For the record, Lehtera played well in his limited minutes even strength. The bar is pretty low, but he had a couple great passes.

 

[trostol]

not sure i like this bye week thing

 

[Foggy14]

I don't hate Hagg. He seems like a good kid who's trying his best. And in a couple of years, I can see him as a decent (and not too expensive) #6, or #7.

My problem is with Hexy and Hak who promoted Robert over two guys who, in my opinion, outplayed him in camp. In the opinion of our scouts, those two guys (Sanheim and Morin) also have higher upsides, or else they wouldn't have been picked in the first round, while Robert was taken in the second.

Why did Robert get the nod? It's been postulated by others, and I think it's true, that he's regarded as a "safer" player who won't make the mistakes that Sanheim, or Morin, would make. In the NHL of 20 years ago, I could see that logic. Today, I think it's a miscalculation.

Contrary to our popular reputation, the current Flyers aren't big, or bad, or bullies. When we slow down and try to play a "safe" game, we get smoked. When we're playing well, we're skating, attacking and playing an up tempo game. Fast exits, and accurate passes, from the defensive zone are key to playing this type of game. Of Sanheim, Morin and Hagg, who would rank last in playing that type of game? Hagg.

I would much rather see Sanheim and Morin learning (and, yes, making some mistakes in the process) and get the playing time this season over a perceived "safer" defenseman with lower upside.

That's my opinion and I'm sticking with it.

 

[OzFlyers]

I don't hate Hagg. He seems like a good kid who's trying his best. And in a couple of years, I can see him as a decent (and not too expensive) #6, or #7.

I would much rather see Sanheim and Morin learning (and, yes, making some mistakes in the process) and get the playing time this season over a perceived "safer" defenseman with lower upside.

That's my opinion and I'm sticking with it.

 

[RANKKA]

Sanheim - Hägg, amac gtfo

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I read them. Did you?

The conclusion was that on a small scale (like 40 games into the season, let’s say) the zone start impact on Corsi is “quite large.”

It was after five seasons of “aggregate data” that the impact was much less.

But, in the aggregate, the players with the most extreme defensive zone starts improved the most.

So they actually support my points. Thanks.

You read those three articles and that's where you ended up?

I'm just going to let this one drop because there's nowhere else to go from here. Have a good day!

 

[BritainStix]

oh wow, another Sanheim vs Hagg thread.........like this wasn't predictable.

 

[Appleyard]

I'm not a in depth stats guy, but maybe Sanheims Corsi is so high because he is benched by the 3rd period

Haggs is so low, because we are in turtle mode, and his limitations have already been stated

Logically there is sense in that.

But score adjusted corsi accounts for that, and their score adjusted corsi:

Sanheim: 53.56% (down from 54.47%)
Hagg: 46.23% (up from 45.72%)

So the numbers do agree with you, but the impact on their stats due to this is not big either way.

 

[Appleyard]

I literally linked you to the articles with the math. It doesn’t. Your gut doesn’t trump data. Neither does mine for that matter.

You don’t see this because you don’t want to see it.

If there was anyone on the Flyers who had an argument to be a potential outlier, it’s AMac.

Yeh, I actually think there is some argument that with AMac his usage does hurt him.

And while he is frustrating with his back pedaling his break-up numbers are kind of surprisingly 'decent' as are his zone exits.

I mean, I am not saying that he is a good defenseman, and Hägg is better once in his own zone than AMac. But I can understand more why an NHL team would see value in AMac in a vacuum as a player.

The thing there that give me hope is that:

If Hägg could even get to AMac standards in terms of denying zone entries and effecting zone exits (and he is more naturally skilled than AMac) he would certainly be a good bottom pairing defenseman.

 

[BritainStix]

I think people are very, very quick to forget that Hagg is also 40 games into his NHL career. It's not like he cannot learn to improve his defensive ability or his puck handling. It's not like he wasn't a decent puck handler in juniors.

 

[Appleyard]

I think people are very, very quick to forget that Hagg is also 40 games into his NHL career. It's not like he cannot learn to improve his defensive ability or his puck handling. It's not like he wasn't a decent puck handler in juniors.

The thing that concerns me is that he was not exactly great in that regard in the AHL. Morin for example was far better at outletting.

I mean, Hägg did show puckskills at junior levels, heck, he did at WJC-20 at the highest level of junior hockey.

But since playing vs men on smaller ice he has not. Which makes you think it simply might be an IQ issue, and he struggles to process the game fast enough to make decisions well under pressure. That is my bet having watched him for a long time...

I would not be half as concerned going forward if in the AHL he was ~Morin level in terms of exiting zone and denying entries.

I mean, I said about Chris Tanev. Hägg has more 'skill' than Tanev... but he is not even half as effective with the puck on his stick.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

You read those three articles and that's where you ended up?

I'm just going to let this one drop because there's nowhere else to go from here. Have a good day!

It’s exactly what the articles say. Clearly you & others who are citing them to argue zone starts only minimally affect Corsi either didn’t read them or didn’t understand them.

I quote: “on a small scale the effect of zone starts can actually be rather large.”

The article only says the effects of zone starts for 80% of the league end up around .5% *after using 5 seasons of aggregate data.*

And even then, the players with the most extreme defensive zone starts were the ones to improve the most over those 5 years.

So you missed the point entirely. Zone starts have a “quite large” impact on Corsi over smaller sample sizes. Which is exactly what I had figured. Hagg’s & Sanheim’s highly disparate zone starts over 40 games, or even one season, have a “quite large” impact on their Corsis.

So thanks again for the articles, even though you misunderstood them. I hope everyone now stops misusing the data.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Oh boy.

 

[kudymen]

this is awesome

 

[deadhead]

But since playing vs men on smaller ice he has not. Which makes you think it simply might be an IQ issue, and he struggles to process the game fast enough to make decisions well under pressure. That is my bet having watched him for a long time...

I would not be half as concerned going forward if in the AHL he was ~Morin level in terms of exiting zone and denying entries.

I mean, I said about Chris Tanev. Hägg has more 'skill' than Tanev... but he is not even half as effective with the puck on his stick.

Players have different learning curves, some have great instincts, others can compensate to some extent through experience and hard work. Film study is one way, you watch enough games and you start understanding what different players and teams do, and can anticipate faster.

Hagg may have some processing limits, which means you want to spoon feed him responsibility, first master the D-zone, then outlet passes, finally when to attack in the O-zone.
Sanheim seem to have some processing issues, as evidenced by his slow starts at every level, but it doesn't seem to take him a full season to get up to speed, so hopefully he'll be less mistake prone the second half.

One problem we have is we only see results, coaches know where a player is supposed to be in every situation, so they know when a player is screwing up even when the opposition doesn't take advantage - it shows up on film even if it doesn't show up on the stat sheet.

 

[Striiker]

oh wow, another Sanheim vs Hagg thread.........like this wasn't predictable.

"WOW STOP TALKING ABOUT HAGG GUYS!!!"



A few minutes later...



"Heres what I think about Hagg..."

I think people are very, very quick to forget that Hagg is also 40 games into his NHL career. It's not like he cannot learn to improve his defensive ability or his puck handling. It's not like he wasn't a decent puck handler in juniors.

 

[Curufinwe]

For the record, Lehtera played well in his limited minutes even strength. The bar is pretty low, but he had a couple great passes.

I still want him waived and replaced by Oskar, but he wasn’t bad yesterday.

 

[Appleyard]

I still want him waived and replaced by Oskar, but he wasn’t bad yesterday.

His problems are all from the waist down.

Guy has NHL hands and an NHL brain. It actually must be really frustrating to be him. He lost a step and that took him from a solid 3rd liner to just not really capable of keeping up with play in the NHL.

I think he knows what he is supposed to do and is pretty smart, but just cannot get there to do it.

 

[hrocks66]

"WOW STOP TALKING ABOUT HAGG GUYS!!!"



A few minutes later...



"Heres what I think about Hagg..."





[/QUOTE

 

[Striiker]

His problems are all from the waist down.

Guy has NHL hands and an NHL brain. It actually must be really frustrating to be him. He lost a step and that took him from a solid 3rd liner to just not really capable of keeping up with play in the NHL.

I think he knows what he is supposed to do and is pretty smart, but just cannot get there to do it.

It's sad to think that this could be Stromes future if he doesn't make a giant step forward skating wise.

Wasted skills because of a lack of mobility.