They can't actually be this bad right?

[omglolnub]

Nolan is just not a very good coach. The game is completely changing towards the analytic side and he won't even take a peek at it, which pisses me off.

But also makes him a prime tank commander Nolan's only here to make sure the players still give a little bit of a **** about the games in this throwaway season, unlike what happened with RonRol last year. I have no doubt Nolan will get turfed in favor of an actual coach when the Sabres want to make a go of things in ? years.

 

[couture23]

But also makes him a prime tank commander Nolan's only here to make sure the players still give a little bit of a **** about the games in this throwaway season, unlike what happened with RonRol last year. I have no doubt Nolan will get turfed in favor of an actual coach when the Sabres want to make a go of things in ? years.

Well there is no way in hell Nolan gets a 2nd contract. At least in my mind.

 

[Sabre the Win]

McEichel changes that next year.

Even then we will still be ****. 2016 I still expect to be drafting in the top 5. If the team plays like this and there's no real progression this year don't expect leap and bounds playoff expectations the next. Quotes like this make me facepalm this tank. One person won't make that much of a difference regardless who it is over the course of an off season.

I actually will be surprised if Buffalo makes any kind of post season run prior to 2018.

Yeah I said it. Book it.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Well there is no way in hell Nolan gets a 2nd contract. At least in my mind.

He's been set up to be a patsy. I'm sure he must realize this but it was his entry back into NHL.

He'll get next year to get team close to playoffs or get fired. Not sure that's fair but he took the job.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

Even then we will still be ****. 2016 I still expect to be drafting in the top 5. If the team plays like this and there's no real progression this year don't expect leap and bounds playoff expectations the next. Quotes like this make me facepalm this tank. One person won't make that much of a difference regardless who it is over the course of an off season.

I actually will be surprised if Buffalo makes any kind of post season run prior to 2018.

Yeah I said it. Book it.

Little goals to reach the big one.

McEichel is a game changer because the second we bring one of those two into the fold, the goals change.

First goal: get McEichel.

Contigent on McEichel, next goal: you use the surplus you've built to go get a couple scoring wingers (E. Kane, Voracek, Oshie, etc.) and a bona fide starting goalie (Niemi).

Then you start learning how to win hockey games.

 

[joshjull]

Nolan is just not a very good coach. The game is completely changing towards the analytic side and he won't even take a peek at it, which pisses me off.

Analytics is not a tool for coaches in any meaningful way right now in game. Nor are they likely to be any time soon in game. I think some posters spit out analytics and don't really seem to understand how they are being used in the NHL. Its a tool for GMs to use to make the best use of the money they spend on building their teams. Analytics requires substantial sample sizes to be informative. The larger the sample the more informative.

It was funny to read tweets from the guy from BehindtheNet and from Cory Pronman (strong analytics advocates) basically trying to reign in the ridiculous reaction of fans to their teams' summer analytics hires. As if they were going to come up with some magical algorithm to suddenly make their teams better at possessing the puck.

Analytics can help a GM put together a strong puck possession team by giving him a database of info on any player he is looking to add to his team. But a coach isn't going to make in game decisions using the same type of stats that require large sample sizes to be informative. They can use them to challenge ideas they had of certain lines and certain matechups, etc. But again that takes a sample size. As in at various points of the season it can be used. And as long as the guys he gives the reigns to for systems and the tactical side use it (no indication they don't). Then it doesn't matter what Nolan thinks of analytics

 

[tsujimoto74]

I think if you look at what's gone and what replaced it, that it's pretty clear that this team would be worse.

The only real "upgrade" was Gionta over Ott and honestly, that's not looking so hot right now either.

Yup.

Neuvirth<<Miller
Gorges<Ehrhoff
Moulson=Vanek/Moulson
Messzaros<Tallinder
Benoit=McBain
Gionta>Ott

I don't think there was much disagreement about those changes though. I think a lot of people were fooled into thinking getting rid of guys like Leino, D'Agostini, Conacher would be addition by subtraction. But that kind of only works if you replace them with guys who are much better, which we haven't.

 

[joshjull]

Yup.

Neuvirth<<Miller
Gorges<Ehrhoff
Moulson=Vanek/Moulson
Messzaros<Tallinder
Benoit=McBain
Gionta>Ott

I don't think there was much disagreement about those changes though. I think a lot of people were fooled into thinking getting rid of guys like Leino, D'Agostini, Conacher would be addition by subtraction. But that kind of only works if you replace them with guys who are much better, which we haven't.

I always love these player for player swaps. You just pick the match ups you want to make your argument. Other than goalie its kinda of pointless without context.

For example, why is Gorges replacing Hoff and not Tallinder?. You know they guy whose place and role in the lineup he actually took. In that context its actually an improvement that has allowed Myers to play more and replace Hoff's minutes. The biggest difference for me is the fact that Pysyk didn't start the season here. I expected him to be in the top 4. And yes that would have made a difference. Losing Hoff, McBain and Tallinder (our top 4 dmen in minutes played last year) and replacing them with Pysyk, Gorges and The Mess should have been at minimum a wash. Then our last 3 dmen would be Weber, Risto and Benoit with good young players and vets as depth in Rochester. Instead Pysk is hurt and we get Benoit and The Mess playing together. EDIT: I admit I'm putting a lot of faith in Pysyk but I feel he can handle what I'm expecting of him.

 

[joshjull]

Even then we will still be ****. 2016 I still expect to be drafting in the top 5. If the team plays like this and there's no real progression this year don't expect leap and bounds playoff expectations the next. Quotes like this make me facepalm this tank. One person won't make that much of a difference regardless who it is over the course of an off season.

I actually will be surprised if Buffalo makes any kind of post season run prior to 2018.

Yeah I said it. Book it.

Sure one player alone won't turn things around. But how long the rebuild takes all depends on how Murray proceeds after this season. Part of that will be how he handles the young talent. As in how soon do they play in the NHL or does he get more placeholder vets, etc. Part will be how aggressive he wants to be when players become available. He has more assets than probably any team giving him the strongest position next offseason to acquire any players that become available.


Murray can greatly transform this team with the assets at his disposal if he chooses to be aggressive. For obvious reasons he didn't do it this past summer.

 

[snowshoes1818]

Analytics is not a tool for coaches in any meaningful way right now in game. Nor are they likely to be any time soon in game. I think some posters spit out analytics and don't really seem to understand how they are being used in the NHL. Its a tool for GMs to use to make the best use of the money they spend on building their teams. Analytics requires substantial sample sizes to be informative. The larger the sample the more informative.

I just wanted to step in and note that while you are completely right that they are NOT used in any meaningful way by most coaches in game, that doesn't mean that such statistics couldn't be used in game very soon. Implementation of SportVU cameras a la what the NBA is now rolling out synced real time with databases could tell teams whether a goalie is favoring one side of the net or the other, could help break down how teams are defending zone entry situations (among others). Similarly, implementation of biometric systems (also on the NBA board and currently in use among many teams in practices) could change the way coaches rest their players in game, optimize shift changes, and so forth.

One of the obstacles to utilizing stats in game lies in sample size fallacy. Another lies in the lack of depth of many of the stats we are aware. But these not necessarily be true for the long run.

And I think you're in agreement on this point. But just want to point out that "aren't" doesn't mean "can't" and doesn't mean "shouldn't." And "aren't in game" doesn't necessarily mean "aren't out of game," else "can't out of game," else "shouldn't out of game."

 

[SiDC1]

In fact, Sabres defense/goaltending hasn't been that awful. Looking back at the last season, Sabres were ranked 25th in Goals Against. It's the offense that has been atrocious.

I don't know your definition of awful is but 25th isn't great, heck it isn't good. The only reason why the Sabres were not dead last was because of Miller. Using GA to tell how well your defense plays is not the best way IMO. I person use shot against to tell how our defense plays. That is how many shots are getting through to the goalie. Right now the Sabres are dead last with 183, thirty more that the second worse. That is currently worse, by about 2, than the Sabres were last season. Matter of fact the Sabres are worse than last years worse team, Toronto.

 

[SiDC1]

Even then we will still be ****. 2016 I still expect to be drafting in the top 5. If the team plays like this and there's no real progression this year don't expect leap and bounds playoff expectations the next. Quotes like this make me facepalm this tank. One person won't make that much of a difference regardless who it is over the course of an off season.

I actually will be surprised if Buffalo makes any kind of post season run prior to 2018.

Yeah I said it. Book it.

I 100% agree with this statement. It drives me nuts when people believe that on guy will make a whole team change. There is so much that is bad, it will take several years to get the right pieces in place. That's if our rookie GM makes all the right decisions, which will never happen

 

[ZeroPT*]

]I always love these player for player swaps. You just pick the match ups you want to make your argument.[/B] Other than goalie its kinda of pointless without context.

For example, why is Gorges replacing Hoff and not Tallinder?. You know they guy whose place and role in the lineup he actually took. In that context its actually an improvement that has allowed Myers to play more and replace Hoff's minutes. The biggest difference for me is the fact that Pysyk didn't start the season here. I expected him to be in the top 4. And yes that would have made a difference. Losing Hoff, McBain and Tallinder (our top 4 dmen in minutes played last year) and replacing them with Pysyk, Gorges and The Mess should have been at minimum a wash. Then our last 3 dmen would be Weber, Risto and Benoit with good young players and vets as depth in Rochester. Instead Pysk is hurt and we get Benoit and The Mess playing together. EDIT: I admit I'm putting a lot of faith in Pysyk but I feel he can handle what I'm expecting of him.

Isn't that exactly what you're doing though?

Why is it illogical that Gorges was acquired to be a top 2 LHD, like Ehrhoff was? it makes perfect sense.

 

[joshjull]

Isn't that exactly what you're doing though?

Why is it illogical that Gorges was acquired to be a top 2 LHD, like Ehrhoff was? it makes perfect sense.

I'm giving an explanation or context as to where I think someone's role will be thus fleshing out who they are replacing. I'm not simply posting player X >>> player Y. And no one in their right mind should think Gorges was brought in to replace Hoff's role and minutes. We lost 3 of our top 4 dmen in minutes played (Hoiff, McBain and Tallinder). The one who's minutes and role from last year that matches up most with whats going to be asked of Gorges is Tallinder.

 

[ZeroPT*]

I'm giving an explanation or context as to where I think someone's role will be thus fleshing out who they are replacing. I'm not simply posting player X >>> player Y. And no one in their right mind should think Gorges was brought in to replace Hoff's role and minutes. We lost 3 of our top 4 dmen in minutes played (Hoiff, McBain and Tallinder). The one who's minutes and role from last year that matches up most with whats going to be asked of Gorges is Tallinder.

No. Gorges was brought in to take Hoff's minutes. Tallinder never played the minutes Gorges is.
Tallinder never played the 24+ minutes a night that Gorges has thus far, Ehrhoff did. Pysyk is replacing Tallinder on the 2nd pair.

 

[joshjull]

No. Gorges was brought in to take Hoff's minutes. Tallinder never played the minutes Gorges is.
Tallinder never played the 24+ minutes a night that Gorges has thus far, Ehrhoff did. Pysyk is replacing Tallinder on the 2nd pair.

Hoff played big minutes at ES and also was on the PK and PP units. The guy taking those minutes is Myers. Gorges does not play on the PP. And Gorges is not playing 24+mins a night.

Last year Tallinder's atoi
ES --> 16:40
PK --> 2:15
PP ---> 0:03
Tot --> 18:59

Hoff last year
ES --> 17:52
PK --> 2:35
PP --> 3:27
Tot --> 23:54
Led all dmen in each category

Gorges so far
ES --> 16:41
PK --> 4:27
PP ---> 0:14
Tot --> 21:23
He's 3rd in total ice time behind Myers and Benoit

Myers so far
ES --> 17:15
PK --> 4:20
PP --> 4:13
Tot --> 25:49


Its fairly obvious Gorges is being used like Talinder was. He just has a lot more PK minutes than Tallinder had but its still early so that average could go down a bit. Neither plays on the PP and they were both Myers primary partner. Its equally obvious that Myers has taken over Hoff's role, minutes and a bit more.

In fact the numbers show Benoit has taken up Myers' minutes from last year. The Mess has taken McBain's. I had hoped Pysyk would have been the one taking up Myers minutes.

So using the greater than less than model

Myers > Hoff
Benoit << Myers of last year
The Mess < McBain
Gorges >> Talinder

But thats so far with a small sample size for guys like Benoit and The Mess. Both whom could have their roles altered as the season progresses. The only locks to stay in their roles are Gorges/Myers.

 

[joshjull]

I just wanted to step in and note that while you are completely right that they are NOT used in any meaningful way by most coaches in game, that doesn't mean that such statistics couldn't be used in game very soon. Implementation of SportVU cameras a la what the NBA is now rolling out synced real time with databases could tell teams whether a goalie is favoring one side of the net or the other, could help break down how teams are defending zone entry situations (among others).

Teams already do this. They have video departments that watch hours and hours of film to breakdown things like goalie tendencies, how teams defend zone entries, etc. They also watch them in game as well and update the bench or report things between periods. As the guy from BehindTheNet (Can't remember his name) pointed out. There really isn't much left that isn't already being analyzed in hockey.

Similarly, implementation of biometric systems (also on the NBA board and currently in use among many teams in practices) could change the way coaches rest their players in game, optimize shift changes, and so forth.

But how? Thats the thing. In the NBA it makes sense because of how the game is played. The starters play the bulk of the game but can get a break from time time. So knowing how to optimize their play by monitoring something like a Biofeedback during a game would be very helpful. But NHL teams don't rest their top players like the NBA does. The top NHL players play roughly 20-25mins a night with a few outliers above that. Thats less than half the game.

NHLers play in 45-50sec shifts of high output compared to the NBA's long "shifts" of lower output throughout. The players in both leagues play at different paces and fatigue/recover in very different ways. At the end of a hockey game the better players are likely to be the more fatigued because they played more of those high output shifts. But they will still be the ones going out in key situations late.

One of the obstacles to utilizing stats in game lies in sample size fallacy. Another lies in the lack of depth of many of the stats we are aware. But these not necessarily be true for the long run.

Most things a team needs to know (like the things your referenced) before and during a game are already known and being applied. The stats I'm talking about are Corsi, Fenwick, QOC, etc require large sample sizes to be accurately applied. Thats why they are never likely to be used in game. As in a team isn't going to break up a line because their Corsi was bad in the first period.

Cory Pronman had a good couple tweet recently on analytics.

Corey Pronman ‏@coreypronman 3h3 hours ago
I regret this but a common mistake. Kadri doesn't have "good analytics". He has good stats. Ananlytics is analysis http://www.torontosun.com/2014/10/18/wings-gm-pushed-babcock-into-altering-approach …

Corey Pronman ‏@coreypronman 3h3 hours ago
Corsi is not analytics, it's a descriptive statistic. Saying Corsi persists years to year better than goal-based data is analytics.

And I think you're in agreement on this point. But just want to point out that "aren't" doesn't mean "can't" and doesn't mean "shouldn't." And "aren't in game" doesn't necessarily mean "aren't out of game," else "can't out of game," else "shouldn't out of game."

The type of stat I'm referring to will not be used in game. There is also no low hanging fruit left in hockey analytics. No magic stats everyone missed that will revolutionize the game.

To steal Nolan's line. Hockey is a science but its not rocket science. When you add more talent your advanced stats will improve. There really is no secret here. Where the analytics helps is to find the type of players that fit what you need. When your GM goes out and gets those players your team will be better at possession and have better advanced stats.


EDIT: To put it another way as it pertains to analytcis not really pertaining to coaches in a big way but definitely a GM. Just look at our beloved Sabres. Murray stated that the vet free agents he was going to sign this summer were not going to be popular with the analytics crowd. Meaning they weren't going to be great possession players. But he got them to provide vet leadership as well as a means to shelter the youngsters. When you include our other poor possession young players like Ennis, Hodgson, among others. Its not shocking we aren't great in possession. But there are some gems on the roster who are strong possession players (Girgs, Myers, Risto, Reinhart). Problem is there isn't enough of them. As Murray becomes more aggressive in improving the team and bringing in better possession players. We will become better in all those fancy stats and also become a better team. And the coach will have had little to do with it.

 

[ZeroPT*]

Hoff played big minutes at ES and also was on the PK and PP units. The guy taking those minutes is Myers. Gorges does not play on the PP. And Gorges is not playing 24+mins a night.

Last year Tallinder's atoi
ES --> 16:40
PK --> 2:15
PP ---> 0:03
Tot --> 18:59

Hoff last year
ES --> 17:52
PK --> 2:35
PP --> 3:27
Tot --> 23:54
Led all dmen in each category

Gorges so far
ES --> 16:41
PK --> 4:27
PP ---> 0:14
Tot --> 21:23
He's 3rd in total ice time behind Myers and Benoit

Myers so far
ES --> 17:15
PK --> 4:20
PP --> 4:13
Tot --> 25:49


Its fairly obvious Gorges is being used like Talinder was. He just has a lot more PK minutes than Tallinder had but its still early so that average could go down a bit. Neither plays on the PP and they were both Myers primary partner. Its equally obvious that Myers has taken over Hoff's role, minutes and a bit more.

In fact the numbers show Benoit has taken up Myers' minutes from last year. The Mess has taken McBain's. I had hoped Pysyk would have been the one taking up Myers minutes.

So using the greater than less than model

Myers > Hoff
Benoit << Myers of last year
The Mess < McBain
Gorges >> Talinder

But thats so far with a small sample size for guys like Benoit and The Mess. Both whom could have their roles altered as the season progresses. The only locks to stay in their roles are Gorges/Myers.

Gorges minutes are closer to those of Ehrhoff than Hank. You also have to factor in zone starts. Gorges gets the tough assignments, alongside Myers. Hank was fairly sheltered most of last year.

In general, Gorges has taken more of Ehrhoff's role to tallinder. And it's a clear downgrade.

 

[joshjull]

Gorges minutes are closer to those of Ehrhoff than Hank. You also have to factor in zone starts. Gorges gets the tough assignments, alongside Myers. Hank was fairly sheltered most of last year.

In general, Gorges has taken more of Ehrhoff's role to tallinder. And it's a clear downgrade.

Actually the most sheltered dman in terms of zone starts, filtered for 30gms or more, was…….. Hoff. http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...0-&c=0+1+3+5+63+67+57+58+59+60+61+62+64+65+66

The guy that actually had the toughest sledding in terms of zone starts, QOC and QOT was Myers not Hoff. Right behind him was Weber and McBain. The legend of Hoff seems to grow the further away we get from his departure.

If you want to argue he isn't directly replacing Tallinder based on zone starts, thats fine. But it in no ways supports your Hoff argument and in fact nothing really does.

-Gorges minutes are not closer to Hoff's. He plays 2:22 secs more than Hank (all because of a ton of PK ice time) and 2:54 less than Hoff (Because Hoff was on PP and Gorges is not). Not that the ice totals should really matter if you're understand the roles.

-Myers rarely was partnered with Hoff though they did play some together. Hoff's most common partner was Pysyk (34.4%). Rudy, Sulzer and Risto also played with him. Hoff is listed as the most frequent partner for each. Myers top two partners were Tallinder (53% of the time) and Weber (23%).

Gorges is not playing the role or minutes Hoff did. No idea why you're fighting something thats pretty obvious.

 

[Husko]

Who cares who replaces who. The fact is that this defense, right now, is worse than it was last season. My comparison:

Gorges, Benoit, and Meszaros<<<Erhoff, McCain, and Sulzer

And that's saying something.

Hopefully we'll see improvement with Pysyk coming into the lineup.

 

[ZeroPT*]

Actually the most sheltered dman in terms of zone starts, filtered for 30gms or more, was…….. Hoff. http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...0-&c=0+1+3+5+63+67+57+58+59+60+61+62+64+65+66

The guy that actually had the toughest sledding in terms of zone starts, QOC and QOT was Myers not Hoff. Right behind him was Weber and McBain. The legend of Hoff seems to grow the further away we get from his departure.

If you want to argue he isn't directly replacing Tallinder based on zone starts, thats fine. But it in no ways supports your Hoff argument and in fact nothing really does.

-Gorges minutes are not closer to Hoff's. He plays 2:22 secs more than Hank (all because of a ton of PK ice time) and 2:54 less than Hoff (Because Hoff was on PP and Gorges is not). Not that the ice totals should really matter if you're understand the roles.

-Myers rarely was partnered with Hoff though they did play some together. Hoff's most common partner was Pysyk (34.4%). Rudy, Sulzer and Risto also played with him. Hoff is listed as the most frequent partner for each. Myers top two partners were Tallinder (53% of the time) and Weber (23%).

Gorges is not playing the role or minutes Hoff did. No idea why you're fighting something thats pretty obvious.

I have different data than u.. weird.

My point stands, Gorges if you combine difficulty of opponents, zone starts,minutes,etc.. is closer to Ehrhoff than Hank. And it isn't completely dumb to think he's a Hoff replacement like you're saying.

And I agree with Husko. The overall D is a downgrade vs last year. No matter how much you break it down. The D is worst.

 

[old kummelweck]

Better days are ahead.

I agree. People really need to change the way they watch this team if they plan on following the games this season. There are a TON of kids on this team. Some of them will develop, and others will come along and replace the ones that don't.

 

[tsujimoto74]

I'm giving an explanation or context as to where I think someone's role will be thus fleshing out who they are replacing. I'm not simply posting player X >>> player Y. And no one in their right mind should think Gorges was brought in to replace Hoff's role and minutes. We lost 3 of our top 4 dmen in minutes played (Hoiff, McBain and Tallinder). The one who's minutes and role from last year that matches up most with whats going to be asked of Gorges is Tallinder.

Gorges does play a different role than Ehrhoff, but I still think he's definitely taking his minutes. Tallinder never played as many minutes last year as Gorges is now. Those minutes happen to be with Myers, which Hoff's weren't, and which inherently makes our other D pairings weaker than last year since we didn't bring in any other legit top 4 D. (Myers and Hoff on separate pairings is definitely a better team build than having 1 good pairing with 3/4 of the other defenseman being fringe NHLers.)

 

[Clock]

I agree. People really need to change the way they watch this team if they plan on following the games this season. There are a TON of kids on this team. Some of them will develop, and others will come along and replace the ones that don't.

Yup. Stay the course. I'm grateful that we're not trapped in the endless mediocrity of the post-06/07 teams. Suck for a few years for the rebuild, make the investment, and take a chance to reap some potentially serious rewards.

 

[start winnin]

When I look at the starting rosters of Calgary and us, I don't see that large a separation, Calgary has better defense but we should have better offense. Yet Calgary looks like a competent team and we look like a peewee team.