They can't actually be this bad right?

[HogtownSabresfan]

Even then we will still be ****. 2016 I still expect to be drafting in the top 5. If the team plays like this and there's no real progression this year don't expect leap and bounds playoff expectations the next. Quotes like this make me facepalm this tank. One person won't make that much of a difference regardless who it is over the course of an off season.

I actually will be surprised if Buffalo makes any kind of post season run prior to 2018.

Yeah I said it. Book it.

It's not one person. It's all the young guys hitting early 20s and maturing into better players. If some of these guys don't show promise by next year, we got problems.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Even then we will still be ****. 2016 I still expect to be drafting in the top 5. If the team plays like this and there's no real progression this year don't expect leap and bounds playoff expectations the next. Quotes like this make me facepalm this tank. One person won't make that much of a difference regardless who it is over the course of an off season.

I actually will be surprised if Buffalo makes any kind of post season run prior to 2018.

Yeah I said it. Book it.

I take that bet

 

[C Note]

I just wanted to step in and note that while you are completely right that they are NOT used in any meaningful way by most coaches in game, that doesn't mean that such statistics couldn't be used in game very soon. Implementation of SportVU cameras a la what the NBA is now rolling out synced real time with databases could tell teams whether a goalie is favoring one side of the net or the other, could help break down how teams are defending zone entry situations (among others). Similarly, implementation of biometric systems (also on the NBA board and currently in use among many teams in practices) could change the way coaches rest their players in game, optimize shift changes, and so forth.

One of the obstacles to utilizing stats in game lies in sample size fallacy. Another lies in the lack of depth of many of the stats we are aware. But these not necessarily be true for the long run.

And I think you're in agreement on this point. But just want to point out that "aren't" doesn't mean "can't" and doesn't mean "shouldn't." And "aren't in game" doesn't necessarily mean "aren't out of game," else "can't out of game," else "shouldn't out of game."

Hell of a first post.

 

[1972]

When I look at the starting rosters of Calgary and us, I don't see that large a separation, Calgary has better defense but we should have better offense. Yet Calgary looks like a competent team and we look like a peewee team.

Yep, they will get a great pick and have significant growth from players.

 

[wunderpanda]

It is still too early to judge this team. Murray and Nolan haven't been here for a year yet, new coaching staff was put together late in the summer, a few new players on the Sabres and the Amerks rosters, some injuries and a pair of junior players waiting to be sent down. Another couple weeks and things should be sorted out enough and familiarity with the new system should set in.

 

[Heraldic]

To get significantly better next season I think that many things need to happen.

1. We need to draft McEichel

2. We need to make a big trade to get a first line winger

3. We need to sign/trade/draft top-4 LHD

4. Our goaltending needs to be at least decent (what I think actually is the case this moment)

5. Grigorenko and/or Armia needs to establish themselves.

I think the last number is maybe more crucial than many seem to understand. Having watched all of the Rochester's games this season, Grigorenko could bring exactly the things that this team desperately needs. At least at the AHL level, he's really good at getting the puck in the middle and getting the puck over the blueline while possessing it. He either gets it over it himself, or he draws opponents himself creating space and distributing the puck. In our current team we have only two players able to do that and those are Myers and Ennis. And Ennis has the tendency not to distribute the puck. He either gets it over the blue line himself or loses the puck.

Grigorenko and Armia seem also play really effective, yet simple game even when the space is short. They are big bodies who can protect the puck while being able to stickhandle the puck and make plays. In our current team the big bodies we have don't have hands or vision to make any plays when in short of time or space (Stewart, Foligno, Girgensons) and the rest of the punch are not strong or big enough.

And I think those are big, big factors why this team sucks so badly puck possession wise.

Of course it's far from given that Armia or Grigorenko are able to do that in NHL, but they definitely have the skillset for that.

 

[Shoey]

Even then we will still be ****. 2016 I still expect to be drafting in the top 5. If the team plays like this and there's no real progression this year don't expect leap and bounds playoff expectations the next. Quotes like this make me facepalm this tank. One person won't make that much of a difference regardless who it is over the course of an off season.

I actually will be surprised if Buffalo makes any kind of post season run prior to 2018.

Yeah I said it. Book it.

question: do you understand that there's like 5 guys on the current roster in their long term plans? The team you see out there and the team that's eventually going to win games are in no way the same team. Guys like Connor Hurley, JT Compher, Hudson Fashing, Brendan Lemieux, Nikita Zadorov, Mikhail Grigorenko, Jake McCabe, Justin Bailey, and Nick Baptiste are the future... everything out there right now is a placeholder until more of those guys are ready. Not to mention the 3 first round picks they have upcoming in 2015... the cupboards are effectively stocked. Even if they only hit on half of these players they're likely to be in great shape.

It is still too early to judge this team. Murray and Nolan haven't been here for a year yet, new coaching staff was put together late in the summer, a few new players on the Sabres and the Amerks rosters, some injuries and a pair of junior players waiting to be sent down. Another couple weeks and things should be sorted out enough and familiarity with the new system should set in.

"the system" isn't going to make up for a lack of talent. The NHL has progressed a lot since 1995.

 

[Bps21*]

When do the games start counting I wonder.

They've lost like 25 of the last 30...and won maybe 3 in regulation. If that's the oft talked about overachieving that makes up the nolan effect...lord help us. It isn't game 5 with hodgson or ennis or moulson or stafford...it's been a while...and they all seem to be worse.

Got myers going though. Can't take that away.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Myers, Risto and Girgensons going forward. Anyone else there is the door.(Not including the rookies such as Zadarov, Reinhart ect...)

This team has a lot of 3rd line players and players without character. Gionta looks like he is here just to collect a paycheque, I miss Kelata I think he is underrated on this team.....Does anyone really care about this season? I mean until this team is suppose to win then last place is where we need to be.

 

[snowshoes1818]

Teams already do this. They have video departments that watch hours and hours of film to breakdown things like goalie tendencies, how teams defend zone entries, etc. They also watch them in game as well and update the bench or report things between periods. As the guy from BehindTheNet (Can't remember his name) pointed out. There really isn't much left that isn't already being analyzed in hockey.

There really isn't much left that isn't already analyzed in hockey that can be provided within the limits of current technology. Biometric markers and complete range of cameras (i.e. SportVU and other devices) are not currently available. If/when they become available, new, richer date will be able to be utilized in game.

But how? Thats the thing. In the NBA it makes sense because of how the game is played. The starters play the bulk of the game but can get a break from time time. So knowing how to optimize their play by monitoring something like a Biofeedback during a game would be very helpful. But NHL teams don't rest their top players like the NBA does. The top NHL players play roughly 20-25mins a night with a few outliers above that. Thats less than half the game.

NHLers play in 45-50sec shifts of high output compared to the NBA's long "shifts" of lower output throughout. The players in both leagues play at different paces and fatigue/recover in very different ways. At the end of a hockey game the better players are likely to be the more fatigued because they played more of those high output shifts. But they will still be the ones going out in key situations late.

NBA teams, soccer teams, football teams, hockey teams understand that certain players have certain optimizable thresholds in terms of playing time. Biometric markers help optimize that and tailor rest times to individual players. They also provide general rubrics in hockey, for example, as to whether a player might be better suited to one zone start or another. If biometric markers are worn during actual games, these devices can provide data in-game to assess player performance. Given that every player's threshold and load is different, it's true likewise that every player's performance every game could be different. It's not unreasonable to watch key biological statistics to assess when to give a certain player or line extended rest. It's also not unreasonable to note that these statistics could also help in the detection of certain difficult-to-diagnose injuries like concussions, thereby ensuring player safety.

All of this can be done with an eye test currently, but it can't be done with the depth or nuance that additional technology would provide. Further, some decisions cannot be made except by speculation without the data thus provided.

Most things a team needs to know (like the things your referenced) before and during a game are already known and being applied. The stats I'm talking about are Corsi, Fenwick, QOC, etc require large sample sizes to be accurately applied. Thats why they are never likely to be used in game. As in a team isn't going to break up a line because their Corsi was bad in the first period.

Cory Pronman had a good couple tweet recently on analytics.

Agreed. And I'm not arguing about the usefulness of these statistics in-game at all. They're not useful as they're not deep enough.

The type of stat I'm referring to will not be used in game. There is also no low hanging fruit left in hockey analytics. No magic stats everyone missed that will revolutionize the game.

To steal Nolan's line. Hockey is a science but its not rocket science. When you add more talent your advanced stats will improve. There really is no secret here. Where the analytics helps is to find the type of players that fit what you need. When your GM goes out and gets those players your team will be better at possession and have better advanced stats.

There is no so-called low-hanging fruit left in hockey analytics *given present technology*. Many of the publicly available statistics we are aware of are based on simple incremental counting algorithms. There is a finite amount of analysis that can be done with finite observable data.

Let's put it another way. Not very much but speculation of the structures of cells was feasible before the implementation of the microscope. With refinements in microscope technology, the invention of the electron microscope, innovation of software, etcetera, more and more data became available, allowing for more deep and more nuanced ways of evaluating said cell.

Should the NHL allow such technology as the NBA is putting into place now, much less the technology that could be available five or ten years hence, the amount of data merely available to be analyzed will expand rapidly. Things we wouldn't have even conceived of analyzing in 2014 will become modus operandi. The way in which said data could, should, might, will influence decisions is up for debate. What is clear is that if such data could give one team even the slightest advantage in either personnel decisions or in-game decisions, it must be considered.

To return to the original, original, original point:

But just want to point out that "aren't" doesn't mean "can't" and doesn't mean "shouldn't." And "aren't in game" doesn't necessarily mean "aren't out of game," else "can't out of game," else "shouldn't out of game."

 

[joshjull]

There really isn't much left that isn't already analyzed in hockey that can be provided within the limits of current technology. Biometric markers and complete range of cameras (i.e. SportVU and other devices) are not currently available. If/when they become available, new, richer date will be able to be utilized in game.



NBA teams, soccer teams, football teams, hockey teams understand that certain players have certain optimizable thresholds in terms of playing time. Biometric markers help optimize that and tailor rest times to individual players. They also provide general rubrics in hockey, for example, as to whether a player might be better suited to one zone start or another. If biometric markers are worn during actual games, these devices can provide data in-game to assess player performance. Given that every player's threshold and load is different, it's true likewise that every player's performance every game could be different. It's not unreasonable to watch key biological statistics to assess when to give a certain player or line extended rest. It's also not unreasonable to note that these statistics could also help in the detection of certain difficult-to-diagnose injuries like concussions, thereby ensuring player safety.

All of this can be done with an eye test currently, but it can't be done with the depth or nuance that additional technology would provide. Further, some decisions cannot be made except by speculation without the data thus provided.




Agreed. And I'm not arguing about the usefulness of these statistics in-game at all. They're not useful as they're not deep enough.




There is no so-called low-hanging fruit left in hockey analytics *given present technology*. Many of the publicly available statistics we are aware of are based on simple incremental counting algorithms. There is a finite amount of analysis that can be done with finite observable data.

Let's put it another way. Not very much but speculation of the structures of cells was feasible before the implementation of the microscope. With refinements in microscope technology, the invention of the electron microscope, innovation of software, etcetera, more and more data became available, allowing for more deep and more nuanced ways of evaluating said cell.

Should the NHL allow such technology as the NBA is putting into place now, much less the technology that could be available five or ten years hence, the amount of data merely available to be analyzed will expand rapidly. Things we wouldn't have even conceived of analyzing in 2014 will become modus operandi. The way in which said data could, should, might, will influence decisions is up for debate. What is clear is that if such data could give one team even the slightest advantage in either personnel decisions or in-game decisions, it must be considered.

To return to the original, original, original point:

Couple things

1) There already is technology and methods being used in the NHL to collect reams of data in the way SportsVu does for the NBA. Whats revolutionary about SportVU is its bringing the NBA into the analytics/advanced stats world. Its giving the NBA stats and data points it didn't have before. Now NBA teams have a reams of data thats specific to its sport that the NHL already has. This is the disconnect on your part. NHL teams already have this type of data and they're not using the eye test, as you put, to get it. SportsVU could potentially be a more efficient way to gather the data for the NHL. But its still going to be gathering the same data points that the NHL is already gathering.


2) Same with the Biometric markers. NHL teams already know what maximal shift lengths are. The have reams of data on it and its broken down by position and game situation. These things were not were not figured out with the eye tests but with various studies using various data points. NHL teams also don't target a rest period for players in the way the NBA does. That the NBA can use that type of monitoring does not mean it will translate to the NHL. How long a shift a player plays is already a statistically understood thing. League wide the trend has been towards shorter shifts to maximize outpoint. IIRC the average shift went down from 50secs in the 97-98 season to 46.5 ten by 09-10. How much a team wants to play a player in total minutes and per shift is a known thing going into a game. What gets players playing more or less than whats optimal is circumstances arising in the game that can't be controlled. Things like PKs, PPs or injuries.

Biometrics will not change these things in any meaningful way. What they can do though is help teams monitor players health and pick up abnormalities before they become an issues. For example they may have been able to pick up on Rich Peverly's health going south before he collapsed and needed to be revived. It could potentially help with concussion testing nd monitoring as well. Which would be a great thing. But these things will not alter a teams approach or player usage in any meaningful way.

 

[SatanwasaSlovak]

I don't see Buffalo suddenly becoming a better team by drafting a top-prospect. We simply don't have a team good enough to utilise a prospect like that.

We are going the Edmonton-route or something like that. We will have a bunch of talents but no real structure or anything that will make us dangerous.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

I don't see Buffalo suddenly becoming a better team by drafting a top-prospect. We simply don't have a team good enough to utilise a prospect like that.

We are going the Edmonton-route or something like that. We will have a bunch of talents but no real structure or anything that will make us dangerous.

This team is not even close to the Edmonton structure. Edmonton has no defence.

Myers, Ristolainen, McCabe, Zadarov and Pysyk are all solid giving us one of the best top 4 in the NHL given that Zads works out and there is no reason he shouldn't.

This team has a very good foundation of prospects. I would not worry about turning into Edmonton.

 

[DazedandConfused]

Don't get so caught up in what you see one the ice by the "Buffalo Sabres" this year. We knew, or were supposed to know that this team wasn't going to be good!! A top pick won't be the only addition/subtraction we make to the current roster this offseason!!

 

[tsujimoto74]

I don't see Buffalo suddenly becoming a better team by drafting a top-prospect. We simply don't have a team good enough to utilise a prospect like that.

We are going the Edmonton-route or something like that. We will have a bunch of talents but no real structure or anything that will make us dangerous.

To your first paragraph: maybe and maybe not. We won't just be adding a top prospect from the draft next year. We'll also have another year of growth and development from guys like Girgensons, Risto, Pysyk, Reinhart, etc. And who knows what kind of trades/signings Murray will make next summer. If we get good development out of the young players we already have and make some other smart moves, we could be a playoff bubble team next year. Or we could not. The kids will need some time to grow into good players, and Murray will have to make the right moves to turn that collection of players into a good team. It's difficult to put a number to how long those things will take. Could be 5 years, could be 2. There are a lot of factors at play.

To your second: We're nothing like Edmonton. Edmonton's talent is mostly on the wings; so far, our best prospects/young players are almost entirely defenseman and centers. They missed on almost every pick outside of the top ones for a long stretch; we've gotten many promising prospects out of 2nd round and later picks. We also had a lot more picks to use, so we've got a much bigger stockpile of assets to play around with. We're already trying to bring in character vets to help the kids out, even though there's not that much youth on the roster yet; Edmonton waited until they'd seen their #1 picks fail for a few years before thinking "Gee, maybe you need depth, and decent role players, and leadership to build a team," and they've struggled to bring those kinds opf players in. If 4-5 years from now, the only good thing about the Sabres roster is a handful of really skilled forwards and we're still picking in the top 5, then you might be able to compare us to the Oilers. As of right now, the only thing the 2 clubs have in common is that they're rebuilding.

 

[jvirk]

I think the last number is maybe more crucial than many seem to understand. Having watched all of the Rochester's games this season, Grigorenko could bring exactly the things that this team desperately needs. At least at the AHL level, he's really good at getting the puck in the middle and getting the puck over the blueline while possessing it. He either gets it over it himself, or he draws opponents himself creating space and distributing the puck. In our current team we have only two players able to do that and those are Myers and Ennis. And Ennis has the tendency not to distribute the puck. He either gets it over the blue line himself or loses the puck.

Grigorenko and Armia seem also play really effective, yet simple game even when the space is short. They are big bodies who can protect the puck while being able to stickhandle the puck and make plays. In our current team the big bodies we have don't have hands or vision to make any plays when in short of time or space (Stewart, Foligno, Girgensons) and the rest of the punch are not strong or big enough.

And I think those are big, big factors why this team sucks so badly puck possession wise.

Of course it's far from given that Armia or Grigorenko are able to do that in NHL, but they definitely have the skillset for that.

I agree with you...I've loved watching Grigs and Armia develop (more so Grigs). And I've made it quite clear how much of a man crush I've developed for Grigs especially.

He's gonna surprise all of us on this forum and all the Buffalo fans around the world. He's well on his way to developing into a top 2 C for this team. SOOOO much skill, ALOTT of hockey IQ, and now you add in his work ethic and body frame...If you're not excited about this guy yet, then start to get excited because he's going to tear s**t up.

Armia I do have high hopes for as well. I love what he's starting to do with his game more and more. I think he plays a bit more of a cerebral game rather than a physical game along the boards..BUT he's really started to learn to battle in the corners and come out with the puck. His shot is ridiculous.

We as fans (impatient fans...yes I use to be one of them) like to give up on players very quickly. If their development was off on a tangent or if they're european/russian and are termed "soft", we learn to give up on them. Instead of doing that, just a suggestion from my side of things, try to see the progression these types of players have made. You gotta understand the type of hockey that's played in Europe compared to the NHL is very different. It's not as physical, and it's more skill related in europe where Armia played. He had a injury plagued first season in Roch, followed by some inconsistencies with development b/c he had to adjust his game. Now in his 2nd season when he's healthy and has a year under his belt, you gotta look at what the kid is doing to get better and refine his game. Both of these guys have really started to impress me with what they're trying to do with their games. Big skilled wingers and centers don't come by too often that are as skilled as these 2 guys. 6'3" 220 lb Center that could be as great as he wants, plus a 6'3" 200 lb winger who's really starting to turn into the offensive force that he can be...that right there should lead you all to be extremely excited about their potential.

Armia's defensive game I didn't like at first. I still am a bit skeptical, but I remember in the traverse city tournament and also a couple AHL games this season I Saw the way he got the puck back. He's such a smart player, and it's really under rated. I like his progression. A full season this year in the AHL, I hope he continues to progress upward.
Imagine a line of the following:
Girgensons-Grigorenko-Armia

You have sandpaper, skill, size (physically they're huge guys), sniping ability, offensive AND defensive prowess...that's drool worthy.

 

[I Like Eich]

I don't see Buffalo suddenly becoming a better team by drafting a top-prospect. We simply don't have a team good enough to utilise a prospect like that.

We are going the Edmonton-route or something like that. We will have a bunch of talents but no real structure or anything that will make us dangerous.

Of course we wont be top of the League next year, even after McEichel. These things take time. Penguins didnt make the Playoffs in Crosby's first year (Even with his 102 points) but we've got some insanely good pieces in development. 2016/2017 that's when we should really see some new talent and competitiveness

Couldn't disagree more with the Edmonton comparison. Guys like Girgensons Ristolainen Pysyk Edmonton is in desperate need of players like that. They are all scoring, no defense. We have a much different build going