Therrien - The Offseason Edition

[sharks9]

Can you provide links to these predictions calling for Ottawa to win?

Bleacher Report had Ottawa at 25-1 for winning the Cup and Montreal a 16-1.

Hockey-Reference had Montreal at a 6% chance to win the Cup and Ottawa at only 3.8%

The Washington Post, while calling Ottawa the best bet for an upset, also only gave them a 45.5% chance of winning the series, obviously meaning the Habs were still the favorite.

Puck Daddy had Montreal at 10 to 1 to win the Cup and Ottawa at 18 to 1.

So yeah, not really sure where you got the impression that we were the acknowledged underdogs from.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1875071&highlight=predictions

More analysts picked the Sens to win the series

 

[Winter Eclipse]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1875071&highlight=predictions

More analysts picked the Sens to win the series

Thanks for this!

Sooo TSN Picked: Montreal, New York Rangers, Washington, Tampa Bay, Chicago, St.Louis and Calgary

Ray Ferraro picked St.Louis, Chicago, Anaheim, Vancouver, Montreal, Tampa Bay, New York Rangers and Washington.

Montreal Gazette - Habs in 7 - http://montrealgazette.com/sports/h...ffs-are-decided-on-the-ice-not-by-predictions

Vegas odds are -160 Montreal (in favour of Montreal)

Person | Prediction | Games
Pierre LeBrun, ESPN|Senators|7
John Buccigross, ESPN|Canadiens|7
Scott Burnside, ESPN|Canadiens|6
The Hockey News|Senators|6
James Mirtle, Globe and Mail|Canadiens|7
Scott Cullen , TSN|Canadiens|7
Bleacher Report|Senators|6
Kevin Allen, USA Today|Senators|6
Dave Campbell, AP|Senators|7
Todd Cordell, Hockeybuzz|Senators|6
Anthony Riccobono, IB Times|Canadiens|7
Adam Gretz, CBS Sports|Canadiens|7
Chris Peters, CBS Sports|Canadiens|6
Stephen Burtch, Sportsnet|Senators|6
Barry Melrose, ESPN|Senators|7
Fox Sports|Senators|6
Sports Illustrated|Senators|6
David Pagnotta, The Fourth Period|Canadiens|6

Montreal: 11 (or 10 if you count Ferraro and TSN as the same)

OTT vs. MTL (thanks to Cat Herder on the Sens board):
Bleacher Report - Sens in 6 - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ions-for-the-2015-stanley-cup-playoffs/page/4

Ottawa Citizen - Sens in 6 - http://ottawacitizen.com/sports/hockey/nhl/senators-extra/round-one-matching-up-ottawa-and-montreal

Kevin Allen of USA Today - Sens in 6 - http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...wa-senators-playoff-preview-capsule/25690875/

vs.

Person | Prediction | Games
Pierre LeBrun, ESPN|Senators|7
John Buccigross, ESPN|Canadiens|7
Scott Burnside, ESPN|Canadiens|6
The Hockey News|Senators|6
James Mirtle, Globe and Mail|Canadiens|7
Scott Cullen, TSN|Canadiens|7
Bleacher Report |Senators|6
Kevin Allen , USA Today|Senators|6
Dave Campbell, AP|Senators|7
Todd Cordell, Hockeybuzz|Senators|6
Anthony Riccobono, IB Times|Canadiens|7
Adam Gretz, CBS Sports|Canadiens|7
Chris Peters, CBS Sports|Canadiens|6
Stephen Burtch, Sportsnet|Senators|6
Barry Melrose, ESPN|Senators|7
Fox Sports|Senators|6
Sports Illustrated|Senators|6
David Pagnotta, The Fourth Period|Canadiens|6

Ottawa: 11

Looks essentially tied to me (I highlighted the repeats)

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

You're denying reality. Go back and check for yourself. The majority of hockey fans along with the majority of 'experts' picked Ottawa to win, and about half our own fan base felt the same. Check the boards for yourself, then check Ottawa's record in the final two months. There was nothing remotely middling about how they were playing.

And 3 straight losses to them by a combined score of 13-5 to end the season series suggests we had no reason to be overly confident against them, too.

 

[Kriss E]

I get where you're coming from, but that isn't what happened. You think it's a system change that allowed better possession stats. It's not, it's the players upping their game while following the same existing system.

Well I think that's quite ridiculous to believe but let's pretend that it is. You're saying the players are slacking down all year and not playing as their coach wants them to do it. And when the games matter more, then they finally listen to perform as their coach has wanted to all along.
That's actually even worse because it shows that the coach is failing to get them to execute what he wants the majority of the time.

You're not really helping yourself here.

 

[PTK]

Well I think that's quite ridiculous to believe but let's pretend that it is. You're saying the players are slacking down all year and not playing as their coach wants them to do it. And when the games matter more, then they finally listen to perform as their coach has wanted to all along.
That's actually even worse because it shows that the coach is failing to get them to execute what he wants the majority of the time.

You're not really helping yourself here.

I've described accurately what is going on. No team brings it every night. Having smaller players in the lineup makes it even tougher.

What's really ridiculous, is thinking that there is some fundamental system change that happens at the flip of a switch. Thats just stupid.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

Most coaches play favorites. But Therrien is on a completely different level in that regard.

At this point, it's pretty obvious that it's detrimental to the team. Last year it was Bouillon, this year it was Desharnais, especially in the playoffs and on the PP.

It's really holding the team back.

I've said it elsewhere many times. If one were to plot 30 coaches on an axis that quantifies the meritocratic vs favoritist feature, MT falls right on the latter pole, well beyond every other coach. Moreover it's not enough that his favor of his pet players is an anchor to the team, he compounds this with systematic disdain of others, Eller most of all, but skillful Euros competing with DD in general.

 

[groovejuice]

I've said it elsewhere many times. If one were to plot 30 coaches on an axis that quantifies the meritocratic vs favoritist feature, MT falls right on the latter pole, well beyond every other coach. Moreover it's not enough that his favor of his pet players is an anchor to the team, he compounds this with systematic disdain of others, Eller most of all, but skillful Euros competing with DD in general.

Great post. If nothing else, the aura of unprofessional conduct it provokes is mind boggling.

 

[Capitaine Subban*]

I've said it elsewhere many times. If one were to plot 30 coaches on an axis that quantifies the meritocratic vs favoritist feature, MT falls right on the latter pole, well beyond every other coach. Moreover it's not enough that his favor of his pet players is an anchor to the team, he compounds this with systematic disdain of others, Eller most of all, but skillful Euros competing with DD in general.

Yep MT hates plekanec

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

Yep MT hates plekanec

Plex is not competing with DD. He is an established center, whereas DD needs favorable treatment to be a center -edit: to play- on an NHL team. I'm talking about other high-skill players on the cusp of success, competing with DD whose situation is precarious if not for favorable treatment: Galchenyuk, also vying for a center position while not yet established there (given that DD also cannot replace Eller as 3C or play as 4C) - back to wing he goes based on a contrived justification; Andrighetto, also a high-skill player, also small in stature (though not quite as MiniMe-like as DD), in a situation where the team will only tolerate 2 or 3 small players: a direct threat to DD if successful - any excuse to put him on the fourth line, then back to the AHL when he fails to produce on the fourth. I guess I need to spell it out for some.

Humor me, and find me another amongst the other 29 NHL coaches more favoritist than him. I wish you luck. The others that I know of, Mike Keenan comes to mind, are no longer in the NHL. The game needs a new breed of coach who emphasizes strategy and a meritocratic approach.

 

[Capitaine Subban*]

Plex is not competing with DD. He is an established center, whereas DD needs favorable treatment to be a center on an NHL team. I'm talking about other high-skill players on the cusp of success, competing with DD whose situation is precarious if not for favorable treatment: Galchenyuk, also vying for a center position while not yet established there - back to wing he goes based on a contrived justification; Andrighetto, also a high-skill player, also small in stature (though not quite as MiniMe-like as DD), in a situation where the team will only tolerate 2 or 3 small players: a direct threat to DD - any excuse to put him on the fourth line, then back to the AHL when he fails to produce on the fourth. I guess I need to spell it out for some.

Who is that skill euro you were talking about then ? Only Plek was really kinda fighting to play next to Max. The club decided that Galchenyuk was more valuable now as a winger to balance the power of the first two line so you must be talking about Eller ?
Like it or not they prefer DD as offensive center more than Eller. There is no conspiracy only a decision some dont like.

I just saw your edit. I would say that every coaches play favorite through the eye of some fans but for each coaches it is more a matter of trust and gut feeling that they employ some player more than they should for some fans.No coaches would take the chances of getting fired to please any player. It is kinda ridiculous to be honest.

 

[ECWHSWI]

I've described accurately what is going on. No team brings it every night. Having smaller players in the lineup makes it even tougher.

What's really ridiculous, is thinking that there is some fundamental system change that happens at the flip of a switch. Thats just stupid.

you think way too highly of yourself. Doubt you would notice any change in system.

 

[Kriss E]

I've described accurately what is going on. No team brings it every night. Having smaller players in the lineup makes it even tougher.

What's really ridiculous, is thinking that there is some fundamental system change that happens at the flip of a switch. Thats just stupid.

You said when we open up, we struggled. I said it was the opposite, and unlike you there's actually data/stats to back up my belief. You're just spewing things out.
We opened up, our possession numbers rose, we outshot and outchanced the opposition. That's what happened the majority of the time.

Then you said the players just upped their game by playing the same, but you're the one that mentioned a different style by claiming that ''when they open up'' (ie. change their game), they struggle. So which is it? Are we playing the same way or we opening up?

You were wrong. You are still wrong. Facts don't back up your flawed eye test. And now you're contradicting yourself by changing narratives.

 

[PTK]

You said when we open up, we struggled. I said it was the opposite, and unlike you there's actually data/stats to back up my belief. You're just spewing things out.
We opened up, our possession numbers rose, we outshot and outchanced the opposition. That's what happened the majority of the time.

Then you said the players just upped their game by playing the same, but you're the one that mentioned a different style by claiming that ''when they open up'' (ie. change their game), they struggle. So which is it? Are we playing the same way or we opening up?

You were wrong. You are still wrong. Facts don't back up your flawed eye test. And now you're contradicting yourself by changing narratives.

You're confused. And wrong. It's all in the execution, when the players play the "MT" way we have success. When they don't, we suck. What a lot of you want, is actually how they play when they're at their worst.
Simply have to do the dirty work to have any real level of success. No pressure, no fight, far too easy to play against. Teams do not just hand out opportunities when it's easy.
Most games are won and lost along the wall. It's the way the game is played now. Seriously, watch. It's a basic part of hockey. Just have to do it.

 

[ECWHSWI]

You're confused. And wrong. It's all in the execution, when the players play the "MT" way we have success. When they don't, we suck. What a lot of you want, is actually how they play when they're at their worst.
Simply have to do the dirty work to have any real level of success. No pressure, no fight, far too easy to play against. Teams do not just hand out opportunities when it's easy.
Most games are won and lost along the wall. It's the way the game is played now. Seriously, watch. It's a basic part of hockey. Just have to do it.

MT way made us the worst offensive teams of all 16 PO teams this season. It also made us bottom 3rd in ANY stat related to offense.

and here you are, Mr Right, trying to convince everyone playing a different style and using different strategies would bring us worst results.

despite the FACT we made it further last season even though we gave up MORE goals.

 

[Habsawce]

Ottawa would have eliminated Montreal in the 1st round if not for Hammond being atrocious.

 

[BLONG7]

You're confused. And wrong. It's all in the execution, when the players play the "MT" way we have success. When they don't, we suck. What a lot of you want, is actually how they play when they're at their worst.
Simply have to do the dirty work to have any real level of success. No pressure, no fight, far too easy to play against. Teams do not just hand out opportunities when it's easy.
Most games are won and lost along the wall. It's the way the game is played now. Seriously, watch. It's a basic part of hockey. Just have to do it.

The MT way has not really led to success, but the Carey Price way has led to success...

 

[Lshap]

Ottawa would have eliminated Montreal in the 1st round if not for Hammond being atrocious.

Ottawa would've been swept in four if not for Anderson being spectacular.

 

[Kriss E]

You're confused. And wrong. It's all in the execution, when the players play the "MT" way we have success. When they don't, we suck. What a lot of you want, is actually how they play when they're at their worst.
Simply have to do the dirty work to have any real level of success. No pressure, no fight, far too easy to play against. Teams do not just hand out opportunities when it's easy.
Most games are won and lost along the wall. It's the way the game is played now. Seriously, watch. It's a basic part of hockey. Just have to do it.

What in God's name are you talking about??
The ''MT way'' has made us be outpossessed, outchanced and outshot on a regular basis. Thankfully, our talent prevailed and got us through.
Now you're saying if we changed and opened up, we would get outpossesssed, outchanced and outshot more. Except we have STATISTICAL PROOF that when we did ''open up'' more, the exact opposite of what you think happened (playing worse) actually came true (played better).
So you are completely out to lunch here buddy, it's not even close.

 

[PTK]

What in God's name are you talking about??
The ''MT way'' has made us be outpossessed, outchanced and outshot on a regular basis. Thankfully, our talent prevailed and got us through.
Now you're saying if we changed and opened up, we would get outpossesssed, outchanced and outshot more. Except we have STATISTICAL PROOF that when we did ''open up'' more, the exact opposite of what you think happened (playing worse) actually came true (played better).
So you are completely out to lunch here buddy, it's not even close.

MT's "way" is pretty much the same as any other coach. You simply have to do certain things to have success.
I'm not the one who is out to lunch.

 

[groovejuice]

MT's "way" is pretty much the same as any other coach. You simply have to do certain things to have success.
I'm not the one who is out to lunch.

Ice the puck. Dump the puck. Always.

I'm not sure that's how the Hawks win cups.

 

[PTK]

Ice the puck. Dump the puck. Always.

I'm not sure that's how the Hawks win cups.

I like it when guys bring up the Hawks. MB had a good view of them. He knows what works.

Must be strange to some that he backs MT and supports his coaching.

 

[RealityBytes]

Ottawa would've been swept in four if not for Anderson being spectacular.

If Ottawa had won just one of the overtimes games, Montreal would have been down 3-2 games going into the 6th and hoping for a 7th game. However, this and none of any of "Montreal would have won in four" or "Ottawa would have won in seven" means anything since it didn't happen. We can't rewrite history or guess at changes in history because of one factor since anything could have happened.

All we can say for sure is it was a close series, neither team dominated, and Montreal won in six.

 

[cphabs]

MT was summarily dismissed, as head coach, from the most talented hockey team on earth, which also happened to be managed/owned by Mario Lemieux... Midseason. His replacement won the ****ING Stanley Cup a few months months later!

Our top prospects are ****ING doomed. You can see it happening. I added Lefebvre to equation last night and I fainted!

 

[Justin11]

Any sightings of him? completely disappeared after his last postgame 40 sec presser.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

MT was summarily dismissed, as head coach, from the most talented hockey team on earth, which also happened to be managed/owned by Mario Lemieux... Midseason. His replacement won the ****ING Stanley Cup a few months months later!

Our top prospects are ****ING doomed. You can see it happening. I added Lefebvre to equation last night and I fainted!

You seem well connected, from a spiritual standpoint. Can't you get St-Peter or the appropriate patron saint of hockey fans to intervene? A non-fatal but career-ending heart attack would do. Or an otherwise intractable ulcer that precludes hockey-related stress...