Even though the "home crowd" won't be a factor, having the last change is important. There are a few guys that you don't wanna see against your slow line (Barzal), and making sure you can counter that pugilistically-inclined Clusterbuck Martin Cizikas line will allow the Caps to dictate the series, and not the other way around. IMO the Isles are a two-line team, and if you get the lead it's gonna be easier to score again than it will be if the game were tied or the Caps are behind.
Carlson is key to the PP and stabilizing the defense, but if he's not ready I wouldn't rush him back for game 1. If you lose, re-evaluate, but this team should be strong enough to win without one player (assuming the usual suspects show up).
Caps 4-2 with an ENG.