Blue Jays Discussion: The "So, How About Them Blue Jays?" Edition. [1.5 Games ahead of Yankees]

[Longshot]

you're looking at defense too much. FIP and xFIP suggest a hard line drive double down the line given up by Hutch is the same as a weak ground ball back to the pitcher given up by Buehrle.

That's not defense, that's just placement of where the ball went. And over time this suggest that this will even out, and over time 2 pitchers will give up the same percentage of hits of balls they put in play.

Now Buehrle has also been able to outperform his FIP and xFIP over his career, by .31 and .4. If you drop his FIP and xFIP that amount his FIP is basically equal to Hutch's this year and xFIP has been better.

Estrada I think is being extremely lucky this year. His HR rate this year is much much much less than previously. I don't want to go near him in the offseason. Whoever signs him will regret it very quickly.

But in theory Hutch has been unlucky, if the same percentage of balls he has put in play went for outs as the other guys his ERA would be the best on the staff(ignoring Price, considering Buehle's abilities to outperform him FIP/xFIP, say he'd be tied with Hutch). Its kind of hard to believe someone can be that unlucky and one would suggest it's because he's leaving meatballs in the zone but his hard contact% is right around Buehrles, though his line drive % is more. Hutch's soft contact % is much better than Buehrle or Dickey.

In conclusion Hutch has been really unlucky, his batted ball profile might be a little to blame, but it's more luck than meatballs down the middle imo.

So, in other words, some pitchers can out perform these measurements like Buehrle has throughout his career. Meaning: Buerhrle is better than Hutch and Estrada.

And this year, in particular, Hutch has been extremely unlucky and Estrada has been very lucky.

At what point does the luck factor leave the equation? Is there any way to measure that?

At some point, don't you have to look at it and say: "Estrada has been better than Hutch this year." Meaning, in those big moments Estrada got the double-play grounder, and Hutch gave up the double that made things worse.

When I look at the various stats I see this: ERA is a measurement of what happened, but it can be misleading because sometimes what happened isn't what should have happened. FIP is a measurement of what could have been expected to happen, which - again - can be misleading because what could have happened isn't always what happens.

I guess my central question is this: why has Buehrle out performed what his expected results are and Hutch hasn't?

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Hmm Stephen Brunt saying on Sportsnet Central that the 5-year policy is probably gonna be wiped out.

Going further than 5 years is generally more bad than good but its dumb for a team to restrict itself with an arbitrary policy for no reason.

 

[91Kadri91*]

My April/May comments were about Dickey, not EE.

And, I'm confused by your overall message. Are you saying Dickey sucks, no matter what. Or are you just saying that Dickey has been worse than Hutch this year - regardless of his recent performance?

Sometimes I see your posts and think you are making absolute statements that don't ring true. As in: "Dickey sucks, 100%, I don't care about how he has pitched recently."

When what you might actually be saying is: "When you compare the two, Hutch has been better than Dickey."

I would guess most fans would see Dickey's season about the same as me: In April and May: "What happened?" And since: "Much better."

Dickey hasn't been good this year; I genuinely don't see how anyone can deny such a claim. He's been a back-of-the-rotation starter for three years now, actually, and he's regressing (look at his K rate). That's not to say he's useless, and he has been better over the last three months, but I'm not convinced it's sustainable over a large sample.

I do care how he has pitched recently; he has pitched well (but has still pitched poorly over the entire course of the season). What I don't believe, however, is that he will continue to pitch well over the long-term (this becomes particularly important when trying to decide whether to pick up Dickey's option/whether to start Dickey in the playoffs). If we're trying to determine who's a better pitcher in the playoffs (Dickey or Hutchison), then I'm going to go with the better pitcher (Hutchison). Granted, if Dickey is pitching extraordinarily well leading in to the playoffs, then I'd give Dickey a start; it's entirely plausible that a pitcher can maintain a short-sample of success (one that significantly outperforms their predictive statistics, like Dickey is currently doing).

 

[lebdafor norris]

Buehrle's gold glove defence in the mound and his ability to completely shut down the running game is the reason why his been outperforming his FIP and xFIP throughout his career.

 

[sparxx87]

In the short-term yes, but, much like HR/FB rate, hard-hit rate will regress to the mean (for pitchers).



http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/buy-or-sell-on-hard-hit/



http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-hard-hit-rate-means-for-batters/

You sell your opinion as scientific fact, neglecting to mention, or just not understanding that there's several other variables. If a pitcher, for example, has an 'aha' moment (like say, Pete Walker helping Dickey fix a subtle change he unknowingly made in his delivery) and starts pitching better... Are you also saying he's going to then forget and go back? What about Josh Donaldson - he was a late bloomer. Is he bound to revert back to his mean as a professional?

Your law of averages doesn't account for the fact that these people are humans and sometimes get better or worse based solely on themselves. With no variables you'd have an argument, but that isn't the case.

Advanced stats aren't as effective as watching everyday.

 

[theaub]

Buehrle's gold glove defence in the mound and his ability to completely shut down the running game is why his been outperforming his FIP and xFIP throughout his career.

Dickey has similar traits

Good stuff on the hard hit %, always just assumed it was predicative for pitchers like it is for hitters but I guess not.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Buehrle's gold glove defence in the mound and his ability to completely shut down the running game is why his been outperforming his FIP and xFIP throughout his career.

False.

That was a true/false question, right?

 

[p.l.f.]

Revere leads off again

 

[lebdafor norris]

False.

That was a true/false question, right?

Care to explain why?

 

[canucksfan]

Harper is trying to milk votes.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Care to explain why?

The occurrences in which pitcher defence, and even more so successful pickoff attempts, are executed are too infrequent to materially affect a given pitcher's ERA or FIP.

Low k's, high contact, low babip, high lob%: these are things that materially affect the relationship between FIP and ERA, causing the FIP to be higher.

 

[Canada4Gold]

So, in other words, some pitchers can out perform these measurements like Buehrle has throughout his career. Meaning: Buerhrle is better than Hutch and Estrada.

No not really. Someone who is proven to be able to outperform a 4.5 FIP by a half a run to a 4 "FIP level" pitcher isn't better than someone who has a 3.5 FIP. The 3.5 guy is better.

It's just some pitchers like Dickey and Buehrle have proven over their careers, their ERA is better than their FIP by a certain amount. So you can't always look directly at the FIP and say the 3.5 guy is a full run better than the 4.5 guy.

And this year, in particular, Hutch has been extremely unlucky and Estrada has been very lucky.

Estrada has been pretty lucky, his xFIP is awful, Dickey level bad. Over a run and a half worse than his ERA, and while his FIP isn't nearly that bad, his HR/FB has been well below his career norms, he's been very homer prone in his career, and hasn't been this year which I suspect isn't going to continue

I suspect with Shaipro here now they won't go near Estrada with a 10 foot pole

At what point does the luck factor leave the equation? Is there any way to measure that?

FIP and xFIP tries to measure a pitcher ignoring luck, and defence. It's not perfect, and like the case with Buehrle and Dickey it's possible to be able to sustain a ERA better than your FIP and xFIP, but it's the best way to measure a pitcher where luck doesn't come into play

At some point, don't you have to look at it and say: "Estrada has been better than Hutch this year." Meaning, in those big moments Estrada got the double-play grounder, and Hutch gave up the double that made things worse.

Clutch tends not to exist. Given enough of these opportunities Estrada isn't going to get that double play more often than Hutch unless he's a ground ball pitcher which he's not. If both Estrada and Hutch have the ball put in play, it's considered luck that Estrada got the double play and Hutch gave up a double. Given enough time they'll both given up the double and get the double play as often as each other(granted if one is a groundball pitcher he might get the double play more often)

When I look at the various stats I see this: ERA is a measurement of what happened, but it can be misleading because sometimes what happened isn't what should have happened. FIP is a measurement of what could have been expected to happen, which - again - can be misleading because what could have happened isn't always what happens.

I guess my central question is this: why has Buehrle out performed what his expected results are and Hutch hasn't?

in 1 situation, in 1 game, who knows what's going to happen, it's an extremely small sample size, you can't really guess what you expect to happen in that 1 spot, but over 5 years you should be able to look at a pitchers FIP or xFIP and say his ERA should be pretty close to that.

Over a year that's not the case, the only thing you can really call, it is luck. Over all the situations Hutch has faced this year, if we give him average ball placement off the bat, he wouldn't give up as many runs. It's weird to explain, but yeah he's given up more runs that one would expect him to.

The best I can say is Buehrle has outperformed because he's been a little lucky(not a lot, his numbers are only ~0.7 worse than his ERA and we've already said he has shown he's about to outperform by ~0.4 over his career), and Hutch has been horribly unlucky.

I wouldn't use it as a be all end all, and Hutch has a slightly higher line drive % this year which could explain a little of it(because line drives are more likely to go for hits), but he's been a full run worse than his FIP, and unlike Buehrle we don't have enough career data to say he's usually worse than his FIP.

 

[Leafsdude7]

So which game is being broadcast nationally in the US this week?

 

[91Kadri91*]

You sell your opinion as scientific fact, neglecting to mention, or just not understanding that there's several other variables. If a pitcher, for example, has an 'aha' moment (like say, Pete Walker helping Dickey fix a subtle change he unknowingly made in his delivery) and starts pitching better... Are you also saying he's going to then forget and go back? What about Josh Donaldson - he was a late bloomer. Is he bound to revert back to his mean as a professional?

Your law of averages doesn't account for the fact that these people are humans and sometimes get better or worse based solely on themselves. With no variables you'd have an argument, but that isn't the case.

Dickey is almost 41 years old, and has pitched like a #5 for three seasons now. We're not talking about a sub-30 player (like Donaldson, Bautista or Encarnacion) who suddenly change their approach and become great players. Hard-hit rates do regress to the mean, just like HR/FB rates (for pitchers). That's not an opinion, and those are not 'my' findings. I'm not selling my opinion as facts, I'm selling facts as facts. You're fallaciously assuming that exceptions prove your rule, when there are, in fact, exceptions to every rule.

Advanced stats aren't as effective as watching everyday.

They're significantly more effective, actually, assuming the 'watching' is being done by untrained eyes. Unless, of course, you wish to ignore cognitive bias, which I imagine you will conveniently do.

I've watched the Blue Jays for years- long before the majority of you came jumpin' on the bandwagon- and I've only used advanced statistics (in baseball) recently. I'll take the inherently unbiased nature of statistics over the opinion of a HFBoard poster. That probably means I'll miss a Josh Donaldson every once in awhile, but so will those who don't use advanced statistics, and unlike those who oppose advanced stats, I'll unearth a Scherzer, Kluber, and/or Keuchel, while being wary of the 'improvements' made by players like Romero and Morrow.

 

[trellaine201]

Bad decision ugh get an out

 

[Eyedea]

Hopefully Shapiro makes something of the ST facility. Beeston and the board have taken way too long on deciding the future of their facilities.

 

[lebdafor norris]

The occurrences in which pitcher defence, and even more so successful pickoff attempts, are executed are too infrequent to materially affect a given pitcher's ERA or FIP.

Low k's, high contact, low babip, high lob%: these are things that materially affect the relationship between FIP and ERA, causing the FIP to be higher.

Except I'm talking about his overall ability to hold runners on base not just pickoff attempts. Here's a quote directly from fangraphs "pitchers with the ability to limit the running game or generate fly balls at the expense of line drives or ground balls are more likely to beat their FIP than the average player." Here's another article explaining the variables that explains the dif between FIP and ERA.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-biggest-era-fip-differences-of-2014/

There's definitely more variables (some of which are correlated with the ones you listed) that affects the difference between FIP and ERA than just the ones you listed.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Except I'm talking about his overall ability to hold runners on base not just pickoff attempts. Here's a quote directly from fangraphs "pitchers with the ability to limit the running game or generate fly balls at the expense of line drives or ground balls are more likely to beat their FIP than the average player." Here's another article explaining the variables that explains the dif between FIP and ERA.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-biggest-era-fip-differences-of-2014/

There's definitely more variables (some of which are correlated with the ones you listed) that affects the difference between FIP and ERA than just the ones you listed.

I stand by my original comment, and will reiterate that the things I listed far outweigh the ability to limit the running game in causing Mark Buehrle to consistently outperform his FIP.

 

[sparxx87]

Dickey is almost 41 years old, and has pitched like a #5 for three seasons now. We're not talking about a sub-30 player (like Donaldson, Bautista or Encarnacion) who suddenly change their approach and become great players. Hard-hit rates do regress to the mean, just like HR/FB rates (for pitchers). That's not an opinion, and those are not 'my' findings. I'm not selling my opinion as facts, I'm selling facts as facts. You're fallaciously assuming that exceptions prove your rule, when there are, in fact, exceptions to every rule.



They're significantly more effective, actually, assuming the 'watching' is being done by untrained eyes. Unless, of course, you wish to ignore cognitive bias, which I imagine you will conveniently do.

I've watched the Blue Jays for years- long before the majority of you came jumpin' on the bandwagon- and I've only used advanced statistics (in baseball) recently. I'll take the inherently unbiased nature of statistics over the opinion of a HFBoard poster. That probably means I'll miss a Josh Donaldson every once in awhile, but so will those who don't use advanced statistics, and unlike those who oppose advanced stats, I'll unearth a Scherzer, Kluber, and/or Keuchel, while being wary of the 'improvements' made by players like Romero and Morrow.

Dickey was a late bloomer. He finally got it with the Mets. He wasn't very good as a Blue Jay until Pete Walker noticed this subtle change he'd unknowingly made to his delivery when comparing video to his Cy Young season. After making the change he's been near a 3 ERA. You can throw away all those stats because they're irrelevant when trying to measure a pitcher before and after he changed how he throws the ball. That said, the age is certainly a factor. I don't expect him to sustain this for years simply because of his age... But right now, Dickey is pitching very well and you shouldn't expect much regression over the next 60-80 days. We're talking about whose going to pitch in this years playoffs and not beyond.

Oh yes, the "I watched before all you band wagon fans" ... Well, to that I'd suggest you haven't fully understood what you're watching. Maybe age is getting to you, too? These stats aren't a science. You selling them as fact when there's no denying the human element is just wrong... They may paint a rough picture for someone whose never seen it before, but saying they're more accurate then a knowledgable baseball fan watching everyday is just silly.

 

[lebdafor norris]

I stand by my original comment, and will reiterate that the things I listed far outweigh the ability to limit the running game in causing Mark Buehrle to consistently outperform his FIP.

Fair enough

 

[The Nemesis]

In light of the Mariners firing their GM, I found this old piece from 2013 about what a gong show the M's front office was to that point:

http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/...int-to-trouble-in-marinersrsquo-front-office/

It both shows why he wasn't fired sooner and why things were such a mess there.

 

[trellaine201]

Pronunciation of our new boss is going to drive me nuts.

Thought it was ShapEEro, not shapIIIro

 

[The Nemesis]

I've always heard it pronounced as sha-PIE-row

 

[TorMapleJays]

What scares me about Dickie is he traditionally pitches well in the middle to late summer
Because he
Is warmed up ( humidity also has a factor in how much his ball moves) so
Come late October when that air is
Brisk and thin... Will his numbers turn out like April and May again..

Iifc he has never pitched in the post season?

Either way, it's

 

[TorMapleJays]

What scares me about Dickie is he traditionally pitches well in the middle to late summer
Because he
Is warmed up ( humidity also has a factor in how much his ball moves) so
Come late October when that air is
Brisk and thin... Will his numbers turn out like April and May again..

Iifc he has never pitched in the post season?

Either way, it's a good problem to have