From 2002-2012
1 - Yakupov, RNH, Hall, Tavares, Stamkos, Kane, E. Johnson, Crosby, Ovechkin, Fleury, Nash
2 - R. Murray, Landeskog, Seguin, Hedman, Doughty, JVR, J. Staal, Ryan, Malkin, Staal, Lehtonen
3 - Galchenyuk, Huberdeau, Gudbranson, Duchene, Bogosian, Turris, Toews, J. Johnson, Barker, Horton, Bouwmeester
Under the assumption that Gudbranson is a complete bust, which isn't fair at all to say just yet, you're looking at only 2 true busts there in Barker/Gudbranson and both of them had a top-6/top-4 player drafted right after them in Ladd and Johansen, respectively. That's a 92% success rate of making the NHL and being a top-6/top-4 player of the 30 guys drafted in the top-3 from 2002 to 2012 (I chose not to include after 2012 because those players are too young to say)
Drafting in the top-3 absolutely does guarantee you something when only 2 out of 30 players in the top-3 are busts and the rest are top-6/top-4/#1G.