The Roberto Luongo Thread

[Reign Nateo]

I can't believe how much value people place on a goalie's ability to handle the puck in terms of generating offense. I mean, how many goals over a season do you think a good puck handler will generate over a mediocre one?

And even if they do have a big effect on a team's ability to maintain possession, why are the Devils generating no more shots with Brodeur in net than they are with Schneider? The only difference between the offense for the two goalies is that the Devils have been shooting at 10.5% with Brodeur and 7% with Schneider. Anyone arguing that Brodeur is the source of the increased offense is going to have to square their argument with that fact.

It's not something you can equate with fact. But being discussed in detail on the Devils board if you want to read through that. Also clear if you watch Broduer, as we know what Schneider is like with the puck. The idea is that Broduer gets the puck up in transistion a lot quicker and smoother, therefore more opportunites come off the rush and with the defence still getting back or changing. That would explain the higher shooting percentage with Broduer in net as those type of chances have a higher opportunity of going in the net.

 

[Dezmoto]

"Prove himself" to whom?

Lou Lam? One of the most respected minds in hockey history gave a 9th overall draft pick for him with Broduer on board. I think Lou was sold.

The Canucks organization? They made Schneider their man, signed him to a solid contract and tried thier damnest to trade Luongo. Pretty sure they were sold too.

Maybe he had to put up some stats? Nah, they've been elite at every level.

The only people that Cory Schneider has to prove himself to are a handful of fans that for their own reasons, can't come to terms with the fact that he is one of the top goalies in the NHL.

I don't see what Eddie Lack and the rest of Luongo's career has to do with that trade. That trade will be decided by the rest of the careers of Cory Schneider and Bo Horvat.

RE: Lack and Luongo, it's relevant as to whether it was a good move or not, to trade away goaltending for a pick that was a forward.

If Cory was proven as ready to be a workload starter, he'd have started 40 games so far this season, not 30. After he answers that question, he'll have to prove that he can win more than 1 playoff game.

 

[opendoor]

It's not something you can equate with fact. But being discussed in detail on the Devils board if you want to read through that. Also clear if you watch Broduer, as we know what Schneider is like with the puck. The idea is that Broduer gets the puck up in transistion a lot quicker and smoother, therefore more opportunites come off the rush and with the defence still getting back or changing. That would explain the higher shooting percentage with Broduer in net as those type of chances have a higher opportunity of going in the net.

If there is indeed a big causal relationship, then why was the team shooting percentage with him in net way lower in previous years?

Think how many thousands of shots a team takes in a season and then think how many of those a goalie has anything to do with. Do you really think Brodeur is capable of driving that upwards to any great degree? I mean, they're converting on nearly 25% more shots this year compared to last year with him in net.

And if Brodeur is springing guys left and right to high percentage chances that is resulting in all of this offense, why does he only have 2 assists on the year?

 

[Reign Nateo]

Thank you. This notion that Brodeur is a catalyst for offence is ridiculous. When I look at his wins I see teams with weak defensive structure: Ottawa, Washington, Montreal. I'll give him Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh because they're decent defensively but don't pretend that St. Louis is comparable to Washington in terms of defense.

http://pucksandpitchforks.com/2014/01/05/alarming-numbers-cory-schneider/

Touches on the puckhandling notion as well as other factors as to why the Devils struggle to score with Scheider in net, although it has gotten better lately. Probably not the main reason, but looks like part of it from what I've seen and read.

 

[Reign Nateo]

If there is indeed a big causal relationship, then why was the team shooting percentage with him in net way lower in previous years?

Think how many thousands of shots a team takes in a season and then think how many of those a goalie has anything to do with. Do you really think Brodeur is capable of driving that upwards to any great degree? I mean, they're converting on nearly 25% more shots this year compared to last year with him in net.

And if Brodeur is springing guys left and right to high percentage chances that is resulting in all of this offense, why does he only have 2 assists on the year?

Similar to that article I posted, I don't see it as the only reason, just one of many reasons. Again, this comes from reading the "Marty vs. Cory" thread on the Devils board. Probably a better place to demand answers on this one!

 

[thepuckmonster]

http://pucksandpitchforks.com/2014/01/05/alarming-numbers-cory-schneider/

Touches on the puckhandling notion as well as other factors as to why the Devils struggle to score with Scheider in net, although it has gotten better lately. Probably not the main reason, but looks like part of it from what I've seen and read.

I understand that, but I think it reflects on bad coaching to continue to run a system that is outdated. It's like fitting a square peg in a round hole. Schneider is leaps and bounds better than Brodeur in every aspect of the position aside from puck-handling. If they wanted to continue with the puckhandling model they should have tried to get Mike Smith last year.

 

[Tiranis]

http://pucksandpitchforks.com/2014/01/05/alarming-numbers-cory-schneider/

Touches on the puckhandling notion as well as other factors as to why the Devils struggle to score with Scheider in net, although it has gotten better lately. Probably not the main reason, but looks like part of it from what I've seen and read.

That's a horrible article. Might as well be straight out of the 70s.

 

[Dezmoto]

I understand that, but I think it reflects on bad coaching to continue to run a system that is outdated. It's like fitting a square peg in a round hole. Schneider is leaps and bounds better than Brodeur in every aspect of the position aside from puck-handling. If they wanted to continue with the puckhandling model they should have tried to get Mike Smith last year.

Who says they didn't try?

 

[thepuckmonster]

Who says they didn't try?

I'll guarantee you that they weren't seeing as they had just been to the SCF with Brodeur and gave him a nice 2 year 10M contract afterwards. It wasn't until last year where there goal tending started to kill them.

 

[opendoor]

Similar to that article I posted, I don't see it as the only reason, just one of many reasons. Again, this comes from reading the "Marty vs. Cory" thread on the Devils board. Probably a better place to demand answers on this one!

That article is comically bad and devoid of any actual analysis. Just a bunch of embarrassing speculative cliches.

If the team was generating more shots with Brodeur in net, then there might be something to this argument that Brodeur can more effectively relieve pressure leading to more possession time and thus more offense. But that's not the case at all. The Devils shot differential is basically identical regardless of who's in net.

Like I said above, if someone wants to draw a causal relationship between Brodeur and more offense, they're going to have to explain how Brodeur's play this year is driving a 25% increase in shooting percentage compared to last year. And him springing guys for high percentage chances doesn't really hold water because he's not picking up a bunch of assists.

 

[Dezmoto]

That's a horrible article. Might as well be straight out of the 70s.

How is that a horrible article? Please elaborate with something more substantial that "straight out of the 70s"

There is a pretty big difference between a goaltender moving the puck forward to a D or F than dumping it in the corner. The puck moves up faster and gives your skaters more opportunities to break out before the defenders get set.

 

[Tiranis]

How is that a horrible article? Please elaborate with something more substantial that "straight out of the 70s"

There is a pretty big difference between a goaltender moving the puck forward to a D or F than dumping it in the corner. The puck moves up faster and gives your skaters more opportunities to break out before the defenders get set.

opendoor said it all, I really have nothing to add. Luck is a much better (and probable) explanation for the difference in On-ice Sh% between Brodeur and Schneider than leadership/Brodeur's puck movement/etc.

 

[Verviticus]

How is that a horrible article? Please elaborate with something more substantial that "straight out of the 70s"

There is a pretty big difference between a goaltender moving the puck forward to a D or F than dumping it in the corner. The puck moves up faster and gives your skaters more opportunities to break out before the defenders get set.

see this post

That article is comically bad and devoid of any actual analysis. Just a bunch of embarrassing speculative cliches.

If the team was generating more shots with Brodeur in net, then there might be something to this argument that Brodeur can more effectively relieve pressure leading to more possession time and thus more offense. But that's not the case at all. The Devils shot differential is basically identical regardless of who's in net.

Like I said above, if someone wants to draw a causal relationship between Brodeur and more offense, they're going to have to explain how Brodeur's play this year is driving a 25% increase in shooting percentage compared to last year. And him springing guys for high percentage chances doesn't really hold water because he's not picking up a bunch of assists.

 

[me2]

Good point about the puck handling.

If anything it should show in shots and goals against (puck is out before the offensive can get shots). 24.925 shots/60m, Schneider 25.315. There is a small difference there but it is noise ie 11 shots difference over the season.

In several of the games I watched with Schneider in net the Devils blew more prime scoring chances in a game than the canucks generated in the last 5. Having Brodeur in net would not have caused them to hit the empty nets or convert on the blown 2 on 1s and 1 on 0s. If they were not generating chances with Schneider in net then that might explain the scoring but they were generating the chances just not converting.

 

[Lindt]

It's hard to compare to goalies where one has played 30 games and the other 13, which was my original point back a couple of pages. You can't assume that, since one guy has better stats playing half as many games, that he's a better goaltender. BUT if you have two goalies that have played a similar number of games, on the same team, it's a fair argument that the goalie with more wins has been doing more to win games than the other.

My original argument was that you cannot, at this point in time, say that Cory Schneider is either an "elite" goaltender or even that he's categorically a better goaltender than Roberto Luongo. Nor can you say, with so few games played by him, that Lack is better than Luongo. And since then, it's spun off into all this other BS.

Goaltenders can control how many pucks they stop. They cannot control how many goals their team scores. If you think wins are a more important stat than SV%, you're completely out to lunch. Especially when the GAA and SV% numbers aren't even close, to suggest Brodeur has outplayed Schneider because he has a couple more wins is completely absurd.

You're probably right about Lack, it's too early, but Schneider is categorically better than Luongo now, and has been for a few years.

 

[Lundface*]

Hey look, the LA Kings have no offense, and the 2nd best GA in the league. They're only 3 points ahead of us and are on a 1-8-1 skid. They have offensive talent on their team at least so they should be able to turn it around...they also have a GM who isn't afraid to make a trade to bring in help, but it just goes to show that you need your forwards to score in order to win.

Luongo isn't that good anymore the sooner you come to terms with it the better. Offence isn't stopping him from making saves and hasn't affected his rookie back up from outplaying him. The same low risk game that leads to little offence leads to fewer chances against. Behind a different team who knows if Luongo can even maintain his average play...

 

[Dezmoto]

Goaltenders can control how many pucks they stop. They cannot control how many goals their team scores. If you think wins are a more important stat than SV%, you're completely out to lunch. Especially when the GAA and SV% numbers aren't even close, to suggest Brodeur has outplayed Schneider because he has a couple more wins is completely absurd.

You're probably right about Lack, it's too early, but Schneider is categorically better than Luongo now, and has been for a few years.

Well, Brodeur must have some sort of influence because the fact remains, the Devils score more goals when he's in net. Whether is leadership, puck moving or whatever, it shows up on the stat sheets. Or maybe you think it's just a season-long coincidence? My point with Schneider vs Brodeur is that he hasn't been able to convincingly declare himself the #1 goalie. So obviously, the coach and GM haven't been convinced either, as they've been pretty much splitting the games between the two goalies. I'm pretty sure they both know more about hockey than you or I.

Luongo isn't as bad as everyone is saying. He may not be able to steal games when he's getting 40 shots against like he used to, but he still is regularly winning games where he's facing over 30 shots. He can't win alone, he needs help. He's only lost 1 game this season when the Canucks have scored 3 or more goals and he's not just facing a lot of shots, he's facing quality shots. On so many plays in the Boston game I was wondering where the hell the defense was. 2 on 1's, breakaways, people left all alone in the slot. Luongo made some incredible saves on choice opportunities but he can't stop all of them all the time, it's ridiculous. The rest of the team needs to participate. Do you think Schneider faces those kinds plays? No, he doesn't. New Jersey also plays in a weak conference where only only 2 teams have scored over 170 goals whereas the west has 4. Six of the top 10 teams in the league are in the Western Conference, so who on average is facing tougher competition every night? People like to crucify goaltenders in Vancouver and blame all the team's woes on them, but Luongo is absolutely not the reason the Canucks haven't been winning games.

 

[Verviticus]

Well, Brodeur must have some sort of influence

this is wrong and thus the rest of the things you wrote are probably wrong too

 

[Dezmoto]

this is wrong and thus the rest of the things you wrote are probably wrong too

Such an intelligent rebuttal.

Have we all forgotten that in 2005 they changed the rules of where a goalie could handle the puck because of Brodeur? Yup, his puck handling can't possibly influence the outcome of a game, the NHL just like's making up new rules for the fun of it.

 

[Verviticus]

its kind of up to you to prove how and why its affecting things, not just "heres a difference, maybe"

 

[opendoor]

Such an intelligent rebuttal.

Have we all forgotten that in 2005 they changed the rules of where a goalie could handle the puck because of Brodeur? Yup, his puck handling can't possibly influence the outcome of a game, the NHL just like's making up new rules for the fun of it.

Those rules were made to stimulate offense. You're trying to argue that Brodeur's puck handling generates goals, so why would they hinder it if the goal coming out of the '05 lockout was more offense?

 

[Dezmoto]

its kind of up to you to prove how and why its affecting things, not just "heres a difference, maybe"

So you can't say how I'm wrong then.

 

[Verviticus]

So you can't say how I'm wrong then.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=79447473&postcount=338

 

[thepuckmonster]

So you can't say how I'm wrong then.

Well, your theory has no basis in validity, so unless you have statistical evidence and causal links (beyond 'more goals' and 'more wins'), yeah you can be called wrong. Especially when other proven statistics and methods have stated otherwise.

 

[Dezmoto]

Those rules were made to stimulate offense. You're trying to argue that Brodeur's puck handling generates goals, so why would they hinder it if the goal coming out of the '05 lockout was more offense?

That specific rule was not to create more offense, it was to stop goalies from going to the corner to get the puck, and then making an outlet pass. The goalie doing that allowed the defense and forwards to cheat up ice and turn around on the rush without having to chase a dump-in.