News Article: The rise, fall, and stalled rebuild of Ken Holland’s Red Wings

[Nut Upstrom]

I'm actually happy to see a local writer take Holland to task for these things.
Good to see someone challenge the status quo thinking on the Athanasiou thing, too.

It's absolutely unforgivable that the Wings let a few hundred thousand dollars turn into this contract mess.

The Wings need to be rebuilding with their young players.

The real reason why Holland has to hold the line is so obvious.

Holland already has to trade Sheahan just to sign Athanasiou.
If he signs Athanasiou, then he has to make a second move.

The real reason isn't Athanasiou's defense or the comparables.
The reason is Holland's idiotic salary moves tied his hands.

I agree with your first statement - a light needs to be shed on the state of the team and the state of the front office, no more free passes and coddling for mistakes.
I disagree with you on Athanasiou for the most part, but there's already a lengthy thread dedicated to that, so I'm not going to comment any further on that situation here.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

With regard to Winnipeg, they do do a lot of good things, but they have the second most conservative GM in the league and a bad coach. They have their problems.

As for the content of the article. It's nothing we don't already know. I've lived in Philadelphia for several years now, if he was the GM here, he would be driven out, the fans don't tolerate mediocrity because this city does nothing but have to deal with mediocrity.

 

[icKx]

Yeah, I mean literally nothing new here. It quotes a number of articles that have also been posted here and usually trigger the exact same discussions.

Well this board has been considered a bastion of negativity for a long time now. I found it interesting that the outlier opinions have been mainstreamed, apparently.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Mostly it's that having an identity is a hell of a lot more important than SUCK SUCK SUCK and hope you get lucky. If you don't have an identity, choose one and go with it. If you're puttering around listlessly with your old one, put the work in and focus in on getting a new one.

You want to be a puck possession team? Go get skilled puck possessors. Big hulking monsters who are intimidating to play against? You could do that too. Basically, pick a route for your team and stick with it.

Chasing elite players is a fools game, because there is no tried and true way to pull them. Build a solid base for your team instead of chasing the shiny toy.

I know that the first post about this was kinda cliche. Just more saying that sustainable success comes from building a "Red Wings" way. Or building a "Patriots" way. Not that we even necessarily have one right now. Just that a consistent, sustainable message and team building philosophy is a hell of a lot more important to develop than trade everyone over 30 and pray to god we hit the lottery.

I know what you're saying but it's honestly hoping to get lucky either way. The tear down way gives you better odds. When I talk about tanking or rebuilding I'm not expecting a McDavid. But this team is missing big pieces. They can be found with good draft picks even if they're not generational players.

As for the team identity, I don't know that you can establish that first, at least not where the Wings roster is at this point because there's almost nothing to build around. You take the best guy available in the draft and hope he pans out. Then you start to develop an identity that hopefully plays to your best players' strengths.

If you're drafting guys right now, what identity do you go with for the Wings to help choose them? I just don't think this team has had an identity since Lidstrom retired.

 

[Marky9er]

Ah, yes.... Hubris. That explains it.

 

[Winger98]

Meh. I have a few issues with this. Chasing elite players is the only way, even if there is not a tried and true way of getting one.

Also creating a solid base can actually be counter-productive towards getting one in a way.

well, I think the tried and true way is sucking for awhile and drafting high enough that your odds increase in pulling these guys into your system. It goes with your point that creating a solid base without that high end talent gets in the way of it because you end up drafting later with your mediocre team. The likelihood of pulling that top line forward or D fall dramatically even within the first round (as you know, as you've posted a lot of the percentages for this over the past couple of years). If you're happy drafting 15th instead of 5th because it means you have a better team, that's fine and all. But I think it also means you're far less likely to be drafting 25th or later, at least with any consistency, which should be the real goal.

 

[Dotter]

Oh look... another bash Ken Holland thread. How wonderful, haven't seen one of these in atleast 2 hours.

 

[BinCookin]

Mostly it's that having an identity...

You want to be a puck possession team? Go get skilled puck possessors. Big hulking monsters who are intimidating to play against? You could do that too. Basically, pick a route for your team and stick with it.

all of the first round guys have been good skaters even when that is not their main attribute: Mantha, Svechnikov, obviously Larkin, Rasmussen is not slow either.

Ah, yes.... Hubris. That explains it.

Ya I didnt really buy that part either

 

[Redder Winger]

Svechnikov isn't a great skater. That's probably the one thing holding him back.

 

[alko]

Surprised , how fast has this team fell down. From "Top stacked team with great potential" to "Average team with one or 2 good prospects".

In season 2012/2013, when Griffins won Calder Cup in AHL, there was suuuuuch big hype over their young core.

Mrazek and Tom McCollum - 2 walls in net with sky potential.

Nyquist, Tatar, Ferraro, Sheahan, Jurco, Joakim Andersson, Jan Mursak, Nestrasil, Järnkrok, Pulkkinen and maybe others - Next stars in making.

Maybe there was gap in Defence, but the fans were sure, this issue will be addressed with trades or free agency.

That was only 4 years ago.

 

[Powerslave]

We're in for a 7-8 years of being bottom of the league. It's all good, they just need to dump Holland.

 

[Dotter]

Red Wings have been so good for so long. What is happening now is nothing more than design by the NHL brain trust to "spread the wealth" to give other teams a chance. NHL have literally changed the rules when Detroit had no draft picks, and upcoming big salary.

Wings were riding the momentum of a cup in 2008. Finals in 2009. And having elite talent in their prime up to 2013. At that point, Wings still had two of the best centers in league. With one having a cap hit that NHL changed the rules on (recapture penalty). Another way for NHL to hold Detroit back.

It was announced in 2013 Detroit was building a billion dollar arena and Detroit already had a playoff streak of what... 23 years? Add in the fact that Mike Ilitch's health was starting fail... Wings streak had to continue.

Add in all the facts, you'll start seeing the bigger picture other than sitting on your lazy boy at home saying.... "yeah I'd just burn't it down and started over", while taking a bite out of your $1 menu McDonald's burger. This is a real business with real businessmen who pay millions upon millions every single year. You don't just pull the plug on the streak. Not if you have a half a brain cell.

Wings are where they are at because of their success. This is exactly how the NHL wanted it. Wings have to "pay their dues..."

Also note: Ken Holland traded only one 1st round pick back in like 2012 that was 19th? Big freaking deal. They've been hording and drafting with their picks 99.99% of the time.

 

[Frk It]

Wings are where they are at because of their success. This is exactly how the NHL wanted it.

I will agree with you that it's incredibly hard to maintain success in the current landscape of the NHL... but the latter part makes me cringe. We made choices. Things could have been done differently. Everyone is working under the same rules.

 

[HIFE]

When railing this article for the lack of original content people should realize it's from the MetroTimes. For 30 years MT has been a weekly entertainment guide that peppers in news and opinion pieces. This article wasn't written for sports fans, it's directed at those in the Detroit area who know nothing about our pro teams.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I will agree with you that it's incredibly hard to maintain success in the current landscape of the NHL... but the latter part makes me cringe. We made choices. Things could have been done differently. Everyone is working under the same rules.

And everyone except us have gone through periods of sucking in the last 25 years, now it's our turn. Of course things could have been done differently, but mainly we were just way too good at maintaining success with our good core to ever get the chance to add the top 10 or top 15 picks that we would have needed in order to be sitting here with a couple of pieces of the new core already set. If we would have had a garbage year in 2008 instead of winning the cup we could have drafted Erik Karlsson and our biggest problem of the current roster would have been solved. Of course we made some misses later in the draft (Sheahan instead of Kuznetsov was one) and if you use your imagination and lots of hindsight maybe there was some magical trade we could have made at some perfect window of opportunity.. but yeah, mostly we were too good too consistently to ever be able to replace all the talent that started to bleed from not only the team but the organization as a whole.

Down years hit everyone even if you make almost all the right moves, because in a league like this the other 29 teams are always trying to find ways to beat the best team and eventually gravity pulls you down. Now the question is, do we stay down? And for how long? Personally I think we'll turn this thing around faster than people think. We're 1 or 2 years away from a big resurgance of talent on the team as Cholowski/Rasmussen/Hronek/Saarijarvi/Hicketts/Svechnikov/Bertuzzi along with hopefully another top 10 pick or two start making the team.

Surprised , how fast has this team fell down. From "Top stacked team with great potential" to "Average team with one or 2 good prospects".

In season 2012/2013, when Griffins won Calder Cup in AHL, there was suuuuuch big hype over their young core.

Mrazek and Tom McCollum - 2 walls in net with sky potential.

Nyquist, Tatar, Ferraro, Sheahan, Jurco, Joakim Andersson, Jan Mursak, Nestrasil, Järnkrok, Pulkkinen and maybe others - Next stars in making.

Maybe there was gap in Defence, but the fans were sure, this issue will be addressed with trades or free agency.

That was only 4 years ago.

Rewriting history imo. People always have hope in prospects but very few of those names were ever mentioned as the next stars in the making.

 

[Frk It]

And everyone except us have gone through periods of sucking in the last 25 years, now it's our turn. Of course things could have been done differently, but mainly we were just way too good at maintaining success with our good core to ever get the chance to add the top 10 or top 15 picks that we would have needed in order to be sitting here with a couple of pieces of the new core already set. If we would have had a garbage year in 2008 instead of winning the cup we could have drafted Erik Karlsson and our biggest problem of the current roster would have been solved. Of course we made some misses later in the draft (Sheahan instead of Kuznetsov was one) and if you use your imagination and lots of hindsight maybe there was some magical trade we could have made at some perfect window of opportunity.. but yeah, mostly we were too good too consistently to ever be able to replace all the talent that started to bleed from not only the team but the organization as a whole.

Down years hit everyone even if you make almost all the right moves, because in a league like this the other 29 teams are always trying to find ways to beat the best team and eventually gravity pulls you down. Now the question is, do we stay down? And for how long? Personally I think we'll turn this thing around faster than people think. We're 1 or 2 years away from a big resurgance of talent on the team as Cholowski/Rasmussen/Hronek/Saarijarvi/Hicketts/Svechnikov/Bertuzzi along with hopefully another top 10 pick or two start making the team.

I think there's a level of arrogance in thinking you can turn things around that fast and not have to be bad for a little while like everyone else has had to do. I don't mean that to be offensive, I think the Wings feel the same way you do. I think they will (unfortunately) be in for a wake up call. We are far too conservative for that.

We have thought a lot of non blue-chip prospects could become blue chip players. Before the group you like to put in backslashes, it was a different group of players in backslashes. We will probably need good old fashioned blue chip prospects (top 3-5 picks) like every other team has. It's just a matter of how bad do we want to drag our feet until we get there. Or maybe the lottery balls throw us a bone.

 

[jkutswings]

I have zero problem accepting the inevitable slide down the mountain after such an incredible window of success. I'm also fine with saying it could take 10 years to turn it around, or that it could take multiple attempts before even a halfway effective turnaround happens.

It's what comes across as arrogance, when relying on multiple B grade prospects turning into multiple A+ grade NHL players - at the most vital of positions - that I scratch my head at.

Guys like Mantha and Larkin and Cholowski and Hronek should be the (excellent) supplemental guys BEHIND the core players taken at the top of the draft, not the best hope of turning things around. Their pedigree simply isn't good enough to justify 2 or more of them as the expected bedrock of the team.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I think there's a level of arrogance in thinking you can turn things around that fast and not have to be bad for a little while like everyone else has had to do. I don't mean that to be offensive, I think the Wings feel the same way you do. I think they will (unfortunately) be in for a wake up call. We are far too conservative for that.

We have thought a lot of non blue-chip prospects could become blue chip players. Before the group you like to put in backslashes, it was a different group of players in backslashes. We will probably need good old fashioned blue chip prospects (top 3-5 picks) like every other team has. It's just a matter of how bad do we want to drag our feet until we get there. Or maybe the lottery balls throw us a bone.

Well the previous group that people like to mention as equal was in general drafted later and imo didn't contain as much real world results (players performing at a high level compared to peers, players producing in the AHL, players showing results in the NHL). And it's important to note that while a turnaround in the talent level and general trajectory of the team can come quickly, it doesn't have to mean we establish ourselves as a perennial playoff team right away again. Maybe we get a top 5 pick this year. Maybe we make the playoffs next year. Then the year after draft top 10 again. Then maybe we miss the playoffs narrowly and win the lottery. And in 4-5 years start to get back to the top again. That's just one completely hypothetical turn of events, point being it's impossible to predict the future and things don't have to be completely linear. Or we draft Dahlin and him, Rasmussen and Cholowski step in next season along with a new coach and we just make a giant leap forward like Columbus (for example). Who the heck knows? I'm hopeful the doom and gloom attitude will start to wash away this season with guys like Larkin and Mantha bringing some hope back.

Guys like Mantha and Larkin and Cholowski and Hronek should be the (excellent) supplemental guys BEHIND the core players taken at the top of the draft, not the best hope of turning things around. Their pedigree simply isn't good enough to justify 2 or more of them as the expected bedrock of the team.

I find your lack of faith disturbing. Yeah.. it's LIKELY we need at least 1 core piece that's drafted really high (top 10? top 5? top 3? ...top1?), but with Larkin and Mantha being above PPG this season (it's early blahblahblah) who is worried about their "pedigree"? A bluechipper on D is our biggest need and it's very likely someone we draft in '18 will be our best D prospect in ages, but let's not forget a lot of the best teams are built with some top D that aren't the highest picks. Keith, Letang, Karlsson, Chara, Lidstrom, Burns etc etc. Heck Pittsburgh won the cup while icing a pretty mediocre looking D on paper. Toronto's D isn't very hot but they might be one of the favorites this year. Yet we're this team that's doomed to go nowhere unless we have top 5 drafted bluechip #1C, #1W and #1D.

 

[Frk It]

Well the previous group that people like to mention as equal was in general drafted later and imo didn't contain as much real world results (players performing at a high level compared to peers, players producing in the AHL, players showing results in the NHL). And it's important to note that while a turnaround in the talent level and general trajectory of the team can come quickly, it doesn't have to mean we establish ourselves as a perennial playoff team right away again. Maybe we get a top 5 pick this year. Maybe we make the playoffs next year. Then the year after draft top 10 again. Then maybe we miss the playoffs narrowly and win the lottery. And in 4-5 years start to get back to the top again. That's just one completely hypothetical turn of events, point being it's impossible to predict the future and things don't have to be completely linear. Or we draft Dahlin and him, Rasmussen and Cholowski step in next season along with a new coach and we just make a giant leap forward like Columbus (for example). Who the heck knows? I'm hopeful the doom and gloom attitude will start to wash away this season with guys like Larkin and Mantha bringing some hope back.

I mean Rasmussen is the only prospect in this current group that was drafted significantly higher than anyone in the previous group. And you had guys like Sproul winning CHL defenseman of the year, Mrazek putting on a clinic at the WJC, and so forth with the last group... so they certainly did well compared to their peers.

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade. You have every right to think this group of prospects will have a different outcome. That's what we all should be pulling for. But it doesn't make it probable.

Columbus isn't a bad team to try and replicate, they are fun to watch.

Yeah.. it's LIKELY we need at least 1 core piece that's drafted really high (top 10? top 5? top 3? ...top1?), but with Larkin and Mantha being above PPG this season (it's early blahblahblah) who is worried about their "pedigree"?

Larkin's assist production, and him slowing up and waiting and using his teammates more is by far the most encouraging thing for me so far this season.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I mean Rasmussen is the only prospect in this current group that was drafted significantly higher than anyone in the previous group. And you had guys like Sproul winning CHL defenseman of the year, Mrazek putting on a clinic at the WJC, and so forth with the last group... so they certainly did well compared to their peers.

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade. You have every right to think this group of prospects will have a different outcome. That's what we all should be pulling for. But it doesn't make it probable.

Columbus isn't a bad team to try and replicate, they are fun to watch.



Larkin's assist production, and him slowing up and waiting and using his teammates more is by far the most encouraging thing for me so far this season.

Eh, 15-20 is still a lot higher than what a lot of the guys we had hopes for 5 years ago were drafted. The nice thing about drafting in the top 10 is more than anything that it doesn't take as long to see the players materialize. This is perhaps the breakout year of our '13 and '14 first round picks. It's taken some time, but that doesn't mean these guys are necessarily nothing but secondary pieces. We've got Svechnikov and Rasmussen coming soon. I refuse to accept that Mantha/Larkin/Ras/Svech is a group of players that are equal to Nyquist/Tatar/Jarnkrok/Jurco/Pulkkinen. No. I don't see it.
It's fine to believe Cholowski is a Kindl/Smith clone and Hronek/VS/Hicketts combined have the same potential as one Sproul, personally I don't see that either but whatever. However we've drafted so many d-men in the last few drafts that we're now building a depth that increases our odds of finding some gems, unlike when we had Kindl/Smith or XO/Sproul and they were literally all we had. Add a top 10 d-man in '18 and we're really on our way.

 

[The Zermanator]

Guys like Mantha and Larkin and Cholowski and Hronek should be the (excellent) supplemental guys BEHIND the core players taken at the top of the draft, not the best hope of turning things around. Their pedigree simply isn't good enough to justify 2 or more of them as the expected bedrock of the team.

Agree 100%, that's been my position for a while now. We have a great group of complementary players but no true 'drink-stirrers' so to speak.

That's what sucks so much about Holland still stubbornly shooting for the playoffs. Perfect opportunity to truly tank this year with what seems to be a generational dman available in the draft, but instead we'll likely be getting another complementary player at #10 or so.

If it were up to me Green and Daley would be traded, as well as Nielsen, Sheahan, and others who won't be a part of the Wings' next rise (if we can get anything for them). Their presence is redundant because they will not be a part of the group that takes this team out of the basement. So trading them does two things, brings in additional assets like draft picks, and maximizes the value of our current draft picks by ensuring they'll be higher, even giving us a fighting chance at lucking out in the lottery.

But that's not going to happen as long as Holland insists on having a foot on either side of the rebuild/status quo line.

 

[TheMule93]

when it comes to the draft lottery we all need to perform some kind of ritual as an offering to the hockey gods. We need dahlin or svech. Any elite talent, really. Obviously we prefer the dman but no way would I complain about Svech. Plus the brother dynamic would be awesome.

 

[Bondurant]

Thanks for posting. The article is worth a read if you've skipped over it. One point referenced was the staggering change in the salary structure post cap. I wasn't aware just how much payroll was cut over a mere two seasons.

A downturn is not shocking after years of success but Holland has shown he's not capable of managing a roster in the cap era. He's not the man the job now requires.

 

[Redder Winger]

Drafting good players isn't enough.
You need great ones.

Every team in the NHL drafts Larkins and Manthas and Athanasious.

Where are the Doughtys and Keiths and Toews and Kanes and Kopitars and Crosbys and Malkins etc.
We don't have

 

[Powerslave]

I honestly hope they're not fooling themselves with a postseason appearance. Even if they can make it into PO somehow, what's the point? We need top 10 picks ffs