The Prospects Thread XX - Stats, Lists in OP

[CanaFan]

If it isn't uncommon maybe you should provide a long list of prospects who managed to succeed under those circumstances?

Well if you limit the analysis to players who played in the CHL and went on to have notable careers in the NHL, I came up with at least 7 players from 2003-2011:

Jeff Carter 1.16 in draft, 1.16 in draft+1
Ryan Getzlaf 0.97 in draft, 1.08 in draft+2 (up but barely given it is a draft+2)
Andrew Ladd 1.06 in draft, 0.69 in draft +1
Derek Brassard 2.00 in draft, 1.79 in draft+1 (injury shortened)
Logan Couture 1.44 in draft, 1.14 in draft +1
Zack Kassian 1.04 in draft, 0.82 in draft+1
Ryan Strome 1.63 in draft, 1.48 in draft+1

Keep in mind the total number of CHL players drafted in the first round who returned to junior after the draft AND went on to have notable NHL careers (regardless of draft+1 or draft+2 performance) isn't terribly long. You're looking at maybe 25-35 players who fit that criteria (as excludes all europeans and US collegiates, and anyone who went straight to the NHL like Kane, Stamkos, etc). So the % of players who stagnated or regressed post-draft (or draft+2 in the case of Getzlaf) is about 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 over that span. Not the majority but also not at the margins of probability either. It happens reasonably often to players that today are pretty good players.


Edit: Here's a list of all the players I looked at. Stopped at 2011 and generally tried to stick to top 6 players or players expected to potentially play there (in the case of Kassian).



*Nearly flat in draft+2

 

[Zarpan]

Well if you limit the analysis to players who played in the CHL and went on to have notable careers in the NHL, I came up with at least 7 players from 2003-2011:

Jeff Carter 1.16 in draft, 1.16 in draft+1
Ryan Getzlaf 0.97 in draft, 1.08 in draft+2 (up but barely given it is a draft+2)
Andrew Ladd 1.06 in draft, 0.69 in draft +1
Derek Brassard 2.00 in draft, 1.79 in draft+1 (injury shortened)
Logan Couture 1.44 in draft, 1.14 in draft +1
Zack Kassian 1.04 in draft, 0.82 in draft+1
Ryan Strome 1.63 in draft, 1.48 in draft+1

Keep in mind the total number of CHL players drafted in the first round who returned to junior after the draft AND went on to have notable NHL careers (regardless of draft+1 or draft+2 performance) isn't terribly long. You're looking at maybe 25-35 players who fit that criteria (as excludes all europeans and US collegiates, and anyone who went straight to the NHL like Kane, Stamkos, etc). So the % of players who stagnated or regressed post-draft (or draft+2 in the case of Getzlaf) is about 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 over that span. Not the majority but also not at the margins of probability either. It happens reasonably often to players that today are pretty good players.

Can also add:

Chris Stewart - 1.40 in draft, 1.34 in draft+1 . Inconsistent, but he's had a couple of very good seasons.

That's a pretty decent list given the small pool of players that fit the criteria of CHL forwards who returned to play draft+1 and then had a decent NHL career.

 

[opendoor]

I don't know, I'd say there's a bit of a difference between a guy leveling off or dropping down a bit in his +1 season when he's already putting up elite numbers like Brassard, Couture, or Strome did as opposed to a lower scoring guy like Kassian doing the same.

 

[CanaFan]

Can also add:

Chris Stewart - 1.40 in draft, 1.34 in draft+1 . Inconsistent, but he's had a couple of very good seasons.

That's a pretty decent list given the small pool of players that fit the criteria of CHL forwards who returned to play draft+1 and then had a decent NHL career.

Good add, thanks!

 

[Wilch]

Well if you limit the analysis to players who played in the CHL and went on to have notable careers in the NHL, I came up with at least 7 players from 2003-2011:

Jeff Carter 1.16 in draft, 1.16 in draft+1
Ryan Getzlaf 0.97 in draft, 1.08 in draft+2 (up but barely given it is a draft+2)
Andrew Ladd 1.06 in draft, 0.69 in draft +1
Derek Brassard 2.00 in draft, 1.79 in draft+1 (injury shortened)
Logan Couture 1.44 in draft, 1.14 in draft +1
Zack Kassian 1.04 in draft, 0.82 in draft+1
Ryan Strome 1.63 in draft, 1.48 in draft+1

Edit: Here's a list of all the players I looked at. Stopped at 2011 and generally tried to stick to top 6 players or players expected to potentially play there (in the case of Kassian).



*Nearly flat in draft+2

Thanks for the analysis.

But as opendoor mentioned, I would take out the guys who were already producing at a blazing pace because they've already demonstrated the ability to do so.

As such, I think we should exclude Brassard, Couture and Strome.

The Carter, Getzlaf, Ladd and Kassian comparison makes a lot more sense here, in terms of production.

Hopefully Virtanen turns out to be more or less like Carter - they even compare a bit stylistically on offense.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

The list is interesting but I'm not sure how applicable it is to Virtanen. He came off major shoulder surgery and missed the start of the season. I'd give him until after Xmas. It took Kesler and others that long to recover.

 

[CanaFan]

Thanks for the analysis.

But as opendoor mentioned, I would take out the guys who were already producing at a blazing pace because they've already demonstrated the ability to do so.

As such, I think we should exclude Brassard, Couture and Strome.

The Carter, Getzlaf, Ladd and Kassian comparison makes a lot more sense here, in terms of production.

Hopefully Virtanen turns out to be more or less like Carter - they even compare a bit stylistically on offense.

Ya I am not sure how useful the entire exercise is at this point since we don't know what PPG Jake will finish the season with. For all the fretting he is still above PPG and has looked better in recent weeks. I personally think he could still finish up around a 1.1 to 1.2 PPG by year's end which would change the comparables again. Just interesting to see players who didn't necessarily take a big step in PPG right away and turned out fine.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

I don't know, I'd say there's a bit of a difference between a guy leveling off or dropping down a bit in his +1 season when he's already putting up elite numbers like Brassard, Couture, or Strome did as opposed to a lower scoring guy like Kassian doing the same.

Yeah. Getzlaf too put up 1.53 PPG in his draft + 1 season. His following season was certainly disappointing, but at least he had already demonstrated the ability to tear up juniors.

Carter and Ladd are the only real comparables from that list, imo. And Carter was in a situation where he actually improved his goal scoring pace, but the Greyhound goal scoring dropped from an already low 232 goals way down to 196, so it's somewhat understandable his assist totals would drop.

 

[Bean in Charge]

The list is interesting but I'm not sure how applicable it is to Virtanen. He came off major shoulder surgery and missed the start of the season. I'd give him until after Xmas. It took Kesler and others that long to recover.

None of these lists are comparable. You cannot compare to prospects in terms of development. These aren't robots. They are humans, and there are thousands of variables that effect their development. Everything from personal relationships to body type to maturity to what they ate for breakfast.

Every case is completely unique. There are trends, sure... but the trends exists because there are a finite range of possibilities in looking at goals, assists and points as metrics of measurement. So all we're doing is forcing comparisons on players that don't really make much sense.

Don't get me wrong, i'm stats #1 fan. I LOVE the analytical movement the NHL going in. But i think trying to find numerical proof of how a prospect will turn out is just a way to get yourself worked up and angry.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[BobbyJazzLegs]

Well if you limit the analysis to players who played in the CHL and went on to have notable careers in the NHL, I came up with at least 7 players from 2003-2011:

Jeff Carter 1.16 in draft, 1.16 in draft+1
Ryan Getzlaf 0.97 in draft, 1.08 in draft+2 (up but barely given it is a draft+2)
Andrew Ladd 1.06 in draft, 0.69 in draft +1
Derek Brassard 2.00 in draft, 1.79 in draft+1 (injury shortened)
Logan Couture 1.44 in draft, 1.14 in draft +1
Zack Kassian 1.04 in draft, 0.82 in draft+1
Ryan Strome 1.63 in draft, 1.48 in draft+1

Keep in mind the total number of CHL players drafted in the first round who returned to junior after the draft AND went on to have notable NHL careers (regardless of draft+1 or draft+2 performance) isn't terribly long. You're looking at maybe 25-35 players who fit that criteria (as excludes all europeans and US collegiates, and anyone who went straight to the NHL like Kane, Stamkos, etc). So the % of players who stagnated or regressed post-draft (or draft+2 in the case of Getzlaf) is about 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 over that span. Not the majority but also not at the margins of probability either. It happens reasonably often to players that today are pretty good players.


Edit: Here's a list of all the players I looked at. Stopped at 2011 and generally tried to stick to top 6 players or players expected to potentially play there (in the case of Kassian).



*Nearly flat in draft+2

Haha cant believe you went to that effort and then he just made you work harder.

great read though

 

[Zarpan]

Yeah. Getzlaf too put up 1.53 PPG in his draft + 1 season. His following season was certainly disappointing, but at least he had already demonstrated the ability to tear up juniors.

Carter and Ladd are the only real comparables from that list, imo. And Carter was in a situation where he actually improved his goal scoring pace, but the Greyhound goal scoring dropped from an already low 232 goals way down to 196, so it's somewhat understandable his assist totals would drop.

I think the challenge is that after filtering the list by excluding Getzlaf and people who put up significantly more than a PPG in their draft year, you end up with a pretty short list.

Carter
Ladd
McArdle
Kassian
Paradis
Watson
McNeill
Puempel
Phillips

Since we're doing a lot of exclusions, one could probably exclude Paradis too since his draft year numbers weren't all that good and he was seen as a 2nd rounder before the draft.

That leaves 8 players, three of which are NHLers, one is a bust, and the other four are from the 2010 and 2011 drafts and may or may not have lengthy NHL careers.

Probably too small a set to be able to draw conclusions from, although it certainly appears that some minor statistical regression in draft+1 year is far from a strong indicator of anything.

 

[Depejk*]

Wrong thread

 

[banme*]

Yeah. Getzlaf too put up 1.53 PPG in his draft + 1 season. His following season was certainly disappointing, but at least he had already demonstrated the ability to tear up juniors.

Carter and Ladd are the only real comparables from that list, imo. And Carter was in a situation where he actually improved his goal scoring pace, but the Greyhound goal scoring dropped from an already low 232 goals way down to 196, so it's somewhat understandable his assist totals would drop.

Ahhhhh so you're saying context matters when it benefits your argument, understood.

 

[Southern_Canuck]

Wed Dec 3

AHL

Utica 4 Texas 3 (OT)
Eriksson 38 saves on 41 shots

Friesen, (3) (Acton, DeFazio)
Acton, (3) (Sanguinetti, Gaunce)
Sanguinetti, (3) (O'Reilly, Lafranchise) (PP)
OT O'Reilly, (3) (Jeffrey, Sanguinetti) (PP)

ECHL

Florida 3 Kalamazoo 1
Blomstrand 0 points, -1
Fox 0 points, even
Valk 0 points, -1

OHL

Owen Sound 3 Erie 4
Pettit 1 goal (9th), +1

Ottawa 4 Belleville 5
Subban 0 points, -1

WHL

Prince Albert 5 Prince George 2
Stewart 0 points, +1

S_C

 

[PhilMick]

Pettit blowing up the Cy Young numbers, 9g 0a now.

 

[Powder]

Pettit blowing up the Cy Young numbers, 9g 0a now.

Clearly there's a lack of hockey IQ.

 

[Southern_Canuck]

I wonder what the OHL "record" is for number of goals without being credited with an assist? Clearly Pettit should give up passing altogether and just shoot whenever in possession of the puck... passing is having no effect.

Pettit GP 23 G 9 A 0 P 9 PIM 6 +1

S_C

 

[ihaveyuidonttouchme]

I wonder what the OHL "record" is for number of goals without being credited with an assist? Clearly Pettit should give up passing altogether and just shoot whenever in possession of the puck... passing is having no effect.

Pettit GP 23 G 9 A 0 P 9 PIM 6 +1

S_C

he's definitely going for a Cy young award which is always good sign

 

[Vankiller Whale]

Ahhhhh so you're saying context matters when it benefits your argument, understood.

When did I say context doesn't matter?

 

[vanuck]

ECHL

Florida 3 Kalamazoo 1
Blomstrand 0 points, -1
Fox 0 points, even
Valk 0 points, -1

Fox, Valk and Blomstrand all seem to have gone cold after a hot start. Hope they pick it up again soon.

 

[Zarpan]

I wonder what the OHL "record" is for number of goals without being credited with an assist? Clearly Pettit should give up passing altogether and just shoot whenever in possession of the puck... passing is having no effect.

Pettit GP 23 G 9 A 0 P 9 PIM 6 +1

S_C

I wonder if he could get to 30 goals and no assists? That would be pretty incredible.

I'm sure it would also create some interesting discussions about his worth. One side will point at the 30 goals and talk about how that makes him a decent prospect. The other side will point at the 30 points and talk about how forwards who put up 30 points in their draft+1 year almost never pan out.

 

[PhilMick]

Fox, Valk and Blomstrand all seem to have gone cold after a hot start. Hope they pick it up again soon.

Looks like the KWings as a whole are in a bit of a funk right meow.

 

[Southern_Canuck]

Thu Dec 4

OHL

Oshawa at Peterborough 4pm
Cassels serving suspension game 3

Sault Ste. Marie at Windsor 4pm
McCann

S_C

 

[Nucker101]

God for Pettit for scoring some goals, but when I look at what our current bottom 6 guys produced in junior I still hate the pick. Dorsett and Richardson had very respectable offensive production during their draft years and after.

Draft Year:
Dorsett - 48pts in 68gp
Richardson - 67pts in 67gp
Pettit - 10pts in 53gp

Draft +1:
Dorsett - 64pts in 61gp
Richardson - 16pts in 15gp
Pettit - 9pts in 23gp


Can't help but feel like it's a wasted pick.

 

[Icebreakers]

Cant believe Chartier fell down to 149th overall... the dude isnt even that small. 31 goals in 28 games this year as 1996. Plays for Kelowna. Why dont we ever draft out of BC.