OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: New Quarter Backs for the Handball team!

[Peat]

What indication has this team given that they're not a win-now team?

Their roster.

Maybe they think they are but they're pretty clearly not and I'm not going to cheer them on for ignoring reality.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If a 3rd would be some sort of unacceptable an overpayment for Sutton, I'd be just as content with doing their 4th for Sutton instead. The Browns paid picks #136 and #203 for Jeudy, which is about the value of #124. The Steelers 4th sits at #119, so that's pretty comparable in value.

I just have a really tough time giving a crap about whether pick #98 for Sutton is "too much" when we're talking about pick #98.

Their roster.

Maybe they think they are but they're pretty clearly not and I'm not going to cheer them on for ignoring reality.

The team made the playoffs last year with Pickett, Rudolph and Trubisky as QBs last year. They may not be a top "contender", but they're absolutely a playoff team and anyone can win in the playoffs.

 

[T1K]

The one thing the Steelers will have working in their favor is that they’ll play a completely different style from the rest of the AFC teams. They’re going to play hard defense, run the ball, *hopefully* control the clock.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

It all depends on what it usually depends on. How the quarterback(s) perform.

If the gamble pays off and they fill the needs on the line and wide receiver through the draft and with a trade or two, and if the offense really is opened up with the new OC, then not only are they a playoff team but a real contender.

Those are a lot of ifs though.

And they still are handcuffed by Tomlin.

 

[Empoleon8771]

According to some comments on reddit, a Denver-Pittsburgh deal that was being speculated on was #20 and #51 for #12 and Sutton. Using the Rich Hill chart, that would have Sutton's value at about 34.7, which is about the value of the #101 pick. I'm not super keen on trading up, but I think the value in that deal is definitely reasonable on paper.

I'd rather do #119 and a 2025 late round pick for Sutton, but I think that proposed Sutton deal actually makes sense if the Steelers are hellbent on getting Mitchell.

Although with that being said, PFF released their final mock draft today and it has the Steelers taking Mitchell at 20th overall and both Barton and Powers-Johnson outside of the 1st round.

PFF Analytics 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Seven quarterbacks go in the first round, including J.J. McCarthy to the Giants, Bo Nix to the Broncos | NFL Draft | PFF

What if we lived in a world where teams avoided analytically unsound decisions in the draft? Well, this is exactly what this mock aims to achieve, as it reflects how teams should approach their picks from an analytical point of view.

www.pff.com

 

[Empoleon8771]

Actually it seems like a ton of sources are dumping their last mock drafts today. Here's who some of the big ones have the Steelers taking:

-PFF: Mitchell (CB)
-The Athletic: Fuaga
-The Ringer: Mitchell (WR)
-Walter Football: Barton
-LA Times: Fautanu
-NFL.com: Mims
-ESPN: JPJ

Literally every mock draft has the Steelers taking someone different

 

[T1K]

According to some comments on reddit, a Denver-Pittsburgh deal that was being speculated on was #20 and #51 for #12 and Sutton. Using the Rich Hill chart, that would have Sutton's value at about 34.7, which is about the value of the #101 pick. I'm not super keen on trading up, but I think the value in that deal is definitely reasonable on paper.

I'd rather do #119 and a 2025 late round pick for Sutton, but I think that proposed Sutton deal actually makes sense if the Steelers are hellbent on getting Mitchell.

Although with that being said, PFF released their final mock draft today and it has the Steelers taking Mitchell at 20th overall and both Barton and Powers-Johnson outside of the 1st round.

PFF Analytics 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Seven quarterbacks go in the first round, including J.J. McCarthy to the Giants, Bo Nix to the Broncos | NFL Draft | PFF

What if we lived in a world where teams avoided analytically unsound decisions in the draft? Well, this is exactly what this mock aims to achieve, as it reflects how teams should approach their picks from an analytical point of view.

www.pff.com

That’s an interesting idea. I would have major concerns about what the Steelers plan is at o-line if that move was made. Assuming Nix is their QB target, trading back would make a lot of sense for them.

 

[Empoleon8771]

That’s an interesting idea. I would have major concerns about what the Steelers plan is at o-line if that move was made. Assuming Nix is their QB target, trading back would make a lot of sense for them.

I'd guess Van Pran at 84 and taking a RT for development at 98. Not crazy about that idea personally.

I think Mitchell probably goes before their pick, but I think it's close enough that they shouldn't need to trade all the way up to 12 to get him if they really want him. I'd rather do 20 and 98 for 16 and try to jump the Jaguars to take him.

That would actually end up a pretty good draft IMO:

• Trade 20 and 98 for 16
• Trade 119 and a late 2025 pick for Sutton
• Make these picks in the 2024 draft:
  • 16: Mitchell (CB)
  • 51: Frazier (C)
  • 84: Fisher (RT)

 

[Andy99]

Sutton turns 29 early in the season…zero interest in him…especially for a 4th round pick or higher

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not that the Bengals are going to trade Higgins in the division, of course they wouldn't, but an oversaturated WR market would likely drive down Sutton's price to acquire. But at that point, I think the Broncos would just hold onto him.

 

[OnMyOwn]

If you watched Sutton at all last season, he was really really good. I would welcome him if the pick is lower or we swap firsts or something.

 

[MrBrightside]

Their roster.

Maybe they think they are but they're pretty clearly not and I'm not going to cheer them on for ignoring reality.

I mean, what does this even mean? You want to be right about your rampant pessimism so badly you won't root for the team to be good in 2024? And what is the suggestion you're making? That they take a playoff team and sell it off for scraps?

What is it about Steelers and Penguins fans that make them like this? "If this team isn't a sure thing title contender this year we should tear it to the studs and sell everyone." It's just weird.

 

[Factorial]

Actually it seems like a ton of sources are dumping their last mock drafts today. Here's who some of the big ones have the Steelers taking:

-PFF: Mitchell (CB)
-The Athletic: Fuaga
-The Ringer: Mitchell (WR)
-Walter Football: Barton
-LA Times: Fautanu
-NFL.com: Mims
-ESPN: JPJ

Literally every mock draft has the Steelers taking someone different

Washington Post has Mitchell as well.

 

[Empoleon8771]

My final draft predictions:

1. The Steelers will take a C and CB with their 1st and 2nd rounders, depending on who falls to 20. Mitchell in round 1 and Frazier in round 2 is what they're hoping for, but Barton in round 1 and Melton in round 2 is the most likely outcome.
2. The Steelers use one of their 3rds to get a more developmental RT, not a year 1 starter (Fisher at 84 is one I really like).
3. The Steelers both trade for a WR (most likely Sutton but not necessarily him) and also use a 3rd or 4th on another WR

 

[Goalie_Bob]

According to some comments on reddit, a Denver-Pittsburgh deal that was being speculated on was #20 and #51 for #12 and Sutton. Using the Rich Hill chart, that would have Sutton's value at about 34.7, which is about the value of the #101 pick. I'm not super keen on trading up, but I think the value in that deal is definitely reasonable on paper.

I'd rather do #119 and a 2025 late round pick for Sutton, but I think that proposed Sutton deal actually makes sense if the Steelers are hellbent on getting Mitchell.

Although with that being said, PFF released their final mock draft today and it has the Steelers taking Mitchell at 20th overall and both Barton and Powers-Johnson outside of the 1st round.

PFF Analytics 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Seven quarterbacks go in the first round, including J.J. McCarthy to the Giants, Bo Nix to the Broncos | NFL Draft | PFF

What if we lived in a world where teams avoided analytically unsound decisions in the draft? Well, this is exactly what this mock aims to achieve, as it reflects how teams should approach their picks from an analytical point of view.

www.pff.com

This is based on pure analytics with zero trades. It’s completely unrealistic.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This is based on pure analytics with zero trades. It’s completely unrealistic.

Uh, okay?

Yes, 20 and 51 for 12 and Sutton is likely not going to happen. Based on the value, though, it's realistic in value. It has Sutton's value at an early 4th, which is the going rate for expensive WRs at this point.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Uh, okay?

Yes, 20 and 51 for 12 and Sutton is likely not going to happen. Based on the value, though, it's realistic in value. It has Sutton's value at an early 4th, which is the going rate for expensive WRs at this point.

I’m talking about the PFF mock.

 

[Ulf5]

This is based on pure analytics with zero trades. It’s completely unrealistic.

That trade is horrible imo. Moving up 8 spots and Sutton isnt worth losing the 2nd.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I’m talking about the PFF mock.

Ah makes sense.

I will say though that PFF isn't the only one that has Mitchell falling to 20 or later. He's currently ranked 12th but a lot of mocks have him in the 15-18 range, with a lot having him going to Jacksonville at 17. Quite a few mocks also have him lasting until 22 at the Eagles.

I wouldn't expect him to slip to 20, but it wouldn't be that crazy if he did.

 

[Peat]

The team made the playoffs last year with Pickett, Rudolph and Trubisky as QBs last year. They may not be a top "contender", but they're absolutely a playoff team and anyone can win in the playoffs.

The team made the playoffs through an insanely efficient record in close games vs the NFL's middle class but they got the hoop beat off them by everyone with real hopes and dreams.

The team has made improvements since then but still hasn't got a QB who's looked like a Super Bowl run guy in the last two years and all improvements on the offensive line will be coming from player improvement and hoping rookies can play better than veterans, albeit limited veterans.

If you think those circumstances makes for a win now team that can justify leaving value on the table because it might result in another ring, fair enough. I absolutely do not see that. I see a team that should be sure it gets good value on the pieces it needs as it needs to add a lot.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

If a 3rd would be some sort of unacceptable an overpayment for Sutton, I'd be just as content with doing their 4th for Sutton instead. The Browns paid picks #136 and #203 for Jeudy, which is about the value of #124. The Steelers 4th sits at #119, so that's pretty comparable in value.

I just have a really tough time giving a crap about whether pick #98 for Sutton is "too much" when we're talking about pick #98.



The team made the playoffs last year with Pickett, Rudolph and Trubisky as QBs last year. They may not be a top "contender", but they're absolutely a playoff team and anyone can win in the playoffs.

Their QBs are bad this year too, and most likely not as good as Rudolph. And they had a negative point differential.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

I mean, what does this even mean? You want to be right about your rampant pessimism so badly you won't root for the team to be good in 2024? And what is the suggestion you're making? That they take a playoff team and sell it off for scraps?

What is it about Steelers and Penguins fans that make them like this? "If this team isn't a sure thing title contender this year we should tear it to the studs and sell everyone." It's just weird.

I don't think he or anyone is suggesting that they sell off players, but the Steelers haven't drafted well or done a good job identifying and developing talent in recent years. They have 3 players they drafted before 2021. They aren't a step away from being a contender, they need to have a few more drafts like 2023 to have a chance. But signing a 36 year old QB who has been in steady decline for the past 5 years isn't a good start.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Ah makes sense.

I will say though that PFF isn't the only one that has Mitchell falling to 20 or later. He's currently ranked 12th but a lot of mocks have him in the 15-18 range, with a lot having him going to Jacksonville at 17. Quite a few mocks also have him lasting until 22 at the Eagles.

I wouldn't expect him to slip to 20, but it wouldn't be that crazy if he did.

I agree that Mitchell could drop to 20. I think he is in that 2nd group of guys that could go anywhere from 11-25.

I was just pointing out that using that particular mock to point to Mitchell falling is completely unrealistic. That mock is PFF grandstanding for only using analytics and that teams should never trade and should take the best player available at their pick. And then they break all that and take Spencer Rattler at 23.

 

[MrBrightside]

Happy LAST DAY OF MOCK DRAFTS for all those who celebrate.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Since the Harris pick, it’s been pretty easy to guess who the Steelers are targeting in the first round, and it looks like Mims is their guy this year.

I’m most confident they take a center with one of their first two picks though.

They have the two most sacked QBs in the league on their roster, no legit C, and one of the worst starting LTs in the league… so not targeting the o-line would be surprising as hell.