The perspective of RNH

[OvermanKingGainer]

I know u watched games cuz Jonny, how can u say his 2 way game is overrated? Or that he needs sheltering?

Well I mean he had the worst expected goal against (Score/Zone adjusted) numbers on the Oilers last year while playing with the highest Quality of Teammate:

2015-16

Player|Rel.xGA60|xGF.QoT|CF.QoT|ToI.QoT
Hopkins|+0.34|50.90|49.81|30.11
McDavid|+0.10| 46.75|48.63|29.89
Draisaitl|-0.04|48.60|48.45|30.87
Letestu|-0.21|47.37|48.04|28.14

Sure, he'll make a nice stick lift or takeaway now and then, but shift for shift he's not the shut down center he's billed as. He's closer to a Nathan MacKinnon or Sean Monahan defensively.

Player|Rel.xGA60|xGF.QoT|CF.QoT|ToI.QoT
Hopkins|+0.34|50.90|49.81|30.11
Monahan|+0.30|46.31 |48.00|31.63
MacKinnon|+0.34|42.63|43.64|31.70
Galchenyuk|+0.22|51.47|51.48|29.88
Barkov|+0.09|48.28|48.66|31.47
Scheifele|+0.03|49.58|51.85|31.64

And those players are a year or two years behind him developmentally.

 

[oStealthKiller*]

Well I mean he had the worst expected goal against (Score/Zone adjusted) numbers on the Oilers last year while playing with the highest Quality of Teammate:

2015-16

Player|Rel.xGA60|xGF.QoT|CF.QoT|ToI.QoT
Hopkins|+0.34|50.90|49.81|30.11
McDavid|+0.10| 46.75|48.63|29.89
Draisaitl|-0.04|48.60|48.45|30.87
Letestu|-0.21|47.37|48.04|28.14

Sure, he'll make a nice stick lift or takeaway now and then, but shift for shift he's not the shut down center he's billed as. He's closer to a Nathan MacKinnon or Sean Monahan defensively.

Player|Rel.xGA60|xGF.QoT|CF.QoT|ToI.QoT
Hopkins|+0.34|50.90|49.81|30.11
Barkov|+0.09|48.28|48.66|31.47
Monahan|+0.30|46.31 |48.00|31.63
MacKinnon|+0.34|42.63|43.64|31.70

And those players are a year or two years behind him developmentally.

You don't think the quality of competition has anything to do with it? Nuge will always be put up against first lines, therefore you'd expect his teammates numbers to suffer when they come on his line, as well as expecting him to have a good quality of linemates for this assignment.

To your second point, is not unanimously agreed the oilers are a really bad team? Worse then the teams those guys played for? It may be as simple as barkov having another line to go up against the other teams first so he only plays 70% of the time vs top match ups, and nuge 85% (numbers are hypothetical).


Additionally, what effect do you think the defence of each team have on the defensive side? Are these other teams not UNANIMOUSLY considered to have better defence, and better wingers in regards to defensive play?

Edit:
Also, mcd and other youngsters in nuge time have predominantly been giving ozone starts. This is possible because someone takes the dzone match ups. Zone starts matter

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

You don't think the quality of competition has anything to do with it?

Not as much as Quality of Teammate, since QoC is not easy for a coach to control and becomes very random shift-for-shift:

Player|Rel.xGA60|xGF.QoC|CF.QoC|ToI.QoC
Hopkins|+0.34|50.07 |50.32|29.88
McDavid|+0.10|50.05 |50.07|29.82
Draisaitl|-0.04|50.00|50.16 |29.79
Letestu|-0.21|49.61|49.98 |28.35

Only Letestu has any real advantage in the sense of easier quality of competition, and it's very slight.

Additionally, what effect do you think the defence of each team have on the defensive side?

Rel.Team stats are not influenced by the defense of each team, because they are comparisions between players on the same team.

Also, mcd and other youngsters in nuge time have predominantly been giving ozone starts. This is possible because someone takes the dzone match ups. Zone starts matter

The stats I posted are zone start adjusted.

 

[oStealthKiller*]

Not as much as Quality of Teammate, since QoC is not easy for a coach to control and becomes very random shift-for-shift:

Player|Rel.xGA60|xGF.QoC|CF.QoC|ToI.QoC
Hopkins|+0.34|50.07 |50.32|29.88
McDavid|+0.10|50.05 |50.07|29.82
Draisaitl|-0.04|50.00|50.16 |29.79
Letestu|-0.21|49.61|49.98 |28.35

Only Letestu has any real advantage in the sense of easier quality of competition, and it's very slight.



Rel.Team stats are not influenced by the defense of each team, because they are comparisions between players on the same team.



The stats I posted are zone start adjusted.

I respect the manner that you argue in, it is very well done. I can't say you have convinced me, but ur argument is well done and I can see how some people can come to that conclusion.

I won't try to argu any further, because I feel we differ when it comes to the eye test here. The numbers lead u to a conclusion, and for u the eye test confirms it, and for me the eye test does not prove the conclusion of the numbers.

Edit:
And to add, would those numbers happen to be taken ONLY when rnh is in the lineup? If not, then the Numbers may be diluted, in the sense that other ppl would have had taken on responsibilities that nuge normally would.

 

[McDavidbowie]

Injuries have held RNH back but when healthy he is as dynamic as a 1st overall should be. People forget about his rookie year where he didn't focus on defense. He was amazing offensively. But after his injury he focused on his 2-way game and now he is a reliable 2-way C.

I don't see why it's so hard for people to call him a low end 2-way #1c. That is exactly what he is. A poor man's Toews.

2 seasons ago the Pouliot-RNH-Eberle line was dominant. And he was a driver on that line. All 3 were injured last season.

If everyone can stay healthy (knock on wood) he will be in for a big year.

 

[Evincar]

The Oilers should run with 3 excellent lines and play all of McDavid, Draisati and Nugent-Hopkins as centres. That is crazy depth down the middle that should lead to 3 very dangerous lines like Pittsburgh had last season. And it takes pressure off of their 4th line to have to play big minutes.

I expect the Oilers to challenge for the top of the Western Conference as soon as this season. They have the potential to play with the some of the relentless speed and style of the N/A World Cup team.

Thats pretty unrealistic to expect a perennial 65-70 point team to jump to a 100-105 team. Heck most pundits were down on San Jose after missing the playoffs for the first time in 12 years and they only made a 9 point jump last season.

 

[Sky04]

This is a player who's effectiveness comes to fruition when he has skilled/top-end linemates, having Mackinnon, Drouin, Gaudreau being able to breakout or take pucks back and create a cycle after RNH battles the boards or picks a pocket is why his line looked so good. Put him with average players or soft guys and he doesn't get on the scoreboard.

He would be perfect as a #2C on a team with a deep top-6.

 

[Sky04]

Injuries have held RNH back but when healthy he is as dynamic as a 1st overall should be. People forget about his rookie year where he didn't focus on defense. He was amazing offensively. But after his injury he focused on his 2-way game and now he is a reliable 2-way C.

I don't see why it's so hard for people to call him a low end 2-way #1c. That is exactly what he is. A poor man's Toews.

2 seasons ago the Pouliot-RNH-Eberle line was dominant. And he was a driver on that line. All 3 were injured last season.

If everyone can stay healthy (knock on wood) he will be in for a big year.

Best suited as a #2C imo, he does ok as a #1 but it's too much weight on his shoulders.

He's a more effective NHL player now, but I thought he was far more dynamic in his rookie season, seems like a lot of his puck carrying confidence went away, perhaps from playing in the West.

 

[Johnnybegood13]

His overall game is better than McDavids.

 

[ujju2]

Always been a huge fan. It did seem like he got back his touch though. The injuries have been tough, but I think Nuge is back, and I couldn't be more excited. Always my favourite Oiler.

 

[RSeen]

I'm a fan. I wanted him before the Hall trade, because I thought he was a realistic option and due to being underrated.

 

[Asher]

He'll probably never be top 10 or even 20 in scoring which is something you'd hope for from a 1st overall, but he's good at what he does, which is play a smart, 200 ft. game.

I get the feeling he'll still be traded at some point because they want size down the middle and means Leon is considered the better long term solution at 2C. Absolutely ridiculous that Minny wanted RNH+ for Matt Dumba... that trade would have been even more lopsided than Hall for Larsson.

 

[Asher]

His overall game is better than McDavids.

McDavid is 19 years old and RNH is 23.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I was impressed with his defensive play. I haven't watched him too much in recent seasons but that really stood out in the tournament.

His defensive IQ and positioning actually reminded me of how Marner plays in London. Guys that don't need to be big and strong to make an impact defensively.

 

[VainGretzky]

Been explaining to people since I joined these boards that RNH sacraficed offence to be 1st man back . Nice to see people see him for what he is a responsible 2 way center.

 

[CanadienShark]

Admittedly I saw only one or two games of RNH this tournament, but my opinion of him hasn't changed. I mean that in a good way. I've long thought of him as a reliable, smart two way centre with a ton of skill.

 

[snipes]

Admittedly I saw only one or two games of RNH this tournament, but my opinion of him hasn't changed. I mean that in a good way. I've long thought of him as a reliable, smart two way centre with a ton of skill.

His hockey IQ and honest game are his best qualities. Nuge will sacrifice offence to be the first guy back on the back check.

He's cut his teeth in a tough Pacific conference. He's faced Thornton, Kopitar, Getzlaf, et al. since he was an 18 year old kid. Those years and the experience he's gained will benefit him going forward. He's still very young.

 

[Volica]

Young two-way centre in the making. He's going to be a decent 2C for a long time.

Sucks about where he was drafted in all honesty. If he was picked around 3-6; people would definitely be a lot higher on him. 50-60 point centres that can play both ends of the ice are a nice thing to have; especially with someone like McDavid playing in front of you.

To me he's going to have two sets of opinions on him always:
1) he's worse than he is, simply because he never will live up to a 1st overall pick (even though the best player in that draft was picked in the 4th round).
2) he's better than he is, simply because he was a 1st overall pick (To me, someone like Sean Monahan has surpassed Nuge already; but most people will fight tooth and nail on that opinion because one was picked at 1 versus 6).

He's a good player, will likely be run out of town in Edmonton in 5 years or less just because of what he represents; which is unfair, as I think he's a solid NHLer with some good upside.

 

[McFlyingV]

I have never been a fan but I think he'll end up being a solid #2C. People tend to overstate his career outlook and upside because he was drafted 1st overall.

He'll end up a solid #2C? He's already an elite #2C.

 

[snipes]

Chia seems really high on Nuge. Frankly, I'm glad it was Hall traded and not Nuge.

Nuge kills penalties, takes defensive match ups and puts the team first. He's about the team not himself. We're very happy with his World Cup, he'll form a deadly 3-headed monster with McDavid and Drai down the middle in the coming years.

He's not going to get run out of town, we know what he brings defensively for us. Hopefully he can add a bit of weight as he gets older, he'll be relied upon if we're going to turn this thing around.

 

[McFlyingV]

Chia seems really high on Nuge. Frankly, I'm glad it was Hall traded and not Nuge.

Nuge kills penalties, takes defensive match ups and puts the team first. He's about the team not himself. We're very happy with his World Cup, he'll form a deadly 3-headed monster with McDavid and Drai down the middle in the coming years.

He's not going to get run out of town, we know what he brings defensively for us. Hopefully he can add a bit of weight as he gets older, he'll be relied upon if we're going to turn this thing around.

If Hall had Nuge's brain/hockey IQ he would be among the elite of the elite in the league. I have a ton of time for Nuge because of how well he thinks the game. If he can ever get strong enough and be willing to compete like he did in the World Cup he will be an undisputed 2-way #1C. Only time will tell if he can improve enough on those things.

 

[Volica]

He'll end up a solid #2C? He's already an elite #2C.

I think of David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Kesler or Logan Couture type guys when I think of Elite #2C's.

He's not there yet. He might get there in the near future, but he's not there yet now.

 

[McFlyingV]

I think of David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Kesler or Logan Couture type guys when I think of Elite #2C's.

He's not there yet. He might get there in the near future, but he's not there yet now.

Depends on your outlook on how many #1C's there are I suppose. Bergeron is absolutely a #1C, and Krejci and Couture are borderline #1s. Kesler at this point I don't think is an elite #2 anymore, he was in Vancouver though.

Maybe I used the wrong word, Nuge is a high end #2C at this point imo.

 

[Battle Lin]

1st overall pick for a reason, he can play hockey, all he needed was to gain strength in his body...now that hes matured and has a few years under him, could see a break out year

 

[Aceboogie]

He's always been a good 2 way, defensively sound center. Good that people are seeing that