The Paul Maurice Pitchfork Thread (MOD Warning Post #1)

[pantherbot]

Defense has not been great. The team is giving up a pile of chances

That's just not true. 2.71 xga/60 is pretty average. Last year was 2.68 xga/60 so yeah, technically last year was ever so slightly better by that metric, but that's basically a rounding error....try again.

Also, not to take anything away from Bob who was fantastic, xGA and GSAx tracking has been a mess. Was listening to pdocast and private stats usually have lower (sometimes way lower) GSAx than what is shown in public data.

 

[vendetta]

That's just not true. 2.71 xga/60 is pretty average. Last year was 2.68 xga/60 so yeah, technically last year was ever so slightly better by that metric, but that's basically a rounding error....try again.

Also, not to take anything away from Bob who was fantastic, xGA and GSAx tracking has been a mess. Was listening to pdocast and private stats usually have lower (sometimes way lower) GSAx than what is shown in public data.

Just excuses as to why numbers last year were better. Reguardless of GSA numbers bob still leads that metric is playoffs. So irrelevant. Also u completely ignored pp and pk. Like I said nothing in any metric shouts out coaching having any sort of positive impact. It’s goaltending and finishing.

 

[5 Hole]

I’ve decided to give PoMo another year. He’s ok.

 

[Gentle Man]

That's just not true. 2.71 xga/60 is pretty average. Last year was 2.68 xga/60 so yeah, technically last year was ever so slightly better by that metric, but that's basically a rounding error....try again.

Also, not to take anything away from Bob who was fantastic, xGA and GSAx tracking has been a mess. Was listening to pdocast and private stats usually have lower (sometimes way lower) GSAx than what is shown in public data.

Yep. J fresh said the same. The maple leafs expected goals were half according to private models.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

Yep. J fresh said the same. The maple leafs expected goals were half according to private models.

Gonna be honest here, this is bullshit, too.

JFresh is a guy who quite literally makes a living by selling analytics bullshit to people who don't know any better (Substack, Patreon). When his dumb models are far off from reality and clearly producing gibberish, he comes up with these excuses because he doesn't want to get a real job.

You can't admit that your entire career is based on bullshit. That just isn't a smart move.

 

[Gentle Man]

Gonna be honest here, this is bullshit, too.

JFresh is a guy who quite literally makes a living by selling analytics bullshit to people who don't know any better (Substack, Patreon). When his dumb models are far off from reality and clearly producing gibberish, he comes up with these excuses because he doesn't want to get a real job.

You can't admit that your entire career is based on bullshit. That just isn't a smart move.

Well people are aware his are based on other data to begin with. All he does is compile. He references other sites.

I've always known private models are different. Sportslogiq is a famous one

 

[ScottyMascotty]

Yep. J fresh said the same. The maple leafs expected goals were half according to private models.

If I understood correctly, it's just Bob's GSAX was half according to private models. So he was outstanding, but it's not like the team was only bailed by him.

Gonna be honest here, this is bullshit, too.

JFresh is a guy who quite literally makes a living by selling analytics bullshit to people who don't know any better (Substack, Patreon). When his dumb models are far off from reality and clearly producing gibberish, he comes up with these excuses because he doesn't want to get a real job.

You can't admit that your entire career is based on bullshit. That just isn't a smart move.

I think some people are too harsh on public analytics, like it should be perfect to be useful (it shouldn't)

 

[vendetta]

Another series where maurice outcoached opposition and made great adjustments.

 

[pantherbot]

View attachment 712532
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Another series where maurice outcoached opposition and made great adjustments.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

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Another series where maurice outcoached opposition and made great adjustments.

So I'm just gonna say one thing, which is that these charts completely ignore the facts that:

1. Even people who make a living off of analytics think Carolina's xGF% numbers are grossly overinflated by shot volume, and

2. The Panthers turtled with a lead for long stretches of the series.

 

[vendetta]

So I'm just gonna say one thing, which is that these charts completely ignore the facts that:

1. Even people who make a living off of analytics think Carolina's xGF% numbers are grossly overinflated by shot volume, and

2. The Panthers turtled with a lead for long stretches of the series.

Perhaps. But they turtled because bob stood on his head when they were clearly outplayed until they got a lead. Fact is they were outplayed again for a vast majority of this series . That was clear as day. Except for overtime’s. But bob drug them . This is what happens in playoffs. Hot goalie and luck and anyone can win . That’s the beauty. But I’m Not gonna sit here and act like Maurice’s coaching is the difference.

 

[PSLguy]

Another series where maurice outcoached opposition and made great adjustments.

But I’m Not gonna sit here and act like Maurice’s coaching is the difference.

Hmm, posted about 2 1/2 hours apart.

 

[Gentle Man]

 

[Mogo]

Is it time yet?

 

[BeezKnees]

Maurice sucks.

 

[zeroG]

If I understood correctly, it's just Bob's GSAX was half according to private models. So he was outstanding, but it's not like the team was only bailed by him.


I think some people are too harsh on public analytics, like it should be perfect to be useful (it shouldn't)

speaking for myself, that's mostly in response to folks here leaning on them as if they were the absolute truth.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

C’mon Paul, serve me your finest crow. I will enjoy that crow.

 

[Gentle Man]

Terrific point by Weekes here about Bob and the team defense

 

[KW]

Terrific point by Weekes here about Bob and the team defense

When they talk about the sweep at the end, sort of like Rod talked about the sweep, that it “wasn’t a sweep”, I dislike that approach.

It WAS a sweep - everyone knows it was. What they should be saying is “this was the most competitive sweep I remember”, and then I could agree.

I also don’t agree with them when they say it not only wasn’t really a sweep (it was), but that it could have gone either way and CAR could have swept the Panthers, that’s how close it was. No. Not that far. Game 1 broke CAR. Game 1 loss would not have broken Panthers, because everyone was still expecting them to lose.

It was a sweep. It was deserved and earned. The end.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

Who cares what any dumb pundit has to say. They don’t have their respect. Ok. Even less to lose now.

 

[pantherbot]

When they talk about the sweep at the end, sort of like Rod talked about the sweep, that it “wasn’t a sweep”, I dislike that approach.

It WAS a sweep - everyone knows it was. What they should be saying is “this was the most competitive sweep I remember”, and then I could agree.

I also don’t agree with them when they say it not only wasn’t really a sweep (it was), but that it could have gone either way and CAR could have swept the Panthers, that’s how close it was. No. Not that far. Game 1 broke CAR. Game 1 loss would not have broken Panthers, because everyone was still expecting them to lose.

It was a sweep. It was deserved and earned. The end.

It was mainly just the old guy who sounded like an old guy....

Weekes had some great commentary about Maurice from when he played with him. One of the rare commentators that doesn't hate on the guy

 

[Gentle Man]

When they talk about the sweep at the end, sort of like Rod talked about the sweep, that it “wasn’t a sweep”, I dislike that approach.

It WAS a sweep - everyone knows it was. What they should be saying is “this was the most competitive sweep I remember”, and then I could agree.

I also don’t agree with them when they say it not only wasn’t really a sweep (it was), but that it could have gone either way and CAR could have swept the Panthers, that’s how close it was. No. Not that far. Game 1 broke CAR. Game 1 loss would not have broken Panthers, because everyone was still expecting them to lose.

It was a sweep. It was deserved and earned. The end.

I think the actual point is it didn't feel like a sweep. Usually when a team gets swept, the immediate thought is the team got handled. Just dominated.

The goal differential was 4. And it felt even closer than that because they essentially played 5 games plus. Two OT games (essentially a coin flip).


Just compare this sweep and our series last year against Tampa. THAT wasnt close at all. When you say sweep, I think of that. I get the sentiment.

It was mainly just the old guy who sounded like an old guy....

Weekes had some great commentary about Maurice from when he played with him. One of the rare commentators that doesn't hate on the guy

This was really my biggest takeaway out of everything.

Maybe the reason Bob struggled under Q/Bruno was because he had a hard time adjusting coming from a Torts team. It's 100% a fair point and not the first time I've heard it.

 

[pantherbot]

I think the actual point is it didn't feel like a sweep. Usually when a team gets swept, the immediate thought is the team got handled. Just dominated.

The goal differential was 4. And it felt even closer than that because they essentially played 5 games plus. Two OT games (essentially a coin flip).


Just compare this sweep and our series last year against Tampa. THAT wasnt close at all. When you say sweep, I think of that. I get the sentiment.


This was really my biggest takeaway out of everything.

Maybe the reason Bob struggled under Q/Bruno was because he had a hard time adjusting coming from a Torts team. It's 100% a fair point and not the first time I've heard it.

Definitely not the first time. Goalie analysts have said previously that Bob was a bad for our team even before he joined and that he worked closely with CBJ defense on what worked and what didn't.

 

[KW]

I think the actual point is it didn't feel like a sweep. Usually when a team gets swept, the immediate thought is the team got handled. Just dominated.

The goal differential was 4. And it felt even closer than that because they essentially played 5 games plus. Two OT games (essentially a coin flip).


Just compare this sweep and our series last year against Tampa. THAT wasnt close at all. When you say sweep, I think of that. I get the sentiment.


This was really my biggest takeaway out of everything.

Maybe the reason Bob struggled under Q/Bruno was because he had a hard time adjusting coming from a Torts team. It's 100% a fair point and not the first time I've heard it.

That was my point (I thought) about the sweep. It was close. About as close as it gets for a sweep.

But still a sweep. I’m only commenting on the fact that people in public situations like this old dude and the other old dude should carry some responsibility about what they say.

It’s annoying but I’ll live.

 

[pantherbot]

Really really good analysis on Bob and xga etc. from pdocast for anyone interested.

Didn't think about this but gsax is based on xga which includes shots that are blocked or missed. Obviously goalies can have an impact on shot selection and decisions, but that also means gsax is partly a team stat.

Also for those deserve to win meters and people pointing to xga etc., those things miss so much that, especially over a small sample like a 7 game series, it's hard to take at face value.

Doesn't take into account shooter talent, shot type, goalie angles, pre-shot movement, screens, etc. Carolina's xga was inflated by unscreened point shots by dmen and they just didn't have the talent to execute on the chances they had.

That's not too take anything away from Bob who was amazing and conn smyth front runner, just that the team in front was great too and it's not just Bob.