Line Combos: The Other Two Lines

[zeke]

So I think we all agree that we have 2 amazing lines.

1. Bunting-Matthews-Marner is simply one of the best lines in the league.
2. Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall is an excellent bottom-6 forechecking and checking line.

We probably don't want to touch these two lines.

But the other two lines are obviously works in progress, so what do we actually want to do here?

There's 5 guys that are locks for these two lines if healthy, IMO, and they are Tavares, Nylander, Kerfoot, Kase, Blackwell.

The good news is that no matter what the combo we pick, neither line looks 4th line quality - any 2 of these guys makes a line closer to at least 3rd line quality than 4th line.

So, if healthy, there's only one spot left for these guys to fight over: Spezza, Simmonds, Clifford, Robertson, Anderson, Seney, Steeves, Knies, Abbruzzese. I'll just lump these guys together and call them XXXXX.


so which line combos would be the best?

A. Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander + Blackwell-XXXXXX-Kase

Pros: Despite their scuffles, that Tavares line has been one of the most productive 2nd lines in the league this year. Blackwell-Kase should make a good line no matter who the center is.
Cons: That Tavares line has struggled for a while now, especially defensively. Center is the most important slot and we probably don't want to be relying on Spezza or Abbruzzese at center in the playoffs.

B. Nylander-Tavares-Kase/Blackwell + XXXXXXX-Kerfoot-Kase/Blackwell

Pros: there's a chance a more grindy type winger like Kase/Blackwell could make that 2nd line click. Kerfoot should be a plus as a bottom-6 C that doesn't face the toughs like Kampf does, and along with Kase/Blackwell that should be closer to a 3rd line quality line than 4th line quality.
Cons: no big cons. Tavares-Nylander may still not click tho.

C. XXXXXXX-Tavares-Nylander + Blackwell-Kerfoot-Kase

Pros: That Kerfoot line would likely be an above average 3rd line quality line. Even boderline 2nd line quality with 2 20gl capable wingers and all three well capable of 40-50pt type offense. One of the kids could finally click with Tavares-Nylander.
Cons: relying on a kid on the 2nd line is risky, especially when the other two aren't clicking right now.

D. Blackwell-Tavares-Kase + XXXXXX-Kerfoot-Nylander

Pros: Gives Tavares 2 plumber type wingers with some skill, more like he was used to in NY. Reunites the successful Kerfoot-Nylander combo, with lots of good options to replace Galchenyuk.
Cons: Neither is likely a top end 2nd line.




Follow-up question: Which player do you think is best suited to be XXXXXX?

Click to read more...

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Knies/Robertson-Kerfoot-Nylander
Blackwell-Tavares-Kase

I think Tavares needs two guys who can be all over the ice keeping plays alive and moving up ice, and Nylander needs high end skill in transition. It's tough to see the Leafs keeping Spezza and Simmonds out of the lineup, but neither of those guys have looked NHL caliber for a long time now

 

[Twine Tickler]

I completely agree, you cannot touch L1 and L3. Way too dynamic and way too consistent. We need to find the right formula for the other lines with the remaining players on roster.

To me, Matt Knies is the wildcard with our team. I don't think there is any possibility he does not sign an ELC at the end of the NCAA tournament with all the comments circulating lately. He is ready for the pro game, it's so painfully obvious at this point. I just don't think Robertson can be trusted to make an impact in the playoffs anywhere in the lineup quite yet. It's really nothing against him, but as much as he has brilliant moments, he also has far too many pedestrian shifts. Until he can iron that out consistently, we need to hold him out of the lineup. He really is only effective in a top-6 role at this point and he's just too inconsistent to pen into any playoff lineup. Love the player, he's going to be good for us in time. Just not now.

Back to Knies, I think Knies might be able to add value up and down that lineup, and in a dream scenario he may even be our answer to 2L LW. He's built for playoff hockey physically, and his style of play is exactly what we need. It will really all come down to his ability to adapt to the pace of the NHL, which I'll be honest could be a an issue. But how much worse off could he be with the pace of the game over Simmonds or Clifford? I really think his skill and physicality is exactly hat we need down the lineup. I'd start him there, and if he plays his way onto that second line I'd drop Kerf down to 4L C and move Blackwell to the 4L LW. But to me, Knies has to be given a look on that 4th line

To start playoffs:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Kerfoot - Tavares - Nylander
Micheyev - Kampf - Engvall
Knies - Blackwell - Kase


If Knies plays well, and that 2nd line continues to stay flat:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Knies - Tavares - Nylander
Micheyev - Kampf - Engvall
Blackwell - Kerfoot - Kase

HS: Spezz/Simmonds/Clifford

I know this will be a blow to Spezz and Simmer's ego's, but they'll get their shot eventually. Injuries occur, and new looks are always needed. But the truth of the matter is they haven't done enough to get into that lineup every game. We need pace and energy. Both of which they can provide but in small doses. I'd much rather Simmer check into game 4 when their guys are hurting and simmer is chompin' at the bit and looking for blood. I actually think Sheldon is already prepping them for this potential outcome. Spezz and Simmonds have both seen the press box a bit more frequently lately.

I know starting Knies is a major risk, but he is a major part of our future. Arguably our most important prospect. We need his style of play in the worst way imaginable. We also need to take risks against whoever we play IMO. We need something that can be our X-Factor, because as it stands we will be the underdog against every R1 matchup. I'd rather go down swinging, or at least first pitch swinging (game 1). Open up with Knies in the lineup and scale back if/when needed.

 

[zeke]

I completely agree, you cannot touch L1 and L3. Way too dynamic and way too consistent. We need to find the right formula for the other lines with the remaining players on roster.

To me, Matt Knies is the wildcard with our team. I don't think there is any possibility he does not sign an ELC at the end of the NCAA tournament with all the comments circulating lately. He is ready for the pro game, it's so painfully obvious at this point. I just don't think Robertson can be trusted to make an impact in the playoffs anywhere in the lineup quite yet. It's really nothing against him, but as much as he has brilliant moments, he also has far too many pedestrian shifts. Until he can iron that out consistently, we need to hold him out of the lineup. He really is only effective in a top-6 role at this point and he's just too inconsistent to pen into any playoff lineup. Love the player, he's going to be good for us in time. Just not now.

Back to Knies, I think Knies might be able to add value up and down that lineup, and in a dream scenario he may even be our answer to 2L LW. He's built for playoff hockey physically, and his style of play is exactly what we need. It will really all come down to his ability to adapt to the pace of the NHL, which I'll be honest could be a an issue. But how much worse off could he be with the pace of the game over Simmonds or Clifford? I really think his skill and physicality is exactly hat we need down the lineup. I'd start him there, and if he plays his way onto that second line I'd drop Kerf down to 4L C and move Blackwell to the 4L LW. But to me, Knies has to be given a look on that 4th line

To start playoffs:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Kerfoot - Tavares - Nylander
Micheyev - Kampf - Engvall
Knies - Blackwell - Kase


If Knies plays well, and that 2nd line continues to stay flat:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Knies - Tavares - Nylander
Micheyev - Kampf - Engvall
Blackwell - Kerfoot - Kase

HS: Spezz/Simmonds/Clifford

I know this will be a blow to Spezz and Simmer's ego's, but they'll get their shot eventually. Injuries occur, and new looks are always needed. But the truth of the matter is they haven't done enough to get into that lineup every game. We need pace and energy. Both of which they can provide but in small doses. I'd much rather Simmer check into game 4 when their guys are hurting and simmer is chompin' at the bit and looking for blood. I actually think Sheldon is already prepping them for this potential outcome. Spezz and Simmonds have both seen the press box a bit more frequently lately.

I know starting Knies is a major risk, but he is a major part of our future. Arguably our most important prospect. We need his style of play in the worst way imaginable. We also need to take risks against whoever we play IMO. We need something that can be our X-Factor, because as it stands we will be the underdog against every R1 matchup. I'd rather go down swinging, or at least first pitch swinging (game 1). Open up with Knies in the lineup and scale back if/when needed.

the only thing is that Blackwell hasn't actually played much C in the NHL.

 

[Bloomberg]

I think Kerfoot is the placeholder for Knies on that 2nd line. If Blackwell plays well, he might get a look on that 2nd line as well

 

[Twine Tickler]

the only thing is that Blackwell hasn't actually played much C in the NHL.

I thought he was acquired as a LW/C? I thought that was part of his value?

if he cannot be trusted to play C at the NHL level, you could easily do:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Blackwell - Tavares - Nylander
Micheyev - Kampf - Engvall
Knies - Kerfoot - Kase

 

[LeafChief]

I still think they should split Matthews - Marner. I know they are hot but seeing Marner get Tavares going was something. And we know Matthews/Nylander have great chemistry too.

I know it would be somewhat risky but I'd try it.

Really excited to see what the plan with Knies/Abruzzese is if/when they sign, too.

 

[zeke]

I thought he was acquired as a LW/C? I thought that was part of his value?

if he cannot be trusted to play C at the NHL level, you could easily do:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Blackwell - Tavares - Nylander
Micheyev - Kampf - Engvall
Knies - Kerfoot - Kase

Doesn't look like he actually plays C at this level.

but your lines here are one of the poll options. vote!

 

[Apex Predator]

I think you need to break up Tavares and Nylander but without touching the first and 3rd line you can’t do that. They’re stuck having Tavares and Nylander together and cycling through different people till you get the 3rd person on that line that works.

I would go with trying Blackwell on that line to see if he can give them the jump start they need.

 

[Sypher04]

I think you need to break up Tavares and Nylander but without touching the first and 3rd line you can’t do that

Why would say that? Ice time I assume?

 

[Clark4Ever]

Knies-Tavares-Nylander
Blackwell-Kerfoot-Kase

 

[zeke]

Knies-Tavares-Nylander
Blackwell-Kerfoot-Kase

the more I think about it the more I'm leaning towards it.

would give us four damn good lines I think.

 

[Ciao]

Kase-Tavares-Nylander
Blackwell-Kerfoot-Spezza

I would like to see Knies before thinking of where he plays. It would help if he were under contract as well.

Same for Abruzzese.

Simmonds is probably next up as an injury replacement for Kase, if needed.

Clifford should not step foot on the ice for the balance of this season and the playoffs.

I'm fine with Robertson or Anderson as fill-ins as well.

I don't watch the Marlies and I don't have enough of a reading on Seney or Steeves lately to know where they're at.

 

[Sypher04]

the more I think about it the more I'm leaning towards it.

would give us four damn good lines I think.

I don’t want to necessarily assume Knies can handle top 6 role right away, so I have him and Blackwell swapped for those easy mins. If he proves he can take that 2LW even better, but at least Blackwell has some history of meshing up in the lineup with high end NHL players. I think you definitely try Blackwell there first

 

[zeke]

I don’t want to necessarily assume he can handle top 6 role right away, so I have him and Blackwell swapped for those easy mins. If he proves he can take that 2LW even better, but at least Blackwell has some history of meshing high up the lineup with high end NHL players

Willing to give all of Knies Robertson Abbruzzese a look there tbh!

And then if all the kids flop than yeah we can always stick Blackwell or kase up there.

 

[Sypher04]

Willing to give all of Knies Robertson Abbruzzese a look there tbh!

And then if all the kids flop than yeah we can always stick Blackwell or kase up there.

Blackwell - Kerfoot - Kase is actually a ton of offensive and defensive ability to have on your 4th line. I could see that being a significant match up problem for several teams behind everything else we have.

 

[Folignos Helmet]

Willie played well with Kerfoot when JT went down last playoffs.
I would pair those two, and pair JT and Kase, and then experiment with the 3rd guy on those lines, depending on the opponent and need.

 

[Sypher04]

Willie played well with Kerfoot when JT went down last playoffs.
I would pair those two, and pair JT and Kase, and then experiment with the 3rd guy on those lines, depending on the opponent and need.

My concern splitting them is minutes. 1 and 3 are going to play a lot. Both Nylander and Tavares should be around 20 minutes each which would be hard to accomplish rolling them on separate lines. At least with Blackwell - Kerfoot - Kase as the 4th you can top up their minutes with PK time

 

[zeke]

My concern splitting them is minutes. 1 and 3 are going to play a lot. Both Nylander and Tavares should be around 20 minutes each which would be hard to accomplish rolling them on separate lines. At least with Blackwell - Kerfoot - Kase as the 4th you can top up their minutes with PK time

I hear ya, but nobody seems to be worrying about the Panthers' forwards minutes.

 

[therealkoho]

Blackwell F/O stats

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which leads me to believe his value will be found on the 3rd/4th line LW

The 1 line is pretty much sacrosanct the numbers are scary and they just might be the best line in the league so they stay intact unless broken up by injury or suspension!

the 2 line is pretty solid , and no matter the perception of certain players on ice foibles, it seems that no matter what, it just keeps on producing, why would anyone want to break that up? Keep it in mind that John Tavares is our best F/O man not to mention one of the leagues best with 631 wins in 1026 chances for a 61.5% avg so he isn't going on the wing!

Kerfoot.72ppg - JT.95ppg - Willie.94ppg

The 3rd line is not carved in stone but the combination has been money all year, I just wish these guys had better hands because they sure do create a lot of opportunities for themselves

of Mik .52ppg- Kampf .32ppg - Engvall .34ppg

and the 4th as a pure energy type of line

Blackwell - Spezza - Kase/Simmonds for a 4th

The wildcard in all this is if they sign Matthew Knies, I'm not against it for sure but the only real spot for him to play is 2LW. Which is going to change the 4th line radically, I'm still not sure you break up the 3 line unless it's to have Kerfoot centre it.

So if they sign Knies and shows that he can hack NHL playoff hockey

Bunts - Matty - MM

Knies - JT - Willie

Mik/Robbie - Kerf - Engvall/Kase this would be all kinds of dumb crazy stupid speed no matter the combo and produce an odd man rush almost every shift

Blackwell/Cliffy - Kampf - Kase/Spezz/Simmonds depending on your opponent you can ice a line that can score or a line that can beat you up

Reilly - Brodie
Muzz - Gio
Lube - Holl
Lilj - Sandin

 

[Sypher04]

I hear ya, but nobody seems to be worrying about the Panthers' forwards minutes.

Do they have all their guys really mixed up, or do they have a clear cut 4th line?

 

[ACC1224]

My concern splitting them is minutes. 1 and 3 are going to play a lot. Both Nylander and Tavares should be around 20 minutes each which would be hard to accomplish rolling them on separate lines. At least with Blackwell - Kerfoot - Kase as the 4th you can top up their minutes with PK time

Unless there are a ton of PP's do they ever play that many minutes?
Is there a way to know what they average so far this season?

Found it. They are both around 18 minutes a game.

 

[zeke]

Do they have all their guys really mixed up, or do they have a clear cut 4th line?

yeah true their 4th line wont get much run.

 

[Sypher04]

Unless there are a ton of PP's do they ever play that many minutes?
Is there a way to know what they average so far this season?

They both play about 18 mins per night. Tavares gets about 20 seconds more than Willy on average. Matthews and Marner both average a bit over 20. Would leave 22 mins for the 3rd and 4th combined.

 

[ACC1224]

They both play about 18 mins per might. Tavares gets about 20 seconds more than Willy on average

Think it's the other way around.