People are complaining that we almost gave away a 4-1 lead in like, 8 minutes to a team that’s tanking.
Post-Game Talk: The Oilers like to make things interesting
- Thread starter Cloned
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The funniest thing is that was by far the worst team the Oilers have probably played all year. Like Chicago didn't even have a pulse last night and we still gifted them 3+ goals and they got a money look to tie the game at the end (Kane from behind the net passes right into the center slot to a player who gets a clean shot off) that Skinner thankfully made a big save on, otherwise it's 5-5.
Cloned
Begging for Bega
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Cloned
Begging for Bega
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Fair points.
I just think that in the past, teams could sign veteran defensemen to play on the lower pairings without having to worry about the cap. These days teams are forced to play defensemen they probably aren’t 100% comfortable with due to the cap.
It's not like the Oilers have been collapsing with the lead all year, they've generally been pretty solid with the lead I think, it's just that they're usually losing by a goal or two. Much ado about nothing imo.
Blowing leads wasn't a problem last season either. I think Duncan Keith was somewhat underrated last season, but he doesn't make that much of a difference. The biggest issue right now is goaltending and depth scoring.
They were bad defensively last year and basically just abandoned playing D in the playoffs altogether (and hey it sorta worked).
But D is an issue, a massive issue. The Oilers right now allow more GA than any of the Dallas Eakins Oiler teams, any of the decade of darkness teams, they allow more GA than the team that tanked for McDavid even with McDavid (lol). You can't really tell me with a straight face that's OK.
09-10: 3.46 GA (Fall For Hall)
10-11: 3.28 GA (Hall/Eberle rookie year)
11-12: 2.914 GA (Renney fired)
12-13: 2.79 GA (lockout year Krueger)
13-14: 3.29 GA (Eakins Year 1)
14-15: 3.45 GA (McLottery Winner!)
15-16: 2.98 GA (McLellan Year 1)
16-17: 2.58 GA (2nd Round Of Playoffs)
17-18: 3.32 GA (Dissapointing Year)
18-19: 3.34 GA (Missed Playoffs 10InchCock Era Shortlived)
19-20: 3.05 (Tippett Year 1)
20-21: 2.75 GA (Canadian Division Year so big asterisk here)
21-22: 3.07 GA (Toilet Up And Down Year, Confernce Finals)
21-22 playoffs: 3.69 GA (Run N' Gun 80s Hockey for reference)
22-23: 3.56 GA
All I think is happened is they got used to playing balls to the wall offence in the playoffs and it worked to some reasonable degree, and they've basically just carried that into this year and also had some general laziness on top of that to start the season.
Also looking at the above Tom Renney really got done dirty by the Oilers. 2.9 GA sounds utterly magical right about now lol.
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If Campbell is playing .905 hockey (which is still worse than he's been for quite some time, but reasonable), that number probably comes down a lot. I agree with you that they are giving up too many goals, but I think that number will come down as the team gets healthier and Campbell returns to form. If they can get it around three, with a healthy Kane, they'd win the division. Keep outshooting teams like they have been for the last stretch of games, and the record will work itself out.
I think Campbell would say "well maybe it you guys defended worth a shit, I'd could hit .905" though, lol.
We just don't play defence well I think that's just all there is to it. We don't have the personel, we don't have the system, and without those two things you can't have a commitment to it.
I agree though at the very least, outshooting teams is a welcome returning development, that was something at least Tippett's teams did not do.
Took a pill in Sbisa
2showToffoliIwascool
Those numbers mean nothing without showing league-wide numbers. We all know scoring has been going up. There were 7 players that scored 40+ goals in 09-10. Last year 17 players hit that mark. I remember hearing that league average SV% is now around .900 when ot wasn't too long ago that it was .912 ish
I mean even behind the worst defence you have to do better than .875 if you're an NHL goalie. Right now he's letting in uncontested shots from above the circle on his glove side, you just can't do that. But I don't think that will continue.
We'll have to see what the numbers look like after 40 games, I doubt the defence is as bad as you think, it might be more of a problem than I think, but I'd like to see how the team does when healthy (-Kane) before making a definitive judgment on the defence.
It's not a matter of "thinking" it ... the D is just bad. The numbers just plainly show it.
Even 3 GA average per game is pretty bad ... that means you need to score 4 on average a night to win, and even with our big guns, that's a pretty big ask.
Sure, and if the Oilers were getting the goaltending that the Maple Leafs were getting (which happens to be Skinner's Sv%), they would be top ten in the league in goals against. And if Hockey-Reference is correct, the Leafs give up even more chances than the Oilers.
It's not like this team is giving up the most scoring chances in the league. If they're able to be in that middle group of teams in goals against, their offence will bring them to a top 10 finish, just like last year.
I don't have the list for chances against (though I think that's hard to quantify too), but just from the eye test ... this team does an awful lot of dumb things in their own zone and the forwards don't really even care to play D, lol.
So it sorta is what it is.
Like I haven't watched many Leafs games but from the few that I've watched I see a lot more defensive structure in their game.
Like yes Campbell has let in some shitty goals, but really there are not many games from this season where you can say "boy they played good defensively tonight but the goaltending screwed them over". They've played an honest night's worth of D like maybe 4/23 games maybe?
I think high danger chances are just shots taken from the "slot" right? The Oilers are basically around 10th last in all the chances against categories. That's not good enough, but it's not like they're dead last in the league by any defensive metric. If they keep trending the way they have been the last 5 games, those stats will continue to improve, and their GA number will depend on the goaltending improving. My point is just that I don't think the Oilers are giving up such an egregious number of chances that the goaltending shouldn't be better than it has been (obviously talking about Campbell here).
I just don't think the team is a lost cause defensively. And honestly they should be scoring more than they are too, based on the numbers I think this team has been quite unlucky so far (they're getting more scoring chances than last season and have a lower S%).
Honestly how many games this year would you say they've played a good game defensively as a team?
I honestly don't think aside from those two really bad shots that appeared to go through his glove that Campbell is allowing that many bad goals against, nor do I think that of Skinner the last few games where his save percentage has dropped.
He had no chance on most of the goals last night, maybe the first one he could stopped but it literally deflected in off the Blackhawks' players' ass (can't even make that up) after a poor defensive play by Hyman to not clear the zone.
I had a feeling we were going to find a way to f*** that game up after we had a run of dumb shifts to finish the second and were doing the Oiler thing of "wow so many chances but bad luck!" Can't emphasize how much I am tired of the "snake bit" and "bad luck" narratives. When being unable to cash on chances is a constant over two months it is no longer luck related.
At 4-1 I naively thought that the game was over, but I knew the moment the 4-2 goal went in that we were going to do our best to make it interesting. This team doesn't have any game in the bag until they have at least a two goal lead with under 10 seconds left (only because I believe it is nearly impossible to score a goal in under 5 seconds off a centre ice draw).
They don't have to be bad goals against, but other goalies make saves on great chances to score, and I don't think we've been getting much of that from Campbell all season. I can think of a few games that they probably deserved to win, and if they're 15-8 (or 13-8-2) instead of 13-10, do we really care how bad the defence has looked so far?
Skinner should've had the Domi PP goal, though I'm not blaming him for that, goals like that go in all the time. Basically my argument is that if Campbell plays up to the level that he's capable of, this isn't really a discussion we're having at all.
Campbell can play better (well he better for Holland's sake), but I think we do kinda underestimate that Mike Smith (when healthy) was probably the 3rd most important Oiler for a lot of games after the big 2. Has nothing to do with that leadership shit, I'm just talking performance/ability.
Smith while he had age related decline and was prone to giving up terrible unforced GA at times as part of his Jekyl/Hyde style, still when he was on top of his game was probably like a legit top 12 starter when he was in that zone.
He could bail the team out a bit more than I think Skinner or Campbell can, though Skinner is still basically a rookie and he can grow into that.
If we had like a 32 year old Mike Smith with Skinner as the back up, we'd be golden.
In the rare game this season where we have had multi goal leads in the 3rd we have nearly blown them or at least given the opposition life every time. Carolina game, Nashville game, Devils game and now this game all have the same theme. Only one I can think of where this wasn't the case was the game against the Penguins.
You know how other good teams go up a few goals and then slowly knock the time off the clock and seal the game away? We are just totally incapable of doing that.
Behind Enemy Lines
Registered User
I wanted Cossa. But was initially pissed when they passed on Wallstedt when he fell to them. A second sober thought after I recognized the Oilers will need cheap skilled quality support forwards to help salary drag in their winning window. The Oil had Skinner bubbling to battle for an NHL back-up role and regardless they were going to have to go shopping for a ready-now prime years goaltender.
Bourgault looks like a reasonable bet to becoming a top nine NHL forward and there is a need for a right wing with finishing skills on the big club. The time to have invested in a high pedigree goaltender was three to five years ago. A guy like Sampsonov when the Oilers had two first round picks in the McDavid draft might have been a good option.
Behind Enemy Lines
Registered User
Totally agree with your points. This team's overall defensive game can and should be much better in large part to help support a very average defense corp but also because goal suppression unlocks sustaining success. NHL system play is not some sort of magic elixir - apex players at this level have played within complex systems for much of their hockey careers. Key ingredients include hard work/high work rate; dogged determination; and discipline to operate within the system's structure it provides. Simple, quick and efficient decision making.
I think the jury's out on playing the Oilers. Play with a hard, aggressive forecheck and this defense corp will make poor decisions that turnover pucks. Find chronic soft ice areas in high danger areas of the ice with open up as the Oilers system play lags or breaks down between their d-corp and forward support. Attack the Oilers by starting on time and fight to get the first goal which gets them chasing the game which opens up further quality scoring opportunities as they will cheat the disciplined system play.
Hard for me to criticize the two super elites who too often feel they have to carry this team on their backs to succeed. I do see more high risk in Draisaitl's game and this year I fully think he is still bothered by the high ankle sprain injury. But when locked in with the diligence to prevent goals and much as they feel they need to chase goals to carry this team, both can be formidable own zone players when they lock into the system.
All said, I still believe the defense composition is too similar and overall talent level not good enough to be a stable backbone for this team. With poor, undisciplined forward support though it compounds the issue.
