This statement is just not true. The first game against Columbus this season Edmonton wins 3-1 because Dubnyk stole the game. The Oiler's were out shot 40-14, and heavily outplayed and out worked during the game. Without Dubnyk playing unreal they lose that game handily. There have been many games where Dubnyk has played well enough to steal a game only to have the team not capable of scoring goals to secure it.
Salary Cap: The Oilers and the cap
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This statement is just not true. The first game against Columbus this season Edmonton wins 3-1 because Dubnyk stole the game. The Oiler's were out shot 40-14, and heavily outplayed and out worked during the game. Without Dubnyk playing unreal they lose that game handily. There have been many games where Dubnyk has played well enough to steal a game only to have the team not capable of scoring goals to secure it.
So now Dubnyk's great play has been hampered by the defence and the forwards playing in front of him?
This is Dubnyk's make or break year. No complaints about the team in front of him.
If he proves he is a solid starter in this league then he will earn a new contract.
I'm with MacT. Dubnyk's play has to improve this year. If it doesn't find someone else next season.
Good thing my post said "many games" and not "all games."
I never stated that it was the team alone that was responsible for Dubnyk's play. I was simply commenting on the statement that Dubnyk is not a goaltender that can steal you games. However, with that said, if Dubnyk maintains his level of play this year, and the team in front of him plays better team defense, it would stand to reason that Dubnyk's stats would get better. No?
Let me clarify: Dubnyk is not perfect, he needs to work on rebound control, angles, confidence (when he's confident, he doesn't tend to drop early, when he's not, he goes down early and gets beat high), and his glove hand. But don't get me wrong, he doesn't need complete 100% overhauls in these areas, he just needs to show further progression by 5-10% in these areas. Slight improvements in these areas would move him from average to above-average goalie to an above-average to really good goalie.
We don't need an elite goalie to win with the offense we should have up front. We just need a solid goalie who is capable of stopping the puck consistently. If Dubnyk improves by another 5-10% this year, he proves he is that goalie, at least IMO.
The complete disregard for Dubnyk's ridonkulous performances in many games this year blows my mind. The guy single handedly guided this team to victory on multiple occasions.
Stuff like that goes unnoticed when the team can't finish outside the bottom-10. Yet we spend all day gushing about the future escapades of our "elite core" - they've done nothing.
Stuff like that goes unnoticed when the team can't finish outside the bottom-10. Yet we spend all day gushing about the future escapades of our "elite core" - they've done nothing.
I agree. The problem is when the team doesn't finish above top ten, the fans need someone to pin the blame on. While the "elite" core hasn't done anything yet, the fans won't blame them because they are the "future," young, shinny, and expected to keep improving.
Funny thing is, Dubnyk isn't that old, and should also be improving as the years go by and he earns more playing time in more situations (similar to the core). Yet, because he's not the shinny choice, he gets most of the blame, rather than support to keep improving.
bone
5-14-6-1
Those hoping for a small salary on Schultz can kiss that goodbye with Bogosian's contract handed out today. Same age, Bogosian has more years experience, but only one season out of 5 with better scoring (30 vs. 27) albeit with 18 more games played. If Schultz can improve a little defensively this year and put up about a .45-.50 PPG pace, he'll be commanding 5+.
Bogo's deal also bought 5 UFA years. If Shultz signs a 7 year deal, it will only buy 3 UFA years - Sort of like Mcdonaugh at 4M with 3 UFA years bought.
bone
5-14-6-1
Ah yes. I looked only at age, forgot to consider him starting at 18 like Gags. Still likely spells trouble for Schultz' contract.
If you look at the team's "make or break" stretch run, you will see that it was indeed the skaters who **** the bed and blew any chance at a playoff spot. We're talking 8 out of 10 games down the stretch where the team scored either 0 or 1 goal (up until the final two games once the team was well out of it). We hear all about every mistake or poor performance Dubnyk has, but for some reason people like to ignore the fact that the scorers (other than Yakupov) basically failed in crunch time.
People want to talk about "deflating", think about a goalie going into a game knowing that he practically needs a shutout just to salvage a point. Or think about that fact that the team was bottom 5 in both shots for and shots against, while the goalie was close to top 10 in SV% among starters, and yet the goalie somehow gets the blame.
Bogosian is also 6' 3 215 lbs and plays WAY more physical than J Schultz. He is a different type of defensman (two way like McDonagh not a PMD like Schultz) who has played 4 years in the league.
Who mentioned "all games"? Not me.
His stats will not necessarily improve by a huge amount. Depending on the value place in different stats it could be considered that his stats declined given an improved D and the same level of play from Dubnyk. His GAA in 2012-13 was an atrocious 23rd overall. He was a decent 12th in SV PCT. If the Oilers defence improves it is reasonable to expect his GAA to improve to 20th. The save percentage may actually decline.
The save percentage is a quirky stat. Hard to replicate and based on some minor differences. An improved defence could lead to his facing fewer shots. Say an improved defence clears the odd puck that last year's team couldn't. If they clear one extra puck a week over the season that prevent shots, Dubnyk's save percentage drops one point to .919 and from 12th overall to 14th.
That is for one fewer shot 20 times in a 48 game season.
The consensus is the 2013-14 D corps is improved. What if they cut down on just one shot a night. Dubnyk's level of play is the same, so most of those goals go in. Save for a smaller number due to improved defensive play. How about 7 fewer goals. One a month is a reasonable guess. That improves his GAA to 2.47 from 23rd to 20th.
With the improved D his stats show slight improvement. If he can cut down on mental errors he has a chance to make a quantum leap. This year it is completely up to him. He is playing in front of the best defensive corps he has ever had in front of him.
All of my projections are reasonable outcomes if Dubnyk doesn't improve his play, or fall off, significantly. If he doesn't make the jump this year it's time for everyone to move on.
Delicious Pancakes
Top Pocket Find
I rolled my eyes when I saw that. Compare his numbers to those of this year's UFA crop and it makes more sense. Luckily the Oilers UFAs will only be Jones, Smyth, Brown, N. Schultz, Belov, Grebeshkov, Potter, Dubnyk and Labarbara. The only guy in there likely to get paid is Dubnyk, with Belov a bit of a wild-card. Half of those guys the team might just flush after this year anyways.
RNH, Schultz, and Petry are RFA's and aren't comparable, and I believe only Petry has arbitration rights. His situation will be like Gagner's next summer where he has a lot of leverage because he could choose to go to arbitration, take the 1 year deal then be a UFA in the summer of 2015.
Mr Forever
The Oilers :(
No Oiler forward will make more than Hall. If they warrant it, we should be happy.
Oiltankjob Fail
Registered User
- Feb 10, 2013
- 6,686
- 0
Dubnyk's personal performance is up to him, I agree: better focus, better angles, etc., these are all aspects that Dubnyk has 100% control over, and if he can improve on these aspects of his game himself and the Oiler's will both benefit.
IMO, improved defense is not necessarily reflected in the number of shots a goaltender faces in a game or over the course of a season; improved defense is reflected in the quality of the shots faced during a game or over the course of the season. A goaltender facing 35 shots from the red line will more than likely have better stats than a goalie facing 25 shots from the slot. Unfortunately, there is no reliable way to predict the affect an improved defense has over the quality of shots faced per game, thus no real predictive measure that can be used to determine the affect this has on a goaltenders stats (if there is a way that I am unaware of, please feel free to point me in the right direction).
How are you calculating Dubnyk's save percentage in your example? Are you adjusting shots against and GA's based on fewer shots on some sort of factor, or are you assuming every shot prevented would have been a save had it not been prevented? Lets see:
Shots Faced (Less 20): 1112
GA (unadjusted): 90
Saves Made: 1112-90 = 1022
Projected Save percentage: 1022/1112 = .919
Seems as if you used the latter assumption. It does not seem reasonable to punish Dubnyk for facing less shots during a season. While a .919 save percentage could qualify as reasonable, using subjectively altered stats to express your view only weakens its position, not furthers it. Case in point (very extreme example):
Shots Faced (Less 20): 1112
GA (Less 20): 70
Saves Made: 1112-70 = 1042
Projected Save percentage: 1042/1112 = .937
With the assumption all 20 shots prevented would have been goals otherwise, Dubnyk's save percentage is now 2nd best in the league (I'm guessing his GAA is also pretty high up there as well). Seems unreasonable doesn't it? A possible reasonable approach might be to use Dubnyk's current save percentage against the decreased shots; therefore, on 20 shots Dubnyk would have made 18 saves and allowed 2 goals. The analysis would look like this:
Shots Faced (Less 20): 1112
GA (Less 2): 88
Saves Made: 1112-88 = 1024
Projected Save percentage: 1024/1112 = .921
This results in a slight improvement, and does not take into account the quality of the remaining 1112 shots. For presentation sake, lets combine this with your GAA analysis of 7 fewer goals over the course of the season (the additional 5 we could say being attributed to the quality of shot factor):
Shots Faced (Less 20): 1112
GA (Less 7): 83
Saves Made: 1112-83 = 1029
Projected Save percentage: 1029/1112 = .925
This save percentage would be 7th overall in the league. the GAA of 2.47 moves Dubnyk from 26 to 23, but if we remove backup goaltenders (I'm suggesting 5: Bernier, Emry, Khudobin, Allen, Vokoun), that puts Dubnyk at 18th overall for starting goaltenders (the merits behind including or not including backup goaltenders, and which goaltenders are backup goaltenders is up for debate). I would argue that an improved defense, and consistent play from Dubnyk, improves his stats (at least league rank wise) considerably. Would that not be worth $4.75 on a long term contract? I think it would be. If the defense is improved, and Dubnyk improves the areas of his game that are 100% under his control by even 5%, I would be willing to argue that the above increase in stats would be the minimum increase we would see on the season.
Everything above not withstanding, if there is a decrease in his play and his statistics, then I agree fully that the Oiler's should explore other options. Until then, unless a clearly better option slaps them in the face, I am willing to bet on Dubnyk improving again next season with a better team in front of him.
That only applies if all of those rebound shots would have been saves in the previous season, or at least if Dubnyk's SV% on those 2nd shots is higher than his overall .920. If his SV% on those 2nd shots that are now prevented was lower than .920, his SV% would actually end up going up slightly, all else being equal. And since we're talking about rebound opportunities that are basically in prime scoring position, chances are those are shots that would naturally have a higher shooting % than an average shot.
Also, as a completely unrelated side note, we should put to bed the refrain that the number of shots against isn't an accurate reflection of the team's defensive performance because of potential quality of shot differences. There are teams out there that are adept at keeping teams to the outside and forcing lots of low quality shots - but the 12/13 Oilers were not one of those teams. The Oilers gave up plenty of shots and plenty of high quality scoring chances.
What is a stat line you would see as improvement?
If he performs as well as people think he can, than a real jump in his performance would be:
35+ wins/2.35 GAA/.925 Save Pct
Maybe even a little more focus in the shootout.
6 GAA on 11 shots , really?
He has the D in front of him to get there. I hope he does it.
My line in the sands:
1.) Save Percentage: between .920 and .925. I am honestly fine with Dubnyk matching this years save percentage of .920, especially if he begins seeing lower shot totals.
2.) GAA: At least a 2.45. A .12 jump is more than any season in recent years, and still represents a decreased GA's of 8 goals if he plays 65 games.
3.) Games Played: 60-65 games played. Dubnyk has never played more than 48 games in a season. This is the first season he is defacto #1 (regardless of claims in prior seasons, the way he was played suggests he was never the #1 go to guy unless NK was hurt), JL does not have the game to step in like NK could do (although very infrequently). If he can play the additional games and still post good numbers, that a pretty significant sign of improvement in my opinion.
4.) Wins: At least 35 wins. Over 65 games, that's a winning percentage of 53.8%, another positive sign in the right direction.
He is still only 27 years old. He is not old, and I'm not sure if he has entered his prime yet. This shows enough improvement to warrant a long-term contract, and even if he doesn't improve beyond this, some of the stats will improve just by the team maturing and becoming a better overall team. Besides, I still believe this team can be successful with a good to really good goaltender, and they do not need to have an elite goaltender to win if the team matures close to potential. Though I won't complain if they manage to acquire an elite goalie at a slight overpay, or if Dubnyk becomes one.
Really? You think adding Andrew Ference makes this team's defense THAT much better huh?
He definitely still has a bottom-10 defense sitting in front of him. The same can't be said for the "elite" goaltenders around the league - Lundqvist, Anderson, Quick, Rinne, Smith, and Luongo all have great blue lines sitting in front of them. Bobrovsky's one guy who did it without one but he won the Vezina. Go figure huh?
2014-2015
Toying with CapGeek, I've generated a frame-work for the Oilers' 2014-2015 cap:
1) RNH given $5.5M extension
2) Justin Schultz given $4.5M on a 3-year "show me" deal
3) Jeff Petry signed to $3.75M/yr extension
4) Ryan Jones retained at $1.5M
5) Oscar Klefbom makes the team
6) Dubnyk given $4M extension
7) LaBarbera re-signs at $1M
8) Lander extended 1yr $1M
With the way the CBA changes the method the salary cap is calculated starting in 2014-2015, it's actually believed that the Salary Cap will fall in 2014-2015
Source
The Oilers are in a precarious situation here.
1) There is a rich 2014 UFA crop full of useful pieces for the Oilers. Joe Thornton, Jay Bouwmeester, Dion Phaneuf, Dany Heatley, David Legwand, Ryan Callahan, Alex Steen, and Nik Kulemin are all guys that can play key roles for the Oilers heading forward.
2) Newly extended/acquired guys like Smid, Gagner, Ference and Perron are nice temporary fixes - but the general opinion on here is that these aren't guys to "take us over the hump". We may need to consider moving 2-3 of these guys to fit some of the aforementioned UFA's. I see a redundancy with Ference/Smid on the left side - I'd love to see one of Bouwmeester/Phaneuf sign for 5-6M. Wouldn't mind seeing Smid being moved to accomodate it.
3) Nail Yakupov will need an extension. Whether it's given in Summer 2014 or 2015 is up to Mac-T, but it's going to have an impact on what they do in Summer 2014 regardless. The Oilers don't have any major cap commitments falling off the grid in 2015, so you can't bank on someone leaving to make room for Nail.
Toying with CapGeek, I've generated a frame-work for the Oilers' 2014-2015 cap:
1) RNH given $5.5M extension
2) Justin Schultz given $4.5M on a 3-year "show me" deal
3) Jeff Petry signed to $3.75M/yr extension
4) Ryan Jones retained at $1.5M
5) Oscar Klefbom makes the team
6) Dubnyk given $4M extension
7) LaBarbera re-signs at $1M
8) Lander extended 1yr $1M
With the way the CBA changes the method the salary cap is calculated starting in 2014-2015, it's actually believed that the Salary Cap will fall in 2014-2015
Source
The Oilers are in a precarious situation here.
1) There is a rich 2014 UFA crop full of useful pieces for the Oilers. Joe Thornton, Jay Bouwmeester, Dion Phaneuf, Dany Heatley, David Legwand, Ryan Callahan, Alex Steen, and Nik Kulemin are all guys that can play key roles for the Oilers heading forward.
2) Newly extended/acquired guys like Smid, Gagner, Ference and Perron are nice temporary fixes - but the general opinion on here is that these aren't guys to "take us over the hump". We may need to consider moving 2-3 of these guys to fit some of the aforementioned UFA's. I see a redundancy with Ference/Smid on the left side - I'd love to see one of Bouwmeester/Phaneuf sign for 5-6M. Wouldn't mind seeing Smid being moved to accomodate it.
3) Nail Yakupov will need an extension. Whether it's given in Summer 2014 or 2015 is up to Mac-T, but it's going to have an impact on what they do in Summer 2014 regardless. The Oilers don't have any major cap commitments falling off the grid in 2015, so you can't bank on someone leaving to make room for Nail.
Fourier
Registered User
The salary cap cannot fall. The CBA has set $64.3M as a minimum.
Mirtles numbers reflect what I have said before in that this year's cap may be artificially high so there can be some growth without the cap going on.
Since that article was written there have been a number of positive signs on the revenue front. So it is possible, perhaps even likely that there will be a modest increase in the salary cap next year. What I do not see happening is the jump to $70M that some have suggested.
2014-2015 is probably the crunch time. It would not surprise me at all to see a $3-4M increase in the cap between 2014-2015 and 2015-2016. That should be close to enough for Yakupov. But I think you are right that for a couple of years they could be tight.
Centers like Joe Thornton are more than likely re-signed before free agency next off season. In the off chance he is not, he will want to be with a contender (I believe he would want to sign with an established cup contender, Oilers don't fit that criteria). Barring some major disconnect, Ryan Callahan will remain with the Rangers. Legwand will be turning 34 next year, and he us not a fit for the Oilers and vice versa, unless he comes cheap and is willing to play on the third line wing (Gagner is more than likely still the second line center).
Our top six is more than likely fairly set for the next 3 seasons, depending on the play of the top 6 this season. Even then, I don't believe any of the 4 kids are traded, and Gagner most likely stays unless there is a can't miss offer from another team. Unless we run three scoring lines, I don't foresee the Oilers chasing after any big name forwards unless there is a massive power forward available. If the Oilers end up chasing big time forwards, that likely means the space is coming from a movement of a current top six forward. The focus is more than likely on the bottom six next off season, and fixing it up should be reasonably affordable (more so than a top six forward). Marcel Goc, Brian Boyle, Trevor Lewis , Daniel Winnik, Steve Downie, and Nikolai Kulemin will all be more likely targets IMO (they also have a better chance of reaching free agency).
According to your source, the cap will be higher than this coming seasons cap by 2015-2016, and will continue to rise during each of the following years. Cap space for the 2014-2015 season can be achieved by signing RNH, Schultz, and then Yakupov to more affordable 2-3 year bridge contracts rather than massive long term deals (Yakupov might be harder to sell here, simply because I see him playing at a higher level each year). You plan on paying them anyway, so you are not losing anything by signing bridge contracts to work around the short term lower cap. Even if you don't sign bridge contracts, I outlined in an earlier post a scenario where you could resign everyone and still be under the $64.3M cap, and by then the cap starts to escalate. Nurse could be ready to replace a more expensive defensemen to obtain the space to resign Yakupov by then.
The article also points to the fact that the league grew significantly each year during the last CBA; with the new TV deal coming, additional outdoor games, and the possibility for an additional 2 team expansion (its obvious the NHL is moving for this, and is dependant on how quickly cities like Seattle, Quebec, etc. can facilitate an NHL franchise), and the sport growing/re-kindling in US markets all suggest that this trend will likely continue during this CBA. I'm not saying there will be massive spikes in the cap (although every year during the last CBA the cap increases always exceeded even lofty predictions), but the likihood is that it should go up every year. The cap is manageable, and free agency won't be the only method for building the team in the future. I honestly don't believe the cap will pose that great an issue moving forward.
Oiltankjob Fail
Registered User
- Feb 10, 2013
- 6,686
- 0
Only problem is Schultz could and probably will eclipse 50 points this season , and his whole salary dynamics will change.
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