Salary Cap: The Oilers and the cap

[Valic]

Know what gets people payed everyone? Points.

Guess how many defencemen had more points than Schultz last year? Eleven.

Five had more than 2 points more than Schultz. He's gonna get a cap hit over 4 million unless he craters. If its a long term deal its going to be up in the 5's if not higher.

If its a short 2-3 year deal it'll be in the 4's.

 

[Sloth Slothersons*]

Know what gets people payed everyone? Points.

Guess how many defencemen had more points than Schultz last year? Eleven.

Five had more than 2 points more than Schultz. He's gonna get a cap hit over 4 million unless he craters. If its a long term deal its going to be up in the 5's if not higher.

If its a short 2-3 year deal it'll be in the 4's.

You better stop typing before Schultz or his agent sees this

 

[Kirby]

If Petry signs a richer AAV deal than Smid I'll eat my hat.

I agree, but just wanted to put out there that even if he signs for slightly more, we should still have no problem keeping our core players for years to come.

PK Subban is going to be getting like $8.5 mill on his next extension, book it.

$6 million is not going to be the going rate for elite d-men in the future, $6 mill will be a reasonable price.

Also the Leafs could make the playoffs again, which is another potential spike in revenue and will certainly drive the price of the hockey TV rights value in Canada up.

I'd be happy to pay RNH and Schultz both 6 million/8 year extensions. It means they'll have had good seasons. Also if you lock players in while they're younger they tend to be less amenable to not having NTCs/NMCs, as they're not even eligible for their initial years anyway.

Subban is not getting $8.5 AAV on his next extension. Subban Comparables:

Letang: $7.25M AAV
Weber: $7.857 AAV
Karlson: $6.5M AAV
Doughty: $7M AAV

I have a hard time seeing Subban and his agents selling Montreal on an AAV greater than 8. More then likely he falls within the range of comparables, regardless of the cap at the time.

As for Schultz, he doesn't get 6 unless he plays lights out. Voynov and Shattenkirk seem like very good comparables, with the chance of earning slightly more based on higher point totals.

 

[smackdaddy]

I agree, but just wanted to put out there that even if he signs for slightly more, we should still have no problem keeping our core players for years to come.



Subban is not getting $8.5 AAV on his next extension. Subban Comparables:

Letang: $7.25M AAV
Weber: $7.857 AAV
Karlson: $6.5M AAV
Doughty: $7M AAV

I have a hard time seeing Subban and his agents selling Montreal on an AAV greater than 8. More then likely he falls within the range of comparables, regardless of the cap at the time.

As for Schultz, he doesn't get 6 unless he plays lights out. Voynov and Shattenkirk seem like very good comparables, with the chance of earning slightly more based on higher point totals.

I didn't know you can use salary comparables from years ago

 

[shoop]

This is what I see for the 2014-2015 Season:

Forwards

Hall ($6M) - RNH ($6M) - Eberle ($6M)
Perron ($3.8125M) - Gagner ($4.8M) - Yakupov ($925K)
Blank ($2M?) - Gordon ($3M) - Blank ($2M?)
Joensuu ($950K) - Lander ($1M) - Blank ($1.5M?)
Blank ($950K?)
Blank ($950K?)

Defense

Smid ($3.5M) - Petry ($3.75M)
Ference ($3.25M) - J. Schultz ($4.5M)
Klefbom ($925K) - Larsen ($1.2M)
Marincin ($690K)

Goaltender

Dubnyk ($4.75M)
Blank ($1.25M?)

Dubnyk at $4.75M?

What sort of season do you see him having to end up with that number?

The team would have to be a playoff team with a large portion of the credit for making that jump going to Dubnyk. Short of serious talk of Dubnyk making the all-star team, I don't see any other way he gets signed to a new contract of that kind.

What makes you think he is ready to improve so much this season?

There are 13 goalies that have an aav of 4.75M+ in the league right now.

They are: Rinne, Quick, Luongo, Ward, Miller, Lehtnonen, Rask, Fleury, Price, Howard, Lundqvist, Brodeur, Bobrovsky, Hiller.

Are you really saying that Dubnyk's level of play is comparable with any of them?

Brodeur is at the end of his career and Luongo has a ridiculous contract are two examples of weak arguments for somehow placing Dubnyk among the elite of the league.

He hasn't played like an elite goalie and doesn't deserve to be paid like one.

 

[Valic]

Dubnyk at $4.75M?

What sort of season do you see him having to end up with that number?

The team would have to be a playoff team with a large portion of the credit for making that jump going to Dubnyk. Short of serious talk of Dubnyk making the all-star team, I don't see any other way he gets signed to a new contract of that kind.

What makes you think he is ready to improve so much this season?

There are 13 goalies that have an aav of 4.75M+ in the league right now.

They are: Rinne, Quick, Luongo, Ward, Miller, Lehtnonen, Rask, Fleury, Price, Howard, Lundqvist, Brodeur, Bobrovsky, Hiller.

Are you really saying that Dubnyk's level of play is comparable with any of them?

Brodeur is at the end of his career and Luongo has a ridiculous contract are two examples of weak arguments for somehow placing Dubnyk among the elite of the league.

He hasn't played like an elite goalie and doesn't deserve to be paid like one.

Compare his sv % over the last 2 years to those guys. A good agents gonna argue his GAA is based on his poor team and his SV% is what should count. If he improves at all this year $4 million isn't out of the question.

 

[The Nuge]

If Petry signs a richer AAV deal than Smid I'll eat my hat.

Why wouldn't he? He's our top dman and been making peanuts

 

[shoop]

Compare his sv % over the last 2 years to those guys. A good agents gonna argue his GAA is based on his poor team and his SV% is what should count. If he improves at all this year $4 million isn't out of the question.

His agent can argue that all he wants. The team is improved so performance this year will be the key.

Big difference between $4M and $4.75M.

There's a big if about his improvement. He'll definitely be given the opportunity. Hope he gets there.

 

[Kirby]

I didn't know you can use salary comparables from years ago

Ignoring the fact that Karlsson, Weber, and Letang's deals have all been signed in the past 12 months (seems pretty recent, but I will leave that be), how else do you establish market for RFA players? Seems rational to use comparable players, and seeing as most comparable players have been signed to long term deals already, it would seem rational that those deals would be the basis for discussion. It also helps that those deals were signed in a similar or better cap environment that Subban will be signing in, making them to use as comparables regardless of being signed 1-2 seasons before hand.

Subban's best years are still not as good as either Webber or Karlsson's best years, so unless Subban comes out next season and outperforms them and their best seasons, Subban and his agents will have to rely on what the market has set (older deals signed by comparable players) in negotiations.

 

[Cloned]

Know what gets people payed everyone? Points.

Guess how many defencemen had more points than Schultz last year? Eleven.

Five had more than 2 points more than Schultz. He's gonna get a cap hit over 4 million unless he craters. If its a long term deal its going to be up in the 5's if not higher.

If its a short 2-3 year deal it'll be in the 4's.

Fowler has had similar production (good offense, poor plus minus) and signed a 5 year deal to UFA worth 4 million.

If the Oilers want to get Schultz signed to UFA I think they can get similar value - if they want to sign him for some UFA years they will probably have to boost to somewhere closer to 5, but I don't think they will have to go above 5.

 

[Kirby]

Dubnyk at $4.75M?

What sort of season do you see him having to end up with that number?

The team would have to be a playoff team with a large portion of the credit for making that jump going to Dubnyk. Short of serious talk of Dubnyk making the all-star team, I don't see any other way he gets signed to a new contract of that kind.

What makes you think he is ready to improve so much this season?

There are 13 goalies that have an aav of 4.75M+ in the league right now.

They are: Rinne, Quick, Luongo, Ward, Miller, Lehtnonen, Rask, Fleury, Price, Howard, Lundqvist, Brodeur, Bobrovsky, Hiller.

Are you really saying that Dubnyk's level of play is comparable with any of them?

Brodeur is at the end of his career and Luongo has a ridiculous contract are two examples of weak arguments for somehow placing Dubnyk among the elite of the league.

He hasn't played like an elite goalie and doesn't deserve to be paid like one.

I'll try to respond to as many points as possible.

Elite Goaltender: I believe we have a different opinion when it comes to this term, as I believe elite quantifies top 5 goaltenders in the league, not top 13 (14, or basically half the starting goalies in the league by including Dubnyk). Goalies 15-5 are good or above average goaltenders, and these type of goaltenders apparently get paid a minimum of $4.75M AAV.

Goalies making above $4.75 AAV: Lethnonen, Ward, Price, Howard (and possibly Hiller) would all be comparable to Dubnyk, where as in my opinion Dubnyk is "at least" as good as these goaltenders. By association, Dubnyk would then be worth at least $4.75M AAV, not withstanding a severe regression in play (I won't argue specifics, I'll just argue he belongs, even if last in the group of $4.75M AAV goalies).

Dubnyk's Play & Playoffs: Dubnyk has posted good numbers this past season. On top of that, his GAA has consistently gotten better year after year, and his save percentage has more or less done the same. This is all with crappy teams. If the team in front of him improves, there is good reason to believe Dubnyk's numbers would also improve, even if he stands still development wise. That would push him higher (statistically) in the top 15 goalies in the league. As for his play being the main reason for making the playoffs, O highly disagree. The Oiler's as a team need to improve to make the playoffs, not just Dubnyk. In other words, Dubnyk's play needs to be good enough to not prevent the team from making the playoffs, not be the biggest factor for making it. His stats suggest this is possible with the team in front of him playing better.

Unless Dubnyk's play declines this year, he will be requiring a raise to be resigned. Will it be $4.75M AAV? I am not sure, as I just threw the number out there to show that the team could sign its core players for $6M AAV each and not have to trade them away; however, Dubnyk getting at least (or at most) $4.75M AAV would not surprise me at all.

 

[McShogun99]

Dubnyk at 3.75 is already overpaid. I doubt he takes less but if he has a good year he'll probably be resigned in the 4.25 range.

 

[aleshemsky83]

Dubnyk at 3.75 is already overpaid. I doubt he takes less but if he has a good year he'll probably be resigned in the 4.25 range.

He had a top 10 save percentage among starters, how bad do you think he was?

 

[The Nuge]

Dubnyk at 3.75 is already overpaid. I doubt he takes less but if he has a good year he'll probably be resigned in the 4.25 range.

I disagree. Seeing what goalies have been getting this year has made me start to think Dubnyk is pretty damn good value

 

[Valic]

Fowler has had similar production (good offense, poor plus minus) and signed a 5 year deal to UFA worth 4 million.

If the Oilers want to get Schultz signed to UFA I think they can get similar value - if they want to sign him for some UFA years they will probably have to boost to somewhere closer to 5, but I don't think they will have to go above 5.

Fowler had 11 points last season. Schultz 27.

In a full season the year previous Fowler put up 25. Still less than Schultz did in the shortened season.

Unless Schultz regresses he will get substantially more than Fowler did.

EDIT Of course if he wants to play hardball. Hopefully he accepts in the Fowler range.

 

[Mr Forever]

He had a top 10 save percentage among starters, how bad do you think he was?

Yeah well, lets not forget, he's that one goalie allows weak goals. Surely that will be a conversation starter during contract negotiations.

 

[skorf]

Originally Posted by shoop View Post
Dubnyk at $4.75M?

What sort of season do you see him having to end up with that number?

The team would have to be a playoff team with a large portion of the credit for making that jump going to Dubnyk. Short of serious talk of Dubnyk making the all-star team, I don't see any other way he gets signed to a new contract of that kind.

What makes you think he is ready to improve so much this season?

There are 13 goalies that have an aav of 4.75M+ in the league right now.

They are: Rinne, Quick, Luongo, Ward, Miller, Lehtnonen, Rask, Fleury, Price, Howard, Lundqvist, Brodeur, Bobrovsky, Hiller.

Are you really saying that Dubnyk's level of play is comparable with any of them?

Brodeur is at the end of his career and Luongo has a ridiculous contract are two examples of weak arguments for somehow placing Dubnyk among the elite of the league.

He hasn't played like an elite goalie and doesn't deserve to be paid like one.

Mike Smith just signed for 5.6 million a year... Dubnyk is just as good as him. Dubs will want at least that much.

As for your list... Ward, Miller, Fleury have been fairly average lately. Even Price too.

Lehtonen is fairly comparable to Dubnyk too... and he makes 5.9 million.

We are looking at least 5 mil right now... likely closer to 5.5 mil

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Save% doesn't tell the whole story. If it did, Craig Anderson would be the greatest goalie of all time and James Reimer would be a better goalie than Ryan Miller. You have to look at how he gets the high save percentage: it's because his rebound control is awful and the puck always goes back to the opposition for another shot on net ~10 seconds later. Sure most of those end up as easy saves, and only a few extra go in every year, that still amounts to 3/4 points in the standings. Dubnyk's terrible rebound control is one of the main reasons our even strength shots ratio is so terrible. Dubnyk relies on his size to bail him out since his positioning/angle control are flawed. He also tends to be very inconsistent *cough*San Jose*cough*. He's actually a passable starting goaltender, but since our team lacks any true top pairing dmen, passable isn't going to cut it. We need above average if not elite goaltending. Passing on Cory Schneider for Dubnyk is just one of many terrible picks of the Kevin Prendergast era.

 

[aleshemsky83]

Yeah well, lets not forget, he's that one goalie allows weak goals. Surely that will be a conversation starter during contract negotiations.

He does but he's not overpaid at 3.5 which is the actual number.

 

[Hemsky4PM]

Let Dubnyk go to UFA unless he shows he's an elite goalie this year.

Here's management 101: What is the market for the player in question? What is the supply of replacement players available?

Notable UFA goaltenders in 2014:

Henrik Lundquist
Jonas Hiller
Ryan Miller
Jaroslav Halak
Brian Elliot
Devan Dubnyk

Teams without a signed starter for 2014:

St. Louis (although they have signed J. Allen)
Anaheim (although they have Viktor Fasth for 3.4M next year)
Edmonton
Calgary (although they have K. Ramo signed for 2.9M)
New York Rangers (likely to re-sign Lundquist)
New York Islanders
Florida
Tampa Bay (who will give Bishop a chance to show he's a starter)
Buffalo
Pittsburgh (if Fleury is terrible again)

Realistically, Lundquist will stay with the NYR. If Anaheim pays Hiller market price, that's will be 5.5-6M plus 3.6M on goaltending - 9-10M on goalies - which might mean Fasth is available for trade. St. Louis may keep one of Halak or Elliot to pair with Allen moving forward.

Washington might be willing to move Holtby or Neuvirth depending on the way their season goes. Toronto might move Reimer if Bernier emerges as starter.

So, not including trade options, the Oilers will compete with the NYI, Florida, Buffalo, Tampa and Calgary for a starting goalie. I think the Oilers can easily keep Dubnyk for say 4 years at 4M per season. I don't see where the pressure is to offer that much more. I think Hiller and Miller will get the big money next summer. Halak, Dubnyk and Elliot will get second tier money unless they have break-out years. Florida and Tampa do not have reputations for spending big dollars - although the Isles might go hard for Hiller or Miller as they move to the Barclay's Center in a couple of years.

I hope Dubnyk gets the Oilers to the playoffs next season. If he does with a .915 svp and 2.50 GAA, with 40 wins, sure, lock him up for 5M per season on a 5+ year deal.

I don't think there is major pressure to do so though.

What gives the Oilers poor leverage is that Olivier Roy, Bunz, and other goalie prospects have not progressed much - we have no hope on the horizon. I do think the Oilers should be careful about term with Dubnyk if he only has an "ok" year. 3 years at 4M would be the max I would go. It's possible you can trade for an equivalent goalie (or sign a guy like Elliot) for half that amount.

 

[skorf]

Let Dubnyk go to UFA unless he shows he's an elite goalie this year.

Here's management 101: What is the market for the player in question? What is the supply of replacement players available?

Notable UFA goaltenders in 2014:

Henrik Lundquist
Jonas Hiller
Ryan Miller
Jaroslav Halak
Brian Elliot
Devan Dubnyk

Teams without a signed starter for 2014:

St. Louis (although they have signed J. Allen)
Anaheim (although they have Viktor Fasth for 3.4M next year)
Edmonton
Calgary (although they have K. Ramo signed for 2.9M)
New York Rangers (likely to re-sign Lundquist)
New York Islanders
Florida
Tampa Bay (who will give Bishop a chance to show he's a starter)
Buffalo
Pittsburgh (if Fleury is terrible again)

Realistically, Lundquist will stay with the NYR. If Anaheim pays Hiller market price, that's will be 5.5-6M plus 3.6M on goaltending - 9-10M on goalies - which might mean Fasth is available for trade. St. Louis may keep one of Halak or Elliot to pair with Allen moving forward.

Washington might be willing to move Holtby or Neuvirth depending on the way their season goes. Toronto might move Reimer if Bernier emerges as starter.

So, not including trade options, the Oilers will compete with the NYI, Florida, Buffalo, Tampa and Calgary for a starting goalie. I think the Oilers can easily keep Dubnyk for say 4 years at 4M per season. I don't see where the pressure is to offer that much more. I think Hiller and Miller will get the big money next summer. Halak, Dubnyk and Elliot will get second tier money unless they have break-out years. Florida and Tampa do not have reputations for spending big dollars - although the Isles might go hard for Hiller or Miller as they move to the Barclay's Center in a couple of years.

I hope Dubnyk gets the Oilers to the playoffs next season. If he does with a .915 svp and 2.50 GAA, with 40 wins, sure, lock him up for 5M per season on a 5+ year deal.

I don't think there is major pressure to do so though.

What gives the Oilers poor leverage is that Olivier Roy, Bunz, and other goalie prospects have not progressed much - we have no hope on the horizon. I do think the Oilers should be careful about term with Dubnyk if he only has an "ok" year. 3 years at 4M would be the max I would go. It's possible you can trade for an equivalent goalie (or sign a guy like Elliot) for half that amount.

Like you said Lundquist will resign with the rangers.

That leaves Hiller, Miller, Halak, Elliot, Dubnyk for St. Louis, Anahiem, Edmonton, Calgary, Islanders, Florida, Tampa, Buffalo...

5 goalies for 8 teams... Demand>>Supply which means $$$$ for the free agents

-St. Louis I would bet tries to sign one of Halak/Elliot
-Anahiem if Fasth plays well, they may let hiller walk but they'd sign a decent backup still
-Edmonton we would have to sign one of them, Hiller is the best and really i'd probably rather have dubnyk then the rest (miller hasn't been the same since his concussion)
-Calgary, I can't see Ramo being the answer so they'll need one
-Islanders, will need a goalie
-Florida, may go with Markstrom
-Tampa, depends on Bishop, but they do spend so if bishop fails they could sign one
-Buffalo, will need a goalie

So best case scenario... st. louis, edmonton, calgary, islanders, buffalo are after a goalie next year (5 goalies, 5 teams) and that's the best case.

And like was said earlier, Pittsburgh could pursue one. Also Backstrom is 35 and I could see Minnesota pursuing one, Vancouver may depending on the Loungo situation, Pavelec has been below average in Winnipeg and they may try to upgrade, Varmalov is a RFA in Colorado if he struggles they could be in the market for one as well

And last comment about trades for Reimer and Neuvirth... are they really upgrades over Dubnyk?

 

[Hemsky4PM]

Like you said Lundquist will resign with the rangers.

That leaves Hiller, Miller, Halak, Elliot, Dubnyk for St. Louis, Anahiem, Edmonton, Calgary, Islanders, Florida, Tampa, Buffalo...

5 goalies for 8 teams... Demand>>Supply which means $$$$ for the free agents

-St. Louis I would bet tries to sign one of Halak/Elliot
-Anahiem if Fasth plays well, they may let hiller walk but they'd sign a decent backup still
-Edmonton we would have to sign one of them, Hiller is the best and really i'd probably rather have dubnyk then the rest (miller hasn't been the same since his concussion)
-Calgary, I can't see Ramo being the answer so they'll need one
-Islanders, will need a goalie
-Florida, may go with Markstrom
-Tampa, depends on Bishop, but they do spend so if bishop fails they could sign one
-Buffalo, will need a goalie

So best case scenario... st. louis, edmonton, calgary, islanders, buffalo are after a goalie next year (5 goalies, 5 teams) and that's the best case.

And like was said earlier, Pittsburgh could pursue one. Also Backstrom is 35 and I could see Minnesota pursuing one, Vancouver may depending on the Loungo situation, Pavelec has been below average in Winnipeg and they may try to upgrade, Varmalov is a RFA in Colorado if he struggles they could be in the market for one as well

And last comment about trades for Reimer and Neuvirth... are they really upgrades over Dubnyk?

Reasonable points. I would say Reimer is on par with Dubnyk. Point is, you might be able to bring in an equivalent goalie for shorter term and less money. I am just pointing out that there are options and Dubnyk doesn't hold that many cards. IMO, if Niemi is getting 4M, Dubnyk deserves no more than that. Another factor is salary, even if there are 8 teams looking to sign a goalie, they don't all spend the same amounts. I don't see any teams out-bidding the Oilers for DD. I think the Oilers need to be prudent with this contract. Short-term, like 3 years, and 4ish M cap hit. Hell, take a run at Hiller if you want to upgrade the position, just don't give DD a 5 year deal over 5M per.

 

[MuzzaFuzza]

I think the Oilers will be fine cap-space wise next season, assuming the cap goes up to 70 million:

Capspace: $37,762,500
Resigings:
Nuge 6 years, 6 mil
Schultz 5 years, 4.5 mil
Petry 3 years, 3.25 mil
Dubnyk 2 years, 4 mil

After resignings: $20,012,500

Hall - Nuge - Eberle
Perron - Gagner - Yakupov
A - Gordon - B
Jonesuu - C - D
Hamilton

Smid - Schultz
Ference - Petry
Klefbom - F
Marincin

Dubnyk
Bachman

A: Internal Options: Jones FA's: Kulemin, Steen, Greening.
B: FA's: Downie, Moss,
C: Lander, Acton? FA's: Goc, Mclement, Fiddler
D: Brown, Eager? FA's: Thornton, Ashaam
F: Belov, Larsen, Grebeshkov FA's: Klesla, Greene, Emelin, Fayne

I think we should be fine, maybe a little tight, and especially the year after with Yak's extension. And obviously not all of the FA's are feasible, just giving some general names.

 

[Connor McOilers]

Yeah well, lets not forget, he's that one goalie allows weak goals. Surely that will be a conversation starter during contract negotiations.

One day I dream that people on here will realize that it's the number of goals he lets in that matters, not how it happens. If a softie now and then is enough to completely deflate the team then they're too mentally weak to ever win anything anyways.

If Dubnyk plays the same or slightly better this season 4.0 wouldn't be unreasonable at all (Could make a strong argument that he would deserve more with even slight statistical improvements), goaltenders that can start the majority of the games at the level he did last season don't just grow on trees now.

 

[Ragss]

The way I see it, Dubes isn't a goalie who steals games for the team and that sets him below the elite in the league.