The little too early expansion draft thread

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I saw an article reminding me of the 7-3-1 split among players (or 8 and a goalie, which leaves even more open) I presume we will go the former route, and also that NTC contracts are similar to last time, meaning we have to protect Benn, Segs, Pavs and Rads. Also, Bishop. Based on the 2 AHL/NHL years experience rule, we get to protect only Kiviranta IIRC.

So, who are the extra 3 forwards we protect?

Which of our big 4 D get protected? Hate to lose any of John K, Steven J, Esa L or Miro H (who will have his second year of NHL experience by then.

And, to make it more TDL relevant, do we make any deals with an eye towards the draft a year from now?

Click to read more...

 

[M88K]

Nmc you have to protect ntc you don't.
Pavs doesn't have an NMC the final year so he's excluded.

 

[serp]

Pavelski doesn't have to be protected because of no NMC in his last year and he likely won't be and probably won't be picked by Seattle either ( i doubt they want a close to 37 year old costing 7 million ) .

Its actually pretty simple in the current setup.

Benn , Seguin , Rads , Roope , Dickie , Guri , Faksa as forwards ( everybody else noticeable is still exempt including JRob ) , Miro , Esa and Klinger on Defense ( Johns is upcoming UFA that season so i doubt he'd get picked ) and as goalie you take Bishop ( Oettinger is exempt ) .

Pretty much nobody worth losing your sleep over will have to be exposed by the Stars.

 

[serp]

Seattle Expansion Draft Simulator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Here's the expansion draft tool from Capfriedly. Stars are really simple right now .

Stars still sort of need an goaltender to expose at the expansion draft . I would guess they re-sign Bow to a two year deal this offseason for that .

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

In the same vein as the needing a goalie like Bow; you'll have to expose 2 forwards and a defenseman under contract who will have played 40 games next year and/or 70 games between this year and next. We don't currently have anyone else under contract aside from the big name guys mentioned. So, the Stars might have to sign some depth guys to 2 year deals or re-sign current role players with the intent of exposing them.

 

[BigG44]

The goalie doesn't have to be under contract. He only has to be a qualified RFA so Point or Bow would both qualify.

At forward, there's probably not going to be an issue. Dowling (signing and extension during next season), L'Esperance (signs a 2 year contract this summer), or Caamano (signs a 1 year deal prior to expansion draft) very likely could account for the 2 forwards. Now if Robertson, Kiviranta, Dellandrea or Gardner take a regular spot, that could make it more difficult for 2 of those 3 to hit 40 games next season.

D could be a little more difficult. You may have to acquire a guy who fits those parameters ... some other teams 6 or 7 ... and that wouldn't be that expensive likely. That's probably better considering ideally you're going to hold up the 6th spot for a young guy like Harley or someone in the AHL.

 

[BigG44]

Pavelski is obviously going to be 1 of the 2 forwards. I can't believe I forgot him. They're only going to need 1 other forward.

Speaking of Pavelski, I was looking at contracts last night, and Dallas did some really interesting things. I had not previously paid attention to the Pavelski breakdown, and his highest salary is Year 1 and Year 3. That's pretty uncommon for an older player. They clearly did it to be a deterrent for him to be selected in the expansion draft. He's due $8 million that last season. The other thing this accomplished since that year is pure salary, they protected themselves by making that contract pretty affordable as a buyout option should the contract turnout to be bad.

It seems pretty obvious that Lindell, Klingberg, and Heiskanen are locks for the 3 defender spots. Johns is an UFA. You might lose him in free agency anyway, but since he's you're asset, there's nothing stopping you from discussing a contract extension with him before the expansion draft. That way, if he did get selected, he and his agent already know what they have available in Dallas. They may choose to sign with Seattle or test the market, but that was true regardless of the expansion draft.

What is really interesting though is Lindell's contract. Again, like Pavelski, for some reason I just never looked at the breakdown. Dallas did try and create a deterrent in Lindell's contract as well. I don't think that means they planned on leaving him exposed. I think when they signed the contract and even today, the plan is 100% to protect him. However, I do think they structured the contract in a way ($7 million and $6 million due in 21-22 and 22-23) in case they did add a different defender they would prefer to protect.

 

[WhoahNow]

Stars should be pretty well protected:
G:
Bishop has NMC so needs to be protected, Oettinger is exempt so really just need to re-sign Bow or Point so they can be exposed. I'm guessing Khudobin gets re-signed for 1 year so he would be UFA at the time, or maybe Stars give him two years and he's the goalie exposed.

D: Heiskanen, Klingberg, Lindell easy protects. Oleksiak and Johns are UFA so thats risky for an expansion franchise to draft a UFA and risk losing them for nothing, if they not picked Stars can re-sign them. Harley exempt. Johns defenitely seems like the most talented player from current roster of Stars that could be picked.

F: Seguin, Benn, Radulov have NMC so need to be protected. Hintz, Gurianov easy protects which leaves 2 spots for Dickinson & Faksa unless someone more valuable is brought in in the meantime. Pavelski would be exposed but as previously mentioned unsure of how attractive that would be for an expansion franchise unless they want leadership and help getting to the cap floor. Robertson, Dellandrea, Diamani exempt and could be on the roster after the draft.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

As I read the above, I have to believe signing Dobby and exposing him would be the player Seattle takes. Obviously, I don't know what other goalies will be on the list, but he would be a strong backbone. Jamie O and Johns would be the next two, if they avoid the UFA tag when selecting.

TBH, considering long term and short, and knowing Dobby will probably get a better offer somewhere anyway, basically, we are bringing up Otter a year earlier than we imagined. Or, I guess they could sign some one as a stop gap. Better than losing Johns, who could be a mainstay for a long time.

I hope the math in the posts above is correct in all respects. We knew the Vegas draft was designed to be painful and actually give up some good players, and the rules haven't changed much. Of course, our opinions may change quite a bit between now and the expansion draft, depending on team and individual success.

 

[BfantZ]

Pavelski is obviously going to be 1 of the 2 forwards. I can't believe I forgot him. They're only going to need 1 other forward.

Speaking of Pavelski, I was looking at contracts last night, and Dallas did some really interesting things. I had not previously paid attention to the Pavelski breakdown, and his highest salary is Year 1 and Year 3. That's pretty uncommon for an older player. They clearly did it to be a deterrent for him to be selected in the expansion draft. He's due $8 million that last season. The other thing this accomplished since that year is pure salary, they protected themselves by making that contract pretty affordable as a buyout option should the contract turnout to be bad.

It seems pretty obvious that Lindell, Klingberg, and Heiskanen are locks for the 3 defender spots. Johns is an UFA. You might lose him in free agency anyway, but since he's you're asset, there's nothing stopping you from discussing a contract extension with him before the expansion draft. That way, if he did get selected, he and his agent already know what they have available in Dallas. They may choose to sign with Seattle or test the market, but that was true regardless of the expansion draft.

What is really interesting though is Lindell's contract. Again, like Pavelski, for some reason I just never looked at the breakdown. Dallas did try and create a deterrent in Lindell's contract as well. I don't think that means they planned on leaving him exposed. I think when they signed the contract and even today, the plan is 100% to protect him. However, I do think they structured the contract in a way ($7 million and $6 million due in 21-22 and 22-23) in case they did add a different defender they would prefer to protect.

So what happens if the only unprotected players are all ufa’s?

 

[LT]

So what happens if the only unprotected players are all ufa’s?

They just have to pick one. Sucks for Seattle.

 

[BfantZ]

They just have to pick one. Sucks for Seattle.

If that’s the case , that seems like a no brainer to negotiate with Johns and Jamie but not sign them until free agency .

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

???

That's definitely not the case; if you don't satisfy a minimum requirement of the draft, it's Dallas that's gonna get penalized, not Seattle.

You can't just break rules set out by the NHL

 

[serp]

They just have to pick one. Sucks for Seattle.

That not how that works unfortunately. There needs to be at least two forwards , one defense and one goalie who is under contract for at least the 21-22 season exposed. Those forwards and defenseman also need to have a certain numbers of games played in the previous season. ( 40 or more in 20-21 or 70 or more in 19-20 and 20-21 combined )

Pavelski will certainly meet that requirement on forward . So thats one . Second one will likely be someone like Caamano .

On defense ? Stars have to sign somebody or re-sign Oleksiak to expose in the expansion draft.

Goalie is easy. Just re-sign Point or Bow and you are good to go.

 

[LT]

That not how that works unfortunately. There needs to be at least two forwards , one defense and one goalie who is under contract for at least the 21-22 season exposed. Those forwards and defenseman also need to have a certain numbers of games played in the previous season. ( 40 or more in 20-21 or 70 or more in 19-20 and 20-21 combined )

Pavelski will certainly meet that requirement on forward . So thats one . Second one will likely be someone like Caamano .

On defense ? Stars have to sign somebody or re-sign Oleksiak to expose in the expansion draft.

Goalie is easy. Just re-sign Point or Bow and you are good to go.

I don’t know why but I totally blanked on the “under contract” part.

But it’s easy to see us keeping Dowling and Fedun (or similar players), and if they play enough, we’re good to go (with them and Pavelski).

As of now it looks like they’ll either have to take a UFA or someone who doesn’t mean much to us.

 

[BigG44]

The only position that doesn't have to be under contract is goalie. The exception being that the goalie must be a RFA who received a QO.

 

[BigG44]

Personally ... know that there is a high chance a guy like Khudobin would be taken, I'd give him a 2 year deal this summer. I know the popular opinion is he's going to get blown away, but look at the need for goalie. The top teams don't need them, and the ones that do are bottom feeders. Plus, if someone was looking for a starter, they'd probably pursue Lehner first in free agency, and we know NY is likely going to unload a goalie as well, probably this summer. The market is always very hot and cold for goalies, and this doesn't look like a great summer to be looking for a job.

If Shapiro is correct, and he's been saying it for a few weeks including today, Khudobin is more concerned about winning. He'd be happier in a situation where he's a 1B and winning than an outright starter on a long shot. The majority of the 1B type goalies make around $2.5 to $3.5 million on 2 to 3 year deals. The most recent is the best comparable to Khudobin.

Carter Hutton signed a 3 year deal worth $2.75 million a year. His stats, age, etc. are all relatively similar to Khudobin. Front load the contract which most players love, and make him even more attractive to the expansion team. If they take him, great ... if they don't Oettinger doesn't require waivers that season, and while I think Dallas can be over-patient with skaters, it's never a bad idea to go slow in net.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Someone started a similar thread on the NHL board, and reminded me that after all the Vegas trades to protect players, in the end, every team lost what was in essences, their 15th best player and kept 1-14 and 16-22(to 30). When framed that way, it doesn't seem so bad, no matter who they lose.

For me, the biggest emotional lost would be Johns, both because they stood by him over a year, and also, because after years of suffering, Stars fans finally have a top 4 that is among the best in the league, and that might take a step back. (although Harley might ease that pain a bit)

 

[serp]

Stars don't have to lose Johns. Only way would be if they re-sign him before the expansion draft . I would think they find someone else to sign to expose or just give Oleksiak another contract .

 

[BigG44]

It's not going to be difficult to find 1 defender he meets the requirements. That said, it's not just a given that Oleksiak is going to sign a contract with Dallas, and even from a Dallas perspective, that might not make any sense.

Oleksiak doesn't owe Dallas anything. It doesn't make sense for him to not sign a fair UFA contract. He's not going to the Stars a favor and sign a 1 year extension so he can be exposed to the expansion draft.

The next question you have to ask is do you want to be stuck with Jamie Oleksiak on a fair, UFA contract, especially consider you do want to keep Stephen Johns and hopefully sign him after the expansion draft? What happens when Seattle doesn't take the likely bloated contract you gave Oleksiak to be compliant? Are you prepared for your core for multiple years on defense to be Heiskanen, Klingberg, Lindell, Johns, and Oleksiak?

Oeksiak is going to be a 2 to 5 year contract in free agency. It's extremely difficult to project term and money for a guy like Oleksiak because he's really a 3rd pair defender, but there's a chance a team will pay him to be in their Top 4, and he knows that. There's no benefit for him to NOT to test the market when he can clearly see he's behind Heiskanen, Klingberg, Lindell, and Johns.

I'd argue that Oleksiak isn't close to being the answer, and that it's not something to be all that concerned about. I think you treat him just like Stephen Johns. After he gets some interviews in, if he proves to be affordable, I don't have a problem giving him say a 3 year deal. If he and his agent think that staying in Dallas on an affordable contract is something they'd love to agree to before testing free agency ... then by all means give it to him ... load up the salary in Year 1 with nearly every dime of salary in Year 1 as a signing bonus ... and dare Seattle to take him and pay him several million dollars within a few weeks. Outside of that, there are far more affordable options out there.

 

[serp]

It also depends on who are the #6 and #7 defenseman next season. If thats filled by at least one veteran we should be good to go. Doesn't have to be one who is currently on the team. If Harley somehow makes next years Stars it gets a bit more dicey but still should be doable. I personally like to explore a 2 year Sekera extension . That would be good expansion draft fodder and he is already used to sometimes beeing scrached .

 

[BigG44]

Also ... just a reminder but Seattle will have the ability prior to the expansion draft to negotiate with all UFAs. Dallas can lay the ground work with Johns on a deal they are willing to give him, but he will be given an opportunity to speak with Seattle. If they agree to a contract that he decides to sign, he becomes the official selection from Dallas.

IIRC ... Vegas did not use that option, but it's not a slam dunk that just not signing Stephen Johns means he'll be safe.

An advantage Dallas has is that right now, that UFA market looks pretty solid. You have younger guys like Hamilton, Brodin, and Larsson available. There are also some solid veterans in Savard, Petry, Goligoski, and Edler. Some of them will sign, but some will definitely be available.

 

[BigG44]

It also depends on who are the #6 and #7 defenseman next season. If thats filled by at least one veteran we should be good to go. Doesn't have to be one who is currently on the team. If Harley somehow makes next years Stars it gets a bit more dicey but still should be doable. I personally like to explore a 2 year Sekera extension . That would be good expansion draft fodder and he is already used to sometimes beeing scrached .

Sekera was actually a guy I think makes some sense because he's a very good option for a 2 year contract. If Dallas keeps up this ridiculous scratch rotation, I could see him not being totally behind the idea, but it just makes too much sense that as soon as Johns is ready to go, Polak won't rotate in any more.

You're probably going to have to give Sekera more than $2 million a year, but I don't think it would be significantly more than that. That's the main issue though ... his contract would be tough to fit next season. You're probably talking the $2 to $2.5 million range.

 

[Magic Mittens]

Perhaps they’d take Pavs so they can trade him at the deadline. Although who knows what his value would be then

 

[serp]

Perhaps they’d take Pavs so they can trade him at the deadline. Although who knows what his value would be then

He has no trade clause that limits trades to 3 teams that year. That is not going to be an attractive contract to take.