News Article: The Leafs have a chance to redefine "own rental"

[Razz]

Spot on IMO.



This. I can't wait for it to be over. I've been wondering what they'll do with JVR for well over a year not so at least we'll know if he's traded or not and that suspense will be done with. Then it's wait until the summer to see if he's resigned and then it will all be over.

I've been pounding the trade JVR drum for what seems like an eternity but If Zeke's right (and he just might be), then we should close the gap between us and Boston. And if we are close to being a top 5 team at the end of the season and look like we can do some real damage in the playoffs then I will be fine with not trading him.

The next few weeks could swing the decision either way, we'll see.

Yeah I feel the same way. If the Leafs continue to be the Leafs from December until now, I don't think they will go for it. If that's the case, there's no reason in keeping the UFAs around because they are locked into a playoff spot anyway. If they look like they have a legit shot by moving into the top 5, then Lou would be an idiot in trading roster players out.

Overall this deadline is looking very good for us. The Leafs will make the playoffs so no more dropping 2nd's for Boyle or what have you.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Nobody will care. We'll just say its on you and that we'll see. If 4 years roll around and we haven't hit the ECF I imagine things will start back up.

I totally get wanting to manage assets but let's say Bozak, JVR, Leo returned a first and two seconds or even two first and a second. I just don't see that as being what puts us over the top. It's not like we don't have good prospects that we can't currently get on the team already. I haven't checked in a while so please correct me if I'm wrong but we still have most of our picks this year as well don't we?

 

[IBeL34f]

But if it's just the hot streak, why would that just affect actual goals and not expected goals? Their goal differential is +38 while ours is +16, that difference of 22 is massive, almost half a goal a game.

As someone who used to do a ton of sports betting (and did pretty well too) I'm a big believer in odds. I never bet on 7 game series (just individual games) but I suspect that if you looked at a big enough sample size, you'd find that out of all the series where one team was a 3-2 favourite, the favourite did indeed win somewhere around 60% of the time. But whatever, I don't bet anymore and if I were to come out of retirement so to speak, I'd probably just put some fun money on the Leafs (as I suspect many here have done already).

Because they're playing the same, but the bounces are going their way more than they were previously. That's my best guess, anyway, but I'm not sure what (or how much) information goes into determining the xGF%

 

[Gary Nylund]

Because they're playing the same, but the bounces are going their way more than they were previously. That's my best guess, anyway, but I'm not sure what (or how much) information goes into determining the xGF%

That's a reasonable guess. Another possibility is that the stat is flawed which seems plausible as all stats are flawed to some degree.

So either the stat is flawed and Boston really is that much better than us, or the stat isn't flawed in which case Boston has been luckier than us by an extraordinary margin. I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle there as it so often is.

 

[Daisy Jane]

I totally get wanting to manage assets but let's say Bozak, JVR, Leo returned a first and two seconds or even two first and a second. I just don't see that as being what puts us over the top. It's not like we don't have good prospects that we can't currently get on the team already. I haven't checked in a while so please correct me if I'm wrong but we still have most of our picks this year as well don't we?

we have eight.
every round except 6th.

 

[IBeL34f]

That's a reasonable guess. Another possibility is that the stat is flawed which seems plausible as all stats are flawed to some degree.

So either the stat is flawed and Boston really is that much better than us, or the stat isn't flawed in which case Boston has been luckier than us by an extraordinary margin. I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle there as it so often is.

The best way to determine who is better is to face them in a Best-of-7 series and see who emerges the victor. Stats only paint a picture of the past - They are absolutely flawed as predictors of the future, at least in terms of hockey.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I totally get wanting to manage assets but let's say Bozak, JVR, Leo returned a first and two seconds or even two first and a second. I just don't see that as being what puts us over the top. It's not like we don't have good prospects that we can't currently get on the team already. I haven't checked in a while so please correct me if I'm wrong but we still have most of our picks this year as well don't we?

I get what you're saying but at the same time, two firsts and a second are very valuable and they could be what puts us over the top at some point. Or think of it this way, what if a few years from now there's a player available who we think could put us over the top but we simply don't have the assets to trade without weakening our team in some other area. But, if at that point we had some more quality picks/prospects to trade, we could do the deal. So in that case, those extra assets could be difference between winning or not winning the cup.

In fact that scenario could happen as soon as next season. Say we add Tavares, I believe that puts us firmly among the top contenders. Wouldn't it be nice to have those extra picks/prospects to deal, especially if we suffer an injury to a key player.

Any way you slice it, picks/prospects are very valuable. Not so much the lower rounds but 1st round picks, sure.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The best way to determine who is better is to face them in a Best-of-7 series and see who emerges the victor. Stats only paint a picture of the past - They are absolutely flawed as predictors of the future, at least in terms of hockey.

OK then, done deal. Cya in April.

Edit - what if the series went to game 7 OT. That would be inconclusive and we'd have to play them again, correct?

 

[nsleaf]

This thread should be a fun place to be when we likely don't trade anyone at the TDL.

Yea, can't wait for the discussions on the "rumored trades" that never happened.

 

[IBeL34f]

OK then, done deal. Cya in April.

Edit - what if the series went to game 7 OT. That would be inconclusive and we'd have to play them again, correct?

Then you could say that the teams were close, or you could start looking into the myriad things that can have an impact on hockey games, such as injuries, missed chances, home ice, etc.
I don't even believe that the best team always wins the series (in actuality, it's a pretty easily determined fact that that's not the case). But it's definitely the closest way to judge, if one needs to.
I mean, look no further than Ottawa last season - One goal away from progressing to the SCF, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a single person who believes they're anywhere near the same level of team as Pittsburgh.
Each Playoff series is its own beast, each game is its own beast, and that's part of the beauty of hockey. It's a fickle thing.

 

[thewave]

I totally get wanting to manage assets but let's say Bozak, JVR, Leo returned a first and two seconds or even two first and a second. I just don't see that as being what puts us over the top. It's not like we don't have good prospects that we can't currently get on the team already. I haven't checked in a while so please correct me if I'm wrong but we still have most of our picks this year as well don't we?

What if you combine the return with something and go get Doughty (who signs). That's my whole point, I don't care if they use the proceeds on picks or on a really good player. Both options help.

Doughty or 2 rounds of JVR Bozak and a Handshake?
Ferrari or 2 month rental of a Ferrari?
60ft Yacht or 1mth rental of 60 ft yacht.

Take your pick. We will not get a cup and I can assure you that.

 

[ShaneFalco]

The trade deadline day has become a snore-fest all around. I used to take the day off for it.....

 

[Gary Nylund]

Then you could say that the teams were close, or you could start looking into the myriad things that can have an impact on hockey games, such as injuries, missed chances, home ice, etc.
I don't even believe that the best team always wins the series (in actuality, it's a pretty easily determined fact that that's not the case). But it's definitely the closest way to judge, if one needs to.
I mean, look no further than Ottawa last season - One goal away from progressing to the SCF, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a single person who believes they're anywhere near the same level of team as Pittsburgh.
Each Playoff series is its own beast, each game is its own beast, and that's part of the beauty of hockey. It's a fickle thing.

Yes, agree with all this. I was tongue-in-cheek with the game 7 OT comment.

 

[IBeL34f]

No matter what happens, I'm at least glad we actually do look like a competitive team at this point - If we do let players walk, this iteration of it will be much less frustrating than getting nothing in return for MGK back in the day, when we weren't even a very good team.

 

[ACC1224]

I'm looking forward to a few years from now when we'll hear the "if we had only traded JVR in 2018, we'd have a cup by now".

 

[thewave]

I'm looking forward to a few years from now when we'll hear the "if we had only traded JVR in 2018, we'd have a cup by now".

That'll happen either way. If we only kept JVR we probably could have won with that team.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm looking forward to a few years from now when we'll hear the "if we had only traded JVR in 2018, we'd have a cup by now".

We won't be talking about JVR a few years from now, he's not Reimer. And I'm looking forward to winning the cup within the next few years regardless of JVR is traded or not.

 

[ACC1224]

We won't be talking about JVR a few years from now, he's not Reimer. And I'm looking forward to winning the cup within the next few years regardless of JVR is traded or not.

Not JVR but the riches that could have been used had he been dumped at this deadline.
It will be something like, we could have traded JVR in 2018 to xxx for their 1st. That 1st turned into xxx who would have really put them over the top.

If I had it my way we wouldn't have been talking about JVR at all this year. He should have been dumped in the summer.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not JVR but the riches that could have been used had he been dumped at this deadline.
It will be something like, we could have traded JVR in 2018 to xxx for their 1st. That 1st turned into xxx who would have really put them over the top.

If I had it my way we wouldn't have been talking about JVR at all this year. He should have been dumped in the summer.

And I'm hoping it will be something like "we won the cup, who's JVR?".

 

[ACC1224]

And I'm hoping it will be something like "we won the cup, who's JVR?".

 

[IBeL34f]

At this point I might actually be surprised if JVR isn't a Leaf next season. I can see us trying to fit him in long-term, and wouldn't be shocked if management believes his value to us is still highest as a Maple Leaf than as trade bait. Especially if Marleau isn't here in year 3 of his contract, I think the cap crunch could potentially be over-stated around here, where JVR is concerned.

 

[Pyrophorus]

The trade deadline day has become a snore-fest all around. I used to take the day off for it.....

...and it doesn't need to be a 10hr show on TV.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

I'm looking forward to a few years from now when we'll hear the "if we had only traded JVR in 2018, we'd have a cup by now".

That'll happen either way. If we only kept JVR we probably could have won with that team.

I think these two posts sum up Leaf fandom. It really doesn't matter what we do, it's always the wrong choice. That's not meant as a slight against either poster just to be clear.

 

[WTFMAN99]

funny - i would phrase that as "The Bruins have to hope to god that line stays red hot."

You'd be in the minority, not that the minority can't be right but that line going cold won't be the end of the world.

 

[PromisedLand]

if tonight's game is any indication of the "need" of bozak/jvr on the leafs roster then it is an absolute NO!

only line that didn't score AND that too playing sheltered mins. Their job is to freakin' score playing shelterd role.

at least they weren't on ice for goal against.

Lou needs to trade them and get value for this team.

Trade for RNH Lou; you can do it!

JVR/Bozak+1st rounder for RNH. That impending McDavid cap hit is going to make Chirelli do "interesting" things. Take advantage PLEASE!