News Article: The Leafs have a chance to redefine "own rental"

[Gary Nylund]

On this we can agree. And if that train leaves the station I will be on the Doughty train until that arrives.

It's crowded on that platform, I'm having trouble breathing.

And if we're speaking about Odds still, then I have to point out that 40% to beat the bruins in a playoffs series is way, way too low. The odds of a 51xgf% team winning 4 of 7gms against a 53xgf% team, both with similar special teams and goaltending, is much higher than 40%. Gotta be somewhere around 48-49%.

Gee whiz, 48-49%, it sounds like you're saying these two teams are pretty much equal. What are the odds of them being so far ahead of us in PTS% at this point in the season, gotta be at least a 100-1 shot or what?

 

[ToneDog]

Backes is as much of a center as marleau is - i.e. he's not anymore.

Maybe but Backes will be going up against TyBo. Perhaps Marleau makes up some of the difference between Backes and TyBo. Let's see how TyBo does on Saturday against the Bruins but I doubt either team shows their cards.

 

[zeke]

It's crowded on that platform, I'm having trouble breathing.



Gee whiz, 48-49%, it sounds like you're saying these two teams are pretty much equal. What are the odds of them being so far ahead of us in PTS% at this point in the season, gotta be at least a 100-1 shot or what?

last year, the two teams were dead even. at christmas this year, the 2 teams were dead even. since then, the last month has seen the bruins on fire and the leafs ice cold. but that's no big surprise - similar teams go on hot and cold streaks all the time. it's expected.

 

[zeke]

Maybe but Backes will be going up against TyBo. Perhaps Marleau makes up some of the difference between Backes and TyBo. Let's see how TyBo does on Saturday against the Bruins but I doubt either team shows their cards.

backes doesn't play center anymore.

 

[Gary Nylund]

last year, the two teams were dead even. at christmas this year, the 2 teams were dead even. since then, the last month has seen the bruins on fire and the leafs ice cold. but that's no big surprise - similar teams go on hot and cold streaks all the time. it's expected.

OK, I'll admit that this does make a certain amount of sense. It's also true that going forward we have an easier schedule, if you're right than we should do some catching up from here on in. We'll see what happens.

If you are right then my 40% is indeed too low, will be interesting to see how things go from here. It's also true that we've added Dermott, if he keeps playing the way he has been then that obviously helps too.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Maybe but Backes will be going up against TyBo. Perhaps Marleau makes up some of the difference between Backes and TyBo. Let's see how TyBo does on Saturday against the Bruins but I doubt either team shows their cards.

obviously the answer is.
trade for a 3rd line centre (like not just a rental if you can swing it).
Move Bozak to the 4th line.
Moore to pressbox.

insta-depth. this way, regardless of what happens,
you have Marleau (in a pinch), you have Bozak who can move up, and you have Moore to take his place, and you have Fred if they all get banged up and you have Nylander who can move in if Babcock gets drunk. and you have Komarov who can even play 4th line centre.

all the options.

 

[ToneDog]

obviously the answer is.
trade for a 3rd line centre (like not just a rental if you can swing it).
Move Bozak to the 4th line.
Moore to pressbox.

insta-depth. this way, regardless of what happens,
you have Marleau (in a pinch), you have Bozak who can move up, and you have Moore to take his place, and you have Fred if they all get banged up and you have Nylander who can move in if Babcock gets drunk. and you have Komarov who can even play 4th line centre.

all the options.

After listening to "McKenzie: Price to get a defenceman may scare Leafs off", I'm thinking that might be the better way to strengthen the team for the playoffs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Zeke - hold on a second. You said that "The odds of a 51xgf% team winning 4 of 7gms against a 53xgf% team," etc.

I remember you saying that expected goals are a good stat and I've taken your word for it and that's fine. However, I just noticed that you haven't mentioned xga%, why is that?

Now forgive me for being suspicious but I know you're something of a homer so I can't help but suspect that the expected goals against numbers aren't as flattering to us and that's why you've neglected to mention them. I'm always willing to admit it when I'm wrong, show me I'm wrong. If I'm not wrong though, maybe my 40% number is still good.

I look forward to your response.

 

[IBeL34f]

Zeke - hold on a second. You said that "The odds of a 51xgf% team winning 4 of 7gms against a 53xgf% team," etc.

I remember you saying that expected goals are a good stat and I've taken your word for it and that's fine. However, I just noticed that you haven't mentioned xga%, why is that?

Now forgive me for being suspicious but I know you're something of a homer so I can't help but suspect that the expected goals against numbers aren't as flattering to us and that's why you've neglected to mention them. I'm always willing to admit it when I'm wrong, show me I'm wrong. If I'm not wrong though, maybe my 40% number is still good.

I look forward to your response.

I'm not a stats guru, so there's definitely a chance I've got this wrong and should be leaving this to someone else... But Goals are a finite thing, and can only be For or Against. If you're looking at the expected percentage of goals scored For, wouldn't the remainder be your expected goals Against? I would assume, using the numbers above, that we have 49xGA% and Boston has 47xGA%
The real-world numbers fall pretty well in line with these expected numbers (Toronto's actual GF% is 52.6% while Boston's actual GF% is 56.9%)

 

[Daisy Jane]

After listening to "McKenzie: Price to get a defenceman may scare Leafs off", I'm thinking that might be the better way to strengthen the team for the playoffs.

i think (In a sense) this is where i like Lou because he won't be all .... Bergevin and make a dumbo move because everyone is yelling at him to get a defenseman. if you can find a Hainsey jr, do it, and i think that is

Rielly/Hainsey
Jake/Hainsey Jr
Z + Dermott + Borgman
Carrick

Polak

then i said, get a 3rd line C. (I would trade some assets to get a guy who is under contract for 2-3 years, and you know, poof. he's there). make the moves as i've said. if people feel we must trade JVR, then trade JVR, but then i'd find a winger who is really good in playoffs/pp or something.

then you take that line up and see what happens.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

This thread should be a fun place to be when we likely don't trade anyone at the TDL.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm not a stats guru, so there's definitely a chance I've got this wrong and should be leaving this to someone else... But Goals are a finite thing, and can only be For or Against. If you're looking at the expected percentage of goals scored For, wouldn't the remainder be your expected goals Against? I would assume, using the numbers above, that we have 49xGA% and Boston has 47xGA%
The real-world numbers fall pretty well in line with these expected numbers (Toronto's actual GF% is 52.6% while Boston's actual GF% is 56.9%)

Thanks for explanation, I think that makes sense and was thinking along those lines already. Hopefully Zeke will fly by to confirm at some point.

So I take it that would suggest that the fact that Boston's goal differential is so much better than ours is just a fluke which is very odd to say the least. What can I say, I hope it's true as I would love to be convinced that our chances of winning the cup are better than I thought.

 

[Gary Nylund]

This thread should be a fun place to be when we likely don't trade anyone at the TDL.

You mean more fun than it is now? Hard to believe.

 

[ShaneFalco]

This thread should be a fun place to be when we likely don't trade anyone at the TDL.

I don't think anyone will be surprised. Disappointed maybe

 

[Razz]

This thread should be a fun place to be when we likely don't trade anyone at the TDL.

I think the outcome of the current line shakeup will determine that. Hopefully we get clarity soon. In my view we have two possible outcomes:

- If the Leafs go on a run between now and the break, they buy and go for a playoff run
- If the Leafs continue to be mediocre between now and the break, they sell the UFAs and try to upgrade

Either way they make the playoffs, just depends on how this evaluation period ends up as to how they handle these playoffs. I agree though, this thread will be hopping.

 

[thewave]

This thread should be a fun place to be when we likely don't trade anyone at the TDL.

Nobody will care. We'll just say its on you and that we'll see. If 4 years roll around and we haven't hit the ECF I imagine things will start back up.

 

[taurine330]

I think the outcome of the current line shakeup will determine that. Hopefully we get clarity soon. In my view we have two possible outcomes:

- If the Leafs go on a run between now and the break, they buy and go for a playoff run
- If the Leafs continue to be mediocre between now and the break, they sell the UFAs and try to upgrade

Either way they make the playoffs, just depends on how this evaluation period ends up as to how they handle these playoffs. I agree though, this thread will be hopping.

Excuse me, what break?

 

[Razz]

Nobody will care. We'll just say its on you and that we'll see. If 4 years roll around and we haven't hit the ECF I imagine things will start back up.

I think that people will care. Fans seem divided on this subject and I'm sure management is as well. This is the most important deadline we've seen in a while. I'm glad Lou is the man in charge.

The time between now and the deadline is crucial for the team as far as what the best path forward is. Personally, I hope we trade the UFAs and pull a St Louis, but we'll see.

 

[Razz]

Excuse me, what break?

Sorry, I meant deadline.

 

[Ignatius Reilly]

Nobody will care. We'll just say its on you and that we'll see. If 4 years roll around and we haven't hit the ECF I imagine things will start back up.

4 years?

A new thread, exactly like this one, will be hot in exactly 12 months from now. Book it.

 

[IBeL34f]

Thanks for explanation, I think that makes sense and was thinking along those lines already. Hopefully Zeke will fly by to confirm at some point.

So I take it that would suggest that the fact that Boston's goal differential is so much better than ours is just a fluke which is very odd to say the least. What can I say, I hope it's true as I would love to be convinced that our chances of winning the cup are better than I thought.

I would look at it less as a fluke, and more a natural byproduct of their recent hot streak (though, I suppose you could determine that the hot streak itself is a fluke, and that they should be expected to cool off significantly in the future - This would obviously bode well for us).
I still maintain that any determined "odds" are basically bullshit, though, and would wager (heh) that the margin of error (accounting for the unreliability of human beings being human beings, not to mention straight-up luck) that would need to be included puts any chances too close to 50/50 for them to be all that meaningful when trying to determine the outcome of a Best-of-7 series. Let the games play themselves out, and only put your money down to feed your fix.

 

[thewave]

4 years?

A new thread, exactly like this one, will be hot in exactly 12 months from now. Book it.

This year is special.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't think anyone will be surprised. Disappointed maybe

Spot on IMO.

I think that people will care. Fans seem divided on this subject and I'm sure management is as well. This is the most important deadline we've seen in a while. I'm glad Lou is the man in charge.

The time between now and the deadline is crucial for the team as far as what the best path forward is. Personally, I hope we trade the UFAs and pull a St Louis, but we'll see.

This. I can't wait for it to be over. I've been wondering what they'll do with JVR for well over a year not so at least we'll know if he's traded or not and that suspense will be done with. Then it's wait until the summer to see if he's resigned and then it will all be over.

I've been pounding the trade JVR drum for what seems like an eternity but If Zeke's right (and he just might be), then we should close the gap between us and Boston. And if we are close to being a top 5 team at the end of the season and look like we can do some real damage in the playoffs then I will be fine with not trading him.

The next few weeks could swing the decision either way, we'll see.

 

[Ignatius Reilly]

This year is special.

I get your point, but I'll bet it still happens. I have faith in HFBoards...

 

[Gary Nylund]

I would look at it less as a fluke, and more a natural byproduct of their recent hot streak (though, I suppose you could determine that the hot streak itself is a fluke, and that they should be expected to cool off significantly in the future - This would obviously bode well for us).
I still maintain that any determined "odds" are basically bull****, though, and would wager (heh) that the margin of error (accounting for the unreliability of human beings being human beings, not to mention straight-up luck) that would need to be included puts any chances too close to 50/50 for them to be all that meaningful when trying to determine the outcome of a Best-of-7 series. Let the games play themselves out, and only put your money down to feed your fix.

But if it's just the hot streak, why would that just affect actual goals and not expected goals? Their goal differential is +38 while ours is +16, that difference of 22 is massive, almost half a goal a game.

As someone who used to do a ton of sports betting (and did pretty well too) I'm a big believer in odds. I never bet on 7 game series (just individual games) but I suspect that if you looked at a big enough sample size, you'd find that out of all the series where one team was a 3-2 favourite, the favourite did indeed win somewhere around 60% of the time. But whatever, I don't bet anymore and if I were to come out of retirement so to speak, I'd probably just put some fun money on the Leafs (as I suspect many here have done already).