Speculation: The Jets and the 2021 Seattle Expansion Draft

[raideralex99]

Why worry about it ... its only one player or a draft pick deal.
Two years away is a long time ... the Jets can win 2 Stanley Cups by then.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

To make this short and sweet, I'll just say expose Little. Might have to trade a prospect and/or a pick in order to make it happen. Some might not agree about now, but it will when the expansion draft happens.

 

[mondo3]

The Athletic writers have us losing one of Copp, Tanev, or Appleton. Pretty fun article for those who subscribe (recommended).

 

[Spock]

What does everyone think Dustin Byfuglien's contract will look like that summer? Will it be with the Jets?

 

[Daximus]

Seattle will likely have a choice between older Perreault, maybe Copp, maybe Tanev, maybe Roslovic.

Even if we are in a pinch and close to losing Niku or Roslovic, we could always get Little to waive and expose his contract that Seattle will never take.

It all depends on what the rest of their team looks like. We are likely going to lose on of Roslovic, Appleton or Niku depending on how things shake out. Copp and Tanev are hard to predict whether they stay Jets that far out. Wheeler and Little are hard to project whether they will be worth protecting.

 

[Daximus]

Yeah they could, much like Vegas took Thorburn. My thinking is that if Byfuglien wants to be in Winnipeg and wants Winnipeg to succeed he would be willing to agree to terms and wait to sign til after the draft/free agency period to allow Winnipeg to protect an additional player.

It would be nice. Hard to say what might happen by then.

 

[Gm0ney]

Wheeler needs to be protected. His $8.5M deal starts next year (2019-20 season) and carries a full NMC through the end of the 2021-22 season.

Jets Protected Forwards (7)
Wheeler (NMC)
Scheifele
Laine
Ehlers
Connor
Roslovic
Lowry

Jets Protected Defensemen (3)
Trouba
Morrissey
Someone else - let's say Niku

Jets Protected Goalies (1)
Hellebuyck

Exempt: Vesalainen (and anyone else drafted in 2017 or later - except McKenzie I believe because he's playing pro this year?)

Exposed Forwards: Little (2024), Perreault (UFA 2021), Tanev, Copp, Petan, Lemieux , Dano, Suess, Harkins, Spacek, Appleton, McKenzie, Shaw, Griffith, Kerdiles, Lipon.
Exposed Defensemen: Byfuglien (UFA 2021), Myers, Kulikov, Chiarot, Morrow, Stanley, Poolman, Green, Nogier, Schilling.
Exposed Goalies: Berdin, Brossoit, Comrie

Most of those exposed players aren't currently under contract for 2021-22, but I assume some of them will be (the guys currently on ELCs for the most part: Suess, Harkins, Spacek, McKenzie, Stanley, Niku, Green, Nogier, and Berdin).

Edit: CapFriendly has a Seattle Expansion Draft page Seattle Expansion Draft Simulator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Daximus]

I think it's dangerous to assume Seattle won't take a player just because of age, if the player is still otherwise producing. Remember Vegas has to hit the cap floor as well, so they need to take some salary. And there'll be some pressure on them to do well after what Vegas did last year.

Yeah it all depends on who and what they get from other teams. If they have to hit the cap floor Wheeler's contract and leadership abilities might be exactly what they want. Or they might go for one of Niku, Appleton or Roslovic depending on whose exposed. Who will all be around 24-25 and in the middle of their primes by then.

 

[Daximus]

Wheeler needs to be protected. His $8.5M deal starts next year (2019-20 season) and carries a full NMC through the end of the 2021-22 season.

Jets Protected Forwards (7)
Wheeler (NMC)
Scheifele
Laine
Ehlers
Connor
Roslovic
Lowry

Jets Protected Defensemen (3)
Trouba
Morrissey
Someone else - let's say Niku

Jets Protected Goalies (1)
Hellebuyck

Exempt: Vesalainen (and anyone else drafted in 2017 or later - except McKenzie I believe because he's playing pro this year?)

Exposed Forwards: Little (2024), Perreault (UFA 2021), Tanev, Copp, Petan, Lemieux , Dano, Suess, Harkins, Spacek, Appleton, McKenzie, Shaw, Griffith, Kerdiles, Lipon.
Exposed Defensemen: Byfuglien (UFA 2021), Myers, Kulikov, Chiarot, Morrow, Stanley, Poolman, Green, Nogier, Schilling.
Exposed Goalies: Berdin, Brossoit, Comrie

Most of those exposed players aren't currently under contract for 2021-22, but I assume some of them will be (the guys currently on ELCs for the most part: Suess, Harkins, Spacek, McKenzie, Stanley, Niku, Green, Nogier, and Berdin).

Damn you're right Wheels does need to be protected.

Both Perreault and Buff are UFA's and Seattle (like Vegas) will get a jump before FA to negotiate a deal with them if they aren't signed by then and still with us.

I would go.

1. Scheif
2. Laine
3. Connor
4. Ehlers
5. Roslovic
6. Appleton
7. Lowry

1. Trouba
2. MoJo
3. Niku

1. Helle

Then work out something with Buff where we expose him but sign him in FA. We also leave 35 year old Wheeler and 34 year old Little exposed and hope to gain some cap space back. Slight chance they take Stanley, Green, Lemieux, Harkins or Spacek. Or Copp, Tanev, Petan if they are still with us.

This is all predicated on Rosie and Appleton progressing into capable forwards. and niku progressing into a capable Dmen. AND Trouba staying. By then Vesalainen will also likely be on the team and could be an adequate Wheeler replacement.

If they pick Wheeler. Mark Scheifele is the third Captain of Jets 2.0
Wheeler could be enticing enough for them to take. High salary, under contract for 3 more years and a proven Captain.

Edit: Wonder if we can get Wheeler to waive to go to Seattle by then...

 

[Daximus]

Damn I was looking at the wrong spot. Wheeler does have a full NMC in 2021-22 and MUST be protected.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Damn you're right Wheels does need to be protected.

Both Perreault and Buff are UFA's and Seattle (like Vegas) will get a jump before FA to negotiate a deal with them if they aren't signed by then and still with us.

I would go.

1. Scheif
2. Laine
3. Connor
4. Ehlers
5. Roslovic
6. Appleton
7. Lowry

1. Trouba
2. MoJo
3. Niku

1. Helle

Then work out something with Buff where we expose him but sign him in FA. We also leave 35 year old Wheeler and 34 year old Little exposed and hope to gain some cap space back. Slight chance they take Stanley, Green, Lemieux, Harkins or Spacek. Or Copp, Tanev, Petan if they are still with us.

This is all predicated on Rosie and Appleton progressing into capable forwards. and niku progressing into a capable Dmen. AND Trouba staying. By then Vesalainen will also likely be on the team and could be an adequate Wheeler replacement.

If they pick Wheeler. Mark Scheifele is the third Captain of Jets 2.0
Wheeler could be enticing enough for them to take. High salary, under contract for 3 more years and a proven Captain.

Edit: Wonder if we can get Wheeler to waive to go to Seattle by then...

If we exposed Buff I would not make a deal which would mean the Jets have to switch draft order. If they take Buff they take Buff.

 

[Peter Tagli Eddie]

Seattle mock expansion draft: The full roster


The score has us losing Niku.

POS.	PROTECTED PLAYERS
F	Mark Scheifele
F	Blake Wheeler
F	Patrik Laine
F	Nikolaj Ehlers
F	Bryan Little
F	Kyle Connor
F	Jack Roslovic
D	Dustin Byfuglien
D	Jacob Trouba
D	Josh Morrissey
G	Connor Hellebuyck

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Pick: Sami Niku (D)
Other considerations: Logan Stanley (D), Nic Petan (F)
We project the Jets will remain contenders three years from now, but they will need the heart and soul of their team, Byfuglien, to make a run at the cup. This leaves two promising blue-liners - Niku and Stanley - exposed. Stanley, a 6-foot-7 former first-rounder, is far less proven than Niku, who was named AHL defenseman of the year last season.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Seattle mock expansion draft: The full roster


The score has us losing Niku.

POS.	PROTECTED PLAYERS
F	Mark Scheifele
F	Blake Wheeler
F	Patrik Laine
F	Nikolaj Ehlers
F	Bryan Little
F	Kyle Connor
F	Jack Roslovic
D	Dustin Byfuglien
D	Jacob Trouba
D	Josh Morrissey
G	Connor Hellebuyck

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Pick: Sami Niku (D)
Other considerations: Logan Stanley (D), Nic Petan (F)
We project the Jets will remain contenders three years from now, but they will need the heart and soul of their team, Byfuglien, to make a run at the cup. This leaves two promising blue-liners - Niku and Stanley - exposed. Stanley, a 6-foot-7 former first-rounder, is far less proven than Niku, who was named AHL defenseman of the year last season.

I disagree. Would much rather lose Buff 3 years from now than Niku.

 

[Daximus]

Seattle mock expansion draft: The full roster


The score has us losing Niku.

POS.	PROTECTED PLAYERS
F	Mark Scheifele
F	Blake Wheeler
F	Patrik Laine
F	Nikolaj Ehlers
F	Bryan Little
F	Kyle Connor
F	Jack Roslovic
D	Dustin Byfuglien
D	Jacob Trouba
D	Josh Morrissey
G	Connor Hellebuyck

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Pick: Sami Niku (D)
Other considerations: Logan Stanley (D), Nic Petan (F)
We project the Jets will remain contenders three years from now, but they will need the heart and soul of their team, Byfuglien, to make a run at the cup. This leaves two promising blue-liners - Niku and Stanley - exposed. Stanley, a 6-foot-7 former first-rounder, is far less proven than Niku, who was named AHL defenseman of the year last season.

There is a way around not losing Buff and not protecting him because he's a UFA. Though that would depend on his desire to remain a Jet. so we might be able to protect Niku. We also don't have to protect Little as he has a modified NTC not an NMC so we can expose him. So we can protect Lowry or Appleton at that point. The only other way in keeping whoever is left over of Lowry/Appleton is to make a deal to take someone else or get Wheeler to waive his NMC.

 

[cheswick]

Trouba isn't on the Jets when this draft happens.

 

[FinJetster]

Since their is some talk on this in the Niku thread I figured it would be better to start a thread for this to keep the Niku thread on topic.

So the rules:
- Teams can protect 8 skaters and 1 goalie or 7 forwards, 3 defencemen and 1 goalie.
- Players with full NMC's must be protected.
- 1st and 2nd year ELC players as well as unsigned players are exempt.

All Teams must expose:
- One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
- Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 season and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
- One goaltender who is under contract in 2021-22 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2021-22. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club's protected list.
- Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a club's player exposure requirements, unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection by the League.

Rules for Seattle:
- Must select one player from each presently existing club (minus Vegas) for a total of 30 players (not including additional players who may be acquired as the result of violations of the Expansion Draft rules).
- Must select the following number of players at each position: 14 forwards, 9 defensemen and 3 goaltenders.
- Must select a minimum of 20 players who are under contract for the 2021-22 season.
- Must select players with an aggregate Expansion Draft value that is between 60-100% of the prior season's upper limit for the salary cap.
- May not buy out any of the players selected in the Expansion Draft earlier than the summer following its first season.


We must protect:
No one has a full NMC for 2021-22 on the Jets.

Players eligible to be taken by Seattle:

Forwards: Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine, Little, Connor, Ehlers, Roslovic, Appleton, Perreault, Lowry, Tanev, Copp, Petan, Lemieux, Dano, Suess, Harkins, Spacek, McKenzie, Shaw, Kerdiles, Griffith, Lipon.

Defence: Byfuglien, Trouba, Morrissey, Niku, Myers, Kulikov, Chiarot, Morrow, Stanley, Poolman, Green, Nogier, Schilling.

Goalies: Hellebuyck, Brossoit, Comrie, Berdin


We likely go with the 7 forwards and 3 configuration.

Thanks Dax. Was surprised there was not a thread on this yet, but was too lazy to open one myself.

 

[Spock]

Trouba isn't on the Jets when this draft happens.

I'm not sure anyone is actually on the Jets. That would be dangerous, and against aviation safety regulations.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Trouba isn't on the Jets when this draft happens.

This. He is a UFA in 2020. And while it is theoretically possible he signs with the Jets long-term, one would think he would have done so already if he was willing to.

 

[GaryPoppins]

Honestly so tough to speculate. I think this summer will see some pretty substantial roster "surgery."

Gotta think Perreault, Myers are gone. Tanev could be gone given UFA. Benny will be UFA, Morrow, Copp, Laine, Connor, Lemmy, Please all RFA..

Not to mention the elephant in the room, Trouba.

This team could look drastically different from the current roster.

 

[BigZ65]

I disagree. Would much rather lose Buff 3 years from now than Niku.

Totally depends on how Niku develops. May not even be an NHLer.

If they want to keep Buff chances are he'll already have a contract by the time of the XD.

Berdin is another interesting guy depending on how the next few seasons go.

 

[PhilJets]

It will be Wheeler or Little unprotected.

Protected
Schiefele
Laine
Connor
Ehlers
Lowry
Roslovic


Edit:
If Wheeler has NMC

Then it will be Little

 

[Scheifele55]

With years to go before the Expansion draft, Appleton and or Roslovic could have breakout seasons between then which could complicate the protection process.

Out of curiosity what happens if a team has more 9 NMC players and 4 are like dmen?

 

[Whileee]

Wheeler needs to be protected. His $8.5M deal starts next year (2019-20 season) and carries a full NMC through the end of the 2021-22 season.

Jets Protected Forwards (7)
Wheeler (NMC)
Scheifele
Laine
Ehlers
Connor
Roslovic
Lowry

Jets Protected Defensemen (3)
Trouba
Morrissey
Someone else - let's say Niku

Jets Protected Goalies (1)
Hellebuyck

Exempt: Vesalainen (and anyone else drafted in 2017 or later - except McKenzie I believe because he's playing pro this year?)

Exposed Forwards: Little (2024), Perreault (UFA 2021), Tanev, Copp, Petan, Lemieux , Dano, Suess, Harkins, Spacek, Appleton, McKenzie, Shaw, Griffith, Kerdiles, Lipon.
Exposed Defensemen: Byfuglien (UFA 2021), Myers, Kulikov, Chiarot, Morrow, Stanley, Poolman, Green, Nogier, Schilling.
Exposed Goalies: Berdin, Brossoit, Comrie

Most of those exposed players aren't currently under contract for 2021-22, but I assume some of them will be (the guys currently on ELCs for the most part: Suess, Harkins, Spacek, McKenzie, Stanley, Niku, Green, Nogier, and Berdin).

Edit: CapFriendly has a Seattle Expansion Draft page Seattle Expansion Draft Simulator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Exactly this.

 

[Get Bengt]

Did I read that correctly: that Wheeler will make $8 mill by 2021?!?

Good grief. I call dibs on “Wheeler5GoalSeason”.

If still on the roster - and rules permit - leaving him unprotected will be, to me, a no-brainer.

If they want his services that badly in 2021, they’re welcome to them.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Far too early for this discussion. I don't think we can say even with certainty whether we'd go 7-3-1 or 8 skaters + 1 goalie, let alone offer an educated guess on who'll fill out the protected list.

This exercise will be limited to everyone agreeing on Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers, Laine & Morrissey.

Any further speculation will be limited by current bias. A lot will change over the next 2.5 years (31 months).

Perreault, Lowry, Myers, Kulikov, Tanev, Byfuglien, Chiarot, Trouba will all be or have been UFA's, if they are even on the team.

We have no idea how well Stanley, Niku, Appleton, Petan, Roslovic, Lemieux & Poolman will have progressed.

Wheeler & Little could regress to the point they are deemed expendable. Conversely each could still be valuable commodities.

Will we have Trouba? Will he be lost to UFA or will the Jets have recovered an as yet unknown player(s) in a trade?

Too many variables at play here.