Salary Cap: The Guds days are gone, now it's time to look forward

[Shady Machine]

Would Murray take a 4 year x 7.5 million? That would leave him with one last big contract.

None of us have any idea. It really depends if Murray wants a long term contract for security or if he wants a mid term to bet on himself.

 

[Pancakes]

Why would they "let him walk"? You trade him if he's asking for too much money. Sacrificing other areas of your roster to pay an above average goalie based on nostalgia just just dumb IMO. You don't overpay him just because you won with him in the past, especially when you're such a serious cap crunch.

You'd be better off trading Murray and signing someone like Markstrom for $5 million over signing Murray for $8.5 million. That's just the truth in my eyes.

Let him walk was a poor choice of words. I meant to say I don't see JR trading him.

Do I personally like the thought of trading him if he wants a big cap hit? I dunno. Consider that an FA goalie would cost big bucks too, so how much are we saving really? I'm also not sure he's an "average" goalie. Here are his save percentage finishes from 2016-17 to now. The filter I used was goalies in this report I ran had to have started at least 49 games in each of the seasons(as that is around what MM started). So, with that in mind, here are his finishes:

2016-17: 4th
2017-18: 19th
2018-19: 3rd

You can say I cherrypicked those numbers if you want but most any starter is going to start at least around 49 games like MM did, so I think it was a fair report to use. Those numbers don't seem to suggest he's average. If anything, they suggest he's elite apart from one bad season, but that one bad season is sandwiched between two very good ones.

This season he is 20th (out of goalies who have started at least 5 games) in save %, but it's so early that it's hard to read too much into that. If he finishes the season in the bottom half or around 15th or so in save percentage then it would be fair to wonder what MM is the real one: the 2017-18/2019-20 one or the MM in the other two seasons.

But anyways, if you trade him, you gotta replace him, and FA goalies carry plenty of risk. And teams that don't have a defined goalie tend to search far and wide for them for freaking years. Look at the Flyers. They haven't had a cornerstone goalie since f***ing Hasek. Is MM that goalie? Debatable I suppose, but if he finishes in the top half in save % again I'd suggest he is actually worth what we might pay him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Let him walk was a poor choice of words. I meant to say I don't see JR trading him.

Do I personally like the thought of trading him if he wants a big cap hit? I dunno. Consider that an FA goalie would cost big bucks too, so how much are we saving really?

You're probably saving about $3 million or more if Murray wants a big cap hit, which is significant enough where you have to consider the option. You'd be looking at someone like Markstrom, Greiss or Halak in free agency to be a platoon goalie with Jarry, and I can't imagine that would cost much more than $5 million.

I'm also not sure he's an "average" goalie. Here are his save percentage finishes from 2016-17 to now. The filter I used was goalies in this report I ran had to have started at least 49 games in each of the seasons(as that is around what MM started). So, with that in mind, here are his finishes:

2016-17: 4th
2017-18: 19th
2018-19: 3rd

You can say I cherrypicked those numbers if you want but most any starter is going to start at least around 49 games like MM did, so I think it was a fair report to use. Those numbers don't seem to suggest he's average. If anything, they suggest he's elite apart from one bad season, but that one bad season is sandwiched between two very good ones.

Make that games played requirement 40 games and Murray falls to 8th, because Bishop (46 games), Lehner (46 games), Greiss (43 games), Khudobin (41 games) and Halak (40 games) all had a save% better than Murray's .919 last year and played in that many games. Make it 30 games and you add Campbell and Binnington. So yes, I will say that's a cherrypicked size

I also don't think just mentioning a goalie's rank is that accurate. Murray is 3rd in the sample you're looking at, but the difference between #2 and #3 is the same as the difference between #3 and #12. If you lower the games played requirements to 45, the difference between Bishop (#1) and Murray (#8) is the same as the difference between Murray and Craig Anderson (#32). Saying "Murray is essentially tied in save% with Price, Rinne, Andersen and Gibson" is a more accurate representation than "Murray is 3rd in save% among players with 50 or more starts".

I think Murray falls between the 9th best and 12th best goalie in the NHL. I think Bobrovsky, Price, Vasilevskiy, Gibson, Rask, Rinne, Bishop and Andersen (he's Murray if Murray had 5 years of what he was last year) are all definitely better, and I think Fleury, Holtby, Murray and Dubnyk (super underrated IMO) fall in the 9-12 range. To me, that is not elite. Murray may have been better Bobrovsky, Price or Rinne in any given season, but he's not established as being a better goalie. Murray is above average, but he's like 10th best in the league, not "let's give him a blank check" good.

 

[Andy99]

For me Murray is so inconsistent that it’s frustrating...he could be a top echelon goalie, and he plays like it sometimes, and then other games he loses focus or position or confidence or whatever you want to call it, and he lets in weak *** goals often at the wrong time—too many for someone who can be as good as he is...a lot of times this year he’s been playing deep in the net and then other games he looks very confident...if he was consistent in the way he played, and was consistently healthy, I’d have no problem paying him a lot of money...he’s maddening to me because of the wide variation in the levels of his play...really, if the Pens can’t re-sign him on a good deal for the team, I’d endorse trading him...I do think as someone else suggested that the goaltending play would not suffer if we signed Lehner for example and kept Jarry and that would likely be less than what it’d take to re-sign Murray...

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

For me Murray is so inconsistent that it’s frustrating...he could be a top echelon goalie, and he plays like it sometimes, and then other games he loses focus or position or confidence or whatever you want to call it, and he lets in weak *** goals often at the wrong time—too many for someone who can be as good as he is...a lot of times this year he’s been playing deep in the net and then other games he looks very confident...if he was consistent in the way he played, and was consistently healthy, I’d have no problem paying him a lot of money...he’s maddening to me because of the wide variation in the levels of his play...really, if the Pens can’t re-sign him on a good deal for the team, I’d endorse trading him...I do think as someone else suggested that the goaltending play would not suffer if we signed Lehner for example and kept Jarry and that would likely be less than what it’d take to re-sign Murray...

You mean like most young goalies? Look at most of the "elite" goalies and look at their age. I think we sometimes forget how young Murray is because he came in and had success at an age where most goalies are still either in the AHL or being groomed as a future #1 playing backup minutes.

 

[Peat]

Heh. See, I also think that, if I had to guesstimate, I'd go with Murray being roughly 10th best in the league too.

Just I think that I see the equivalent of 10th best goaltender in the league for their position banking some really big contracts (among other things). I think pretty much every goaltender in that rough top 10 would (independent of age, which messes with stuff) hit 7m comfortably if negotiating a new contract next summer and can probably add up to another 500k to 1.5m depending on form and greed. And being a RFA is less of a boon than it was. I don't want that to be true but I think it is.

*shrugs* I mean, we've been over this and I know I'm not changing minds, just I think it amusing how close a lot of opinions on Murray are but how much space for argument there still is because of the slight slant on the subject we've all got.

You mean like most young goalies? Look at most of the "elite" goalies and look at their age. I think we sometimes forget how young Murray is because he came in and had success at an age where most goalies are still either in the AHL or being groomed as a future #1 playing backup minutes.

Plenty of the older guys are pretty inconsistent too.

*pauses* I'd say most skaters too. Between the absolutely ridiculous work schedule and how prone to 'luck' the game is, it's basically an incredibly difficult league to stay consistent in imo.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Plenty of the older guys are pretty inconsistent too.

*pauses* I'd say most skaters too. Between the absolutely ridiculous work schedule and how prone to 'luck' the game is, it's basically an incredibly difficult league to stay consistent in imo.

I also think fans get caught up in emotion after a loss and mistake "inconsistent" for "had a bad game after stringing together 5 or 6 good ones". A goalie who plays 10 games, 8 of which are very good and 2 of which are below average, isn't inconsistent. Yet as fans, we only tend to remember the 2 bad ones and label him as such.

I think that's the case with Murray. His overall numbers over a large sample size usually fall in the Top 10 range among qualified starters. But often, people call him inconsistent because they remember the handful of games like last night versus Boston.

 

[Peat]

I also think fans get caught up in emotion after a loss and mistake "inconsistent" for "had a bad game after stringing together 5 or 6 good ones". A goalie who plays 10 games, 8 of which are very good and 2 of which are below average, isn't inconsistent. Yet as fans, we only tend to remember the 2 bad ones and label him as such.

I think that's the case with Murray. His overall numbers over a large sample size usually fall in the Top 10 range among qualified starters. But often, people call him inconsistent because they remember the handful of games like last night versus Boston.

Word.

Its why I like the Quality Start and Really Bad Start statistics. It's good for reminding us that a) even the best goaltenders regularly big fat smelly ones and b) sometimes goalies are just turning out good game after good game. Which Murray is. A .667 QS percentage is outstanding. And he's only got 2 RBSs, which lines up with pretty much every goalie who's played 10 or more games and has a .600 QS percentage or higher - Price has 1, Hellebuyck/Gibson/Rinne/Bishop all have 2. Kuemper's the only guy with none, he's been freakishly good. And tbh, while goaltending save percentage is a solid stat, it does have a tendency to even stuff out that maybe shouldn't be evened out. Which QS and RBS don't do. And by those stats, the split between the amount of starts Murray's giving us where all the team has to do is score a normal amount of goals, and the amount of starts where Murray's basically sold us down the river, is top end of the league right now.

 

[Andy99]

I also think fans get caught up in emotion after a loss and mistake "inconsistent" for "had a bad game after stringing together 5 or 6 good ones". A goalie who plays 10 games, 8 of which are very good and 2 of which are below average, isn't inconsistent. Yet as fans, we only tend to remember the 2 bad ones and label him as such.

I think that's the case with Murray. His overall numbers over a large sample size usually fall in the Top 10 range among qualified starters. But often, people call him inconsistent because they remember the handful of games like last night versus Boston.

could you be any more insulting? Yes, I’m blind, please lead me out of the wilderness...I watch a good deal of hockey and other teams goalies and Murray is inconsistent...his highs are high but he loses position a lot even during the same game...it’s not eight games great and then one bad one...often in the same game he’ll make great saves and then be out of position on others...not just goals but you can see him deep in his crease when the other team is buzzing and doesn’t get a goal..

yes, he’s young but if you compare him to other starting goalies in their mid-20s, he’s not soaring above those players...there are goalies both better and worse than him...he’s the very definition of average...

and that’s fine...it would be a lot better than fine if we had Sid and a Geno in their primes to make up for the average goaltending...but that doesn’t mean he should be paid a huge sum because of what he did three years ago as a backup

 

[Peat]

Actually, while I'm playing around with the QS and RBS stat on Hockey Reference...

2016-17, the kid was a metronome. Very few RBS - just over one every 12, pretty much the best rate among goalies with serious work rates over than Luongo (1 in 40, damn) and a pretty ordinary QS of .553, good for about middle of the list of goalies seeing serious work.

2017-18, Murray had a .422 QS, making him the worst starter in the league by that metric, but once again not too many RBS - only 6, so 1 in 9. That's better than a lot of the best goalies in the league that year.

2018-19, both spiked. .580 on QS, his best yet, and 8th among starters - but 10 RBS, 1 every 5. Only 6 goalies had worse.

So if people are talking about Murray no longer being as consistent then yeah, that sounds fair. I do think he's reclaimed a big measure of consistency this year though, and so far consistency at a higher level than he has done previously. Fingers crossed it continues.

 

[JTG]

Far too early to go there. Unless MM is hurt and misses a chunk of time, I don't see how we determine that when TJ is only going to get ~20-30 games by the end of this season. That's one hell of a gamble to make when you know you have a legit #1 in MM.

I don't disagree. That being said, what if Murray goes down and Jarry plays >45 games and has better stats?

This is something that could legitimately happen at any time with Murray.

 

[Peat]

could you be any more insulting? Yes, I’m blind, please lead me out of the wilderness...I watch a good deal of hockey and other teams goalies and Murray is inconsistent...his highs are high but he loses position a lot even during the same game...it’s not eight games great and then one bad one...often in the same game he’ll make great saves and then be out of position on others...not just goals but you can see him deep in his crease when the other team is buzzing and doesn’t get a goal..

yes, he’s young but if you compare him to other starting goalies in their mid-20s, he’s not soaring above those players...there are goalies both better and worse than him...he’s the very definition of average...

and that’s fine...it would be a lot better than fine if we had Sid and a Geno in their primes to make up for the average goaltending...but that doesn’t mean he should be paid a huge sum because of what he did three years ago as a backup

That's like complaining about a Bugatti Veyron because its not a Bugatti Chiron. The Veyron is still fast and Murray is still flying very high. He only has three true peers in the NHL, guys who are proven starters in their mid-2os; Gibson, Vasilevskiy and Hellebuyck. Which shows just how rare it is to begin with.

And while there are both goalies better and worse than him, there's a lot, lot more of the latter. Which is why he'll be getting paid a huge sum (I mean, even the low end estimates are huge sums). Not because of what he did three years ago. But because last season he established he should still be treated as a top 10 starter in this league minimum.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Heh. See, I also think that, if I had to guesstimate, I'd go with Murray being roughly 10th best in the league too.

Just I think that I see the equivalent of 10th best goaltender in the league for their position banking some really big contracts (among other things). I think pretty much every goaltender in that rough top 10 would (independent of age, which messes with stuff) hit 7m comfortably if negotiating a new contract next summer and can probably add up to another 500k to 1.5m depending on form and greed. And being a RFA is less of a boon than it was. I don't want that to be true but I think it is.

*shrugs* I mean, we've been over this and I know I'm not changing minds, just I think it amusing how close a lot of opinions on Murray are but how much space for argument there still is because of the slight slant on the subject we've all got.

I feel like the issue here is that Fleury signed a $7 million AAV deal last off-season (as in off-season of 2018), so it's hard to justify Murray getting a ton more when Fleury's making $7 million. And yes, I think Fleury is the best comparison you can use for Murray. They're very comparable talent-wise, have put up pretty similar numbers in recent years and both have a resume mostly filled with team accomplishments.

For comparison, since the start of the 2016-2017 season, here are their stats:

Fleury: 158 games, 90-47-17 with a .917 save% and a .575 QS%
Murray: 160 games, 90-43-14 with a .917 save% and .532 QS%

 

[Andy99]

Actually, while I'm playing around with the QS and RBS stat on Hockey Reference...

2016-17, the kid was a metronome. Very few RBS - just over one every 12, pretty much the best rate among goalies with serious work rates over than Luongo (1 in 40, damn) and a pretty ordinary QS of .553, good for about middle of the list of goalies seeing serious work.

2017-18, Murray had a .422 QS, making him the worst starter in the league by that metric, but once again not too many RBS - only 6, so 1 in 9. That's better than a lot of the best goalies in the league that year.

2018-19, both spiked. .580 on QS, his best yet, and 8th among starters - but 10 RBS, 1 every 5. Only 6 goalies had worse.

So if people are talking about Murray no longer being as consistent then yeah, that sounds fair. I do think he's reclaimed a big measure of consistency this year though, and so far consistency at a higher level than he has done previously. Fingers crossed it continues.

I’ll wait to see him in March and beyond, if there is a beyond...it still troubles me that he’s alternated good and bad years so far...if he can stay healthy and keep a .920 save% or so, I’d feel a lot better paying him $7+ mil

 

[SprootsMasterFlex]

Penguins Trade Talk: Pens Looking at Minnesota, Again

 

[JTG]

My two targets would be Gallagher and Zucker. I think either guy would be dynamite here. There are a few guys out there right now that I think would look awesome here. Chris Kreider is another one.

 

[Andy99]

Penguins Trade Talk: Pens Looking at Minnesota, Again

has this guy been right more than one random time? I don’t see why we’d pursue another less talented Conor Sheary in Fiala...

 

[DeadPuckEra]

This whole “youth and speed” thing is great but it’s irrelevant if you’re going to fill the line up with youthful - speedy 3rd liners.

Sure you’ll be hard to play against, but contenders will wipe their ass with you come playoff time.

We need some youthful, speedy 30 goal scorers. Not more projects OR “maybe he’ll catch fire playing with Malkin” etc.

We, myself included, and a large portion of this fan base need to get over the whole “change of scenery” “Crosby or Malkin will elevate player x” “they will thrive here” mentality.

We had a few players turn over a new leaf here in the last decade and we’ve somehow adopted the mentality that Pittsburgh is some kind of sure bet rehabilitation program for underachievers to find their way.

It’s just not reality and it’s not smart business. Unfortunately our GM perpetuates this mentality as well. Looking at a good amount of his trades and a few UFA signings... He also needs to wake up to the fact that Crosby and Malkin aren’t fixing anyone, and Justin Schultz was a 1/10 scenario of a player being a product of a bad environment and not severely flawed.

His whole schtick is continually throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks. And most of what he’s throwing is indeed shit. If we are honestly still “going for it” - Then actually go for it. Stop trying to acquire average, or under performing players and hope they rewrite their destiny because they play for the prestigious, family oriented, good guy, Pittsburgh Penguins.

 

[Andy99]

This whole “youth and speed” thing is great but it’s irrelevant if you’re going to fill the line up with youthful - speedy 3rd liners.

Sure you’ll be hard to play against, but contenders will wipe their ass with you come playoff time.

Exactly...what we really need is the benefit we once had: Sid and G being the outstanding “goal scorers” they once were, not the playmaker version of themselves, because we really lack skilled scorers to take advantage of that regularly...we’ll be fine if they start scoring, though they seem to eschew that...

 

[WayneSid9987]

I know Fiala was really good for the Preds right up until Bortuzzo demolished his lower body/leg in that PO game.
Is it a case of him still being good on a bad/old team or has he slowed down since that surgery?

 

[Mrs Crosby's Dryer]

The good news is we only have like maybe 1 or 2 guys on the roster who will drop the gloves and stick up for teammates. I mean they’d have to be absolutely forced into it and under extreme duress, but still, we should be able to jettison he/them for a speedy non checking 3rd / new nhl 4th liner or 7th/8th/9th defense easily enough.

If we’re scouting the Wild either Mathew, Hunt, or forum darling Zucker should fit the bill.

 

[JTG]

Having some random thoughts about the team -

I like McCann as a player, but I have absolutely no idea where he fits in this lineup. Kahun should be tied to Geno for a few games. Lafferty should play some 3C and some W to see where he can fit. I'd like Marino to be given 18 mins a night and see how he fairs.

Lots of questions to be answered in the next few months.

 

[mpp9]

Having some random thoughts about the team -

I like McCann as a player, but I have absolutely no idea where he fits in this lineup. Kahun should be tied to Geno for a few games. Lafferty should play some 3C and some W to see where he can fit. I'd like Marino to be given 18 mins a night and see how he fairs.

Lots of questions to be answered in the next few months.

McCann seems like a jack of all trades type. Can move up as a third wheel in the top 6. PK. Has the two way game and enough offense to center your 3rd line for at least a stretch of time. Guys like that are valuable. Let him move around the lineup as injuries and line combinations dictate.

Moving Bjug and keeping McCann also allows you to get Lafferty at center without screwing yourself if he doesn't work there. I think I like Lafferty best at wing especially in his first season. Let him focus on using his speed.

If Letang's out awhile, I'll be very interested to see how Marino looks. So far he's defensively sound, great at evading a forechecker and making the slick pass for a clean breakout. If he can use his skating ability to start legitimately creating offense for us, we have a gem.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Ya boy is back.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Having some random thoughts about the team -

I like McCann as a player, but I have absolutely no idea where he fits in this lineup. Kahun should be tied to Geno for a few games. Lafferty should play some 3C and some W to see where he can fit. I'd like Marino to be given 18 mins a night and see how he fairs.

Lots of questions to be answered in the next few months.

The thing about McCann is that he has all the talent to be a guy that can score 30 goals in this league and be a 60pt kind of guy, but he makes Rust look consistent. The guy just has the worst consistency and it's why I liked him for the bottom 6, not the top 6, where he's been mostly glued to on this team because this coaching staff has a thing for speed even when it doesn't fit with the talent.

I would actually sit McCann a game or two to knock some sense into him, the guy should be better than this. I get he was rushed, but he's like 23yrs old, he is young enough to reset some of those bad habits.