The great Kadri vs Kerfoot debate thread.

[deletethis]

This one might get ugly. My dislike for Kerfoot is admittedly disproportionate to his faults. He's not entirely terrible. He's got some skill and good legs but he's overpaid and an odd combination of dirty and timid. I think he's more suited for the wing and an expansion team roster. After right side defensemen, my number 2 wish list item for this summer is a better 3rd line center to do some of the defensive end heavy lifting.

 

[666]

You don't have to defend anything, this is true of course.

BTW, McDavid ranks 386th in the NHL in xGF%. But hey, if you feel that this is one of "best stats we have at our disposal" for player evaluation, you're certainly entitled to that opinion. And i'm entitled to have the opinion that if you think this stat is a useful tool for player evaluation (never mind among "the best stats we have") then it's difficult to take seriously anything you have to say about statistical analysis.

I wish I had posted this.

 

[zeke]

You don't have to defend anything, this is true of course.

BTW, McDavid ranks 386th in the NHL in xGF%. But hey, if you feel that this is one of "best stats we have at our disposal" for player evaluation, you're certainly entitled to that opinion. And i'm entitled to have the opinion that if you think this stat is a useful tool for player evaluation (never mind among "the best stats we have") then it's difficult to take seriously anything you have to say about statistical analysis.

Hmm, well it seems you want to have this debate.

There is loads of easily available research and analysis on this topic, which goes a wee bit more in depth than your analysis there. Why do you think the issue here is whether you take those of us who use xgf seriously, rather than us taking someone like you ignoring it seriously?

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I would like to Edit - Undo this trade but it made a lot of sense at the time

 

[Once]

This one might get ugly. My dislike for Kerfoot is admittedly disproportionate to his faults. He's not entirely terrible. He's got some skill and good legs but he's overpaid and an odd combination of dirty and timid. I think he's more suited for the wing and an expansion team roster. After right side defensemen, my number 2 wish list item for this summer is a better 3rd line center to do some of the defensive end heavy lifting.

I don’t mind kerf but he takes the most careless penalties. I don’t recall any dirty play besides the Johnson hit, but that didn’t seem all that intentional relative to some questionable hits on Dermott. I do think he runs his mouth - seems like players target him for one reason or another. He’s a fine winger though and a luxury for our bottom 6, but I’d rather spend that cap on a Cirelli-lite 3c.

 

[deletethis]

A lot of us would reverse the Kadri trade if we could but let's face it Dubas would have gotten a share of criticism if he hadn't dealt Kadri after his 2nd suspension.

 

[Bomber0104]

A lot of us would reverse the Kadri trade if we could but let's face it Dubas would have gotten a share of criticism if he hadn't dealt Kadri after his 2nd suspension.

I guess Washington made a huge mistake not trading Tom Wilson?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I do miss Kadri, but I don't have the long term adoration for him that some have here. I don't love the trade, but I also don't think it will be the reason we fail if we don't win the cup.

First and foremost, we need Andy to at least be average.
Secondly, we need our PK to be elite or close to it.
Thirdly, we need some offence from our non-key guys who will be receiving better matchups and less attention.
Finally, we need our PP to be a strength, not just middling.

To me, those are the things that determine this teams success, descending from most important to least.

Same here ... only will add that what we lost is the opportunity cost of not getting a defensive minded defender which we still need another or 2

 

[Gary Nylund]

Hmm, well it seems you want to have this debate.

There is loads of easily available research and analysis on this topic, which goes a wee bit more in depth than your analysis there. Why do you think the issue here is whether you take those of us who use xgf seriously, rather than us taking someone like you ignoring it seriously?

Why Zeke, I don't think there's any issue here at all. People are free to think whatever they like, you and me included.

As far as debate goes, I think I've made it clear what I think about xgf% and why I think it. I also doubt that any amount of "in depth analysis" can refute what I had to say but if the analysis exists and you find it valuable, I'm happy for you.

 

[deletethis]

I guess Washington made a huge mistake not trading Tom Wilson?

There's no bigger Kadri fan here than me. I never would have traded him. I'd have given him a pat on the back and told him that he did nothing wrong but that he has to take into account that there's a thumb on the scale against the Leafs. What I think has no bearing on the reality that the GM would have been criticized fairly significantly in the media and elsewhere for not trading the player.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I would like to Edit - Undo this trade but it made a lot of sense at the time

Agree 100%. And this is the reason I don't like using hindsight to evaluate trades. You make the best decision you can with the information you have at the time and then you move forward knowing that it is impossible for every move you make to look good both now, and in the future.

 

[Merrrlin]

I guess Washington made a huge mistake not trading Tom Wilson?

Comparing Wilson and Kadri is pretty hilarious.

 

[Buds17]

Kerfoot having just had the worst season of his NHL career thus far obviously isn't going to be helpful to the Leaf cause. That said, there still is an extra season more at 1M per less left on his contract in comparison. Even if he isn't necessarily the better player of the two, Kerfoot could still somehow be a better fit in that respect for the 3C role here in the long run.

 

[zeke]

I also doubt that any amount of "in depth analysis" can refute what I had to say

You don't actually doubt that your one-click leaderboard search might not actually disprove all stats, of course.

But I understand that for many like yourself you don't want to bother with it, and would rather just argue back and forth based on personal eye tests. Which is fine. I know you guys aren't actually looking to be convinced, which is why we don't really have to have thia discussion.

But here's the rub - you guys jumping up and down and screaming "stats schmats" won't actually ever stop us from using them.

 

[Bomber0104]

Comparing Wilson and Kadri is pretty hilarious.

You're right.

Wilson's suspensions were way worse than Kadri's.

Yet not only did Washington not trade Wilson away, they re-signed him long-term and promoted him up the depth chart.

 

[nsleaf]

You're right.

Wilson's suspensions were way worse than Kadri's.

Yet not only did Washington not trade Wilson away, they re-signed him long-term and promoted him up the depth chart.

Yea, but Wilson is a tough intimidating player and NK is not.

 

[deletethis]

You're right.

Wilson's suspensions were way worse than Kadri's.

Yet not only did Washington not trade Wilson away, they re-signed him long-term and promoted him up the depth chart.

Yeah, they're not comparable. Wilson's recklessly running around at opponents every night. Kadri just reserves it for certain games, otherwise he's a quality player. Can you imagine the negative publicity against Tom Wilson if he ever played for his home town team? He wouldn't last a season here as he'd get painted as the worst human being ever.

 

[Guided by Veseys]

Kadri is the man and if they could have just tried him on the wing with Tavares who knows how dominant this team could have been. Should have kept him.

I have a hunch tho that shanahan wanted him gone and Dubas just had to do what he could. Dubas doesn’t seem like a guy who just trades players that don’t want to leave; he comes across as pretty empathetic of his players feelings.

Shanny and Kadri had their special relationship over the years and that second suspension sealed the deal.
So in short. I do think Dubas was just following orders as best he could.
Just a hunch tho.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You don't actually doubt that your one-click leaderboard search might not actually disprove all stats, of course.

Your post using xgf% to evaluate Kadri wasn't exactly brimming with context. Or to put it another way, you're the one who seems to think that the stat should stand on it's own so a quick glance at a "one-click leaderboard" was all that was required to see that this stat that you're so fond of is useless.

But I understand that for many like yourself you don't want to bother with it, and would rather just argue back and forth based on personal eye tests. Which is fine. I know you guys aren't actually looking to be convinced, which is why we don't really have to have thia discussion.

But here's the rub - you guys jumping up and down and screaming "stats schmats" won't actually ever stop us from using them.

If you have something to explain how a stat that has McDavid not cracking the top 300 is among the "most valuable stats" we have for player evaluation, I'm all ears. Admit it Zeke, saying I don't want to bother with it is your way of saying you got nothing.

You spend sooooooooooooooooooooo much time posting stats here. If you don't want to explain why something that seems so useless is in fact useful, that's your call but if people don't take your statistical carpet combs seriously, you have no one to blame but yourself.

 

[zeke]

Your post using xgf% to evaluate Kadri wasn't exactly brimming with context. Or to put it another way, you're the one who seems to think that the stat should stand on it's own so a quick glance at a "one-click leaderboard" was all that was required to see that this stat that you're so fond of as being useless.
.

Go re-read it. It was full of context. It talked about quality of competition and line deployment and quality of linemates and shooting percentages and more, every step of the way.

 

[zeke]

If you have something to explain how a stat that has McDavid not cracking the top 300 is among the "most valuable stats" we have for player evaluation, I'm all ears. Admit it Zeke, saying I don't want to bother with it is your way of saying you got nothing.
.

I know you want to place a burden of proof on me, but I don't actually care to prove something on which there is so much research and analysis available already that you obviously don't want to listen to.

The short answer to your mcdavid question is: 1. McDavid faces super elite quality of competition and usage and minutes: 2. The oilers as a team are terrible posession wise and are surviving on special teams this year: and 3. McDavid has been disaster defensively this year, and this is actually an interesting development - because his relative possession rates were always super elite but have started to slack the last couple years. Interesting to see whether he's losing some of his speed already, or whether he's just taken his foot off the gas a bit for whatever reason. Either way it is starting to look like he's cheating a bit out there more than he used to.

Oh and 4 - you're likely including a ton of tiny sample players whose numbers won't mean much.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Go re-read it. It was full of context. It talked about quality of competition and line deployment and quality of linemates and shooting percentages and more, every step of the way.

These were the stats you were using:

16-17 (26): 13:32, 52.7xgf% (+2.8rel), 2.05p/60 (8.7oish%) - PP 2:12, 5.69p60 (15.0oish%)

p/60 is somewhat useful IMO. Note the word "somewhat". Same goes for ooish%.

xgf% however, nope. I've already explained why I find your stance that xgf% if among the "most useful" stats we have to be laughable. And you adding p/60 and oish% next to it doesn't change that fact one bit.

The problem with stats is that some are more useful than others and some are just useless. And no matter what the stat (or several stats) combined is that it's always possible to add more stats to provide more context and there will always be things that stats don't show. And this xgf% appears to be just useless.

But go ahead, tell us why a stat that doesn't have McDavid in the top 300 should be taken seriously? Take all the time you need.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I know you want to place a burden of proof on me, but I don't actually care to prove something on which there is so much research and analysis available already that you obviously don't want to listen to.

You keep saying that Zeke and it's getting old.

I know you want to place a burden of proof on me, but I don't actually care to prove something on which there is so much research and analysis available already that you obviously don't want to listen to.

The short answer to your mcdavid question is: 1. McDavid faces super elite quality of competition and usage and minutes: 2. The oilers as a team are terrible posession wise and are surviving on special teams this year: and 3. McDavid has been disaster defensively this year, and this is actually an interesting development - because his relative possession rates were always super elite but have started to slack the last couple years. Interesting to see whether he's losing some of his speed already, or whether he's just taken his foot off the gas a bit for whatever reason. Either way it is starting to look like he's cheating a bit out there more than he used to.

So in other words, the stat is useless if you play for a bad team? Careful now because McDavid isn't the only guy who's so low on this list, I mentioned Crosby earlier as well or does his team suck as well? And there are MANY others. Tomas Tatar is 5th in the NHL, is it because the team he plays for is so good that he ranks 300+ places ahead of McDavid?

Or wait, are you saying that McDavid's ranking is fair because "he's cheating a bit"?

 

[zeke]

These were the stats you were using:

16-17 (26): 13:32, 52.7xgf% (+2.8rel), 2.05p/60 (8.7oish%) - PP 2:12, 5.69p60 (15.0oish%)

Yep, so let's see how much context I put in there:

1. TOI - gives us context as to how much he was used and what kind of role he was used in
2. xGF% - gives us an idea of whether his team created more effective offense thN they allowed with him on the ice, factoring in shot attempt numbers, type, and distance.
3. Rel - compares him to the team as a whole, in order to filter out team effects on his individual performance
4. P60 - puts his offense in the context of minutes, so we don't confuse a change in ice time with a change in actual effectiveness
5. Oish% - gives us an idea of whether that production rate was the result of overall impact, or just the result of better finishing rate
6. PP - separates different offensive situations so we can compare apples to apples

On top of that, when translating the stats into words, I referred to his lines, deployment, usage, teammates, team quality, and quality of competition at every step.

So yes, a whole crapload of context I included - and way way way more context than any of the eye test arguments here have used. Like not even close.

p/60 is somewhat useful IMO. Note the word "somewhat". Same goes for ooish%.

xgf% however, nope. I've already explained why I find your stance that xgf% if among the "most useful" stats we have to be laughable. And you adding p/60 and oish% next to it doesn't change that fact one bit.

The problem with stats is that some are more useful than others and some are just useless. And no matter what the stat (or several stats) combined is that it's always possible to add more stats to provide more context and there will always be things that stats don't show. And this xgf% appears to be just useless.

But go ahead, tell us why a stat that doesn't have McDavid in the top 300 should be taken seriously? Take all the time you need.

Honest question with literally no disrespect intended - why should we care about your arbitrary and deliberately uninformed opinion as to which of these stats are useful?

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

A Kadri-JT-Nylander line would have been really cool to see. While Babcock was coach, I would have rather had Kadri than Kerfoot and Barrie. Once Keefe took over and Barrie started playing a better the deal started to even out for me. We don't have a lot of high quality D, especially those that are right handed so at the end of the day I'm ok with the deal. I'd be equally ok if we kept Kadri too.