Injury Report: The facts are in on Lost man games

[Jetfaninflorida]

That's a simplistic view of how injuries affect performance. For one, injured players are often not in shape or not fully up to speed until some time after they return from injury. Also, some players are playing sub-par with injuries before they decide to go on the injury list to get things sorted out (like Enstrom before the end of the season when he finally sat out to get injuries dealt with). Moreover, during a very hectic schedule, injuries put more wear and tear on the remaining top players, reducing their effectiveness for prolonged periods of time. Beyond that, there is the natural lack of rhythm and consistency that a team has with players going in and out of the line-up.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, like injured players performance is affected for a period of time when they come back into the lineup, wear and tear etc. But it is also very simplistic to say that we would have been in the playoffs if we didn't have so many injuries.

Of course anyone can say that we could/should/would have had more points if we had less injuries. So could fans of other teams. But then if you look closer at how our team performed with injuries AND with our schedule from hell, there isn't much difference from month to month when compared to when we were healthy and had a light schedule. But then, at the end of the year when we went 7 and 0 we had some significant injuries. But if I recall, our goaltending was better over that stretch. So to me, I would key in more on the goaltending in that situation. If we had better goaltending earlier in the year, maybe that would have gotten us closer to the playoffs. Why didn't our GM do something about goaltending like other teams that did address goaltending and then got into the playoffs.

I am not saying anything other than: I don't see the direct correlation between Winnipeg Jets injuries and that we would have made the playoffs. That's all I am saying. If the data (not an opinion) showing that direct correlation exists, I would really enjoy seeing it. It is a pure what if, so you can believe it if you want. I just don't because I don't see the correlation.

My quick and dirty analysis of looking at our record when we had significant injuries and when we didn't seems reasonable to me.

Another point. Statisticians will say that our man games lost to injury should return to the norm over time. What that means is that we should see less injuries compared to other teams in the next some number of years. Woo Hoo!

I wish we had more to talk about these days other than why we aren't in the playoffs. It is such a bummer to be out of the playoffs.

GJG!

 

[Whileee]

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, like injured players performance is affected for a period of time when they come back into the lineup, wear and tear etc. But it is also very simplistic to say that we would have been in the playoffs if we didn't have so many injuries.

Of course anyone can say that we could/should/would have had more points if we had less injuries. So could fans of other teams. But then if you look closer at how our team performed with injuries AND with our schedule from hell, there isn't much difference from month to month when compared to when we were healthy and had a light schedule. But then, at the end of the year when we went 7 and 0 we had some significant injuries. But if I recall, our goaltending was better over that stretch. So to me, I would key in more on the goaltending in that situation. If we had better goaltending earlier in the year, maybe that would have gotten us closer to the playoffs. Why didn't our GM do something about goaltending like other teams that did address goaltending and then got into the playoffs.

I am not saying anything other than: I don't see the direct correlation between Winnipeg Jets injuries and that we would have made the playoffs. That's all I am saying. If the data (not an opinion) showing that direct correlation exists, I would really enjoy seeing it. It is a pure what if, so you can believe it if you want. I just don't because I don't see the correlation.

My quick and dirty analysis of looking at our record when we had significant injuries and when we didn't seems reasonable to me.

Another point. Statisticians will say that our man games lost to injury should return to the norm over time. What that means is that we should see less injuries compared to other teams in the next some number of years. Woo Hoo!

I wish we had more to talk about these days other than why we aren't in the playoffs. It is such a bummer to be out of the playoffs.

GJG!

There is plenty of statistical evidence to show that better players improve team performance. It's logical that having better players out of the line-up impacts results.

There is a clear correlation between injuries and team points and shot metrics, such that teams with more injuries perform worse. I've posted graphs before.

Do you think injuries affected Tampa Bay's performance? There is no obvious correlation between injuries and performance on an individual game basis, but would you agree that their overall performance was affected? What about Dallas? Why would the Jets be the only team that isn't affected by injuries?

Look at this site for more details... The graph looks similar every season.

http://nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.ca/2015/10/201516-team-injury-breakdowns.html?m=1

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

There is plenty of statistical evidence to show that better players improve team performance. It's logical that having better players out of the line-up impacts results.

There is a clear correlation between injuries and team points and shot metrics, such that teams with more injuries perform worse. I've posted graphs before.

Do you think injuries affected Tampa Bay's performance? There is no obvious correlation between injuries and performance on an individual game basis, but would you agree that their overall performance was affected? What about Dallas? Why would the Jets be the only team that isn't affected by injuries?

Look at this site for more details... The graph looks similar every season.

http://nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.ca/2015/10/201516-team-injury-breakdowns.html?m=1

Injuries affect a team performance. Also affecting team performance would be a GM not taking appropriate steps to mitigate key injuries or lineup gaps like LHD. Also affecting team performance would be a GM not taking appropriate steps to mitigate league worst or near league worst goaltending. Also affecting team performance would be special teams coaching - like waiting until February to put 'more puck movement' into an underachieving power play, or putting Stu out for every penalty kill when he is in a game. Or deciding that the 1st powerplay Must operate from the right side of the ice so Laine can't play on the 1st powerplay unit (I think that was the explanation from Maurice).

My comments on this post were specific to the original idea that directly ties our playoff miss to our injuries. I don't see it. A factor among other factors - goaltending is a bigger factor for me. Now if our record was reflective of our injuries, like we were worse when we had injury spikes, or injury spikes combined with difficult schedule, I would probably be more convinced about injuries as the cause of our woes. But our record doesn't really show that. Not looking on a per game basis, but on a cluster of games basis.

Regarding the bolded, I would argue that there is no obvious correlation between < insert anything here > and performance on an individual game basis. Injuries included. But if something is to have an effect on performance at all, you would expect it to show up in clusters of games / larger sample size than individual game. An injuries link to Jets team performance did not appear to show up in the clusters of games that I looked at. Maybe I picked the wrong clusters of games? In fact, we had our best team performance near the end of the season, where there is a pretty steep injury curve for the Jets in the website you quoted / linked. Interestingly, we had better goaltending during that stretch. So maybe you can see why I am convinced that goaltending was a bigger factor for us than injuries. Not that injuries isn't a factor, but for me goaltending and coaching is a bigger factor for us this year.

 

[Whileee]

Injuries affect a team performance. Also affecting team performance would be a GM not taking appropriate steps to mitigate key injuries or lineup gaps like LHD. Also affecting team performance would be a GM not taking appropriate steps to mitigate league worst or near league worst goaltending. Also affecting team performance would be special teams coaching - like waiting until February to put 'more puck movement' into an underachieving power play, or putting Stu out for every penalty kill when he is in a game. Or deciding that the 1st powerplay Must operate from the right side of the ice so Laine can't play on the 1st powerplay unit (I think that was the explanation from Maurice).

My comments on this post were specific to the original idea that directly ties our playoff miss to our injuries. I don't see it. A factor among other factors - goaltending is a bigger factor for me. Now if our record was reflective of our injuries, like we were worse when we had injury spikes, or injury spikes combined with difficult schedule, I would probably be more convinced about injuries as the cause of our woes. But our record doesn't really show that. Not looking on a per game basis, but on a cluster of games basis.

Regarding the bolded, I would argue that there is no obvious correlation between < insert anything here > and performance on an individual game basis. Injuries included. But if something is to have an effect on performance at all, you would expect it to show up in clusters of games / larger sample size than individual game. An injuries link to Jets team performance did not appear to show up in the clusters of games that I looked at. Maybe I picked the wrong clusters of games? In fact, we had our best team performance near the end of the season, where there is a pretty steep injury curve for the Jets in the website you quoted / linked. Interestingly, we had better goaltending during that stretch. So maybe you can see why I am convinced that goaltending was a bigger factor for us than injuries. Not that injuries isn't a factor, but for me goaltending and coaching is a bigger factor for us this year.

I completely agree that goaltending and other factors (I would point particularly to penalty differential and special teams) played a big role in the Jets' performance this season, but with an injury burden as high as the Jets had I think it's rational to suggest that they might have made the playoffs with fewer injuries. For one thing, fewer injuries would have covered for the lack of depth on D. No team can really put together a strong D for a period of time when they have the number of injuries that the Jets have had. As an analogy, take out Rielly for 20 games and Zaitsev or Gardiner for the entire season and do you think the Leafs make the playoffs? Babcock doesn't think so.

The Jets need to solve the goaltending issue, because Hellebuyck didn't carry the mail. They need an upgrade on D, but I don't think that's as pressing if they are healthier next year, with the addition of Poolman.

 

[MoreMorrissey]

Buff had an off year while playing more than any player in the league, you'd have to figure that with a more evenly distributed load on the back end with a healthy D Buff plays more effectively. Depth helps with that, but the Jets' depth isn't exposed without all the injuries/Trouba holdout/Enstrom's decline and or personal issues. That's partially on management for not acquiring depth and coaching for playing Buff that much (among other things) but again, those things aren't exposed without the injuries.

This, we only have one capable LHD in Morrissey and Byfuglien was severely overworked despite the fact that he is a defensive liability at the best of times. Need shutdown guys that can transition to the forwards like a Pittsburgh system seeing as we have significant speed in a lot of places up front.