How about Giroux?
He is the most comparable player to Drouin.
Giroux had 36 points in 38 AHL games so pretty much a ppg. Don't think teams would have sell their farm for him when he was 20 and playing in the AHL though.
BTW my point is not to say Drouin is not good or that there's no player who spent time in the AHL and became star players after. It's not even to say his value will be reduced if he doesn't dominate the AHL. I really don't know what his value might be if TB waits too much and he doesn't do good in the AHL.
It's just i don't think they can wait and wait and wait and wait and wait like we did with Tinordi. If they are looking to trade him i think it must be before next season.
Most star players don't play in the AHL and if they do they don't spend lot of time their and dominate the league day 1. There's exceptions of course but you don't sell your farm or give a very good roster player with a good contract hoping to land one of the exception.
The sample size is too small and i'm sure Drouin will start to do lot of points once he will adjust to the AHL. But if Yzerman absolutely wants to trade him if he waits too much he might be playing a dangerous game. Not all 3rd overall draft picks translate to the NHL. A fair share don't and remains good players but nothing more. The longer he waits with him in the AHL the more questions other DGs will ask. Not about Drouin skills but attitude.