@Melvin, is it just me or does your model seem to undervalue NCAA players? For example, your model would catch those players who put up big numbers in lower level leagues but would miss on Hughes who put up some respectable totals in the NCAA.
Yeah, this has come up a few times so there is probably something to it. But to be honest, there have not been a TON of point producing players drafted from the NCAA since 2010. I think some people would be surprised at how short the list is. Here are the top NCAA draft-eligible 18 year old players in P/GP over the last decade:
Player | Conference | GP | P | |
Jack Eichel | H-East | 40 | 71 | 1.78 |
Luke Kunin | Big 10 | 34 | 32 | 0.94 |
Tage Thompson | H-East | 36 | 32 | 0.89 |
Quinn Hughes | Big 10 | 36 | 29 | 0.81 |
Brady Tkachuk | H-East | 40 | 31 | 0.78 |
Zach Werenski | Big 10 | 35 | 25 | 0.71 |
Charlie McAvoy | H-East | 37 | 25 | 0.68 |
Adam Clendening | H-East | 39 | 26 | 0.67 |
Noah Hanifin | H-East | 37 | 23 | 0.62 |
Matthew Nieto | H-East | 39 | 23 | 0.59 |
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As for Hughes, I wouldn't say that it "missed" on Hughes, exactly, just that he was behind Evan Bouchard. There were 4 D that year that everyone was talking about (aside from Dahlin,) and seemingly everyone had them in a different order: Bouchard, Hughes, Dobson, Boqvist. That was the order the potato had. Hughes was somewhere in the top 15. I don't consider it a huge miss. Bouchard had monster numbers in his draft year.
And anyway, the current ranking has Kent Johnson quite high and could very well be the potato's pick for the Canucks if Eklund is taken.