The Challenge, Should You Choose To Accept It - Build Next Year's Team

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Carrick is a possibility but I was thinking more along the lines of McKeown....Murphy definitely.

Ok. I don't see them moving both of those guys as Peters said he likes having 3 RD/3LD. Also, I don't view McKeown as a more ripened defensive prospect since he's got zero professional (AHL or NHL) time under his belt.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Carrick is a possibility but I was thinking more along the lines of McKeown....Murphy definitely.

One clarification on my semantics - "most likely" was in reference to the group of UFAs I mentioned. As in...of XYXYXY, YYY would the most likely members of that set to be moved.

Wasn't that long ago I suggested trading a young dman for a forward and was told that trading a young dman for another good young asset was being too cute, McKeown being specifically mentioned as one that shouldn't be traded. I even mentioned the possibility of drafting one of the highly regarded young dmen in the draft as a replacement should it come to this. How quickly things can change.

 

[Penaltykiller17]

Current Roster/Salary for next season

Forwards:

Jordan Staal $6,000,000
Jeff Skinner $5,725,000
Elias Lindholm $2,750,000
Jay McClement $1,200,000
Andrej Nestrasil $0,912,000
Phil Di Giuseppe $0,597,000
Alex Semin $2,333,000

Total $19,542,000

Defensemen

James Wisniewski $5,500,000
Justin Faulk $4,833,000
Ron Hainsey $2,833,000
Noah Hanifin $1,775,000
Brett Pesce $0,753,000
Jaccob Slavin $0,701,000

total $16,329,000

Goaltending

Eddie Lack $2,750,000

overall cap hit $36,288,000



Players to Re-sign:

Eric Staal @ 3yrs/$5,000,000
Kris Versteeg @ 3yrs/$4,000,000
Victor Rask @ 3yrs/$2,750,000
Joakim Nordstrom @ 3yrs/$1,775,000
Haydn Fleury $1,744,000

Players to exit:

Ron Hainsey $2,833,000

New Overall Cap Hit $51,050,000

New Players to Sign

My initial thoughts were to make a run at Stamkos, but besides the obvious unlikelihood of Carolina enticing him to come here, I don't think the budget's there for it. However, with no current player I can see moving into a top 3 role, combined with no one in the farm to move into those roles, I suggest we go after a couple of UFA's.

The first should be Kyle Okposo. He's a legit top 3 winger, he's still young, and he has good size on him. My max is 5yrs @ $7mil or 7yrs @ $6mil.

Also, to fill out the top 3, I'd offer Loui Eriksson 5x5. That would solidify our top 3 for at least 3 years.

We could also use another tweener to play between the 3rd/4th line. I was thinking Michael Grabner @ 2yrs/$2.5mil. He's still relatively young, fast, and I could see him potentially playing with Jordan Staal.

Finally, the Goalie. As much as it pains me to admit it, I think GMRF will end up re-signing Ward @ 2yrs/$3.5mil. A bridge deal until we get Nedeljkovic initiated.

In addition, If i'm Carolina, i'd package Lindholm with our 1st rounder to move up in the draft and select Laine. We could put he and Aho on a line with Jordan Staal, and it would do major major damage in the east.

Also, draft Logan Brown with the L.A. pick, in addition to drafting Nathan Bastian with the pick acquired from the Eric Staal TDL trade.

Additional players:

Kyle Okposo @ 6yrs/$6,000,000
Loui Eriksson @ 5yrs/$5,000,000
Cam Ward @ 2yrs/$3,500,000
Michael Grabner @ 2yrs/$2,500,000
Sebastian Aho @ 3yrs/$1,100,000
Patrik Laine @ 3yrs/$1,750,000

Final Cap Hit $68,175,000

Eriksson/Staal/Okposo
Skinner/Rask/Versteeg
Aho/J.Staal/Laine
Nordstrom/McClement/Grabner

Slavin/Faulk
Hanifin/Wisniewski
Fleury/Pesce

Ward
Lack

Sound good?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Wasn't that long ago I suggested trading a young dman for a forward and was told that trading a young dman for another good young asset was being too cute, McKeown being specifically mentioned as one that shouldn't be traded. I even mentioned the possibility of drafting one of the highly regarded young dmen in the draft as a replacement should it come to this. How quickly things can change.

Things have changed because 1 other poster suggested it? I am still of the opinion that trading any of Pesce, Slavin, Fleury, or McKeown for a forward is not a good idea at this point (unless of course it's in a deal for a top end prospect). Keep those guys and draft the future forwards. Murphy, I've said for a while that he's probably be moved. Francis and Peters have both said they want to build from the back-end out and want to draft and develop so while I won't be shocked if they make a move like that, I'll be mildly surprised.

Will be interesting to see how the draft plays out. If BPA is a slam dunk defenseman, he probably won't be helping the Canes for a couple years so it would leave some interesting choices.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Sound good?

If "good" means very totally unrealistic, then yes, it sounds good.

Seriously, we aren't getting Laine, Erikssson, and Okposo. In fact, I'd be shocked if we got any one of them.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Things have changed because 1 other poster suggested it? I am still of the opinion that trading any of Pesce, Slavin, Fleury, or McKeown for a forward is not a good idea at this point (unless of course it's in a deal for a top end prospect). Keep those guys and draft the future forwards. Murphy, I've said for a while that he's probably be moved. Francis and Peters have both said they want to build from the back-end out and want to draft and develop so while I won't be shocked if they make a move like that, I'll be mildly surprised.

Will be interesting to see how the draft plays out. If BPA is a slam dunk defenseman, he probably won't be helping the Canes for a couple years so it would leave some interesting choices.

I was specifically responding to NotOpie's opinion from very recently when I suggested what he suggested, and he shot it down as too cute. Hence why I quoted that post. My point then was that we have the option to trade a young dman and pick one in the draft or pick one up in a trade at the deadline. NotOpie said it would be too cute to trade one. As I said then, I have no problem with keeping all the young dmen for now, but we have options should the right young asset come along.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I was specifically responding to NotOpie's opinion from very recently when I suggested what he suggested, and he shot it down as too cute.

Ah, sorry, didn't know that.

 

[Penaltykiller17]

If "good" means very totally unrealistic, then yes, it sounds good.

Seriously, we aren't getting Laine, Erikssson, and Okposo. In fact, I'd be shocked if we got any one of them.

Realistically, we ain't getting at least two, but I can legit see us landing Okposo. I doubt a top contender can afford him unless he lowers his costs. We could offer him the contract he wants, and we can offer him the top role he deserves. I would offer him anything he wants, as top 3 players don't grow on trees, and are becoming less available.

Going after Grabner would be a good and realistic idea as well.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Realistically, we ain't getting at least two, but I can legit see us landing Okposo. .

I can't

 

[bleedgreen]

Why would okposo choose us? Why would we out bid the league?

If it was reasonable, then great but he isn't coming to us for anything reasonable.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Why would okposo choose us? Why would we out bid the league?

If it was reasonable, then great but he isn't coming to us for anything reasonable.

Exactly!

 

[A Star is Burns]

Eric signing seems very unlikely at that number and term (5 for 3). I think it's only realistic to think he'll get $6 like Jordan at a minimum. While I see the logic of Okposo taking more from a worse team with more space, I don't think we're going to be ready to open up the wallet like that. I like the fit of an Okposo or Eriksson here, but I think both will get more from better teams, or at least sexier teams and places than here at this point. The other signings of RFAs and Versteeg's seem pretty realistic though, except I can't imagine Rask taking more than two years at that number. And can't imagine us moving up to get a top pick short of a lottery win of one of the top picks.

Just too many unrealistic thoughts out there. I couldn't agree more with the premise that we will maybe be in on a guy like a Purcell that's in the second tier or so of this free agency class, and probably a decent trade. I could see us being in on a Brandon Saad type trade if such presents itself from a team this offseason, or one like the ones we completed last year to get potentially undervalued guys like Versteeg and Wisniewski. We'll know a bit more after the deadline, though even then maybe not if Staal leaves, cause he could easily return.

 

[bleedgreen]

Eric isn't taking less than Jordan to anyone. Likely asking for his current aav, and with limited competition as a ufa he'd be dumb not to.

 

[Penaltykiller17]

Why would okposo choose us? Why would we out bid the league?

If it was reasonable, then great but he isn't coming to us for anything reasonable.

To answer your 1st question, he'd choose us because we're a young team on the rise. Him coming here would help bolster the sluggish and inconsistent offense. Also, most of the top teams are at the cap, and already have their core's intact.

To answer your second question, Carolina could afford to gamble on Okposo. I wouldn't want some insane deal, but we could at least offer him what we gave Semin. He could help carry us through our sluggish starts, and put us in a better position for the playoffs. Also, this team will not be a consistent playoff team until we can produce a top line, and we don't currently have players with elite level skill, and they don't become available very often in UFA.

I just don't want to look back 3 years from now seeing other teams improve, while we're still singing our should've would've could'ves.

 

[Hulkacaniac]

To answer your 1st question, he'd choose us because we're a young team on the rise. Him coming here would help bolster the sluggish and inconsistent offense. Also, most of the top teams are at the cap, and already have their core's intact.

To answer your second question, Carolina could afford to gamble on Okposo. I wouldn't want some insane deal, but we could at least offer him what we gave Semin. He could help carry us through our sluggish starts, and put us in a better position for the playoffs. Also, this team will not be a consistent playoff team until we can produce a top line, and we don't currently have players with elite level skill, and they don't become available very often in UFA.

I just don't want to look back 3 years from now seeing other teams improve, while we're still singing our should've would've could'ves.

I don't understand this thinking that a ufa signing is going to make or break a team's long term success. There's no guarantee it will even work out. Build through the draft and develop prospects into a team. I think a few years down the road when we're at or close to contention is when we should talk about ufa splashes.

Something I thought about is what the future looks like at center. They've said they want to move lindholm to the middle so I wonder what happens if eric gets re-signed

 

[NotOpie]

Ok. I don't see them moving both of those guys as Peters said he likes having 3 RD/3LD. Also, I don't view McKeown as a more ripened defensive prospect since he's got zero professional (AHL or NHL) time under his belt.

BBA, I probably wasn't as clear as I should have been. Never meant both. I would prefer not to move Carrick until we actually see some NHL games out of him. McKeown's more ripened in the sense that he will have had 4 years of juniors under his belt. A prospect that likely will be ready to step into a high minutes role in the AHL or even compete for a 3rd pairing spot in the NHL (doubtful). As far as the righty/lefty thing is concerned perhaps that gets addressed with another deal. Both McAvoy and Fabbro are righty, so longer term you have that in the hopper.

Wasn't that long ago I suggested trading a young dman for a forward and was told that trading a young dman for another good young asset was being too cute, McKeown being specifically mentioned as one that shouldn't be traded. I even mentioned the possibility of drafting one of the highly regarded young dmen in the draft as a replacement should it come to this. How quickly things can change.

Two different contexts. In this case we're looking at asset management as it relates to picks at the draft. If the best player available is a blueliner and they have a solid resume, the question is do you take that guy or do you take a lesser forward prospect. Strategically, one way to justify adding yet another bluechip defender is to consider trading a high quality defensive asset for an equal offensive asset. That situation only surfaces, to my way of thinking, if you can replace that back end player with an equal or better prospect. By all accounts there are 6 very good defensive prospects in the 1st round pool: Chychrun, Juolevi, Sergachev, McAvoy, Bean, and Fabbro. The first two likely go in the top 10 picks so we probably don't have to worry about them. Of the next 4, at least two, maybe even 3 may be ranked higher on our prospect board as it relates to who's the best player. If that's the case, it opens up the option to pick the defender with a plan to move another blueliner that's closer to the show.

In my scenario, I'd essentially be replacing McKeown (who I like very much, btw) with a defender with a better pedigree.

I don't recall your specific posts, but do recall a plethora of folks offering Fleury in the same context. And the only way I consider this deal is if we consider the blueliner prospect better than any of the forward prospects available when our pick comes up. If any of McLeod, Jones, Gauthier, Dobois, Bellows, Kunin, or even Tufte are available with our 2nd pick in the 1st round then this conversation is moot. Heck, I'd likely take Laberge even. But I don't know who the Canes have rated higher.

 

[Penaltykiller17]

I don't understand this thinking that a ufa signing is going to make or break a team's long term success. There's no guarantee it will even work out. Build through the draft and develop prospects into a team. I think a few years down the road when we're at or close to contention is when we should talk about ufa splashes.

Something I thought about is what the future looks like at center. They've said they want to move lindholm to the middle so I wonder what happens if eric gets re-signed

I believe Minnesota's made the playoffs every season since they signed Parise and Suter via UFA. I would put the impact Okposo has on a game equivalent to Parise.

I know we all prefer to draft every player on our way to a cup, but that's not reality. Creating contenders involves a series of moves by GM's that includes trading away assets to gain assets, and signing UFA's. UFA's in the salary cap era are becoming more rare, because players aren't available for UFA until they're at least 26, and most elite players are often locked up with their respective teams, and most teams don't have the budget to sign elite players via free agency. I'd say the UFA is a better route of acquiring talent over trading, as you acquire talent without giving away assets. I can name at least 5-10 players that play top minutes on each playoff team that were not drafted by the team.

I'm not discrediting drafting, because it is important, but Carolina is way behind the curve in this department, mainly because of JR's inability to properly draft, properly develop, and trading away picks. The only players currently in the farm system that even have a chance of cracking the top 6 are Aho and Roy. We should continue to draft and develop. If we're truly going the Detroit route, we should make these players we draft play a minimum of 1-2yrs in the minors. I believe Haydn Fleury is our only 1st rounder to not play in the league his first or second year this decade. And while these players are drafted, we could sign a top line veteran player to take the burden off these prospects.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I believe Minnesota's made the playoffs every season since they signed Parise and Suter via UFA. I would put the impact Okposo has on a game equivalent to Parise.

I know we all prefer to draft every player on our way to a cup, but that's not reality. Creating contenders involves a series of moves by GM's that includes trading away assets to gain assets, and signing UFA's. UFA's in the salary cap era are becoming more rare, because players aren't available for UFA until they're at least 26, and most elite players are often locked up with their respective teams, and most teams don't have the budget to sign elite players via free agency. I'd say the UFA is a better route of acquiring talent over trading, as you acquire talent without giving away assets. I can name at least 5-10 players that play top minutes on each playoff team that were not drafted by the team.

I'm not discrediting drafting, because it is important, but Carolina is way behind the curve in this department, mainly because of JR's inability to properly draft, properly develop, and trading away picks. The only players currently in the farm system that even have a chance of cracking the top 6 are Aho and Roy. We should continue to draft and develop. If we're truly going the Detroit route, we should make these players we draft play a minimum of 1-2yrs in the minors. I believe Haydn Fleury is our only 1st rounder to not play in the league his first or second year this decade. And while these players are drafted, we could sign a top line veteran player to take the burden off these prospects.

You are kind of all over the place. First, you say the Canes have a lot of depth so they should trade up to the top 3 of the draft. Now, you say the Canes are "way behind the curve" and have no depth because JR's inability to draft. I think the issue most of us have with your approach is you are doing EXACTLY what we hated with JR, going for the "quick fix". Trading a bunch of assets to try to move up to get 1 guy, for instance.

Nobody thinks you can build a team ONLY by drafting and developing, just that it needs to be the foundation. The issue is (1) throwing an absurd amount of money at 1 player (a winger at that), isn't going to put this team over the top and could hamstring this team and (2) UFAs have to WANT to come here, and so far, that hasn't been the case. Yes, the team is on the upswing, but it takes more than 1 good season (see Columbus) before you become a destination for UFAs IMO.

I would be more than happy if the Canes landed a guy like Okposo and I'm NOT suggesting don't try, I just don't see it as likely and certainly wouldn't back up the brinks truck for him. Personally, I want to get to the point where the team has drafted and developed well enough that they are now competitive, but need a UFA or 2 to put them over the top. I think that is still a couple years away honestly so I'm willing to stay the course.

 

[NotOpie]

I believe Minnesota's made the playoffs every season since they signed Parise and Suter via UFA. I would put the impact Okposo has on a game equivalent to Parise.

I know we all prefer to draft every player on our way to a cup, but that's not reality. Creating contenders involves a series of moves by GM's that includes trading away assets to gain assets, and signing UFA's. UFA's in the salary cap era are becoming more rare, because players aren't available for UFA until they're at least 26, and most elite players are often locked up with their respective teams, and most teams don't have the budget to sign elite players via free agency. I'd say the UFA is a better route of acquiring talent over trading, as you acquire talent without giving away assets. I can name at least 5-10 players that play top minutes on each playoff team that were not drafted by the team.

I'm not discrediting drafting, because it is important, but Carolina is way behind the curve in this department, mainly because of JR's inability to properly draft, properly develop, and trading away picks. The only players currently in the farm system that even have a chance of cracking the top 6 are Aho and Roy. We should continue to draft and develop. If we're truly going the Detroit route, we should make these players we draft play a minimum of 1-2yrs in the minors. I believe Haydn Fleury is our only 1st rounder to not play in the league his first or second year this decade. And while these players are drafted, we could sign a top line veteran player to take the burden off these prospects.

Quite simply the phrase I probably overuse is asset management. We tend to fall in love with player(s) to the point of irrationality. I readily admit that I probably have more fondness for players like Staal and prospects like Fleury than would be healthy for a GM. That said, the draft remains the most cost effective way to build a long term team plan. Patience (and attending costs such as open seats at home games) is the key cost. However a properly managed roster tends to have significant number of cost controlled players as well as targeted marquee players from trades and UFA signings.

I'm just optimistic enough to feel that others in the league are beginning to take notice of what Carolina is building. Our chances of signing a big name UFA would probably be enhanced if we had one more year of success under our belt. But the young D is getting noticed. People know about Aho, even Wallmark. Add in a few forward prospects from this year's draft and free agents will look at this team as one on the rise.

Right now we've got 3 very tradable assets, maybe 4 if you count Murphy. So we have the makings of a cupboard that could fill up very quickly. That mix is what I would think a GM like Ron Francis is hoping for.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm just optimistic enough to feel that others in the league are beginning to take notice of what Carolina is building. Our chances of signing a big name UFA would probably be enhanced if we had one more year of success under our belt. But the young D is getting noticed.

That's kinda where I'm at also. Regardless of what the team is building, if they don't make the playoffs this year (and I don't think they will), and if they do some selling at the deadline, the team won't be viewed as a great landing spot for UFAs, unless we vastly overpay. I'm not saying the Canes shouldn't TRY to get some better UFAs, I just don't see it as likely. I'd be happy to be wrong though.

 

[bleedgreen]

To answer your 1st question, he'd choose us because we're a young team on the rise. Him coming here would help bolster the sluggish and inconsistent offense. Also, most of the top teams are at the cap, and already have their core's intact.

To answer your second question, Carolina could afford to gamble on Okposo. I wouldn't want some insane deal, but we could at least offer him what we gave Semin. He could help carry us through our sluggish starts, and put us in a better position for the playoffs. Also, this team will not be a consistent playoff team until we can produce a top line, and we don't currently have players with elite level skill, and they don't become available very often in UFA.

I just don't want to look back 3 years from now seeing other teams improve, while we're still singing our should've would've could'ves.

Why choose a young team maybe on the rise over a good one? In a market he wants to play in? Who wants to help a sluggish offense over playing with one that helps him vs the other way around? He's a power forward, not a playmaking center so he's not changing the offense much. He needs offense around him to put up numbers.

Ottawa is a good team and just ate phaneuf's contract. If someone wants him they'll find a way. He'll have more offers than ours, it's a small group of higher end players this year. He's getting overpaid.

We can afford the contract, but do we want to on a power forward? Do we not need the money later for Hanifin or whoever blows up later? He'd be our highest paid player, but he's a complimentary piece. Puts our scale out of whack, with a possible marginal return on the investment. If we're paying that much money we would want a higher impact player then either Ladd or Okposo.

I'd like to get either one but they are hitting their prime time contract. I would think it'll be a mix of highest bidder with the best chance of winning. We shouldn't be bidding. We could use either one of these guys traded to us in the middle of their last contracts, but not flat out buying them on the open market.

If we keep estaal for 6 mill, then I would possibly reconsider. These guys make great line mates. I also like the Purcell idea, especially for estaal.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Unfortunately, UFAs aren't coming here in droves. And it seems like word of mouth isn't doing it either. I think the middle ground is something like Ottawa did with the Bobby Ryan trade a few years ago. Take some assets (and a current, decent roster player) and make a trade for an upcoming star UFA. The Canes have stockpiled really well in terms of picks and prospects, and eventually it'll be time to get a 1st line talent out of it.

Make that trade and the environment in and around the team should be enough to sign the guy to an extension fairly quickly.

The only question is when to pull the trigger. My assumption would be at some point next season.

 

[jeromeo87]

Unfortunately, UFAs aren't coming here in droves. And it seems like word of mouth isn't doing it either. I think the middle ground is something like Ottawa did with the Bobby Ryan trade a few years ago. Take some assets (and a current, decent roster player) and make a trade for an upcoming star UFA. The Canes have stockpiled really well in terms of picks and prospects, and eventually it'll be time to get a 1st line talent out of it.

Make that trade and the environment in and around the team should be enough to sign the guy to an extension fairly quickly.

The only question is when to pull the trigger. My assumption would be at some point next season.

Sadly, any UFA worth bringing in will probably have to be overpaid for him to consider coming to Carolina. Some UFAs may be worth "overpayment" gamble and may actually live up to their contract. Perron comes to mind. Maybe even Jagr. I'm assuming both would want between $4 mil and $5 mil. Could be off there..

 

[RodTheBawd]

I would love to have him, but Jagr cares only about money at this point and we wouldn't be the highest bidder.

 

[Penaltykiller17]

You are kind of all over the place. First, you say the Canes have a lot of depth so they should trade up to the top 3 of the draft. Now, you say the Canes are "way behind the curve" and have no depth because JR's inability to draft. I think the issue most of us have with your approach is you are doing EXACTLY what we hated with JR, going for the "quick fix". Trading a bunch of assets to try to move up to get 1 guy, for instance.

Nobody thinks you can build a team ONLY by drafting and developing, just that it needs to be the foundation. The issue is (1) throwing an absurd amount of money at 1 player (a winger at that), isn't going to put this team over the top and could hamstring this team and (2) UFAs have to WANT to come here, and so far, that hasn't been the case. Yes, the team is on the upswing, but it takes more than 1 good season (see Columbus) before you become a destination for UFAs IMO.

I would be more than happy if the Canes landed a guy like Okposo and I'm NOT suggesting don't try, I just don't see it as likely and certainly wouldn't back up the brinks truck for him. Personally, I want to get to the point where the team has drafted and developed well enough that they are now competitive, but need a UFA or 2 to put them over the top. I think that is still a couple years away honestly so I'm willing to stay the course.

What I was trying to convey is we have depth between lines 2, 3, and 4, but lack a true top line, and none of our current prospects or young guys on the roster has shown to be a top 3 player. I feel like the players currently in the cupboard at most project to be a 2nd liner.

With the high potential of Staal being traded for 1 more high draft pick and prospect, that would put us with 11 draft picks and yet another decent prospect. I think that between those picks, combined with the 2nd/3rd/4th line depth, this year more than ever is an opportunity for us to move up in the draft to select a prospect that could properly slot on the top line without effecting the balance of the roster or the farm.

If Eric lands us a third 1st round pick, I don't think it would be a JR move to move two of those picks for a better one, and still have another 1st rounder left over. My example of Lindholm/our 1st to move up probably wasn't the best example, but using two draft picks to move up isn't a bad idea.

As far as acquiring UFA's, I question our history of trying. JR was always on record saying he never wanted to acquire the top FA's, instead opting to wait for bargain deals at the end of the summer. I think the only time he ever tried to get a top UFA was the summer of Parise/Suter. At the end of this season, we will have gotten rid of all the bad contracts, and after re-signing our RFA's, we'll probably have about $10 million left to reach the cap floor, let

I know it's a long shot of us moving up in the draft or acquiring a top UFA, but I think this year we are in a position for GMRF to make a bold move.