The Challenge, Should You Choose To Accept It - Build Next Year's Team

[NotOpie]

So I was spending some time on Capfriendly.com (which I prefer over GeneralFanager.com) and looked at some of the numbers for next year's team. I made some assumptions about who'd be resigned and who wouldn't and also made a couple of assumptions about the salary cap.

Assumptions:

Rask signed to bridge deal for Lindy money - 2 years@$2,700,000/yr.
Nordstrom signed to same deal as Nestrasil - 2 years@ $912,500/yr.

2016-17 Salary Cap $73,000,000
2016-17 Canes Internal Budget $66,000,000

Here's what I came up with:

XXX/XXX/Lindholm
Skinner/Rask/Di Giuseppe
Nestrasil/JStaal/Nordstrom
XXX/McClement/XXX
XXX

Faulk/Hainsey
Wisniewski/Pesce
Hanifin/Slavin
XXX

Lack
XXX

Needs: 2 1st line forwards, 2 4th line forwards, 1 goaltender (pick whether it is a #1 or not), a 13th forward, and a 7th defender.

By my calculations we will be spending (cap dollars):

Forwards (8) - $20,967,500
Defenders (6) - $15,642,500
Goaltenders (1) - $2,750,000
Buyouts (1) - $2,333,333

Total Cap Hit 2016-17 $41,693,000
Total Remaining Cap Space $31,307,000

Total Remaining Internal Budget Space $24,307,000

With this in mind, what would you do to build next year's team? Who would you sign? What youngsters do you see making the team? Would you resign any of this year's guys? How much would these guys be signed for?

Basically, build next year's team.

Also, compare that to what you actually think the organization will do. I'll put my thoughts in a separate reply.

Click to read more...

 

[BrindAmours Army]

Acting on the assumption that Ward is definitely coming back, no other teams choose to re-sign their pending UFAs, Stamkos would not sign here under reasonable terms, we give Aho another year, we let our picks this year remain in Juniors/College/AHL, and unrealistic numbers are okay.

Trade Hainsey.
Ward - 2 years@$2,750,000/yr.
Versteeg - 2 years@$4,500,000/yr.
Estaalo - 4 years@$7,000,000/yr.
Mikkel Boedker - 4 years@4,500,000/yr.
David Perron - 4 years@4,500,000/yr.
Ryan Murphy - 2 years@900,000/yr.
Brad Malone - 1 year@650,000.

Versteeg/E. Staal/Lindholm
Boedker/J. Staal/Perron
Skinner/Rask/ PDG
Nestrasil/McClement/Nordstrom
Malone

Slavin - Faulk
Hanifin - Wisniewski
Fleury - Pesce
Murphy

Lack/Ward

$1,446,166 under the internal budget.

Depending on how his summer goes, I think Hanfin may be slotted on the top pair, but we'll see. I would not be surprised if Fleury and Aho both make the team. I find it unlikely that our 1st pick this year will be make the team next year, but if we miss playoffs and RNGesus is with us then it is definitely possible. I doubt we sign Boedker or Perron. We'll probably re-sign Ward, Staal, and Versteeg. We'll either trade or re-sign Murphy.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

remember last year when everyone was so excited about tolchinsky?

maybe he ends up like pdg next year, callup halfway through and takes hold of a spot

 

[BrindAmours Army]

remember last year when everyone was so excited about tolchinsky?

maybe he ends up like pdg next year, callup halfway through and takes hold of a spot

I'd rather give him another year in the AHL. He has been bouncing up and down Charlotte's depth chart all season. I want him to hold a top 6 position in Charlotte for most of a season before we bring him up.

 

[Caniac125330]

Agree on trading Hainsey, he is getting old and slow, and if we assume Wiz plays and Fleury is ready there is no spot for him. Trading him frees up about $2.8 mil, and since we have D in house to replace him I'll add that to my forward budget.
Versteeg-2 years @ $4 mil
E. Staal- 4 years @ $6 mil
Vrbata- 2 years @ $3.5 mil (not having a good year but I would bank on a bounce back)
Eriksson- 4 years @ $4.5mil
Ward- 2 years @3 mil

Versteeg-E. Staal-Vrbata
Eriksson-J. Staal-Lindholm
Skinner-Rask-PDG
McGinn-McClement-Nestrasil
Nordstrom

Hanifin-Faulk
Slavin-Wiz
Fleury-Pesce
Carrick

Ward
Lack

 

[NotOpie]

So here are my thoughts:

I'd be willing to resign Eric for 4 years for $26 million ($6.5 million per year). I'd go hard after Andrew Ladd and try and get him for Jordan money. And I'd try to get him for 4 years instead of the rumored 6 he's looking for, so that's 4 years at $24 million ($6 million per year). I think he'd fit in great w/Peters' system.

I too would go after Mikkel Boedker and throw some significant money at him. I'd try to get him for Skinner money but try to keep the term down to 4 years ($5.75 million). I assume that Brock McGinn sticks this year too. His salary is $811,667. I'd probably resign Riley Nash but for a bit less money ($900,000?). He and McGinn can battle it out for ice time.

My 7th defender would be Danny Biega as I think he's more versatile that Michal Jordan. I'd pay him $850,000.

Finally, I'd likely resign Ward to a two year, $6.5 million deal. If that didn't work, I'd target somebody like Al Montoya who is a very serviceable #2.

So my team looks like this:

Ladd/EStaal/Lindholm
Boedker/JStaal/Nestrasil
Skinner/Rask/PDG
Nordstrom/McClement/Nash
McGinn

Faulk/Hainsey
Pesce/Wisniewski
Hanifin/Slavin

Lack
Ward

With the Semin buyout, the cap hit comes to $65,755,000, $245,000 below the internal budget.

As much as I hate to break up the Nordy/Jordy/Nesty line, I'll take the upgraded skill that Boedker brings. Ladd, Eric, and Lindy feels like a line that would just click.

This gives Aho another year to percolate in Finland, gives Wallmark his first taste of the North American game, and lets Tolchinsky continue his progression. It also allows Carrick to help mentor Fleury and McKeown. It also gives the young goalie prospects plenty of game time.

However, I don't think the team goes after more than one UFA, thinking that this group is coming along well. That scares me as I feel we still need an upgrade in the skill department. I'd also hope that they ended up getting assets for Versteeg, Liles, and Murphy.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Doubt Eriksson comes as cheaply as that one post suggests. I feel like for us to get Ladd, unless friendships and familiarity end up giving us an advantage, we'd have to be closer to the 6 years he wants to be the team that landed him, which is probably too much. I like the idea of Boedker, but feel four years again is wishful thinking with a still pretty young guy. I don't want Nash back. Also, the goal should be to build a team where guys like Nesty and Nordstrom are fourth liners that can move up as pleasant as they've been. Obviously not easy, but that's when we'll be good. And even though they're hard to predict, I find it hard to believe we'll be in on nothing but free agents and have no trades that add talent (ie not just trading Hainsey). We will have a lot of young assets and picks, so a trade to get whatever talent becomes available for whatever reason like Hamilton and O'Reilly last off season seems quite possible. Or like the Versteeg trade for us.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

I wouldn't mind exploring acquiring Jannik Hansen. IIRC, we almost traded for him a few years ago and he seems like the perfect fit on this team and plays well defensively. I think Peters would love him.

 

[NotOpie]

Doubt Eriksson comes as cheaply as that one post suggests. I feel like for us to get Ladd, unless friendships and familiarity end up giving us an advantage, we'd have to be closer to the 6 years he wants to be the team that landed him, which is probably too much. I like the idea of Boedker, but feel four years again is wishful thinking with a still pretty young guy. I don't want Nash back. Also, the goal should be to build a team where guys like Nesty and Nordstrom are fourth liners that can move up as pleasant as they've been. Obviously not easy, but that's when we'll be good. And even though they're hard to predict, I find it hard to believe we'll be in on nothing but free agents and have no trades that add talent (ie not just trading Hainsey). We will have a lot of young assets and picks, so a trade to get whatever talent becomes available for whatever reason like Hamilton and O'Reilly last off season seems quite possible. Or like the Versteeg trade for us.

All good points and, yes, there's a bit of wishful thinking. However, one things the Canes have right now going into next season is Cap space. They squeeze a little higher than the proposed internal number. One way to make Raleigh more enticing is to throw a bigger number out in lieu of term. That might not work for Andrew Ladd, but for a guy like Boedker who's only 26, a 4 year deal takes him to 30, the age when guys are looking to sign that last big deal. So maybe you pop his number up to $6.25 or even $6.5 million, as long as you can keep the term to 4 years. Or in his case you might go to 5 years.

As much as I'd like to get Ladd, I'd be very fearful of much over 4 years. He plays a physical game that I could easily see leading to more physical issues going forward.

Edit: I think you're underselling Nestrasil a bit, but I agree on Nordstrom, hence his position on my proposed 4th line.

 

[DaveG]

so just for fun I put together a roster with basically the same cap hit as this current team.

retain:
Eric Staal: 7mil per/4 years
Kris Versteeg: 4.5mil per/3 years
Cam Ward: 3mil per/2 years
Victor Rask: 3.5mil per/3 years
Joakim Nordstrom: 850K per/2 years
Reilly Nash: 1mil/1 year

bring in:
Sebastien Aho: 925K/3 years (ELC)
Andrew Ladd: 5.5mil/4 years
Joni Pitkanen: 1.5mil/1 year (because I want to watch the world facebook burn)

trade out:
Ron Hainsey to someone for a 4th at draft
JM Liles to someone at the deadline for a 2017 3rd

impending UFAs I just let walk... to Europe or the AHL:
Brad Malone
Nathan Gerbe
Chris Terry

Kris Versteeg - Eric Staal - Elias Lindholm
Andrew Ladd - Jordan Staal - Phil Di Giuseppe
Jeff Skinner - Victor Rask - Sebastian Aho
Joakim Nordstrom - Jay MacClement - Andrej Nestrasil
Reilly Nash

Noah Hanifin - Justin Faulk
Jaacob Slavin - James Wisniewski
Hayden Fleury - Brett Pesce
Joni Pitkanen

Cam Ward
Eddie Lack

current cap hit: 63.9 million
cap hit: 63.9 million

 

[RodTheBawd]

So Dave, what you're saying is... you like our group?

 

[DaveG]

So Dave, what you're saying is... you like our group?

lol prettymuch, honestly I think we're one more top 6 type player (which I would say Ladd is) from being a REALLY good team. And I don't think we're going to be in a position to draft one that's NHL ready unless we get REALLY lucky... or say Jones or Gauthier is better then expected.

 

[bleedgreen]

I have staal gone, and we resign versteeg. I'm not doing the math, I'm sure it's under the cap.

Skinner Rask Versteeg
Nordstrom Jstaal Nesty
PDG Lindy Aho
Mcginn McC Brown/Woods


Hainsey Faulk
Slavin Pesce
Hanifin Wiz


Lack
I don't care, maybe Ward on the cheap.

I think if we sell at the deadline, McC goes and Nash gets the 4th line, and maybe Malone stays for that line as well. It's time Lindy gets his own line. It's too young a team, and I can see us adding a vet on wing and maybe on D as well to shore it up and maintain competition. No quality UFA is signing with us. Not yet anyways. I see a lot of pipe dreams, which are fun but just so unlikely. Not without drastic overpayment and term, which we don't want. Build our own team. We're seeing the success of this concept already this year. The team above is basically our team now without Estaal. I don't think he's been vital to our recent success. I'm moving on from that.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I have a very hard time believing they'd go into the season with that team. I agree that most of these free agent signings are unlikely, but I highly doubt they wouldn't at least make another Versteeg/Wiz type move for a forward. I have to imagine they'd want a better chance at improvement and playoffs than that roster would likely allow.

 

[bleedgreen]

A Versteeg/Wiz move would fall into the vet depth signing at both defense and forward that I mentioned in the paragraph. I agree with you, I think they'll look to add. We just can't foresee the Versteeg's that may be available, and what I have there is what I think the skeleton looks like. I just don't think we're going to do better than the kind of moves we're both referring to. We don't want to give up the assets and UFA's on the high won't want to be here.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don't think next year's team is going to be as grandiose as some have posted (for example, I'll be shocked if we sign high profile UFAs like Ladd, Eriksson, Boedker, etc..). First, that's not what Francis has preached (draft and develop) and 2nd, high profile UFAs won't likely want to come to Carolina.

What I see happening is (regardless of the deadline, speaking of next season):

Re-signed: Nash (4th line), Versteeg, Ward.
Not Re-signed: E. Staal, Gerbe, Malone, Terry, M. Jordan, Liles
Salary increases to RFAs: Rask and Nordstrom
Trade: Ryan Murphy as part of a package deal

I've seen a few people have Hanifin on the top pairing in their rosters, but I haven't seen anything that tells me he'll be ready for that next year. I also don't think they'll let go of Hainsey or Wiz without bringing back another veteran defender so I think they'll keep both. I think the D will be:

Hainsey-Faulk
Slavin-Pesce
Hanifin-Wiz
Carrick

The only real moves I see is bringing up 1 or 2 guys (Aho, Woods, McGinn) from the ranks and signing or trading for a lower/mid tier UFA at forward (or 2 if they don't re-sign Versteeg).

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

All things considered, even with how well he's played Wiz over Liles is probably an upgrade. Plus it allows us to stay patient with the young d and stay the course.

I think Francis goes out and gets one new forward to replace the one (not both) of Staal and Versteeg that leave. I don't think we lose both. I don't think we re-sign both either.

I honestly don't imagine many changes to this lineup next year.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

All things considered, even with how well he's played Wiz over Liles is probably an upgrade. Plus it allows us to stay patient with the young d and stay the course.

I think Francis goes out and gets one new forward to replace the one (not both) of Staal and Versteeg that leave. I don't think we lose both. I don't think we re-sign both either.

I honestly don't imagine many changes to this lineup next year.

Yep, give Fleury and McKeown both a year in the AHL (I assume they can both play in the AHL next year?) playing top minutes..then 2 years from now, you have the "potential" to have a defense that looks something like:

Hanifin-Faulk
Slavin-Pesce
Fleury-McKeown
Carrick

Re-arrange the pieces however you want. A lot of things have to fall into place in order for that to happen, but having a couple of vets like Wiz and Hainsey for another season allows the Canes to do that.

I also have a feeling that the Cane will go after Darren Helm in UFA, especially if Staal isn't re-signed. Yeah, I know it's hard to fit him in if Lindholm is back in the middle, but Peters is familiar with him and he would fit right in to what Peters wants. Talking with some friends who are Wings fans, even though he won't be that expensive, they think he'll be too expensive for the Wings and they have other guys that can fill that role.

"I can tell you that Pavel wants to play with Helmer," Blashill said before Wednesday's game in Tampa Bay. "He's told me numerous times and told (former coach Mike Babcock) numerous times that Helmer's a guy he wants on his line because he's on the puck first, he goes to the net, he does the dirty work.

"That might not always result in points, but I don't judge players on points. I judge them on how they play throughout the game. He does lots of things that help us. I think he's been a real good player for the last little bit and he's obviously been a real good player for the Red Wings for a long time. We're going to need him to be great here in the last 30 games and continue to play the way he has lately."

 

[NotOpie]

Yep, give Fleury and McKeown both a year in the AHL (I assume they can both play in the AHL next year?) playing top minutes..then 2 years from now, you have the "potential" to have a defense that looks something like:

Hanifin-Faulk
Slavin-Pesce
Fleury-McKeown
Carrick

Re-arrange the pieces however you want. A lot of things have to fall into place in order for that to happen, but having a couple of vets like Wiz and Hainsey for another season allows the Canes to do that.

I also have a feeling that the Cane will go after Darren Helm in UFA, especially if Staal isn't re-signed. Yeah, I know it's hard to fit him in if Lindholm is back in the middle, but Peters is familiar with him and he would fit right in to what Peters wants. Talking with some friends who are Wings fans, even though he won't be that expensive, they think he'll be too expensive for the Wings and they have other guys that can fill that role.

Well, BBA, I think I've got a different take on a couple of things.....The team will need a #1C and unless they move Eric at the deadline and give Lindy all the reps there to see what he's got, then they will have to go get one. And frankly other than Stamkos, I don't see one out there (UFA). I don't believe Lindy (or Rask or JStaal, for that matter) are #1Cs. I think that Lindholm has the potential to grow into that role, but I don't know how you do that without going through significant growing pains.

That said, I do believe we will sign one or two high profile UFAs. That doesn't go counter to Ronnie or Bill's philosophy as they both realize that cherish the value of veteran voices in the room. Plus they know we need scoring and there's no guarantee that any youngster is going to bring that to the table. My guess is that they will definitely be looking at Ladd, Boedker, Okposo, Eriksson, Perron, and Backes. The question is how many of these guys are still on the market come free agent frenzy and how many will "consider Carolina".

Sure maybe Versteeg or Eric are re-upped, who knows. I'm on record as saying I'd try to get a reasonable deal with Eric as a big priority. But lately it looks like to me that something else is in the wind....and I don't know what it is.

I do believe that other teams/players are beginning to take notice of what's cooking here. So I'm not so sure that the argument that no UFA will sign with the Canes is as true anymore. Also, take a look at 2017's group of forwards. It's not a pretty sight. It would make sense for us to spend a little more this year on a key player or two knowing that we've got some help lining up in the waiting room (Aho, and a little further out, Foegele, Roy, etc.).

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

That said, I do believe we will sign one or two high profile UFAs. That doesn't go counter to Ronnie or Bill's philosophy as they both realize that cherish the value of veteran voices in the room. Plus they know we need scoring and there's no guarantee that any youngster is going to bring that to the table. My guess is that they will definitely be looking at Ladd, Boedker, Okposo, Eriksson, Perron, and Backes. The question is how many of these guys are still on the market come free agent frenzy and how many will "consider Carolina".

Well, I disagree.

1) Of the guys you listed, particularly Ladd, Eriksson and Okposo, they are going to command way too much money. The others, I'm not sure on. I think of the guys you listed, Perron might make some sense and may be a guy they might target, but if he continues to play like he is right now with St. Louis, it may be a moot point. Not sure what to think of Backes yet or how much he'll be asking to weigh in on him.

2) Other teams will outbid the Canes for the top guys.

3) The Canes have never been, nor are they (yet) a prime destination for UFAs.

4) When is the last time the Canes truly signed a high profile UFA? Semin and Kaberle only signed here because nobody else wanted them and we see why.

Of course anything can happen, I just don't see it being as likely as you and others feel it is. I think it is more likely it's a lower tier guy like a Helm or Purcell.

 

[jeromeo87]

Versteeg EStaal Lindholm
Di Giuseppe JStaal Jagr
Skinner Rask Nestrasil
Malone McClement Nordstrom

Hanifin Faulk
Slavin Wiz
Fleury/Hainsey Pesce

Ward
Lack

 

[NotOpie]

Well, I disagree.

1) Of the guys you listed, particularly Ladd, Eriksson and Okposo, they are going to command way too much money. The others, I'm not sure on. I think of the guys you listed, Perron might make some sense and may be a guy they might target, but if he continues to play like he is right now with St. Louis, it may be a moot point. Not sure what to think of Backes yet or how much he'll be asking to weigh in on him.

2) Other teams will outbid the Canes for the top guys.

3) The Canes have never been, nor are they (yet) a prime destination for UFAs.

4) When is the last time the Canes truly signed a high profile UFA? Semin and Kaberle only signed here because nobody else wanted them and we see why.

Of course anything can happen, I just don't see it being as likely as you and others feel it is. I think it is more likely it's a lower tier guy like a Helm or Purcell.

As I said, it is a matter of whether those guys see this as an opportunity or not. If they see that we're building something here, then that may change some minds. Ronnie's not afraid to throw money out there - remember the rumor was that he offered more money for Justin Williams than Washington did. Willie felt he had a better shot at another Cup run w/the Caps.

Of the group I mentioned I think Perron, Backes and Boedker are the most likely. If Ronnie resigns Eric, I really don't know what message that sends to the league. Is is business as usual or is it that we're closer than many think. And while Perron is playing great for the Ducks at the moment, they've got 3 RFAs to deal with. But you've got to admire the way they've managed their cap.

On an unrelated note, if the brain trust goes BPA at the draft, then likely one of those two 1st round picks could very well be another blueliner. In that 10-13 range you'll see Bean, Sergachev, McAvoy, and maybe Fabbro or one or more of those guys will be available at 25. If that's the case, then we could see a trade involving one of the more ripened defensive assets to get some scoring help.

 

[w e l o s t b o y s]

Hard to do before the deadline with Eric and Versteeg being the big unknowns.

If they both come back and we look for an addition through freeagency, I'm looking for a more skilled winger to play with Jordan and Nestrasil.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

As I said, it is a matter of whether those guys see this as an opportunity or not. If they see that we're building something here, then that may change some minds.

I understand what you were saying, I just won't believe it til I see it. I don't think the Canes are quite there yet.

Of the group I mentioned I think Perron, Backes and Boedker are the most likely.

I'd say are "more possible", not "most likely". It will all depend on how much they want and what other teams are interested. Perron would probably make the most sense as winger is a need, especially if they don't re-sign Versteeg.

On an unrelated note, if the brain trust goes BPA at the draft, then likely one of those two 1st round picks could very well be another blueliner. In that 10-13 range you'll see Bean, Sergachev, McAvoy, and maybe Fabbro or one or more of those guys will be available at 25. If that's the case, then we could see a trade involving one of the more ripened defensive assets to get some scoring help.

Regardless of the draft, I could see Murphy being moved. It depends on what you mean by "more ripened defensive prospects" though. I'd be shocked if Pesce or Slavin were moved and that would just create a hole for next year's team.

Carrick? maybe, but I'm not sure he holds much value so I'd hate to move him before we see what he can do at the NHL level. Other than that, the other guys don't hold much, if any value, even as part of a package deal.

 

[NotOpie]

I understand what you were saying, I just won't believe it til I see it. I don't think the Canes are quite there yet.



I'd say are "more possible", not "most likely". It will all depend on how much they want and what other teams are interested. Perron would probably make the most sense as winger is a need, especially if they don't re-sign Versteeg.



Regardless of the draft, I could see Murphy being moved. It depends on what you mean by "more ripened defensive prospects" though. I'd be shocked if Pesce or Slavin were moved and that would just create a hole for next year's team.

Carrick? maybe, but I'm not sure he holds much value so I'd hate to move him before we see what he can do at the NHL level. Other than that, the other guys don't hold much, if any value, even as part of a package deal.

Carrick is a possibility but I was thinking more along the lines of McKeown....Murphy definitely.

One clarification on my semantics - "most likely" was in reference to the group of UFAs I mentioned. As in...of XYXYXY, YYY would the most likely members of that set to be moved.