The Cam Ward RAGE POST. Rage Against the Machine

[Ole Gil]

I think they are getting closer. The offense looks capable of scoring goals when they need to now. But it definitely seems like Muller is waiting as long as he can to 'release the dogs' so to speak.

 

[rocky7]

yep, I was hoping it was going to be a process. I got the sense that JR felt the same given his comments in that interview the other day and Jordan seemed to indicate that they were "allowed" to play offensively during the PK. I don't think they are playing to their strengths turning everyone into a grinder.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Rocky there's only two skilled forwards on the team - Semin and Skinner.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Even moreso than his record, look at the Canes' goals/game with either goalie in net.

Ward: 2.73
Peters: 1.38

In order to protect Peters enough to produce those great numbers, they basically have to play for a 1-0 game.

While that's true that the Canes play a more conservative game to protect Peters, those statistics are misleading. Another big (maybe bigger) factor affecting those scoring statistics are that Ward went out the same game that Skinner went out and we have seen how badly the offense suffers without Skinner.

Skinner has been in the line-up for only 5 of Peters' 14 starts. In those 5 starts, the Canes have scored 13 goals, so the Goals/Game is 2.6. We are in very small sample size territory here, but the fact that the Canes most dynamic scoring forward has been in the line-up for every one of Ward's starts, but only a fraction of Peter's starts makes those overall Goals/Game numbers misleading.

And it's not just his goal scoring that matters in those games. With Skinner in the line-up, it makes other teams adjust their defensive matchups/strategies which can open up opportunity for other players as well.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Cam Ward has played well enough where he should have been in the playoffs every season but 09-10.

I don't agree with that. His first two years as a starter, he wasn't nearly good enough. Then he had a 3-4 year stretch where he was good enough (09-10 he missed a lot of time due to the skate cut injury..and by the time he returned, the Canes chances were done). In that stretch of 3 seasons, they made the playoffs once and just missed on the last game of the season once, and were a disaster the other.

Last year and this year, he has not been good enough (injuries not withstanding).

I'm not in the bash Cam camp and honestly think that for this year, they can't keep relying on Peters, but right now, Cam does not look good. He doesn't look confident, his positioning (which to me used to be a strong point of his) is suspect, and his lateral movement isn't there. He's always struggled with glove side high and giving up a softy now and then, but the rest of his game was solid enough to overcome that.

We keep hearing the same excuses. "He was screened. It was a tip. The shot was from a prime scoring area. etc..."

If we have to have a goalie that can only stop the unscreened, untipped, shots from bad scoring spots, then we don't need one that costs almost $7M. Cam needs to come around, and come around quickly as I don't trust that Peters (and the team) can keep this up.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Last year he was good enough. He had a rough start, but I believe if you chalk up his first two games as "lockout adjustment", the rest of his play that season amounted to a 9-4-1 record and a .915 SV%

It's just easy to forget how well Ward played last year since he had a few poor games that stick in the mind

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Last year he was good enough. He had a rough start, but I believe if you chalk up his first two games as "lockout adjustment", the rest of his play that season amounted to a 9-4-1 record and a .915 SV%

It's just easy to forget how well Ward played last year since he had a few poor games that stick in the mind

It's very debatable. It's not fair to conveniently exclude games in a small sample size because they don't help your argument.

His overall numbers: .908 Save%, 2.84GAA, 9-6-1 record.

I realize those numbers do get impacted by the defense (or lack there of) in front of him, but those numbers are the numbers of a below average goaltender. Heck, even .915 which you quote is average at best.

On top of that, the team was playing very well and giving him a lot of goal support. 51G in the 16 games Ward started for a 3.2 Goals/game average. That would have put them top 3 in the league. They ended at 2.65 for the season which shows how anemic they were the rest of the year.

The team went off the rails for a lot of reasons. Ward getting injured was one of them, but so was Skinner and multiple defenders getting injured and the top line struggling.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Last year he was good enough. He had a rough start, but I believe if you chalk up his first two games as "lockout adjustment", the rest of his play that season amounted to a 9-4-1 record and a .915 SV%

It's just easy to forget how well Ward played last year since he had a few poor games that stick in the mind

It's also easy to forget how well Ward played because he only played in 17 of 48 games.

Look, I'd love to see Cam get back up to full health and eat up 70+ games every year like Brodeur did in his prime. And yes, he was that almost guy for a few years (although he's never played more than 70 games in a season, and in his prime years 23-35, Marty never played less than 70.)

But he's not that guy right now. He's just not. Leaving aside debates about his past performance and his future potential, his play *right now* is not good enough to rely upon him as the unquestioned #1 starter every night.

--hank

 

[Blueline Bomber]

And I never said it was. As I stated in the Calgary GDT, until Ward gets right, go with Peters until either Ward remembers he's Ward or Peters remembers he's Peters.

 

[Ole Gil]

I don't agree with that. His first two years as a starter, he wasn't nearly good enough. Then he had a 3-4 year stretch where he was good enough (09-10 he missed a lot of time due to the skate cut injury..and by the time he returned, the Canes chances were done). In that stretch of 3 seasons, they made the playoffs once and just missed on the last game of the season once, and were a disaster the other.

Last year and this year, he has not been good enough (injuries not withstanding).

06-07 30-21-6 (95pt pace) 4 pts out of playoffs. Backup: 10-13-2
07-08 37-25-5 (97pt pace) 2 pts out of playoffs. Backup: 6-8-1
08-09 39-23-5 (102pt pace) 4 pts in playoffs. Backup: 6-7-2
09-10 18-23-5 (73pt pace) 8 pts out of playoffs. Backup: 17-14-5!!!
10-11 37-26-10 (94pt pace) 2 pts out of playoffs. Backup: 3-5-1
11-12 30-23-13 (91pt pace) 10pts out of playoffs. Backup: 3-10-3
12-13 9-6-1 (97pt pace) 13pts out of playoffs. Backup: 10-19-3

Overall:
Cam Ward: 205-152-50
Backups: 55-76-17

It's not hard to pinpoint where things fall apart.

 

[Ole Gil]

And what Cam Ward is now is a silly discussion. It's only 30 games in, and he's missed half of the season with injury. If Cam ends the season 18-18-18, then yeah, maybe stick a fork in him. But there is no reason to believe his current pace is now his permanent pace.

 

[geehaad]

Ward's been back for a month and he has allowed less than 3 goals only once in the 8 games that Muller has trusted him enough to start him. And just as importantly, he hasn't looked good giving up those goals. Peters has allowed more than 2 goals twice since Nov 5 (11 games). That's playing in front of the same defense.

Ward's definitely not having fun...he's a guy who smiles, and I can't remember the last time I saw him smile. Joke all you want about a player's smile, etc, but when it comes to someone like Ward, if he ain't smiling, he ain't happy, and if he ain't happy, he doesn't play well.

I'm starting to think that Ward doesn't make good use of the improved defense that his team is playing in front of him...that there's some sort of chemistry issue there. Can't put my finger on it, because it seems that a positional goaltender should have better numbers as the defense in front of him improves, but that clearly is not the case here.

 

[Lazyking]

Defense playing like crap in front of Cam may have something to do with that. Oiler game a prime example.

 

[geehaad]

Defense playing like crap in front of Cam may have something to do with that. Oiler game a prime example.

For one game, sure...maybe. Clearly I wasn't talking about 1 game.

The defense has ostensibly been the same. If you're going to split hairs on how well the defense played in one game, you are taking the debate somewhere I'm not willing to go.

 

[What the Faulk]

The second Vancouver game was a circus defensively. They've both had good and bad efforts from the defense.

 

[Ole Gil]

Geehad, do you think the vast difference in offensive output is a coincidence?

The same brand of hockey doesn't appear to be being played on the ice when Cam and Justin are in net. Maybe it's the defense playing better or worse. Maybe it's the opposition. Maybe it's a different strategy. Maybe it's just dumb luck. But despite the same personnel, the product on the ice has been very different, and seems to coincide with who's in net.

 

[What the Faulk]

Someone with more time on their hands should look back through at least Muller's tenure and tell us if the goal support differential between Cam and his backups this year is an anomaly or the norm.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Yeah, the defense (and forwards) definitely play differently in front of both goaltenders.

With Peters in net, it's all about collapsing the house and being absolutely sure that wherever Peters spits out a rebound, we've got a Canes player by it. This does tend to stymy the offense since it leads to more difficult breakouts. Kind of hard to breakout cleanly when every player is in the defensive zone and the opposing team is sitting back waiting for them.

With Ward in net, it's the opposite. They can generate the offense because their breakouts are cleaner. But this also tends to lead to players (mostly the forwards) forgetting their defensive responsibilities in the hopes of generating more offense. Stuff like leaving the zone early, poor passes up the middle, etc.

But even still, both goalies are giving up some headshakers :headshake:

 

[FlyingSquirrels]

I'm not a huge Peter's fan, but I can't remember the last time he gave up a "softie". Ward gives up 1 or 2 of those per game. Those are crushers to a team that can't consistently score like the Canes.

 

[GoCanes2013]

I just don't buy this "different team" in front of one vs. the other. WHY IN THE WORLD would the Defense 'agree' to play differently for Ward - different than a style that is clearly WORKING for Peters? It just seems weird that ANY team would do that? For gosh sakes, PRETEND Cam Ward is Justin Peters then, if that'll work!

 

[tarheelhockey]

I'm not a huge Peter's fan, but I can't remember the last time he gave up a "softie".

How about the last one?

 

[Ole Gil]

I just don't buy this "different team" in front of one vs. the other. WHY IN THE WORLD would the Defense 'agree' to play differently for Ward - different than a style that is clearly WORKING for Peters? It just seems weird that ANY team would do that? For gosh sakes, PRETEND Cam Ward is Justin Peters then, if that'll work!

Is it working? It's not like Justin Peters has a winning record.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

As I posted earlier, looking solely at goal scoring support of Peters vs. Ward is misleading, because Skinner was out of the line-up at the same time as Ward was out (so many of Peter's starts were without him). Looking at the two numbers only since Ward has been back (which pretty much coincides with Skinner coming back also):

Ward: 8 games, 24 goals scored by the Canes: 3 G / Game
Peters: 5 games, 13 goals scored by the Canes: 2.6G / Game

Very small sample size for sure, but it's not as dramatic of a difference as when Peters was starting a long stretch of games when Skinner was not in the line-up. The goal support then was only 17 goals in 11 games (1.5G / game). The Canes have only 69 ES/PP Goals this season and even though Skinner has missed exactly 1/3rd of the season, he has scored 16% of those goals and contributed (Goal or assist) on approximately 30% of them.

No doubt the team seems to play a more defensive game in front of Peters than they do in front of Ward, but the when Skinner has been in the line-up, the goal support has not been that different.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

How about the last one?

Yep, was going to say the same. Even Peters acknowledged that he lost focus on that one.

 

[FlyingSquirrels]

Yep, was going to say the same. Even Peters acknowledged that he lost focus on that one.

He was screened, no?