Speculation: The Budget

[Jets4Life]

I would not worry about the falling loonie too much. What i do worry about is if Canada has a housing crash, due to the oil/gas crisis in Alberta. One of the reasons David Thomson is part owner of the Jets, is he wanted to acquire land around the arena, which was dirt cheap, and build hotels, casinos, restaurants, etc.

It was a smart move, as Downtown Winnipeg is a cheap place to invest in, compared to most big cities in Canada. However, a housing slump would worry me, as Thomson would be less inclined on building more venues in the area. Whatever little money Thomson makes on the Jets, he is bound to make exponentially more on his real estate, so I just pray a housing crash can be avoided.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I would not worry about the falling loonie too much. What i do worry about is if Canada has a housing crash, due to the oil/gas crisis in Alberta. One of the reasons David Thomson is part owner of the Jets, is he wanted to acquire land around the arena, which was dirt cheap, and build hotels, casinos, restaurants, etc.

It was a smart move, as Downtown Winnipeg is a cheap place to invest in, compared to most big cities in Canada. However, a housing slump would worry me, as Thomson would be less inclined on building more venues in the area. Whatever little money Thomson makes on the Jets, he is bound to make exponentially more on his real estate, so I just pray a housing crash can be avoided.

I also hope a housing crash can be avoided .... and I am not the least concerned for Mr. Thompson's money.

 

[Gm0ney]

I just cannot accept that is NOT a big seller. Just doesn't outrank winning. Winning is the trump card.

I think it's a negative for some guys - they just want to be 20-something millionaires without being recognized everywhere they go. I can understand that...

 

[KingBogo]

I would not worry about the falling loonie too much. What i do worry about is if Canada has a housing crash, due to the oil/gas crisis in Alberta. One of the reasons David Thomson is part owner of the Jets, is he wanted to acquire land around the arena, which was dirt cheap, and build hotels, casinos, restaurants, etc.

It was a smart move, as Downtown Winnipeg is a cheap place to invest in, compared to most big cities in Canada. However, a housing slump would worry me, as Thomson would be less inclined on building more venues in the area. Whatever little money Thomson makes on the Jets, he is bound to make exponentially more on his real estate, so I just pray a housing crash can be avoided.

Gambling is the monopoly of the provincial government they would never let that cash cow go. Though a downtown casino with True North involvement is certainly not out of the question. The Province basically gave them the Shark Club after all. I'm sure Mr. Thomson is diversified enough to withstand a real estate downturn.

 

[surixon]

I also hope a housing crash can be avoided .... and I am not the least concerned for Mr. Thompson's money.

I doubt Winnipeg is really going to get hit that hard in any crash. Homes here are still relatively affordable compared to other places in this country.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think it's a negative for some guys - they just want to be 20-something millionaires without being recognized everywhere they go. I can understand that...

Some yes, quite clearly. Many may not want the personal attention but they still want their work to be appreciated.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I doubt Winnipeg is really going to get hit that hard in any crash. Homes here are still relatively affordable compared to other places in this country.

A widespread housing market crash affects the entire country's economy. It will not be pretty.

 

[sully1410]

A widespread housing market crash affects the entire country's economy. It will not be pretty.

I would be surprised if this happened. The economy crashed the last time around mostly because a lot of the banks went broke because of the way they were selling houses. You would get a five year mortgage and then at the end of that five years...you'd have to make a massive balloon payment. Which isn't even a great theory...not sure why they would put it into practice, however most people obviously couldn't afford the balloon payment so the bank would take the house.

Here's the thing, the bank doesn't want the house. The bank wants the money because there is absolutely nothing they can do with the house. Sure they can sell it....but they'll get little in return for it. Nowhere near the initial mortgage value.

So as a result this drives the housing market down. Hence the crash.

The crash of the automotive industry didn't help either.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I would be surprised if this happened. The economy crashed the last time around mostly because a lot of the banks went broke because of the way they were selling houses. You would get a five year mortgage and then at the end of that five years...you'd have to make a massive balloon payment. Which isn't even a great theory...not sure why they would put it into practice, however most people obviously couldn't afford the balloon payment so the bank would take the house.

Here's the thing, the bank doesn't want the house. The bank wants the money because there is absolutely nothing they can do with the house. Sure they can sell it....but they'll get little in return for it. Nowhere near the initial mortgage value.

So as a result this drives the housing market down. Hence the crash.

The crash of the automotive industry didn't help either.

That was mostly a US story but yes it gets complicated. In my memory there have been several housing market crashes in boom/bust Alberta. I know quite a few people who suffered pretty badly in those crashes. If the Bank of Canada makes some sharp moves it could trigger a nationwide housing crash in Canada. The effects would be horrible for a lot of people. It is not something to take lightly and it would affect everybody. The finance industry, the construction industry, the realestate industry, the lumber industry and everyone who sells things to the people who work in those industries.

 

[sully1410]

That was mostly a US story but yes it gets complicated. In my memory there have been several housing market crashes in boom/bust Alberta. I know quite a few people who suffered pretty badly in those crashes. If the Bank of Canada makes some sharp moves it could trigger a nationwide housing crash in Canada. The effects would be horrible for a lot of people. It is not something to take lightly and it would affect everybody. The finance industry, the construction industry, the realestate industry, the lumber industry and everyone who sells things to the people who work in those industries.

Oh absolutely. But its not like the oil will be down forever anyways though. It'll rebound soon enough.