Speculation: The Budget

[Aavco Cup]

Except the Hawks positioned themselves as best they could and won a second cup straddling the cap line. They didn't gut their roster like they would have had to to become a mid cap budget team. Even staying at the cap takes hard choices. Being a mid level budget team with the talent we currently on the roster and coming through the system means giving it away to those that are willing to pay the costs to contend. My main point is if you are stock piling talent and you want to seriously contend you eventually have to pay for it.

They got rid of Buff Ladd Brower Versteeg among others. IIRC the fact that Teows won the Conn Smythe caused a 200k bonus overage that precipitated some of it. The point being that being right up against the cap can bite you.

 

[Teemusalami204]

Is being a mid cap team and saving between 5 and 10 mil a year so True North makes more money? Or is there other reasons ?

 

[Aavco Cup]

Is being a mid cap team and saving between 5 and 10 mil a year so True North makes more money? Or is there other reasons ?

Toronto isn't a mid cap team, neither are the Oilers. How are they doing?

 

[KingBogo]

They got rid of Buff Ladd Brower Versteeg among others. IIRC the fact that Teows won the Calder caused a 200k bonus overage that precipitated some of it. The point being that being right up against the cap can bite you.

Exactly they made tough choices, but they still had to pay to the cap. What would they have done if they tried to cut another $8 M from the roster to be a mid cap team? I just don't know how we can think we are going to be a contending team without having to pay for our players. There is really no way for us to continue to be a mid cap team and watch our best players leave and convince the fan base they are serious about contending. With the cap at 50% of HRR it should be a balancing act to stay under the cap and not something you are happy to stay $8-10 M below.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Exactly they made tough choices, but they still had to pay to the cap. What would they have done if they tried to cut another $8 M from the roster to be a mid cap team? I just don't know how we can think we are going to be a contending team without having to pay for our players. There is really no way for us to continue to be a mid cap team and watch our best players leave and convince the fan base they are serious about contending. With the cap at 50% of HRR it should be a balancing act to stay under the cap and not something you are happy to stay $8-10 M below.

If we're the defending cup champions that changes the game just a bit no? Right now on the way up I'm comfortable where we are cap wise.

 

[allan5oh]

They got rid of Buff Ladd Brower Versteeg among others. IIRC the fact that Teows won the Conn Smythe caused a 200k bonus overage that precipitated some of it. The point being that being right up against the cap can bite you.

The bonus overage was around $4 million. So that reduced the following years upper limit by $4 million. Plus Kane and Toews got big raises. That's why they had to shed so much. They're in a similar situation this year but not quite as bad.

We are very very far from a situation like that. We haven't even used LTIR once, or had much bonus overage.

 

[KingBogo]

If we're the defending cup champions that changes the game just a bit no? Right now on the way up I'm comfortable where we are cap wise.

But that goes back to a couple posts ago. We are in the second last year where we can still be a mid cap team and keep this team together without spending to the cap. Most of our top players are under paid for their roles. And as I said earlier market forces will correct this in the 16/17 season unless we start divesting ourselves of the higher priced talent. Maybe you can sell this to the fan base if you move Ladd and Buff now. Tough but maybe. But then if you do it again with Little, MP, Trouba, Scheifele, or even Ehlers become "too expensive" the sell gets tougher and tougher. My main point is at 50% HRR spending to the cap should be a reasonable expectation as a team matures, not divesting yourself of talent to stay $8-10 M below it to maximize your profits at the expense of your fans.

 

[Aavco Cup]

But tuhat goes back to a couple posts ago. We are in the second last year where we can still be a mid cap team and keep this team together without spending to the cap. Most of our top players are under paid for their roles. And as I said earlier market forces will correct this in the 16/17 season unless we start divesting ourselves of the higher priced talent. Maybe you can sell this to the fan base if you move Ladd and Buff now. Tough but maybe. But then if you do it again with Little, MP, Trouba, Scheifele, or even Ehlers become "too expensive" the sell gets tougher and tougher. My main point is at 50% HRR spending to the cap should be a reasonable expectation as a team matures, not divesting yourself of talent to stay $8-10 M below it to maximize your profits at the expense of your fans.

I never said it in those terms. I meant that having cap flexibility is a good thing as compared to some teams out there like the Leafs for example. Being flexible means you can spend if you need to. It also means you don't spend recklessly just because you have the space.

 

[Teemusalami204]

Toronto isn't a mid cap team, neither are the Oilers. How are they doing?

I wasn't being sarcastic lol

 

[mcpw]

With my OP I wasn't advocating spending to the cap in the next two seasons. Being a bubble team, cap flexibility is important. Just wanted to get a confirmation that there is no reason to think that we'll be a budget team in 2022 still. And yes, that will influence any decision about Byfuglien. Whether it's possible to build a contending team without spending to the cap - not sure, maybe, but why would you handicap yourself? Sometimes good players on big contracts are available, see Kessel. Build a good team with cap flexibility, and strike when this is the case.

 

[Ljklassen]

let's not forget that once the lockout was done, Chipman clearly stated that with the new CBA the Jets could now be a cap team. as I recall, this meant that when the time was right they would spend as necessary to win.

The mandate seems clear to me over time - get an NHL team back in Wpg and pay the dues to make that happen (i.e. budget team for the first few years). Hire smart management that will draft and develop wisely, knowing the first few years are mulligans with the good will of the fans getting NHL back after 15 yrs. I know I was just geeked to have the best back here, and judging by the season ticket drive in 2011 I'm not alone. to continue - hold on through diversity that was inevitable (shortened season) with the knowledge that the cap would be tied to revenue tightly and at a level that was sustainable.

There is no doubt ownership knew the cba was going to be revised to be favorable to the teams, as it was ridiculous before the newest agreement (this ain't the NFL).

Make sense, eh?

 

[KingBogo]

I never said it in those terms. I meant that having cap flexibility is a good thing as compared to some teams out there like the Leafs for example. Being flexible means you can spend if you need to. It also means you don't spend recklessly just because you have the space.

We agree, that you need not to be reckless with your spending, which I think the Jets have been quite good at. They have avoided chasing big name UFA's where most of the worst mistakes are made. But now the team is starting to mature. It's captain and top point getter (Ladd) and it's best all around player (Buff) will be UFA's in the 16/17 season. At the same time it's 2 young rising stars will becoming off their ELC's (Scheifele & Trouba) To keep all 4 even with nice bridge deals for the young guys would add $6-8 M to the pay roll pushing us it to cap range. While we will be shedding some salary, other then for Pavs it is mostly at the low end of the roster, and will be more then offset be the raises other players will have earned.

In a couple years this team will hit a huge cap crunch as their young players start getting to their long term contract years. To think the Jets can be a mid cap budget team and keep it's current players to me is naive. True we will have to straddle the cap and make the tough choices along the way. But we will need to spend to the cap if we plan on keeping the players we are drafting and developing. If we don't it will soon become obvious to the fans that are forking out the big money to support the team that True North is in it to maximize profits and not win a championship. I for one don't believe that is true.

 

[cheswick]

Exactly they made tough choices, but they still had to pay to the cap. What would they have done if they tried to cut another $8 M from the roster to be a mid cap team? I just don't know how we can think we are going to be a contending team without having to pay for our players. There is really no way for us to continue to be a mid cap team and watch our best players leave and convince the fan base they are serious about contending. With the cap at 50% of HRR it should be a balancing act to stay under the cap and not something you are happy to stay $8-10 M below.

If you do remember the year before the Blackhawks cup win, they screwed up majorly and failed to proper qualify a bunch of their pending RFA's, including versteeg. So rather than them being RFA, they would become UFA so they had to overpay to retain them. Which exasperated their cap issues the following off season.

The cap isn't 50% of HRR, the mid point is 50% of HRR.

 

[Tarks]

If you do remember the year before the Blackhawks cup win, they screwed up majorly and failed to proper qualify a bunch of their pending RFA's, including versteeg. So rather than them being RFA, they would become UFA so they had to overpay to retain them. Which exasperated their cap issues the following off season.

The cap isn't 50% of HRR, the mid point is 50% of HRR.

Very interesting. I did not know this.

 

[surixon]

We agree, that you need not to be reckless with your spending, which I think the Jets have been quite good at. They have avoided chasing big name UFA's where most of the worst mistakes are made. But now the team is starting to mature. It's captain and top point getter (Ladd) and it's best all around player (Buff) will be UFA's in the 16/17 season. At the same time it's 2 young rising stars will becoming off their ELC's (Scheifele & Trouba) To keep all 4 even with nice bridge deals for the young guys would add $6-8 M to the pay roll pushing us it to cap range. While we will be shedding some salary, other then for Pavs it is mostly at the low end of the roster, and will be more then offset be the raises other players will have earned.

In a couple years this team will hit a huge cap crunch as their young players start getting to their long term contract years. To think the Jets can be a mid cap budget team and keep it's current players to me is naive. True we will have to straddle the cap and make the tough choices along the way. But we will need to spend to the cap if we plan on keeping the players we are drafting and developing. If we don't it will soon become obvious to the fans that are forking out the big money to support the team that True North is in it to maximize profits and not win a championship. I for one don't believe that is true.

I think its all about spending prudently. I have no doubt TNSE is fully willing to open the vault for players they deem worthy. They have shown they are willing to make longterm comments to good young players in Kane and Bogo so I have no doubt that Trouba and Scheifele will be compensated accordingly. They have also made longterm commitments to the mid twenties group. I have no doubt they are prepared to pay Ladd. I'm not sure they are prepared to give Buff what he deserves, not because they don't have the ability but more due to fit and organizational strength. Where they seem to squeeze is on the middle 6 complimentary pieces ala Frolik.

 

[Tarks]

I wouldn't be surprised if Buff and his family want to stay in Wpg long term. It will be interesting to see if Buff would be willing to take less money to make this happen. Knowing he has a chance to win here.

 

[TheDeuce]

I think its all about spending prudently. I have no doubt TNSE is fully willing to open the vault for players they deem worthy. They have shown they are willing to make longterm comments to good young players in Kane and Bogo so I have no doubt that Trouba and Scheifele will be compensated accordingly. They have also made longterm commitments to the mid twenties group. I have no doubt they are prepared to pay Ladd. I'm not sure they are prepared to give Buff what he deserves, not because they don't have the ability but more due to fit and organizational strength. Where they seem to squeeze is on the middle 6 complimentary pieces ala Frolik.

One question that should be asked of anyone who opines that the Jets should have been spending to the cap since the start is:


"On who?"


Who should we legitimately have thrown money at in an effort to be a cap team? The big name UFAs who got picked up before the lockout? The Wild did that and they're not a whole lot ahead of us in the standings. There just isn't enough UFA talent out there to justify spending a tonne of dough on. Prudence now creates flexibility later.

As an aside I'd submit that we didn't sign Burmi because of cap pressure. There wasn't any room left to make a worthwhile offer to him but not all is lost. He got some more development time in the KHL and it was on someone else's dime. Not a bad deal, imho.





m.

 

[peg]

An important consideration in all of the is the weakness of the Canadian dollar. The dollar was close to par when the Jets came back. It would now cost about $91 million Canadian to fund a $72 million US payroll. I know Chipman has said that there are some hedges/safeguards in place, but I doubt it would be enough to make up for the sharp drop in the Loonie.

 

[TheDeuce]

An important consideration in all of the is the weakness of the Canadian dollar. The dollar was close to par when the Jets came back. It would now cost about $91 million Canadian to fund a $72 million US payroll. I know Chipman has said that there are some hedges/safeguards in place, but I doubt it would be enough to make up for the sharp drop in the Loonie.

But offsetting that we have the League's internal mechanisms, the new TV deal (denominated in Canadian dollars with the biggest share going to Canadian teams) and the drop in salary cap. PLUS the TV deal being denominated in Loonies means that the drop of the Loonie drops overall League HRR which puts downward pressure on the cap.

The Jets aren't totally insulated from the drop of the Loonie but they're not at it's mercy either.




m.

 

[Dabucs02]

But offsetting that we have the League's internal mechanisms, the new TV deal (denominated in Canadian dollars with the biggest share going to Canadian teams) and the drop in salary cap. PLUS the TV deal being denominated in Loonies means that the drop of the Loonie drops overall League HRR which puts downward pressure on the cap.

The Jets aren't totally insulated from the drop of the Loonie but they're not at it's mercy either.




m.

This is interesting if true do you know what the percentages of an uneven split would

 

[TheDeuce]

This is interesting if true do you know what the percentages of an uneven split would

A quick 'n' dirty Googling gets me this:

That means that what would have worked out to roughly $14.5 million per team will be disproportionately handed over to teams north of the border.


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...teams-the-big-winners-in-new-canadian-tv-deal

Dredger quoted therein so not bad provenance.



m.

 

[sully1410]

If we actually make the post season this year, I don't think its far fromma certainty that Chevy will have a bit more money to play with come free agency this year. I don't think we'll start tossing around cash like the new York rangers do, but the Red Wings never seem to have a problem attracting free agents and I hardly ever see them attach a signing bonus. That's kind of what I want the Jets to aspire to.

Detroit. The city is broke and in ruins. It's every bit as cold there as it is here. Its not exactly the most vibrant city in terms of culture and night life...yet players want to play in Detroit. Its because they have a history of success.

That's exactly what will happen here. Once we establish that we are a successful team we'll be able to get into a room with the big name free agents and when it comes time to go for it...they will spend to the cap.

Mark Chipman is a passionate owner, and more then make money...I think he wants to win. We can hardly blame the pair of them for wanting to be smart about it and make as much as they can now before shelling out extra money down the road.

 

[Ducky10]

If you do remember the year before the Blackhawks cup win, they screwed up majorly and failed to proper qualify a bunch of their pending RFA's, including versteeg. So rather than them being RFA, they would become UFA so they had to overpay to retain them. Which exasperated their cap issues the following off season.

The cap isn't 50% of HRR, the mid point is 50% of HRR.

Correct, it's why Dale Tallon was fired, there was 8 qualifying offers he was late on, causing the NHLPA to file a grievance.

 

[Gm0ney]

If we actually make the post season this year, I don't think its far fromma certainty that Chevy will have a bit more money to play with come free agency this year. I don't think we'll start tossing around cash like the new York rangers do, but the Red Wings never seem to have a problem attracting free agents and I hardly ever see them attach a signing bonus. That's kind of what I want the Jets to aspire to.

Detroit. The city is broke and in ruins. It's every bit as cold there as it is here. Its not exactly the most vibrant city in terms of culture and night life...yet players want to play in Detroit. Its because they have a history of success.

That's exactly what will happen here. Once we establish that we are a successful team we'll be able to get into a room with the big name free agents and when it comes time to go for it...they will spend to the cap.

Mark Chipman is a passionate owner, and more then make money...I think he wants to win. We can hardly blame the pair of them for wanting to be smart about it and make as much as they can now before shelling out extra money down the road.

Detroit's not as bad as you suggest. The suburbs of Detroit are quite nice. And Detroit isn't what a Winnipegger would consider 'cold' (avg. January high there is 0 C).

But yeah, winning counts for something. Right now Winnipeg has nothing going for it (unless "play somewhere that gives a **** about hockey" is high on your list - but considering the dismal player/agent rankings of most Canadian franchise's desirability, I'm guessing it's not a big seller).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Detroit's not as bad as you suggest. The suburbs of Detroit are quite nice. And Detroit isn't what a Winnipegger would consider 'cold' (avg. January high there is 0 C).

But yeah, winning counts for something. Right now Winnipeg has nothing going for it (unless "play somewhere that gives a **** about hockey" is high on your list - but considering the dismal player/agent rankings of most Canadian franchise's desirability, I'm guessing it's not a big seller).

I just cannot accept that is NOT a big seller. Just doesn't outrank winning. Winning is the trump card.