Speculation: The Brewer deal was a lead up to something bigger in the offseason.

[hfdshdh]

Something definitely seems to be....

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Brewing.

 

[91Stammer*]

Pointless thread and speculation. We just picked Andreas Johnson in 200s so we will likely be okay with seventh rounders. Even if they dont amount to anything I will still take a higher draft pick if possible. I will take Engvall over Biggs everyday and Loov, Johnson, Brown over Gauthier, something to learn here.

 

[Nithoniniel]

What are the odds a 5th rounder plays even 100 games in the NHL as anything more than a journeyman? Let's be generous and say 5%?

Did the Leafs just pay 750K for that chance ( 1/4 of of Brewer's salary for the rest of the year, minus Holzer's pay).

Just how rich do you have to be to play at those stakes?

Each individual draft pick past the 45 mark or so have a low chance of success, not to mention becoming an impact player. That's pretty much why you stack up on quantity of picks, so to increase the chance that at least one of them turn into a real asset.

Getting a 5th don't do much. But when you add it to a constantly growing list of picks, it can help make a difference.

The Leafs are not in same universe at developing players!

Zetterberg went from a long-shot of a prospect with a perceived limited upside to a budding star player in Timrå, Sweden. Detroit didn't touch him for most of his development. They lucked out, and we have to hold out hope that we can too.

 

[Turk Broda]

Pekka Rinne was drafted in the 8th round (258th overall). To dismiss draft picks in the 5th or later rounds is foolish. That same draft (2004) the Leafs selected Justin Pogge in the 3rd round (90th overall). Obviously earlier rounds yield better players on average, but the more picks, the increased chances of landing the next Pekka Rinne (we all hope).

 

[Hunters Rule]

Yep. If you don't make the picks, you won't get the players. If any team should know this by now it is the Leafs.

They want Hunter to have as many as they can get.........

 

[Marshy]

I know you can find gems in the later rounds. Just can't believe the premium that is being paid for such low odds. Yes I realize it's about 10 - 15 % you can find a useful player. You can find useful free wallets too, and Santorelli/Winnik players are always available. We know agents are now loooking to the Leafs as a way to showcase and rejuvenate their clients careers.

 

[Apotheosis]

How many playoff games have gotten with that bunch so far?

Horrible logic, but from your posts that I usually see this isn't surprising. You can't even differentiate horrible play management (hence the lack of playoffs) from quality players drafted later.

 

[LeafSteel]

I don't understand the point of this trade.

That there is a "scratch my back, I'll scratch yours" is wishful thinking.

I would have preferred to keep Holzer and re-sign him next season. I don't have a great deal of confidence in our scouting to find value in the later rounds and Brewer is just plain done.

Could have done without this trade, but worse things have happened this season, right? If the Leafs felt they couldn't re-sign Holzer, they may as well get something for him, rather than lose him for nothing.

BB

 

[Shwaguy*]

Yeah, like a 5th rounder will ever play in the NHL. Possible, but, unlikely!

We have a lot of success in late rounds lately.

Brown, Johnson, Loov...

 

[Al14]

Completely stupid and irrelevant comment

How so? People listing players that were selected by the Leafs in the later rounds is just as irrelevant when none has got us a Cup!

At least Detroit's late rounders have got them a Cup, and, continue to get them to the playoffs!

 

[Al14]

We have a lot of success in late rounds lately.

Brown, Johnson, Loov...

Only prospects that still have a great deal to prove! Not quite in the success realm yet IMHO.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Most of that money has been spent. There's only about 900K left -- minus the 200K left on Holzner -- works out to about 700K.

So, let's roll with the conspiracy then. Leafs did Anaheim a $700k favour this year. Did Anaheim need around $700k of cap relief at this time? Supposedly Anaheim would need to get something now from Toronto to be motivated to do a favour later for the Leafs.

Just looked at a couple of sites. Doesn't look the Ducks were tight against the cap. They are at $51 million now.

 

[Hyperglide]

Well Anaheim did just get Wisniewski. Maybe they needed the extra space to fit him in?

 

[Loosie]

How many playoff games have gotten with that bunch so far?

Carrick, Loov, Brown, Johnson and Bibeau are the only ones that have not seen playoff time. Not all in the list where with the Leafs, but still, the only ones that haven't seen playoff time are also those that have yet to see NHL action prior to this season.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I think sicne they got Wiz they are good, unless they let Beauchemin go

 

[Al14]

Carrick, Loov, Brown, Johnson and Bibeau are the only ones that have not seen playoff time. Not all in the list where with the Leafs, but still, the only ones that haven't seen playoff time are also those that have yet to see NHL action prior to this season.

Let's hope they'll somehow get us there!

 

[ITM]

How so? People listing players that were selected by the Leafs in the later rounds is just as irrelevant when none has got us a Cup!

At least Detroit's late rounders have got them a Cup, and, continue to get them to the playoffs!

Teams, one team a season, gets a Cup, in the right circumstances, and it's never simply a function of saying, no Cup, no good.

Listing a player like Kaberle, who I believe saw two Conference Finals, is a way of saying, having a chance at a decent prospect is better than having an asset with diminishing or diminished value.

Using the logic that says later round picks who have led teams to Cups equates to reasonable value, is inverse thinking. If what one team, did once without intention and against likely probability was normative, you would see any number of organizations taking perfectly adequate though average assets and "covertly" trade them to other teams for their "unknown gems" of assets located in the latter rounds of a draft.

What made latter round picks like Zetterberg and Datsyuk a possibility is more than simply the potential they reached as players. It began with Jimmy Devellano and his selection of Yzerman. It then required a never again repeated draft in 89 where Detroit's scouts had the foresight to essentially draft a HOF starting lineup from Europe. Then it required moving past a decent coach in Jacques Demers to Scotty Bowman. Then it took Cups won by clubs without Zetterberg and Datsyuk by fantastically coached players in a players environment with stable, hockey-first minded ownership that provides levels of influence, example and protection for it's players.

Equating the chance provided with THAT Detroit club, to any Toronto club in the years since the 1967 club, and I'd say including ANY Toronto club, is just pure uninformed assertion.

It isn't Detroit's "late rounders" that got Detroit Cups. It's Detroit that's got their "late rounders" to the point where they could get to the Cup.

And we ain't Detroit...yet.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Well Anaheim did just get Wisniewski. Maybe they needed the extra space to fit him in?

Ya, I just googled a few sites for the Ducks cap info. I have no idea if its really accurate. Maybe they were going to exceed cap when they acquired Wiz.

 

[67Cup]

The odds are that a fifth rounder will never make the NHL. Every once in a long while you get a solid player or even a star. But the more likely best case is a bottom six forward or bottom pairing D-man.... Which is what Holzer is. In other words a fifth rounder gives you a long shot at another Holzer.

If management knows Holzer is unlikely to sign, sure, get what you can. But if they would have had a chance at signing him again the trade seems a little odd.

 

[Super Mega]

guys, guys.... imagine for a second

what if we

mcdavid

 

[RhinoD]

I think it is pretty clear Dion wont be back next year, so there is a possibility that this deal now was so that Anaheim will take him in the offseason and not make us retain salary. But I doubt it.

A more logical reason why we didnt unload Dion today...

By rule, a team can only retain salary on three players at a time. So basically if we would have traded Dion today to Detroit we would have three retentions and it would be almost impossible to unload Kessel or Lupul in the offseason. (Barring a blockbuster trade where big money players were traded for each other, but no team is going to give up a star with a big contract for Kessel).

Basically, in the offseason we can only retain money on Kessel or Phaneuf, so management will need to do a player-for-player trade with one of them. No sense in pigeon holing yourself for a sketchy deal at the deadline when you can have a whole offseason to pull something off after the tank ends and you see where you stack up in the draft.

 

[dimi78]

Pekka Rinne was drafted in the 8th round (258th overall). To dismiss draft picks in the 5th or later rounds is foolish. That same draft (2004) the Leafs selected Justin Pogge in the 3rd round (90th overall). Obviously earlier rounds yield better players on average, but the more picks, the increased chances of landing the next Pekka Rinne (we all hope).

That's not how it works. Just pick more to increase your chances... You make your own luck by developing players by having a proper development program. It's called draft & develop... The Leafs still don't have a clue about development.

lot's of talk about Detroit. Have people even noticed what they've done these past 20 years? They don't play your typical dump & chase, grind the wall good old Canadian hockey through out there organization. They've gone the road of more European Red Army Russian puck possession hockey have drafted hard towards players of this ilk. All the players they bring in through the draft compliment each other in playing style towards a skilled game and this has huge benefits when keeping guys down in the AHL they have talented players playing with talented players in a skilled puck possession game.

What do the Leafs do? Heck they can't even get it right at the NHL level to have there good players and young players play with good players.... so we get what we get. Good players on islands and they don't develop do to the surrounding is garbage.

 

[Number13]

Not sure what the point was of moving Holzer for Brewer and a 5th was? Seems pointless. Holzer (a RHD) could of been resigned for 750K next year to be a 6th/7th D player.

And he still could.. he's a ufa this summer. This way if he doesn't sign, the leafs secured a pick. Smart asset management.

 

[seanlinden]

I think it is pretty clear Dion wont be back next year, so there is a possibility that this deal now was so that Anaheim will take him in the offseason and not make us retain salary. But I doubt it.

A more logical reason why we didnt unload Dion today...

By rule, a team can only retain salary on three players at a time. So basically if we would have traded Dion today to Detroit we would have three retentions and it would be almost impossible to unload Kessel or Lupul in the offseason. (Barring a blockbuster trade where big money players were traded for each other, but no team is going to give up a star with a big contract for Kessel).

Basically, in the offseason we can only retain money on Kessel or Phaneuf, so management will need to do a player-for-player trade with one of them. No sense in pigeon holing yourself for a sketchy deal at the deadline when you can have a whole offseason to pull something off after the tank ends and you see where you stack up in the draft.

The Leafs aren't going to retain salary on Dion Phaneuf, it's a very simple concept.

The real reason that the Leafs didn't trade Phaneuf is pretty simple -- it's simply not the right time to do so. If the Leafs are going to be without Phaneuf, they're going to need at a couple of valuable roster players back and futures. The teams looking to add at the deadline are generally looking to do so with minimal impact to their roster.

 

[gregmash23]

I think its a tank move to be honest.. 35 year old aging and unmotivated dman and he's -6 on a team like the ducks.. In addition we now have 7 Nhl D again and yes I realize that can be disputed with the ability of some of these guys.. BUT the point I'm ultimately trying to make is that they don't have to keep calling up guys like Grandberg and Macwilliam now who clearly aren't ready for the NHL yet just to fester in a poisonous environment. Our D is now made up of 2 young D in Rielly and Gardiner who are learning, Polak who can can continue show them what it takes to play in this league.. a burned out Phaneuf, an aging and physically beat down Robidas, a waiver pick up in Erixon and Brewer who is clearly near the end of his time in the league as well..

The Leafs made moves to tank more then people think..