Speculation: The big Myth we seem to accept!

[Daisy Jane]

Lets see what happens .. Here is Shanny and Bob McKenzie comments from this last weekend.

are you not seeing it?
if they don't get everything done what they wanted to get done that's fine. He didn't freaking say "we'll be done, that's it, the plan 's complete now, y'all."

that's McKenzie's opinion. And considering up until draft day Shanahan wasn't leaking out anything - him (or anyone else) speculating what Shanahan plans on doing is exactly that. Speculation.

Bob McKenzie also said if he were a betting man, the Leafs weren't getting Babcock because "why would he come here"

and. we have Babcock.
Babcock said he wouldn't have come here if the Leafs were planning on doing this half-assed.

so basically. you're choosing to believe someone who is speculating, vs. choosing to believe someone who flat out said he wouldn't have chosen Toronto if they were going to do things as they've always done it before.

 

[Drew75]

Lets see what happens .. Here is Shanny and Bob McKenzie comments from this last weekend.

1) Shanahan said that he's willing to live with "not getting done everything they wanted to get done" if that what it comes to. If you listen to the interview, he's referring to wanting to trade players like Kessel and Bozak. etc, but he'd rather keep them than give them away.

Message straight from the horses mouth: He WANTs to trade core players, but not for lowball offers.

2) McKenzie said he believes the Leafs may revert to a hybrid rebuild.

Message from the guy who has openly admitted he has NO idea what is happening with the Leafs and is completely guessing (listen to his interview, he's careful to say it): He guesses the Leafs may not do a full rebuild.

And yet .... here we are taking the SECOND one as fact!

 

[Stephen]

I see the team building a group that will compete heavily during the build and accepting bad contracts to enhance trade value is not likely in managements plans.

Young and competive over a number of year until the right pieces are together to be a contender is the way i see it being built.

Management wants a quality team through this. They won't be accepting losses but will be trying to win. Learning to win to be more accurate.

Expectations of team quality seem to be to low in that losses are expected. Competiveness will be a priority of the build i suspect.

I think it will be more fun than pain actually.

To me, you have to go hard in one direction (losing), make the most of it, and go hard towards winning again.

The past four years have featured 3 epic meltdowns and we have Rielly, Nylander and Marner to show for it. If they half assed it both ways, we might have a team of Grigorenko, Vrana and Crouse or some other lesser combination and not nearly the same potential as we do now.

Take your developmental lumps for another little while, and emerge stronger than ever.

 

[Quares27]

Rebuilding isnt losing on purpose. Rebuilding is putting together a team that cant win even if they put in the effort. This is why if we're tanking we need to get rid of guys like Kessel/Phaneuf/Bozak/etc. Yes they were horrible in the 2nd half but if they put in effort next season we're going to be picking 12th-15th and that's not what we want. The idea is to have a bunch of young guys and grinders who play hard but dont have enough great players to win consistently. So that's why we should be going into next season with Kadri-Holland as our top 2 centers, a young D core, a 3rd line made up of young guys like Bailey/Panik and a tough/grinder 4th line

 

[4thline]

I don't and never expected a scorched earth, burn it to the ground, multi-year tank rebuild.
Even if Kessel, Phaneuf, Bozak , and Lupul were all moved, what tanking team has in the system

mid- high value 25 year olds like
JVR, Kadri, Gardiner

Top recent high draft picks like
Rielly, Nylander, Marner,

on Day 1 of a rebuild, and proceed to suck for several more years?

Look for maybe one more year of dismantling, then emulating Buffalo/Calgary by turning surplus picks and prospects into serviceable young players. The new cba doesn't allow for stockpiling like Edmonton, that team has the length of McDavid's elc before it explodes. Babcock and Shanahan want to build a long term, sustainable winner. Not tank, put together a team with a short window, blow it up and do it again.

You can see it in the way Hunter drafted, high upside picks in all rounds, not wanting to be reliant on putting this team together one high pick at a time. Setting up a constant pipeline.

Obviously getting future assets for Phaneuf and Kessel would expedite this, but if those assets aren't available then might as well keep them, and rebuild the bones of this team on the fly.

 

[nuck]

are you not seeing it?
if they don't get everything done what they wanted to get done that's fine. He didn't freaking say "we'll be done, that's it, the plan 's complete now, y'all."

that's McKenzie's opinion. And considering up until draft day Shanahan wasn't leaking out anything - him (or anyone else) speculating what Shanahan plans on doing is exactly that. Speculation.

Bob McKenzie also said if he were a betting man, the Leafs weren't getting Babcock because "why would he come here"

and. we have Babcock.
Babcock said he wouldn't have come here if the Leafs were planning on doing this half-assed.

so basically. you're choosing to believe someone who is speculating, vs. choosing to believe someone who flat out said he wouldn't have chosen Toronto if they were going to do things as they've always done it before.

I don't think Mess necessarily believes that it is to be as Bobby Mac suggests, he just likes to use the possibility to stir the pot. The Leafs interest in talking to certain UFAs more confusing than BM's speculation though. Beleskey and Franson seem like a waste of time to a rebuilding club that has made no room for them. There is enough different things in play I am not sure we can rule anything out until some additions or subtractions actually happen.

 

[MikeBabchuk]

I'm not trying but as long as Leafs don't trade away their vets as Bob McKenzie has stated a hybrid rebuild is the sense he is getting from Leafs camp now that Babcock is here.

What are you going to call it if Phil and Dion are still here next year and Leafs go UFA shopping signing players like Franson to term and dollars and fill roster spots with more vets?

Ew enough of that pylon.

 

[TNCHL]

Tank!

 

[burpsalot]

If you keep Kessel and he goes out and scores 35-40 goals under Babcock then Leafs will win games. If Bob McKenzie is right Leafs are not actively shopping Phaneuf as Babcock would like to work with him, so essentially don't just give him away, then Leafs are going to win games.. If Bernier returns to form and Leafs play a better possession system then Leafs are going to win even more games.

The more games you win the weaker your draft position becomes as you are no longer adding top 5 picks level prospects your picking in the teens instead.

The less players you move because their values are low and the return offers match that the more you move towards a hybrid rebuild and not a desired scorched earth and draft rebuild.

If Leafs go out tomorrow and offer Franson a 6 year by $6 mil deal (as rumoured) then again that is not what a draft rebuild plan would do.

Until we actually see Phil and Dion moved and as Shanny said in his PC after the draft we are comfortable starting next year with them then fans have to accept Hybrid rebuild and not building this team with top 5 picks in the next few years.

If after scoring 35-40 goals the Leafs trade him, does that mean they are doing a Hybrid-hybrid-rebuild?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I see the team building a group that will compete heavily during the build and accepting bad contracts to enhance trade value is not likely in managements plans.

Young and competive over a number of year until the right pieces are together to be a contender is the way i see it being built.

Management wants a quality team through this. They won't be accepting losses but will be trying to win. Learning to win to be more accurate.

Expectations of team quality seem to be to low in that losses are expected. Competiveness will be a priority of the build i suspect.

I think it will be more fun than pain actually.

The team will of course play to win and with Babcock here anything else will not be accepted. But there is a big difference building a team that have a good chance of winning now and building a team that because of lack of quality and experience dont win enough yet.

Sure, players and coaches always play to win. That's inbred. However, GMs can certainly set a team up to lose, tank or whatever.

 

[Mess]

If after scoring 35-40 goals the Leafs trade him, does that mean they are doing a Hybrid-hybrid-rebuild?

If Kessel scores 40 goals and PPG under Babcock Leafs management will view that as the coach is getting the most out of the player and thus keep him instead of trading him.

What would be the motivation to trade him as very few players playing well are seldom traded?

Keeping Kessel and rehabilitating him under the new coach is exactly what Hybrid rebuild would constitute.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

If they go with a hybrid rebuild, that is basically just P.R. speak to describe other management teams trying to low ball us on our unwanted but better assets.

LOL. Quite possible some truth to this unfortunately.

 

[4thline]

If Kessel and Phaneuf are kept move Bozak and Lupul for whatever to effect the culture change, JVR for a kings ransom to add young assets.

Lupul with some retention for
Bennett+Scuderi+conditional pick

Bozak for 2nd or 3rd + 4th

JVR for 2016 1st + (theodore/ritchie) +rakell (example)

sign Frolik (unnecesary but wouldn't make me mad)

Bennett- Kadri- Frolik
Rakell-Holland-Kessel
Komarov-cheap ufa-Panik
young roster battles, cheap ufa's

Rielly-Phaneuf
Gardiner- Polak
Percy-Robidas-scuderi


insert when ready (long term role, not necessarily rookie role)
Marner-1C/1W
Nylander-1C/1W
Theodore- top 4 d

 

[diceman934]

We are rebuilding....nothing has changed other then the fact that we have a bunch of unlikeable players we want to move. It is going to take time for some of them to be moved.....Kessel is the one player that they do not want to be wearing the Leafs jersey any more and he will be moved....

The rest like Bozak, Dion, Lupul and others it will be done over the next year or so....with Bozak likely to be the next player following Kessel out the door as I do not expect him back as well.

 

[Ovate]

I don't and never expected a scorched earth, burn it to the ground, multi-year tank rebuild.
Even if Kessel, Phaneuf, Bozak , and Lupul were all moved, what tanking team has in the system

mid- high value 25 year olds like
JVR, Kadri, Gardiner

Top recent high draft picks like
Rielly, Nylander, Marner,

on Day 1 of a rebuild, and proceed to suck for several more years?

Look for maybe one more year of dismantling, then emulating Buffalo/Calgary by turning surplus picks and prospects into serviceable young players. The new cba doesn't allow for stockpiling like Edmonton, that team has the length of McDavid's elc before it explodes. Babcock and Shanahan want to build a long term, sustainable winner. Not tank, put together a team with a short window, blow it up and do it again.

You can see it in the way Hunter drafted, high upside picks in all rounds, not wanting to be reliant on putting this team together one high pick at a time. Setting up a constant pipeline.

Obviously getting future assets for Phaneuf and Kessel would expedite this, but if those assets aren't available then might as well keep them, and rebuild the bones of this team on the fly.

The way I see it, we a couple of young, top 4 defensemen (Rielly, Gardiner), and four young, top 6 forwards (Nylander, Kadri, JVR, Marner). If JVR gets traded, we'll get another young top 6/top 4 player in return.

We have enough bottom pairing and bottom 6 prospects and young players that we don't have to worry about them.

At this point, we only really need a couple more top 6 forwards and a couple more top 4 defense. And that's not including the borderline prospects who could break into those categories, like Brown, Percy, Dermott, and Bracco. Plus, if we're only a second pairing defenseman or second line forward away, we can grab that in free agency.

Add in the returns on our older vets, and there's just no a need for a multi-year, scorched earth rebuild. Our rebuild started in 2012.

So the question is, how bad do we need to be for the next year in order to draft a top pairing defenseman? Especially with the new lottery system, a bottom 10 finish will likely be fine. Which means bubble team until the trade deadline and a "collapse" after we sell off our free agents.

Goaltending is the position with the most question marks around it. Bernier could be "the guy", but he also might not be and we don't have any great prospects coming up in case he doesn't pan out.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Calgary's hybrid rebuild seems to be going ok. Shouldn't they still be trying to suck for another 2-3 seasons using most of the logic in here?

 

[burpsalot]

If Kessel scores 40 goals and PPG under Babcock Leafs management will view that as the coach is getting the most out of the player and thus keep him instead of trading him.

What would be the motivation to trade him as very few players playing well are seldom traded?

Keeping Kessel and rehabilitating him under the new coach is exactly what Hybrid rebuild would constitute.

The motivation to trade him is that they may not see the time frame of competing for the cup until 5-7 years down the road & that by then, even a resurrected Kessel's value would have diminished to a point that it is wisest to sell high. That's the rebuild using trading assets when the deal makes sense, not because someone else has a self proclaimed time frame.

 

[4thline]

The way I see it, we a couple of young, top 4 defensemen (Rielly, Gardiner), and four young, top 6 forwards (Nylander, Kadri, JVR, Marner). If JVR gets traded, we'll get another young top 6/top 4 player in return.

We have enough bottom pairing and bottom 6 prospects and young players that we don't have to worry about them.

At this point, we only really need a couple more top 6 forwards and a couple more top 4 defense. And that's not including the borderline prospects who could break into those categories, like Brown, Percy, Dermott, and Bracco. Plus, if we're only a second pairing defenseman or second line forward away, we can grab that in free agency.

Add in the returns on our older vets, and there's just no a need for a multi-year, scorched earth rebuild. Our rebuild started in 2012.

So the question is, how bad do we need to be for the next year in order to draft a top pairing defenseman? Especially with the new lottery system, a bottom 10 finish will likely be fine. Which means bubble team until the trade deadline and a "collapse" after we sell off our free agents.

Goaltending is the position with the most question marks around it. Bernier could be "the guy", but he also might not be and we don't have any great prospects coming up in case he doesn't pan out.

Completely agree. we have pieces in place, one year more in the basement, two at most. Why waste what we already have. Don't have to level a house and stare at the rubble for three years to rebuild it. Gut the interior room by room replacing what you don't like and add a nice new addition.

 

[ULF_55]

Action not words.

Rebuild is truly underway.

 

[burpsalot]

I guess McKenzie was wrong, no Hybrid rebuild.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Well the doubt was right out there in this thread. I truly believe this is a full out rebuild and never doubted it for a minute.

The signings to this point are looking like plenty more changes are coming. Hell Kadri is not even off the hook with management. No matter what spin is put on this one year deal to Kadri, its simply telling him we want you to prove yourself because we don't trust giving you a long term deal.

Bozak is likely gone next for the first promising prospect or a second rounder. Maybe even a third rounder only.

The players signed show that good work ethic is the top priority. I really like the way management is exploiting the exposure positive for enticing UFA's also.

The percieved white washing that apparently Pittsburgh pulled off in the Kessel trade is very telling of a sports media out of touch i think.

The 15% salary retention surely speaks volumes of how badly management wanted Kessel out the door but still is not terrible. I have absolutely no qualms with this deal.

Still more work to do yet though.

 

[Orfieus]

I think this up coming season is going to be brutal. Hopefully none of our young kids will be on the lineup which means there really is nothing to look forward to next season. Maybe the odd game here and there for Nylander but I would rather keep him in the AHL as a centre.

However, the 2017 season is going to be a lot of fun with a lot of our kids being brought up full time. At least then we have something to watch and be excited for.

My advice, find another team to follow next year. Personally my 2nd favourite team is Calgary ever since their playoff run back in 2004.

 

[wulfio*]

it's hilarious how the fans are expecting management to gut this team in a single day. There's a reason why the leafs were terrible. And it started with our highest salaries. Maybe the homers will finally realize those guys aren't as good as they thought.

It might take a half a season, or even a year to move some guys. Some people need some objectivity here.

Management has been concise and consistent in their message. Why would anyone believe they are lying to the public? that's frigging absurd. This isn't high school.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I think this up coming season is going to be brutal. Hopefully none of our young kids will be on the lineup which means there really is nothing to look forward to next season. Maybe the odd game here and there for Nylander but I would rather keep him in the AHL as a centre.

However, the 2017 season is going to be a lot of fun with a lot of our kids being brought up full time. At least then we have something to watch and be excited for.

My advice, find another team to follow next year. Personally my 2nd favourite team is Calgary ever since their playoff run back in 2004.

There is some good trade deadline potential for gathering more picks which would give a inclination that there will potentially be callups late season for some fun.

Brutal is not a expectation for me of the team this year. Underwhelming might sum them up in the end though. There is some high end work ethic brought in already and veteran leadership also.

There is so many possibilities available in this rebuild i will fully enjoy watching it pan out. I'm likin it.

 

[Orfieus]

There is some good trade deadline potential for gathering more picks which would give a inclination that there will potentially be callups late season for some fun.

Brutal is not a expectation for me of the team this year. Underwhelming might sum them up in the end though. There is some high end work ethic brought in already and veteran leadership also.

There is so many possibilities available in this rebuild i will fully enjoy watching it pan out. I'm likin it.

But to watch games and cheer for players to do well just for the sake to increase their trade potential, man that is depressing if that is the most to look forward to next season.