Speculation: The big Myth we seem to accept!

[BlueBaron]

I am not sure how old you were at the time of Cujo and Belfour (you can call those guys as elite level), they used to face over 35 shots every night and the club used to qualify for the playoffs and the goal tending was a bit part of those playoffs

We didn't have too many deep runs at that time but we needed elite goaltending to get us in the playoffs because we have been crappy defensively since Pat Burns.

 

[The Big Chief]

Last year under Babcock Detroit was tied for 7th best in least shots against 28.3 per game, while the Leafs were 29th in the NHL with the 2nd most at ~ 34 shots a night.

Under Babcock's system Leafs could get to 30 or below on average a night and that will help the Leafs goalies.

Perfect. It's really simple - the less shots against = less chances to allow goals.

We can argue about that, but Cujo and Belfour used to face that many shots day in and day out, Bernier hasn't proven any thing as yet

His Save % was .912 and GAA was 2.87 last year and both these stats below average (actually pretty bad) of all the starting goalies. I know last year was horrible for any of the roster players, but calling him fantastic is a bit of a stretch

.912% and a 2.87 GAA is actually a terrific stat line considering the season we had. Now imagine he faced almost 30% less shots per night.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I see the team building a group that will compete heavily during the build and accepting bad contracts to enhance trade value is not likely in managements plans.

Young and competive over a number of year until the right pieces are together to be a contender is the way i see it being built.

Management wants a quality team through this. They won't be accepting losses but will be trying to win. Learning to win to be more accurate.

Expectations of team quality seem to be to low in that losses are expected. Competiveness will be a priority of the build i suspect.

I think it will be more fun than pain actually.

Yes. Let's have our cake and eat it too. Pain can be painful.

 

[number72]

The Leafs will have difficulty dealing players and getting a good return so they wont deal them.

Will be looking at UFA to add to the team current talent.

With Babcock coaching the Leafs will finish outside the top 10 but will be desiring to draft rebuild without those top picks.

The hybrid rebuild is in effect or as the past regime called it retooling on the fly the only difference being Leafs will not be trading away top picks for instant help unless the right players are available. Most importantly Leafs with Hunter scouting believe they will be able to unearth talent in all rounds of the draft not just the 1st round.

more and more this sounds like burke's tenure. Burke first panned to build through draft but happened upon kessel and accelerated the team's rebuild.

Shanny found Babcock this time and as with kessel there is no way we can take now so they will start an accelerated rebuild.

 

[Steve]

IMO, this will be a bubble team for the playoffs and will end up drafting 10-15. I REALLY hope I'm wrong but I believe that team from the past few years is a playoff team that consistently choked. Kessel is gone and the rest are still there and throw in some players who have something to prove on short contracts. i don't think Babcock will change much but he will have them compete and that's all they needed last year.

Also, if the leafs were REALLY serious about adding picks and flexing their muscle, they would have traded for Sharp, retained and shipped him out somewhere else. Sharp at 50% would have brought a solid return. Same goes for Semin and Santorelli - although this could change.

Lastly, JVR has to go for this to work. He will return a small ransom and his numbers are going to drop without Kessel.

Anyway, I think this team will surprise and end in the middle of the pack.

 

[613Leafer]

more and more this sounds like burke's tenure. Burke first panned to build through draft but happened upon kessel and accelerated the team's rebuild.

Shanny found Babcock this time and as with kessel there is no way we can take now so they will start an accelerated rebuild.

Accellerated rebuild? We sold off Kessel, didnt we? And our UFA signings, you see any big Komi, Clarkson, etc type of signings? What about trading for NHL players, you see them trade for Bolland, Liles, etc type of veterans?

This doesnt look anything like an accellerated rebuild. We added five draft picks and Leipsic last trade deadline, we added another draft pick and two prospects via the Kessel trade, and now we're setup to go into the season with a bunch of 1-year contract trade deadline bait signings.

We already have Marner, Rielly, Nylander, and Kapanen, not to mention drafted 9 times in 2015, have a bunch of extra 2016 picks, and will likely add another 6-8 picks/prospects for the 2016/2017 drafts via the pending UFAs that we have and other former core players under contract.

Plus Babcock keeps saying how the first few years will be painful, and how they have to keep getting Hunter more draft picks. Literally no one in the organization is saying things that imply they want to aggressively push for playoffs ASAP, and none of their actions are going in that dirction either.

 

[Gramsci]

I disagree. I think Bernier will be a fantastic #1 if he faces 25-30 shots a night, which I expect under Babcock.

Remember, he's been facing upwards of 35 shots nightly - that's insane wear and tear on your body.

Fortunately, we have data to test this theory.

For the 2015 season, Bernier's save percentage is significantly worse when facing fewer than 30 shots per game.

Fewer than 30 shots: 0.886 save percentage (27 games)

More than 30 shots: 0.925 save percentage (31 games)

Not only was he no better with fewer shots, he was significantly worse.

This fits with what is widely viewed as his major weakness -- maintaining focus. If he's not busy, he loses focus and his numbers take a big hit.

This suggests that, in fact, he will perform worse with a coach like Babcock.

 

[613Leafer]

Fortunately, we have data to test this theory.

For the 2015 season, Bernier's save percentage is significantly worse when facing fewer than 30 shots per game.

Fewer than 30 shots: 0.886 save percentage (27 games)

More than 30 shots: 0.925 save percentage (31 games)

Not only was he no better with fewer shots, he was significantly worse.

This fits with what is widely viewed as his major weakness -- maintaining focus. If he's not busy, he loses focus and his numbers take a big hit.

This suggests that, in fact, he will perform worse with a coach like Babcock.

Does that control for the fact that in games that he's struggling in, he gets pulled partway through and thus couldnt possibly get up to 30+ shots, even if he were on pace to get that many?

 

[Gramsci]

Does that control for the fact that in games that he's struggling in, he gets pulled partway through and thus couldnt possibly get up to 30+ shots?

If you remove games with fewer than 2 periods of play, the result is much the same for 30 shots or fewer: 0.898 save percentage.

 

[thewave]

Accellerated rebuild? We sold off Kessel, didnt we? And our UFA signings, you see any big Komi, Clarkson, etc type of signings? What about trading for NHL players, you see them trade for Bolland, Liles, etc type of veterans?

This doesnt look anything like an accellerated rebuild. We added five draft picks and Leipsic last trade deadline, we added another draft pick and two prospects via the Kessel trade, and now we're setup to go into the season with a bunch of 1-year contract trade deadline bait signings.

We already have Marner, Rielly, Nylander, and Kapanen, not to mention drafted 9 times in 2015, have a bunch of extra 2016 picks, and will likely add another 6-8 picks/prospects for the 2016/2017 drafts via the pending UFAs that we have and other former core players under contract.

Plus Babcock keeps saying how the first few years will be painful, and how they have to keep getting Hunter more draft picks. Literally no one in the organization is saying things that imply they want to aggressively push for playoffs ASAP, and none of their actions are going in that dirction either.

From what I can see.

Signing short term assets who they feel are useful to playoff teams in trade.

Banking that Babcock can coach them into playing responsibly helps make them more likely to have a reasonable year.

Playing fringe top 6 players in places to succeed or pad stats.

I would say that's a rebuild method. I think they just want to raise the value of guys as best possible and sell at the TDL. Then probably move Older Marlies up to fill the holes and reduce the contracts again for next season. Maybe sell a larger core piece or two from here to then.

As of now.

Nylander, Marner, Goat, Kappy, Brown, Percy and a few more look like they will crack the lineup in a couple years.

If they get a really good haul of picks and prospect from TDL trades then I don't see why they can't combine some picks etc to bring in a "real" players or two as rentals who likely will sign. There are only so many players you can develop at the same time anyways and we want a team that's at least ok when we inject guys like Marner and Nylander.

 

[Gramsci]

Interestingly, the results are even more pronounced for the 2013-14 season, which was a much better season for Bernier overall than 2014-15.

Removing any games for which Bernier played fewer than 2 periods:

Fewer than 30 shots: 0.893 save percentage (15 games)

More than 30 shots: 0.933 save percentage (35 games)

The results for last season were not an anomaly. He's just not very good when he's not being peppered with shots.

 

[napoleon in rags]

Interestingly, the results are even more pronounced for the 2013-14 season, which was a much better season for Bernier overall than 2014-15.

Removing any games for which Bernier played fewer than 2 periods:

Fewer than 30 shots: 0.893 save percentage (15 games)

More than 30 shots: 0.933 save percentage (35 games)

The results for last season were not an anomaly. He's just not very good when he's not being peppered with shots.

Interesting. Would it be too much trouble to post that data in table form listing several top to middle of the pack goalies? Would be interesting to compare.

 

[realgoodleafs]

Fortunately, we have data to test this theory.

For the 2015 season, Bernier's save percentage is significantly worse when facing fewer than 30 shots per game.

Fewer than 30 shots: 0.886 save percentage (27 games)

More than 30 shots: 0.925 save percentage (31 games)

Not only was he no better with fewer shots, he was significantly worse.

This fits with what is widely viewed as his major weakness -- maintaining focus. If he's not busy, he loses focus and his numbers take a big hit.

This suggests that, in fact, he will perform worse with a coach like Babcock.

And how about when he was in LA.

 

[Gramsci]

And how about when he was in LA.

I haven't looked -- largely because he was a backup.

If you compare him against other starters by the same criteria, he doesn't stack up too well. Here's the 2014-15 numbers for 30 or fewer shots playing at least 2 periods per game for some comparison:

Price: .923
Lunqvist: .910
Rask: .910
Bernier: .898

So, he definitely doesn't stack up well against the elite.

 

[Gramsci]

Interesting. Would it be too much trouble to post that data in table form listing several top to middle of the pack goalies? Would be interesting to compare.

I'm not sure I can (I use Linux) and it's quite a bit of work, as I take game log data and enter it into a spreadsheet that requires a significant amount of manual cleaning (e.g., removing headers, sub-40 minute games).

 

[napoleon in rags]

I'm not sure I can (I use Linux) and it's quite a bit of work, as I take game log data and enter it into a spreadsheet that requires a significant amount of manual cleaning (e.g., removing headers, sub-40 minute games).

np, what you posted above answers my question. Thanks

 

[Gabriel426]

Put it this way, if the Babcock can get the present Leafs team into the playoffs due to rising their plays. I am sure a lot of players(Stamkos and others) will take notice and wonder what if I play for Babs, if Babs can make KAdri into Sid, I(Stamkos) playing under Babs might turn into Gretzky. Thus, it will attract elite level talents to come to TO at a discount to play under Babs.

Either way, it is still good for the Leafs.

 

[ULF_55]

Interestingly, the results are even more pronounced for the 2013-14 season, which was a much better season for Bernier overall than 2014-15.

Removing any games for which Bernier played fewer than 2 periods:

Fewer than 30 shots: 0.893 save percentage (15 games)

More than 30 shots: 0.933 save percentage (35 games)

The results for last season were not an anomaly. He's just not very good when he's not being peppered with shots.

Teams will change their style of play in a game once they get a lead, and often not press to the same extent.

If you give an early goal or two it can change how hard the other team attacks.

 

[Gabriel426]

Bernier is no Price, but when u look at the last few Cups team, their Goalie ain't the most dominant in the regular season, rather they just did their job and made timely saves. I would not pick Crawford for Team Canada, and yet he is the starting Goalie in Two Cups.

 

[PJJ]

Interestingly, the results are even more pronounced for the 2013-14 season, which was a much better season for Bernier overall than 2014-15.

Removing any games for which Bernier played fewer than 2 periods:

Fewer than 30 shots: 0.893 save percentage (15 games)

More than 30 shots: 0.933 save percentage (35 games)

The results for last season were not an anomaly. He's just not very good when he's not being peppered with shots.

this just proves how much the D pretty much makes or breaks the goalie. Look at Dubnyk and how he moved from a ****** defence to a pretty good one in Minnesota. When Bernier is facing fewer than 30 shots, chances are the Leafs are playing a style of defence where theyre not forming a wall around the net which makes for easier saves. Fewer than 30 shots chances are hes facing more breakaways etc.

Which is why I believe goalies are overrated. As long as you have a good defence, your team will be stopping the pucks from going in the net.