The Big-6 New York/New Jersey summer additions have combined for a negative goals above replacement

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Where does one find Jack Hughes face off numbers from juniors? I searched around and couldn't find anything.

They compile them for the IIHF tournaments. Between WJC18 and WJC20, he had over 15 games of face off stats, so not that small of a sample and he was much worse than a number of his teammates. The stats weren’t good. Well under 50% in junior, although I don’t remember the exact number. They’ve been posted before on this website. I don’t have time to look for that, but you could look through those games, and see for yourself.

 

[koyvoo]

How is GAR calculated

This is a good article (linked below) describing the process. Be careful before falling down that rabbit hole. It’s a great tool to aid in player valuations, but like all stats, they can also misleading and sometimes even useless. Good work is being done, but always try to have the context of visuals whenever possible instead of relying on just the stats alone.

goals ABOVE REPLACEMENT

 

[Regal]

I think these stats can provide value but I still don't put a ton of stock into something rating Ryan Ellis as 2nd in the league

 

[Blackjack]

They compile them for the IIHF tournaments. Between WJC18 and WJC20, he had over 15 games of face off stats, so not that small of a sample and he was much worse than a number of his teammates. The stats weren’t good. Well under 50% in junior, although I don’t remember the exact number. They’ve been posted before on this website. I don’t have time to look for that, but you could look through those games, and see for yourself.

So what you're saying is no one compiles face off stats for USHL or USNTDP, and you're basing this off of old forum posts and 15 games worth of WJC tournaments?

lol.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Trouba is bad

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

So what you're saying is no one compiles face off stats for USHL or USNTDP, and you're basing this off of old forum posts and 15 games worth of WJC tournaments?

lol.

No, he was demonstrably bad on face-offs compared to junior players. I don't know why this is hard to accept. This is proven over a big enough sample.

If you prefer to cheerlead about that for your team, as well, despite a large enough sample of statistical evidence, that's your issue.

 

[Its a Trap]

No, he was demonstrably bad on face-offs compared to junior players. I don't know why this is hard to accept. This is proven over a big enough sample.

If you prefer to cheerlead about that for your team, as well, despite a large enough sample of statistical evidence, that's your issue.

If you’re citing his NHL numbers, sure. But you can’t possibly be saying that 15 games of stats over a multiyear period is a large sample size. Cause that’s just silly.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

If you’re citing his NHL numbers, sure. But you can’t possibly be saying that 15 games of stats over a multiyear period is a large sample size. Cause that’s just silly.

I said large enough. The players that the coach had take the important situation face-offs all seemed to have the high FO% numbers, and the players who wouldn't take those face-offs and might not even be the first option to take the FO's for their team when on the ice had the lower numbers. Is that a coincidence?

It's not something that matters that much, but why try to deny Hughes face-off struggles? Even he was saying that he really needed to work on face-offs coming into this season. Usually young players don't cite their biggest strengths as the areas they need to work on.

 

[RosstheBoss]

I think most have been saying Subban is over rated for a while, and now that he hasn't been shielded by Ekhom, Jossi and Ellis, he can't hide anymore. Anyone here still think he was worthy on being in the Top 3 vote getters for the Norris 2 years ago?

 

[The Macho King]

Evolving Wild - those are the guys that think Bonino should be the MVP or some crap right?

Yeah, hard pass.

 

[Kranix]

Which players were conveniently left out

 

[Cheddabombs]

Trouba is bad

So is Subban

 

[aufheben]

Evolving Wild - those are the guys that think Bonino should be the MVP or some crap right?

Yeah, hard pass.

That list is mostly filled with star players, having a few surprises should be expected. The whole point of statistics is to judge players by results and not by reputations or conventional wisdom.

 

[The Macho King]

That list is mostly filled with star players, having a few surprises should be expected. The whole point of statistics is to judge players by results and not by reputations or conventional wisdom.

Yeah their metrics suck though. Publicly available advanced stats dont measure what they're advertised to measure - they're all just derivatives of shot data + location which is incredibly incomplete.

I'm sure some of the in house/contractor stuff is better, but what is out there is taken as gospel by far too many people.

 

[aufheben]

Yeah their metrics suck though. Publicly available advanced stats dont measure what they're advertised to measure - they're all just derivatives of shot data + location which is incredibly incomplete.

I'm sure some of the in house/contractor stuff is better, but what is out there is taken as gospel by far too many people.

People treat conventional stats like gospel too. These just account for much more. I don't think it's crazy that Ryan Ellis could be having as good a season as a Pietrangelo. He's a top-pairing defenseman with 28 PTS in 38 GP this season, and 22 of them are at Even Strength. 47 PTS at Even Strength over a full season and the ice is completely tilted when he's on.

Most of the standouts on that list play in small hockey markets.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

How is GAR calculated

This is a good article (linked below) describing the process. Be careful before falling down that rabbit hole. It’s a great tool to aid in player valuations, but like all stats, they can also misleading and sometimes even useless. Good work is being done, but always try to have the context of visuals whenever possible instead of relying on just the stats alone.

goals ABOVE REPLACEMENT

That's actually not the same model.

This is the GAR model that I used:

Wins Above Replacement: The Process (Part 2)

For a TL;DR, it uses individual stats for the penalty portion of the GAR, but it uses on-ice results for everything else. So, a player's offensive impact is not calculated based on point totals, but rather on their on-ice results after adjusting for the context that impacted their on-ice results such as teammates, opponents, score, zone, etc.

 

[Saitama]

Meh, im just happy Blackwood is a legitimate starting goalie lol. With the timeline of NJ's window shifting with the departures of Hall, Coleman, and maybe Palmieri. They have three really good core pieces. NYR remind me of NJ's awkward timeline with Panarin and Zibanejad carrying, while the youth is not yet established

I've been a fan of Blackwood for a while and even though he's on the Devils, I still want him to do well!

 

[KillerMillerTime]

The fact this list has Brad Marchand as a center which he
has never played at the NHL level makes it suspect at best.