Post-Game Talk: The Beheading of the Goathead

[slip]

Its literally the job of your core to be the driving force of the team.

This team struggled out of the gate due to the play of its top guys. We didn't break up the top line after 4gms into the season because our depth was struggling. We broke them up because they were playing like ass.

To help get those guys going we had to break up an actual depth line that was very effective (Greenway/Mitts/Benson). We scattered them among the top guys.

We should have been able to rely on Skinner/Tage/Tuch to be a driving force. They've been one of the best lines in the NHL over the previous 1 1/3 seasons. Instead, they were a problem. In no universe is some random depth forward going to overcome that.

The vitriol exhibited by our fans toward marginal 4th liners after losses has been a mainstay on these boards for years. As if the outcome of most games hinges on the performance of guys logging 10 minutes a night.

 

[toddkaz]

The vitriol exhibited by our fans toward marginal 4th liners after losses has been a mainstay on these boards for years. As if the outcome of most games hinges on the performance of guys logging 10 minutes a night.

I find your post interest because of the tone when a 4th liner is team captain.

If 4th liners are meaningless then why is ours a captain?

 

[slip]

I find your post interest because of the tone when a 4th liner is team captain.

If 4th liners are meaningless then why is ours a captain?

Okposo/Girgensons might have been the only forwards who actually did their jobs last night. They weren't scored on, had a few good cycles, and logged some decent PK time.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

The vitriol exhibited by our fans toward marginal 4th liners after losses has been a mainstay on these boards for years. As if the outcome of most games hinges on the performance of guys logging 10 minutes a night.

Determining who to blame loses on isn’t a science, and your guesses are no better than others. It could very well be both the top 6 and bottom 6, along with defense, coaching, and management.

All of them share blame, and everyone will assign blame differently. Only some people are self righteous enough to act like their assessment is the only correct ones like you and joshjull.

 

[Mattilaus]

We lost because Okposo, UPL, Power, Tuch the team stank. You don't get a 5-1 loss without systemic stank all around.

 

[slip]

Determining who to blame loses on isn’t a science, and your guesses are no better than others. It could very well be both the top 6 and bottom 6, along with defense, coaching, and management.

All of them share blame, and everyone will assign blame differently. Only some people are self righteous enough to act like their assessment is the only correct ones like you and joshjull.

I don't want to absolve anyone for last night's game. But I do want to hold our top paid players more accountable for their lack of production and repeated defensive lapses. We need much more from guys like Tuch, Skinner, Power, and Dahlin than what we got last night, And other than Okposos/Girgensons I thought the remaining bottom 6 was trash. On defense, Old Man Johnson was the only one who did his job properly. Joki was decent. The rest of the blueline straight up sucked ass. Plenty of blame to pass around.

 

[SundherDome]

All this, except that when it’s pretty much every player.. and the pp.. and the captain.. at some point you gotta look upwards. Some (@Ace) blame Adams, I personally see a lot of young talent just completely off-script, confused, and stalled in their development because Granato is a big bag of rah-rah with nothin else. Like- these past 5 games we’ve almost blown a massive lead, we’ve gotten a too many men penalty down by a goal with a minute left, we’ve gotten outplayed by the Flyers twice- these are team wide mistakes pointing towards greater disfunction at the coaching level.

A poster above mentioned Granato implementing a defensive structure. You can see that the forwards are not 100% bought in and the chaos it creates in the dzone. You have dmen retrieving the puck, looking up and seeing the forward blowing the zone which then requires them to either absorb the forechecker, ring it around the boards or put the puck in danger.

My message to the team would be, if I see any of the above shit tonight or over the next few games, you are sitting. I don't care how much you make or your status in the league. I'm also moving Tage to the bumper on the pp because he is a big body and he has a quick release. Greenway is the bumper on pp2 and I want him getting nice and close and hacking at pucks.

 

[Buff15Sabres]

Just as an aside.

I see our expected goals for at 2.76 and the Flyers at 2.57 for that game.

It's crazy how bad that stat is at showing what actually happens in a game. The Sabres had some decent chances and missed the net. The Flyers had technically low % shots, but when they come off a brain dead turnover they are actually pretty dangerous in reality.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Just as an aside.

I see our expected goals for at 2.76 and the Flyers at 2.57 for that game.

It's crazy how bad that stat is at showing what actually happens in a game. The Sabres had some decent chances and missed the net. The Flyers had technically low % shots, but when they come off a brain dead turnover they are actually pretty dangerous in reality.

I think xG is a very flawed stat personally because it's insanely subjective. If there was a hard qualification for what counts as a "expected goal" it would be easier for me to swallow.

I also don't discount analytics at all for the record, I just think xG has A LOT of flaws and people use it as the end all be all.

 

[BFLO]

Its literally the job of your core to be the driving force of the team.

This team struggled out of the gate due to the play of its top guys. We didn't break up the top line after 4gms into the season because our depth was struggling. We broke them up because they were playing like ass.

To help get those guys going we had to break up an actual depth line that was very effective (Greenway/Mitts/Benson). We scattered them among the top guys.

We should have been able to rely on Skinner/Tage/Tuch to be a driving force. They've been one of the best lines in the NHL over the previous 1 1/3 seasons. Instead, they were a problem. In no universe is some random depth forward going to overcome that.

Are you saying that no amount of depth upgrades could overcome a core as bad as ours?

The vitriol exhibited by our fans toward marginal 4th liners after losses has been a mainstay on these boards for years. As if the outcome of most games hinges on the performance of guys logging 10 minutes a night.

My vitriol is directed at management.

 

[BFLO]

Just as an aside.

I see our expected goals for at 2.76 and the Flyers at 2.57 for that game.

It's crazy how bad that stat is at showing what actually happens in a game. The Sabres had some decent chances and missed the net. The Flyers had technically low % shots, but when they come off a brain dead turnover they are actually pretty dangerous in reality.

I think xG is a very flawed stat personally because it's insanely subjective. If there was a hard qualification for what counts as a "expected goal" it would be easier for me to swallow.

I also don't discount analytics at all for the record, I just think xG has A LOT of flaws and people use it as the end all be all.

I think xG works as a stat once you understand that it can't capture shooting talent or goal tending variability and that it's a really just a measure of the cumulative shot quality for and against.
Like xG can't capture that it's Tage Thompson shooting the puck in the slot, so that shot should be worth more than when Krebs shoots from the same spot. And sometimes goalies make saves on shots that they really shouldn't have been able to stop and sometimes they let in softies. And sometimes the puck bounces, or is on edge a little when a guy shoots it from 2 feet out towards a wide open cage so it goes wide.

It's much closer to a stat like Corsi or Shots on net, than it is to actually predicting the outcome or score of games.

Look at Money Puck's definition:
The sum of the probabilities of unblocked shot attempts being goals. For example a rebound shot in the slot may be worth 0.5 expected goals, while a shot from the blueline while short handed may be worth 0.01 expected goals.


Like for example last night. The Sabres had xGF of 2.76 vs the flyers 2.57. That tells me that both teams were fairly even in the quality and number of unblocked shot attempts. But the Sabres lost 5-1. Which to me says that UPL let in some absolute stinkers, which I also observed with my eyes. And the Sabres put a lot of their highest xG shots wide of the net last night.

They should really just rename it to "unblocked shot quality".

 

[enthusiast]

I mentioned this in the GDT but at a certain point consistent failure to convert XG to G is a finishing issue rather than just part of the metric

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I mentioned this in the GDT but at a certain point consistent failure to convert XG to G is a finishing issue rather than just part of the metric

I think the idea is that eventually the numbers match up, over the long run? They never actually do, but it shoujd always be bending toward that direction.

 

[enthusiast]

I think the idea is that eventually the numbers match up, over the long run? They never actually do, but it shoujd always be bending toward that direction.

They should, in a perfect world. But, say, if you’ve got the finishing skill of Adam mair in every player, it doesn’t matter where they take shots from

 

[DJN21]

Okposo, Vic, and Jost shouldve been sent walking. Girgs coming back I get. Not replacing quinn in any capacity is odd. But needless to say yes the bottom 6 shouldve been addressed better. Nosek was out there forever etc. I honestly think the dcore is fine, would I have liked Pesce? Sure. But outside of that we did fine enough. The bottom 6 on this team has been hot garbage for years (sometimes they were in our top 6 lol)

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Okposo, Vic, and Jost shouldve been sent walking. Girgs coming back I get. Not replacing quinn in any capacity is odd. But needless to say yes the bottom 6 shouldve been addressed better. Nosek was out there forever etc. I honestly think the dcore is fine, would I have liked Pesce? Sure. But outside of that we did fine enough. The bottom 6 on this team has been hot garbage for years (sometimes they were in our top 6 lol)

I’m stupidly still holding out hope for Pesce next offseason

 

[toddkaz]

Okposo/Girgensons might have been the only forwards who actually did their jobs last night. They weren't scored on, had a few good cycles, and logged some decent PK time.

So they are not meaningless.

 

[HaNotsri]

Why does Adams have a kitten on the team? Get him tf out if he’s not potty trained.

Because he scores!