Pre-Game Talk: The All Purpose Off Day Thread - Panic Time!

[Sidney the Kidney]

Grant sucks. The people talking about him earlier this year was always humorous to me.

Also, means that Sprong will likely be playing 82 game if healthy @Warm Cookies.

I think people looked at what Grant did last season, and not what he's done literally his entire career.

If one believed we signed the 2017-18 version of Grant, then I can see the surprise at him being waived. But if one was skeptical last year wasn't just an anomaly, it's not really a surprise.

 

[Gurglesons]

Will Ducks claim Grant? did well for them.

They’ve got the new Grant.

Carter Rowney.

 

[cygnus47]

Maybe Murray is already feeling better. Concussions are so weird.

I was surprised he finished the Montreal game after getting kneed in the head on the first goal by Gallagher.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

I'd have expected them to waive Ruh before Grant, but who knows what they have cooking on D. So we're going to run with 12 forwards? Kind of unfortunate, I imagine he gets claimed.

 

[Peat]

Maybe Murray is already feeling better. Concussions are so weird.

Maybe. I'm skeptical, but I doubt they'd be cowboys about it, so maybe it is.

I think people looked at what Grant did last season, and not what he's done literally his entire career.

If one believed we signed the 2017-18 version of Grant, then I can see the surprise at him being waived. But if one was skeptical last year wasn't just an anomaly, it's not really a surprise.

Its less about what he's done and more the fact they clearly like him and there's no obvious reason for them to have stopped liking him. Sure, he's the calibre of player that gets waived all the time, but you can usually see it coming from a distance due to the numbers/usage.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I'd have expected them to waive Ruh before Grant, but who knows what they have cooking on D. So we're going to run with 12 forwards? Kind of unfortunate, I imagine he gets claimed.

Our center depth is vastly superior to our defense depth, so I'm not surprised they'd waive Grant over someone like Ruhwedel.

If someone picks up Grant, we've still got 5 NHL caliber centers on the roster, with Blueger ready to be called up on the farm. If someone picks up Ruhwedel, we're down to 7 NHL caliber defenders in the entire system.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'd have expected them to waive Ruh before Grant, but who knows what they have cooking on D. So we're going to run with 12 forwards? Kind of unfortunate, I imagine he gets claimed.

I feel like Ruhwedel is more likely to be claimed than Grant and he has been here longer. Those two alone mostly explain it imo

 

[SHOOTANDSCORE]

Yeah it’s weird. If he’s on IR he has to be out for a minimum 7 days which with his injury he should be.

Plus, they can put him on the IR retroactively.

Them doing this seemingly unnecessarily tells me that they have confidence in Blueger.

 

[Andy99]

Plus, they can put him on the IR retroactively.

Them doing this seemingly unnecessarily tells me that they have confidence in Blueger.

Or they expect Murray to be playing much sooner than 7 days....

 

[ncm7772]

I love the title. Indeed time to panic!

 

[SHOOTANDSCORE]

Or they expect Murray to be playing much sooner than 7 days....

It's only 5 days as of today.

It would be stupid to rush a guy with his concussion history back just to play the Habs on Sat.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The worst part of advanced stats becoming popular is that they are absolutely abused by people who don't know how to use them. I'm seeing people legitimately argue that Maatta has been one of the Penguins best defensemen this year because of corsi.

 

[Don'tcry4mejanhrdina]

Yeah Maatta has been terrible. I like the guy, I want him to do well. He had a very good rookie season and was great in the Olympics, he looked like he had a very promising career ahead of him. He still might. But he doesn't fit this team. He's too slow. His acceleration is beyond terrible. The Pens system needs defensemen that can join the attack then have the speed to recover if/when the puck is turned the other way. He simply doesn't have that. He's getting walked by guys who are slow themselves, it's sad to see at this point. Send him out West. McDavid would love playing against him more often.

 

[Peat]

The worst part of advanced stats becoming popular is that they are absolutely abused by people who don't know how to use them. I'm seeing people legitimately argue that Maatta has been one of the Penguins best defensemen this year because of corsi.

Doesn't even make all that much sense when the 1st pairing are doing so much better on the advanced stats front.

 

[MrBurghundy]

I feel like Ruhwedel is more likely to be claimed than Grant and he has been here longer. Those two alone mostly explain it imo

Depth is most likely the reason if they are afraid of Ruh being claimed. We have plenty of forward depth. Not so much on the back end.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The worst part of advanced stats becoming popular is that they are absolutely abused by people who don't know how to use them. I'm seeing people legitimately argue that Maatta has been one of the Penguins best defensemen this year because of corsi.

That, and you can't even have a discussion anymore about actual hockey.

"What makes so and so a good defenseman?"

"Well, if you look at his CF% and his Relative Corsi/Relative Fenwick, you'll see how good he is"

"Yes, but like, what does he actually DO on the ice that makes him good? Positioning? Good stick? Smarts? What?"

"Uhh ... well ... like I said, here's a pie chart with his various advanced stats metrics. As you can see, he's at the top of the league along with Cody Franson!"

 

[Empoleon8771]

That, and you can't even have a discussion anymore about actual hockey.

"What makes so and so a good defenseman?"

"Well, if you look at his CF% and his Relative Corsi/Relative Fenwick, you'll see how good he is"

"Yes, but like, what does he actually DO on the ice that makes him good? Positioning? Good stick? Smarts? What?"

"Uhh ... well ... like I said, here's a pie chart with his various advanced stats metrics. As you can see, he's at the top of the league along with Cody Franson!"

Yeah people seem to think that hockey advanced stats are as good as baseball advanced stats, but they're not even remotely close and you can't quantify hockey like you can with baseball. Hockey advanced stats aren't well enough developed to use solely them as an argument for player ability, yet you still see people say a defenseman is better than another one because one guy had a -0.8% CF%Rel and the other guy had a -2.0% CF%Rel. I blame people like Ryan Wilson for this, it's guys like him that cause people to horribly overuse and misuse stats that should be a supporting piece to an argument.

I've actually grown to dislike a lot of the major advanced stats because of how people misuse/manipulate them. CF%Rel has turned into the "how good is a player?" stat, but it really just shows puck moving talent more than anything and it completely lacks any context outside of shot differentials. Points/60 is a completely arbitrary stat that has literally no justification for why it exists. One person on this site has caused me to hate points/60 entirely, it took one guy insisting Matthews was better than McDavid for me to just despise the stat.

 

[Peat]

One person on this site has caused me to hate points/60 entirely, it took one guy insisting Matthews was better than McDavid for me to just despise the stat.

16-17 Conor Sheary uber alles!

I love stats more than most but there's some pretty mental arguments being made on their back. I do think the shot suppression stats Maatta/Johnson have posted deserves mention, they're clearly not all bad, but Maatta one of our best dmen so far? Good lord.

Although I have seen a lot of arguments trying to pin Maatta's struggles on Johnson and say he's been worse, which is maybe even worse as an argument goes.


edit: Maatta-Johnson's possession stats are even more impressive given how many d-zone starts they've taken and how much time they've spent with line 2. Its just a shame about the list of notable individual f' ups.

 

[Empoleon8771]

edit: Maatta-Johnson's possession stats are even more impressive given how many d-zone starts they've taken and how much time they've spent with line 2. Its just a shame about the list of notable individual f' ups.

That's the thing that made them bad and the thing that advanced stats don't quantify. These screw ups that result in goals only count as 1 shot attempt against, these stats don't quantify being left in the dust by Paul Byron or turning the puck over in the neutral zone or failing to intercept a 2 on 1 pass through your feet. Yet people still cling to CF% and ignore all of that other stuff, because all that matters is shot differential all of a sudden.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Another thing I forgot to say: I think the Penguins waiving Grant today makes it really clear that Riikola isn't going anywhere anytime soon. If they'd pick risking losing a NHL player over sending a waiver exempt player to the AHL, it seems really clear for how they view that waiver exempt player. He's a NHLer on the Penguins now, unless he collapses from where he was at in the preseason.

 

[Pancakes]

That's the thing that made them bad and the thing that advanced stats don't quantify. These screw ups that result in goals only count as 1 shot attempt against, these stats don't quantify being left in the dust by Paul Byron or turning the puck over in the neutral zone or failing to intercept a 2 on 1 pass through your feet. Yet people still cling to CF% and ignore all of that other stuff, because all that matters is shot differential all of a sudden.

Some of that is outside the player's control though. For instance Maatta can't control if Murray saves a breakaway or not. Crosby can't control if Guentzel converts a great pass. Which is why things like PDO exist to try to account for stuff like that.

Stats aren't perfect and shouldn't be the only criteria used to evaluate players, but they're an excellent supplement.

 

[ColePens]

I think it's important to look at the problems on the team and figure out if they are fixable.

1) Do we have the talent to play better team defense? 100000000% yes. It's not even a question. They just have to do it as a group.

2) If Murray stays healthy, can he take this team to a Cup? Yes. 10000000% yes.

3) Can DeSmith/Jarry hold down the fort? Yes. 100% yes.


So naaaw I won't be panicking for a long long time.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Some of that is outside the player's control though. For instance Maatta can't control if Murray saves a breakaway or not. Crosby can't control if Guentzel converts a great pass. Which is why things like PDO exist to try to account for stuff like that.

Stats aren't perfect and shouldn't be the only criteria used to evaluate players, but they're an excellent supplement.

This is true, but at the same point, Maatta can control not getting burned on the play. Maatta can control breaking up a 2 on 1 pass that goes through his feet. Maatta can control not turning the puck over by shooting it into a ref. PDO compensates for that because sometimes you just don't get bailed out by your teammates, but that's over a full season. We're 2 games in and Maatta has been heavily responsible for more goals against than good plays so far this year.

 

[Pancakes]

This is true, but at the same point, Maatta can control not getting burned on the play. Maatta can control breaking up a 2 on 1 pass that goes through his feet. Maatta can control not turning the puck over by shooting it into a ref. PDO compensates for that because sometimes you just don't get bailed out by your teammates, but that's over a full season. We're 2 games in and Maatta has been heavily responsible for more goals against than good plays so far this year.

I wouldn't necessarily disagree. I also think Maatta is ten times the player Oleksiak is and it would be foolish to keep him out of the lineup for too long.

I think it's important to look at the problems on the team and figure out if they are fixable.

1) Do we have the talent to play better team defense? 100000000% yes. It's not even a question. They just have to do it as a group.

2) If Murray stays healthy, can he take this team to a Cup? Yes. 10000000% yes.

3) Can DeSmith/Jarry hold down the fort? Yes. 100% yes.


So naaaw I won't be panicking for a long long time.

In a weird way I'm not super concerned about Jarry/Desmith. They can't play worse than Murray was and our team can't play any worse defensively.

And because Murray is out maybe the team will be more committed defensively. If they aren't, they'll be relying on very unproven goaltending to bail them out.

 

[Coach Travis]

I honestly think we're going to see a Penguins team come out tomorrow against Vegas playing very defensively responsible. In the same vein were we used to see everybody step their games up when Sid went down to injury, losing Murray, I think, is going to get our defensive house in order. Blessing in disguise (assuming Matt makes a full recovery).