The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[silverfish]

What now?

Just everything. The spec thread is a cess pool.

The Kings need to trade Kopitar. Really? That's what LA needs to do? Dude has a $10m AAV for the next six years. Who is trading for that contract? Are they going to get anywhere near equal value for him without retaining? Homie just put up a Hart season and that's who they need to trade?

Nobody thinks about the shit they post anymore.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Just everything. The spec thread is a cess pool.

The Kings need to trade Kopitar. Really? That's what LA needs to do? Dude has a $10m AAV for the next six years. Who is trading for that contract? Are they going to get anywhere near equal value for him without retaining? Homie just put up a Hart season and that's who they need to trade?

Nobody thinks about the **** they post anymore.

What they should do is do exactly what Boston did: identify a veteran core, and get rid of the excess. Keep Kopitar, Toffoli, Doughty and build out from there.

If they’re shrewd, they can get someone to bite on the Carter deal and try to get back a younger player that can fill his shoes in aggegate before he declines. No one ever considers the salary cap, and the spec thread is always bad.

 

[SA16]

The full article - Mookie Betts or Mike Trout: Who gets the nod? - The Boston Globe - is full of ridiculously wrong takes from multiple scouts.

Not only wrong takes and opinions you also have Fake Stats

“I’d go with Trout,” said a National League evaluator. “Close though. Betts is a year younger and has a better OPS over the last two years.”

Since 2016:
Betts - 0.869
Trout - 1.022

So not only is he blatantly wrong it's not even remotely CLOSE. The difference between Trout and Betts (in OPS) is the same as the difference between Betts and scrubs who aren't even starting players.

Just goes to show how much a joke "scouting" is with regards to players actually in the league.

What they should do is do exactly what Boston did: identify a veteran core, and get rid of the excess. Keep Kopitar, Toffoli, Doughty and build out from there.

If they’re shrewd, they can get someone to bite on the Carter deal and try to get back a younger player that can fill his shoes in aggegate before he declines. No one ever considers the salary cap, and the spec thread is always bad.

The other thing the Kings should do is play their second best goal scorer more than 16 minutes a game and not play him often on the third line but what do I know.

 

[Mac n Gs]

The other thing the Kings should do is play their second best goal scorer more than 16 minutes a game and not play him often on the third line but what do I know.

Yeah, the juggling around of Toffoli was perplexing this series, especially with how Carter played without him. Don’t think it’ll be an issue going forward, unless they think Dustin Brown somehow found a fountain of youth rather than getting ridiculously lucky all season.

 

[silverfish]

shrug

Only thing I've compared to Corsica is xG. CBJ is close, but WSH misses by 0.7

Um. Also SOG on NHL.com are 45-35....

 

[Mac n Gs]

shrug

Only thing I've compared to Corsica is xG. CBJ is close, but WSH misses by 0.7

I want to believe that Vally is using tracked data like pre-shot movement to factor into his model. Then again, idk if his metrics are peer reviewed.

That link explaining Manny’s xGF model made me appreciate it a bit more. I didn’t know how layered it was

 

[Irishguy42]

shrug

Only thing I've compared to Corsica is xG. CBJ is close, but WSH misses by 0.7

Um. Also SOG on NHL.com are 45-35....

I wonder if scorers added a few more SOG at the end when submitting/reviewing. I feel like that happens more often than not.

Alternatively: CSA has it's own live trackers and those are their SOG totals.

 

[silverfish]

I wonder if scorers added a few more SOG at the end when submitting/reviewing. I feel like that happens more often than not.

Alternatively: CSA has it's own live trackers and those are their SOG totals.

A discrepancy of six shots on goal for CBJ seems high.

Can a SOG be subjective?

Something is weird, here.

I'd really, really want to see the six events that the NHL considers a SOG but CSA does not.

 

[SA16]

A discrepancy of six shots on goal for CBJ seems high.

Can a SOG be subjective?

Something is weird, here.

I'd really, really want to see the six events that the NHL considers a SOG but CSA does not.

If clearsight is lower I would imagine they don't give SOG on shots that the goalie "saves" that are going wide that almost all get counted in the NHL.

 

[silverfish]

If clearsight is lower I would imagine they don't give SOG on shots that the goalie "saves" that are going wide that almost all get counted in the NHL.

Interesting hypothesis. A shame we'll never know.

 

[SA16]

Interesting hypothesis. A shame we'll never know.

I take it they don't provide any information about the shots other than "There were x shots taken?"

I wonder if scorers added a few more SOG at the end when submitting/reviewing. I feel like that happens more often than not.

Alternatively: CSA has it's own live trackers and those are their SOG totals.

SOG almost never get adjusted after the game. Occasionally by like 1. Goals/Assists change somewhat commonly.

 

[silverfish]

I take it they don't provide any information about the shots other than "There were x shots taken?"

I tweeted at them asking about the six events they aren't counting as SOG for CBJ that the NHL is, but all this shit is so black-box, I won't get an answer.

 

[DanielBrassard]

So does Clear Sight not look at shots that missed the net? Just shots on goal?

 

[silverfish]

So does Clear Sight not look at shots that missed the net? Just shots on goal?

The whole point was summed up nicely here:



I checked the CSA site, nothing.

 

[silverfish]

The most epic of epic shrugs. 14.5%? Seriously?

 

[Machinehead]

The full article - Mookie Betts or Mike Trout: Who gets the nod? - The Boston Globe - is full of ridiculously wrong takes from multiple scouts.

Who's going to let the Boston Globe know that Betts isn't even the best player at his own position in his own division?

 

[Mac n Gs]

The most epic of epic shrugs. 14.5%? Seriously?

Well...then tell us how you do it?

 

[SnowblindNYR]

shrug

Only thing I've compared to Corsica is xG. CBJ is close, but WSH misses by 0.7

Um. Also SOG on NHL.com are 45-35....

I couldn't figure out why low, high, and medium shot % didn't add up to 100% and then realized they added up to the absolute shot total. So why call it a percentage? What am I missing?

Edit: I guess it's the legend of the pie chart.

 

[silverfish]

I couldn't figure out why low, high, and medium shot % didn't add up to 100% and then realized they added up to the absolute shot total. So why call it a percentage? What am I missing?

Edit: I guess it's the legend of the pie chart.

Because it's a terrible way to disseminate information. If I gave that to one of my supervisors, I'd be fired.

Well...then tell us how you do it?

I asked for more clarification, and all they did is retweet and favorite their initial reply to me. Great.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Yeah, the juggling around of Toffoli was perplexing this series, especially with how Carter played without him. Don’t think it’ll be an issue going forward, unless they think Dustin Brown somehow found a fountain of youth rather than getting ridiculously lucky all season.

Imagine having the opportunity to draft Toffoli...only to take Christian Thomas.

 

[silverfish]

@Harbour Dog you have to remind me otherwise I'm going to forget.

https ://imgur.com/a/3Cc1L7h

The preview wouldn't work, so just unbreak the link

 

[mike14]

Just everything. The spec thread is a cess pool.

The Kings need to trade Kopitar. Really? That's what LA needs to do? Dude has a $10m AAV for the next six years. Who is trading for that contract? Are they going to get anywhere near equal value for him without retaining? Homie just put up a Hart season and that's who they need to trade?

Nobody thinks about the **** they post anymore.

Man, you really oversold this! I was expecting to see a bunch of crazy shit about Kopitar that would brighten my morning, but it was literally just RB saying that he should be traded and someone else pointing out how dumb that would be...

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Man, you really oversold this! I was expecting to see a bunch of crazy **** about Kopitar that would brighten my morning, but it was literally just RB saying that he should be traded and someone else pointing out how dumb that would be...

The problem is some people think RB is the gospel

He spreads his narratives like wild fire fam

 

[silverfish]

JT Miller doubles his career playoff goal total.

Cue the Namestnikov hot takes.

 

[Machinehead]

JT Miller doubles his career playoff goal total.

Cue the Namestnikov hot takes.

I'm about to drop hot take after hot take in the main boards Selke thread.