The 31st pick - value and history

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by oilsands, May 24, 2011.

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  1. oilsands

    oilsands dirty oil, comin 4 u

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    I've seen articles that state that the 31st overall pick is highly coveted. After the first round is done, the draft world is a bit shaken up by surprise picks, rankings, and players falling/being taken early. The 31st overall gives a GM and his team an entire night to re-evaluate the situation, see who is left, and check in with other scouts.

    The GM's picking late in the first round can be scrambling to make their pick, and may not get their guy - whereas #31 can be planned out and methodical. However, history shows us that not much has come from the 31st pick overall.

    What are your thoughts?
     
  2. Beerfish

    Beerfish Registered User

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    I agree, this is certainly the case in the NFL draft as well. There will often be a 'I can't believe this guy is still there, we had him rated 12th overall' type moment for a lot of teams, especially in this draft. It all comes down to the team with the pick (Oilers). If they have that same quote then they will simply make the pick, if not it will be up for grabs.

    If the Oilers have any designs on moving up in the draft then this pick will most likely be in play.
     
  3. R S

    R S @avs_tweets

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    2nd round picks are all very valuable, as much as people might laugh at that. People joke about the Leafs and how they ended up getting late 1st rounders and that those are basically throw away picks. They aren't.

    Even in the draft guide edition of the hockey news they profile the 2nd round and touch on the trending notion that 2nd round picks could be the hottest commodity right now among GM's.
     
  4. Brodeur

    Brodeur Registered User

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    The first round being separated from the rest of the Draft only started happening in 2007. So there's not a ton of history there, at least in the context of having an extra night to ponder the decision.

    You get a slight advantage having #31 if your intention is to trade it. But the team picking #28 also has all day to work out potential trade scenarios as well. After attending the Draft live last year, there is a ton of lag between picks. And it's not like the team picking #28 only starts fielding trade offers when they're on the clock.

    But realistically, teams spend months putting together their lists and having to wait a night shouldn't alter things. Also a first rounder comes with some insurance in that a team can get a compensatory 2nd rounder down the road if the draftee goes unsigned.
     
  5. Jabba11

    Jabba11 Hockey Lobby

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    Yes it's true that the 31st overall pick hasn't turn out to be any impact players recently. But, 31st overall in 2008: Jacob Markstrom.
     
  6. R S

    R S @avs_tweets

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    Who isn't an impact player......:laugh:

    Not hatin, just saying. I am one of his biggest fans, but he still hasn't proven ****.
     
  7. Freaky Styley

    Freaky Styley Registered User

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    That doesn't really surprise me.. yes, in most cases 1st round picks turn out to be the best players in the draft but the 2nd round is interesting because it's the best of who is left. It is almost like a fantasy draft.. the obvious guys are going to go in the first round but where you win a pool is in the later rounds. So in the draft being able to identify the sleepers or fallers and being to nab them in the 2nd can be a huge part of an organization's success. Our Avs have done pretty well in the 2nd round in recent history so I always like getting a few 2nd rounders
     
  8. R S

    R S @avs_tweets

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    Too bad we dont have one this year :rant:
     
  9. Stammer Time*

    Stammer Time* Sons of Pirates

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    Jay Feaster thinks it's worth Chris Gratton.
     
  10. Brodeur

    Brodeur Registered User

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    It was a bad trade by Feaster, but it was made a year before the 2008 Draft. He probably thought he was giving up a pick in the middle of the 2nd round, possibly late in the 2nd round if he thought Tampa would be contending for a division title. The year before Atlanta won the division and Washington hadn't yet broken out.
     
  11. Vinner

    Vinner Registered User

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    That's mostly Leaf hate. Trolling Leaf fans is enjoyed by all fan bases.
     
  12. Joey Moss

    Joey Moss 5-14-6-1

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    Since 2008 there's been a few decent players picked there though. I trust the Oilers scouting staff to pick the right player at 31. Last year it was between Marincin and Pitlick and both are doing just fine, expected to be decent NHL players.

    There's always going to be someone who falls out of the 1st round, and usually those players turn out pretty good. Amazingly they're hardly ever picked at the 31 spot..
     
  13. zjh

    zjh @ZenonHerasymiuk

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    Especially this year there is so many guys that are bubble players on the edge of the first round.
     
  14. Stephen

    Stephen Registered User

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    Felix Potvin, drafted 31st overall by the Leafs in 1990! :handclap:
     
  15. Mr Sakich

    Mr Sakich Registered User

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    it might be Burke hate. Too lazy to look it up but I think he has traded his 2nd round pick more often than he actually used it to pick someone.
     
  16. YEGJuniorFan

    YEGJuniorFan Registered User

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    there really hasnt been an impact player picked 31st overall in the last ten years (Markstrom could change that), but Derek Roy and Dave Bolland both went 32nd
     
  17. Brodeur

    Brodeur Registered User

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    Vancouver
    ------------
    1998 - Artem Chubarov (Burke had just been hired a week before, so it's tough to imagine he had a ton of input on the draft process)
    1999 - traded to Avs for coach Marc Crawford
    2000 - Had two picks, traded own pick for 2001 pick, traded another for Devils prospect Vadim Sharifijanov
    2001 - Had three picks, traded for Drake Berehowsky, traded with Adrian Aucoin for Dan Cloutier, traded for Alex Auld
    2002 - Had two picks, selected Kirill Kolstov and Denis Grot
    2003 - Marc-Andre Bernier
    2004 - Traded for Johan Hedberg

    Anaheim
    -------------
    2005 - Had two picks, drafted Brendan Mikkelson with one, traded the other for Todd Fedoruk
    2006 - Had two picks, drafted Bryce Swan with one, traded the other for Jeff Friesen
    2007 - Had three picks, drafted Eric Tangradi with one they got by trading down, traded for George Parros (with pick they got for Vitali Vishnevski), traded their own pick in a package for coach Randy Carlyle
    2008 - Used own pick in the Pronger trade, traded down twice for picks #35 and #39 and got Nic Deschamps and Eric O'Dell.
    2009 - Traded for Brian Sutherby in 2007

    Toronto
    ------------
    2009 - Acquired two picks via trade, drafted Kenny Ryan and Jesse Blacker
    2010 - Reacquired then used own 2nd in the Phil Kessel trade, acquired a pick for Jimmy Hayes and drafted Brad Ross

    Obviously not the greatest array of talent brought in, but the teams getting those 2nd rounders generally didn't draft guys who were much better.
     
  18. Drij

    Drij Registered User

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    wait what?
     
  19. LaLaLaprise

    LaLaLaprise lalalaprise -twitter

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    I dont really see it having an effect....NHL teams make 1 master draft list and they generally pick the next highest guy left on their list...having a whole night to think about it wont make much of a difference as teams have had hours of meetings in preparing their list.
     
  20. kaiser matias

    kaiser matias Registered User

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    Not technically a trade.

    Crawford was still under contract to the Avs, and the Canucks had to give them the pick in return for signing him.
     
  21. SK13

    SK13 T. Yoshi Muchakoopas

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    The "history" of any numbered pick is absolutely meaningless. There is no spectre hanging over the kid who gets drafted in that position, whether or not he's a player depends on him, his skillset and the teams ability to develop him.
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2011
  22. Pyrophorus

    Pyrophorus Registered User

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    ...and are the only #32's to play over 8 NHL games, so far, in the
    past 11 drafts.
     
  23. rt

    rt DingDongTippIsGone! Sponsor

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    Fully developed 2nd rounders of note from 1996-2001(no hype remaining based on "potential".

    1996
    colin white
    matheiu garon
    jan bulis
    steve begin
    matt cullen
    cory sarich
    dan lacouture

    1997
    ben clymer
    kristian huselius
    henrik tallinder

    1998
    jonathan cheechoo
    blair betts
    john erskine
    ossi vaananen
    mike fisher
    mike ribeiro
    steve moore

    1999
    alex auld
    mike commodore
    jordan leopold
    adam hall
    doug janik
    matt carkner

    2000
    brad winchester
    tomas kopecky
    kurtis foster
    ilya bryzgalov
    jarret stoll
    andrej lilja
    antoine vermette
    dan ellis
    paul martin

    2001
    derek roy
    tim jackman
    fedor tyutin
    mike cammalleri
    chris thorburn
    jason pominville
    jason mcclement
    peter budaj

    Sure, there are a handful of very good players in there. We are talking about a sample of something like, what, 165 picks, or so? Even if you pick out the best seventeen players in the group, there are some duds. That's less than one in ten turning out to be valable NHLers of note. So basically three-ish kids taken in the second round of each draft will end up top six forward or top four defensemen type of value.
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2011
  24. Bubba88

    Bubba88 Toews = Savior

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    you could have added the drafts from 2002 - 2005 too
     
  25. Bryanbryoil

    Bryanbryoil English is Overrated, I Score Goals

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    Agreed, I hate the argument of "well so and so was drafted at #6, here's the guys at #6 the last 15 years, #6 is traditionally a crappy pick". How about you offer a team with the #7 or #8 pick straight up for #6, does anyone honestly believe that they wouldn't accept it because #6 may not have had that great of a history? :help:
     

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