The 31st pick - value and history

oilsands

dirty oil, comin 4 u
Jul 6, 2007
5,073
58
Halland
I've seen articles that state that the 31st overall pick is highly coveted. After the first round is done, the draft world is a bit shaken up by surprise picks, rankings, and players falling/being taken early. The 31st overall gives a GM and his team an entire night to re-evaluate the situation, see who is left, and check in with other scouts.

The GM's picking late in the first round can be scrambling to make their pick, and may not get their guy - whereas #31 can be planned out and methodical. However, history shows us that not much has come from the 31st pick overall.

What are your thoughts?
 

Beerfish

Registered User
Apr 14, 2007
19,513
5,665
I agree, this is certainly the case in the NFL draft as well. There will often be a 'I can't believe this guy is still there, we had him rated 12th overall' type moment for a lot of teams, especially in this draft. It all comes down to the team with the pick (Oilers). If they have that same quote then they will simply make the pick, if not it will be up for grabs.

If the Oilers have any designs on moving up in the draft then this pick will most likely be in play.
 

R S

Registered User
Sep 18, 2006
25,468
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2nd round picks are all very valuable, as much as people might laugh at that. People joke about the Leafs and how they ended up getting late 1st rounders and that those are basically throw away picks. They aren't.

Even in the draft guide edition of the hockey news they profile the 2nd round and touch on the trending notion that 2nd round picks could be the hottest commodity right now among GM's.
 

Brodeur

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
26,119
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San Diego
However, history shows us that not much has come from the 31st pick overall.

What are your thoughts?

The first round being separated from the rest of the Draft only started happening in 2007. So there's not a ton of history there, at least in the context of having an extra night to ponder the decision.

I've seen articles that state that the 31st overall pick is highly coveted. After the first round is done, the draft world is a bit shaken up by surprise picks, rankings, and players falling/being taken early. The 31st overall gives a GM and his team an entire night to re-evaluate the situation, see who is left, and check in with other scouts.

The GM's picking late in the first round can be scrambling to make their pick, and may not get their guy - whereas #31 can be planned out and methodical.

You get a slight advantage having #31 if your intention is to trade it. But the team picking #28 also has all day to work out potential trade scenarios as well. After attending the Draft live last year, there is a ton of lag between picks. And it's not like the team picking #28 only starts fielding trade offers when they're on the clock.

But realistically, teams spend months putting together their lists and having to wait a night shouldn't alter things. Also a first rounder comes with some insurance in that a team can get a compensatory 2nd rounder down the road if the draftee goes unsigned.
 

R S

Registered User
Sep 18, 2006
25,468
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Yes it's true that the 31st overall pick hasn't turn out to be any impact players recently. But, 31st overall in 2008: Jacob Markstrom.

Who isn't an impact player......:laugh:

Not hatin, just saying. I am one of his biggest fans, but he still hasn't proven ****.
 

Freaky Styley

Registered User
Aug 14, 2007
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2nd round picks are all very valuable, as much as people might laugh at that. People joke about the Leafs and how they ended up getting late 1st rounders and that those are basically throw away picks. They aren't.

Even in the draft guide edition of the hockey news they profile the 2nd round and touch on the trending notion that 2nd round picks could be the hottest commodity right now among GM's.

That doesn't really surprise me.. yes, in most cases 1st round picks turn out to be the best players in the draft but the 2nd round is interesting because it's the best of who is left. It is almost like a fantasy draft.. the obvious guys are going to go in the first round but where you win a pool is in the later rounds. So in the draft being able to identify the sleepers or fallers and being to nab them in the 2nd can be a huge part of an organization's success. Our Avs have done pretty well in the 2nd round in recent history so I always like getting a few 2nd rounders
 

R S

Registered User
Sep 18, 2006
25,468
10
That doesn't really surprise me.. yes, in most cases 1st round picks turn out to be the best players in the draft but the 2nd round is interesting because it's the best of who is left. It is almost like a fantasy draft.. the obvious guys are going to go in the first round but where you win a pool is in the later rounds. So in the draft being able to identify the sleepers or fallers and being to nab them in the 2nd can be a huge part of an organization's success. Our Avs have done pretty well in the 2nd round in recent history so I always like getting a few 2nd rounders

Too bad we dont have one this year :rant:
 

Brodeur

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
26,119
15,767
San Diego
Jay Feaster thinks it's worth Chris Gratton.

It was a bad trade by Feaster, but it was made a year before the 2008 Draft. He probably thought he was giving up a pick in the middle of the 2nd round, possibly late in the 2nd round if he thought Tampa would be contending for a division title. The year before Atlanta won the division and Washington hadn't yet broken out.
 

Vinner

Registered User
May 1, 2010
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0
2nd round picks are all very valuable, as much as people might laugh at that. People joke about the Leafs and how they ended up getting late 1st rounders and that those are basically throw away picks. They aren't.

Even in the draft guide edition of the hockey news they profile the 2nd round and touch on the trending notion that 2nd round picks could be the hottest commodity right now among GM's.

That's mostly Leaf hate. Trolling Leaf fans is enjoyed by all fan bases.
 

Joey Moss

Registered User
Aug 29, 2008
36,163
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Yes it's true that the 31st overall pick hasn't turn out to be any impact players recently. But, 31st overall in 2008: Jacob Markstrom.

Since 2008 there's been a few decent players picked there though. I trust the Oilers scouting staff to pick the right player at 31. Last year it was between Marincin and Pitlick and both are doing just fine, expected to be decent NHL players.

There's always going to be someone who falls out of the 1st round, and usually those players turn out pretty good. Amazingly they're hardly ever picked at the 31 spot..
 

zjh

@ZenonHerasymiuk
Jan 24, 2011
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AB88
Especially this year there is so many guys that are bubble players on the edge of the first round.
 

YEGJuniorFan

Registered User
Dec 3, 2009
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Edmonton
there really hasnt been an impact player picked 31st overall in the last ten years (Markstrom could change that), but Derek Roy and Dave Bolland both went 32nd
 

Brodeur

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
26,119
15,767
San Diego
it might be Burke hate. Too lazy to look it up but I think he has traded his 2nd round pick more often than he actually used it to pick someone.

Vancouver
------------
1998 - Artem Chubarov (Burke had just been hired a week before, so it's tough to imagine he had a ton of input on the draft process)
1999 - traded to Avs for coach Marc Crawford
2000 - Had two picks, traded own pick for 2001 pick, traded another for Devils prospect Vadim Sharifijanov
2001 - Had three picks, traded for Drake Berehowsky, traded with Adrian Aucoin for Dan Cloutier, traded for Alex Auld
2002 - Had two picks, selected Kirill Kolstov and Denis Grot
2003 - Marc-Andre Bernier
2004 - Traded for Johan Hedberg

Anaheim
-------------
2005 - Had two picks, drafted Brendan Mikkelson with one, traded the other for Todd Fedoruk
2006 - Had two picks, drafted Bryce Swan with one, traded the other for Jeff Friesen
2007 - Had three picks, drafted Eric Tangradi with one they got by trading down, traded for George Parros (with pick they got for Vitali Vishnevski), traded their own pick in a package for coach Randy Carlyle
2008 - Used own pick in the Pronger trade, traded down twice for picks #35 and #39 and got Nic Deschamps and Eric O'Dell.
2009 - Traded for Brian Sutherby in 2007

Toronto
------------
2009 - Acquired two picks via trade, drafted Kenny Ryan and Jesse Blacker
2010 - Reacquired then used own 2nd in the Phil Kessel trade, acquired a pick for Jimmy Hayes and drafted Brad Ross

Obviously not the greatest array of talent brought in, but the teams getting those 2nd rounders generally didn't draft guys who were much better.
 

Drij

Registered User
Mar 5, 2007
7,335
346
Vancouver
------------
1998 - Artem Chubarov (Burke had just been hired a week before, so it's tough to imagine he had a ton of input on the draft process)
1999 - traded to Avs for coach Marc Crawford
2000 - Had two picks, traded own pick for 2001 pick, traded another for Devils prospect Vadim Sharifijanov
2001 - Had three picks, traded for Drake Berehowsky, traded with Adrian Aucoin for Dan Cloutier, traded for Alex Auld
2002 - Had two picks, selected Kirill Kolstov and Denis Grot
2003 - Marc-Andre Bernier
2004 - Traded for Johan Hedberg

Anaheim
-------------
2005 - Had two picks, drafted Brendan Mikkelson with one, traded the other for Todd Fedoruk
2006 - Had two picks, drafted Bryce Swan with one, traded the other for Jeff Friesen
2007 - Had three picks, drafted Eric Tangradi with one they got by trading down, traded for George Parros (with pick they got for Vitali Vishnevski), traded their own pick in a package for coach Randy Carlyle
2008 - Used own pick in the Pronger trade, traded down twice for picks #35 and #39 and got Nic Deschamps and Eric O'Dell.
2009 - Traded for Brian Sutherby in 2007

Toronto
------------
2009 - Acquired two picks via trade, drafted Kenny Ryan and Jesse Blacker
2010 - Reacquired then used own 2nd in the Phil Kessel trade, acquired a pick for Jimmy Hayes and drafted Brad Ross

Obviously not the greatest array of talent brought in, but the teams getting those 2nd rounders generally didn't draft guys who were much better.

wait what?
 

LaLaLaprise

lalalaprise -twitter
Feb 28, 2002
8,716
1
Halifax, Nova Scotia
I dont really see it having an effect....NHL teams make 1 master draft list and they generally pick the next highest guy left on their list...having a whole night to think about it wont make much of a difference as teams have had hours of meetings in preparing their list.
 

SK13

non torsii subligarium
Jul 23, 2007
32,762
6,382
Edmonton
The "history" of any numbered pick is absolutely meaningless. There is no spectre hanging over the kid who gets drafted in that position, whether or not he's a player depends on him, his skillset and the teams ability to develop him.
 
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rt

The Kinder, Gentler Version
May 13, 2004
97,661
46,827
A Rockwellian Pleasantville
2nd round picks are all very valuable, as much as people might laugh at that. People joke about the Leafs and how they ended up getting late 1st rounders and that those are basically throw away picks. They aren't.

Even in the draft guide edition of the hockey news they profile the 2nd round and touch on the trending notion that 2nd round picks could be the hottest commodity right now among GM's.

Fully developed 2nd rounders of note from 1996-2001(no hype remaining based on "potential".

1996
colin white
matheiu garon
jan bulis
steve begin
matt cullen
cory sarich
dan lacouture

1997
ben clymer
kristian huselius
henrik tallinder

1998
jonathan cheechoo
blair betts
john erskine
ossi vaananen
mike fisher
mike ribeiro
steve moore

1999
alex auld
mike commodore
jordan leopold
adam hall
doug janik
matt carkner

2000
brad winchester
tomas kopecky
kurtis foster
ilya bryzgalov
jarret stoll
andrej lilja
antoine vermette
dan ellis
paul martin

2001
derek roy
tim jackman
fedor tyutin
mike cammalleri
chris thorburn
jason pominville
jason mcclement
peter budaj

Sure, there are a handful of very good players in there. We are talking about a sample of something like, what, 165 picks, or so? Even if you pick out the best seventeen players in the group, there are some duds. That's less than one in ten turning out to be valable NHLers of note. So basically three-ish kids taken in the second round of each draft will end up top six forward or top four defensemen type of value.
 
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Bryanbryoil

Pray For Ukraine
Sep 13, 2004
86,214
34,709
The "history" of any numbered pick is absolutely meaningless. There is no spectre hanging over the kid who gets drafted in that position, whether or not he's a player depends on him, his skillset and the teams ability to develop him.

Agreed, I hate the argument of "well so and so was drafted at #6, here's the guys at #6 the last 15 years, #6 is traditionally a crappy pick". How about you offer a team with the #7 or #8 pick straight up for #6, does anyone honestly believe that they wouldn't accept it because #6 may not have had that great of a history? :help:
 

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